Vistage butler ceo economic summit august 2012 handout

Vistage/Butler CEO Economic Summit August 2012

Make Your Move

Alan BeaulieuITR Economics™

www.itreconomics.com


Duration Forecast Actual

GDP 18 $13.525 $13.332 (‐1.4%)

US Ind Prod. 11 93.1 (12MMA) 93.8 ( 0.8%)

EU Ind. Prod. 11 101.1 (12MMA) 101.2 ( 0.1%)

CA Ind. Prod. 21 96.6 * 4.1% 96.0 ( 0.6%)

Retail Sales 18 $2.116 Trillion $2.106 (‐0.5%)

Housing 17 579 Ths Units 607 ( 4.8%)

Employment 20 141.1 million 139.9 (‐0.9%)

CPI 17 2.9% 3.2%

* End of year 12‐month index estimate

Results for 2011 2


3

US, Indiana and the Great Lakes Annual GSP Growth Rate

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12

U.S. Indiana Great Lakes


4.7%

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

GDP US IP

4

US Industrial Production to Gross Domestic Product

‐14.6%

‐5.3%‐3.1%

‐7.1%

Year‐over‐year Quarter to Quarter (3/12)


5

• Leading indicators pointing up

• Liquidity is not an issue

• Exports are up

• Stimulative monetary policy

• Employment rising (companies right‐sized)

• Banks are lending

• Retail Sales

Recovery


6


7

• Europe’s financial troubles might…

• China’s housing/inflation bubble could…

• Massive Pending Legislation becomes…

• Oil prices could break through $120 …

• USD could lose all credibility causing…

Recession in 2012


Source: The Economist

Federal Reserve Act of 1913 32 pagesGlass-Steagall Act 37Dodd-Frank 848Not rules, but instructions on how to create more regulations and bureaucracies

8


9Total U.S. Public Debt

(% of GDP)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

120.0


10


Phase 1 – Data Preparation

3/12 Rate‐of‐Change

=

100 100

=.

.100 100 10.5%

RawJan‐10 1.4Feb‐10 1.5Mar‐10 1.5Apr‐10 1.4May‐10 1.5Jun‐10 1.3Jul‐10 1.3Aug‐10 1.6Sep‐10 1.6Oct‐10 1.5Nov‐10 1.7Dec‐10 1.6Jan‐11 1.7Feb‐11 1.7Mar‐11 1.7Apr‐11 1.6May‐11 1.7Jun‐11 1.5Jul‐11 1.5Aug‐11 1.9Sep‐11 1.7Oct‐11 1.7Nov‐11 1.9Dec‐11 1.7

3MMT

4.44.44.44.24.24.34.64.84.84.84.94.95.05.05.04.94.74.95.15.35.35.3

12MMT

18.018.318.518.618.819.019.219.419.619.820.020.120.3

12/12

12.7%


=

100 100

=.

.100 100 12.7%

3/12

14.1%13.6%13.2%15.1%13.5%14.1%11.3%11.5%10.1%10.5%

11


Phase 2 – Accumulate the Inputs

‐10

‐5

0

5

10

15

‐40

‐20

0

20

40

60

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

IndicatorSales

Sales

Indicator

12


Phase 3 – Generate the Quantitative Forecast

ITR Long Term Business Cycle Theory News and Market Observations

Leading Economic IndicatorsInternal Trends

13


Output ‐ Deliverables

Accurate ForecastsApplicable Advice

14


US Industrial Production Growth

12/12 annual growth rate

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

15


16

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

3‐Month Moving Average

Real Gross Domestic Product


17Global Industrial Production Indices

12/12 Rates‐of‐Change

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16

4.1 US

3.7 Mexico

2.1 SE Asia

1.6 Japan

0.9 Europe

-1.6 Brazil


182011 Exports from Indiana to the World

Billions of USD

29.4%

24.7%

12.7%

6.0%

5.6%

5.1%

16.5%336‐‐TRANSPORTATIONEQUIPMENT

325‐‐CHEMICALS

333‐‐MACHINERY, EXCEPTELECTRICAL

331‐‐PRIMARY METAL MFG

339‐‐MISCELLANEOUSMANUFACTUREDCOMMODITIES334‐‐COMPUTER ANDELECTRONIC PRODUCTS

All Others


19Unemployment Rates

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12U.S. IN


20Employment – Private Sector

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

Employment Mils of Jobs

Annual Data Trend


Location Quotient: Private employment compared to a base region. The comparison is to the share of jobs, not to the simple number of jobs. E.g. 1.29 means that the city/state has a 29% great concentration of a particular job than is found in the base region.

21Nation to Indianapolis

Location Quotients calculated from Quarterly Censusof Employment and Wages Data

Industry Marion County, Indiana

Base Industry: Total, all industries 1

Natural resources and mining 0.08

Construction 0.98Manufacturing 1.07

Trade, transportation, and utilities 0.99

Information 0.84

Financial activities 1.15

Professional and business services 1.09

Education and health services 1.06Leisure and hospitality 0.88Other services 0.93

Unclassified 0


90

130

170

210

250

290

330

370

-32

-24

-16

-8

0

8

16

'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

MMAR-O-C

5.9

124.208

7.2

22

Indiana Construction Industry Employment

3/1212/12

3MMA 12MMA

Thousands of Units


10

30

50

70

90

110

130

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

MMAR-O-C

12.2

42.733

16.3

23

Indianapolis ‐ Carmel Construction Industry Employment

3/12

12/12

3MMA 12MMA

Thousands of Units


24

Commercial & Industrial Loans at Commercial Banks

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

3/1212/12

Rates‐of‐Change

10.7%


25Delinquency Rates for C&I Loans

-36.9%-42.4%

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

160

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

160

'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

3/12

12/12

3/12 & 12/12 Rates‐of‐Change


26Delinquency Rates on Consumer Loans

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Consumer Loan Delinquency Rate

Consumer Credit Card Delinquency Rate

Percentage Percentage

10 Year Average

10 Year Average

3MMA Data Trends


27Copper Futures Prices

0

100

200

300

400

500

0

100

200

300

400

500

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

Raw

12MMA

Cents per Pound,Data Trends


28Crude Oil Futures Prices

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

RAW

12MMA

84.96

95.09

Light & Sweet $ per Barrel, Data Trends


29

52%49%

45%

57%58%60%60%


30Inflation US and the Midwest

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

104

105

106

'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14U.S. Midwest


00

Soft Landing

31Trends 10

HousingProduction

Medical

New Orders

Soft Landing

Financial

Retail

Wholesale Trade

Prices

ForeignNonresidentialConstruction

Hard Landing


32

US Industrial Production to Chemicals & Products Production

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

ChemicalsUS IP

US IPChemicals



33

US Industrial Production to Information Technology New Orders

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

OrdersIndex

Index

Orders



34

US Industrial Production to Foods Production

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

ProductionUS IP

US IP

Food Production



35

US Industrial Production Index to Fabricated Metal Products Production

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

MetalUS IP

US IP

Metal Production



36

-18

-12

-6

0

6

12

-18

-12

-6

0

6

12

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

PlasticsUS IP

US IP

Plastics

US Industrial Production to Plastics Products Production



37US Industrial Production to Tourism

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

TourismUS IP

US IPTourism



38

Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders w/o Aircraft

3.37.8

$782.5

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

MMTR-O-C

Oct '09

Nov '09

Jul '08

Feb '113/12 12/12

3MMT

12MMT

Billions of $


39

US Industrial Production to ITR Leading Indicator

USIP – 12/12Indicator ‐Monthly

‐14

‐7

0

7

14

21

‐14

‐7

0

7

14

21

'78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16

IndicatorUSIP

USIP

Indicator

US Industrial Production to indicator 9

Correlation: 0.86


University of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

12/12

3/12

-3.6

9.5


40


Chicago Fed National Activity Index

3 Month Moving Average

-4.7

-3.9

-3.1

-2.3

-1.5

-0.7

0.1

0.9

-4.7

-3.9

-3.1

-2.3

-1.5

-0.7

0.1

0.9

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

3MMA

-0.3

41


42

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

Raw

Purchasing Managers Index

Raw Data


60

80

100

120

60

80

100

120

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

Actual

12MMA

94.7

43US Leading Indicator


44Stock Prices Index

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Raw

12MMA

Data Trends


45

2.42.4

$2.109

1.00

1.75

2.50

3.25

4.00

4.75

-21

-14

-7

0

7

14

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

MMTR-O-C

Jul '09

Jan '10

Nov '07

Retail Vacancy Rate 20.1%Net Absorption – pos

Expect increases in rents

Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles

3/123/1212/1212/12

3MMT3MMT12MMT12MMT

Trillions of 82‐84$

Avg household income of $97.1Nation: $122.4 Southwest: $119.4


46

Legal Services Expenditures to Retail Sales excluding Autos

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

Retail SalesLegal

Legal Services

Retail Sales



47

Recreation to Retail Sales excluding Autos (not Deflated)

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

RecreationRetail Sales

Retail Sales

Recreation



48

Retail Sales Excluding Autos to Beer, Wine, & Liquor Stores

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

SalesStores

Liquor Stores

Retail Sales



49

27.6

15.5

0.653

0.2

0.7

1.2

1.7

2.2

2.7

3.2

3.7

4.2

-90

-75

-60

-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

MMTR-O-C

Housing Starts

3/12

12/12

3MMT12MMT

Millions of Units


50Indiana Housing Price Index

Year over Year % Change

100

125

150

175

200

100

125

150

175

200

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

Raw


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-120

-90

-60

-30

0

30

60

'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

MMTR-O-C

4.8

5.019

32.3

3/12

12/12

3MMT12MMT

51Indianapolis Building Permits

Thousands of Units


52US to Indianapolis Median Home Sale Prices

Annual Data Trends

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

IndianapolisUS

US MedianIndianapolis Median

$165.7

$123.2


53

US Industrial Production toPrivate Non‐Residential Construction

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

US IPConstruction

Private Construction

US IP



54

10.6

3.2

23.5

10

25

40

55

70

85

100

115

-125

-100

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

MMTR-O-C

Office Buildings Construction

3/1212/12

3MMT

12MMT

Billions of $


55

14.316.9

42.4

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

-105

-90

-75

-60

-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

MMTR-O-C

Jan '08

Apr '10

Apr '08

Apr '11

Commercial Buildings Construction

3/1212/12

3MMT

12MMT

Billions of $


56

37.2

10.7

85.1

10

35

60

85

110

135

160

185

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

MMTR-O-C

Oct ‘10

Feb '08

Oct ‘10

Dec '09

Power Construction

3/12

12/12

3MMT

12MMT

Billions of $


57

-0.6-1.3

25.6

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

MMTR-O-C

Jan '09

Jun '09

Nov '98

Jun '09

Hospital Buildings Construction

3/12

12/12

3MMT12MMT

Billions of $


58

32.2

22.2

15.9

4

9

14

19

24

29

34

39

44

-75

-60

-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

MMTR-O-C

Private Educational Buildings Construction

3/12

12/12

3MMT12MMT

Billions of $


59

-4.6-4.1

69.5

10

35

60

85

110

135

160

185

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

MMTR-O-C

Public Educational Buildings Construction

3/12

12/12

3MMT12MMT

Billions of $


60

-2.7-5.7

251.1

80

150

220

290

360

430

500

570

-75

-60

-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

MMTR-O-C

Jul '09

Nov '07

Aug '10

Total State & Local Government Construction

3/12

12/12

3MMT12MMT

Billions of $


61

00

A

A

B BC C

DD

Expansion

Recession

Four Phases


Phase Late C ‐ Early B1. Positive leadership modeling (culture turns to

behavior)2. Add Sales Staff and Hire Top People 3. Training programs4. Lock in costs5. Invest in customer market research (know what

they value)6. Judiciously expand credit7. Check distributions systems for readiness to

accommodate increased activity8. Review and uncover competitive advantages9. Improve efficiencies with investment in

technology and software10.Spend $ on new products, marketing, advertising11.Work on “what’s next”

62Phase Management ObjectivesTM


63

Energy

Green

Water

Canada/Exports

Higher Education

Health Care Practices

Food

Pets

Funeral Services

Alcohol

Security

Legal Services (Diversified)

Find a way to business in the “counter‐cyclical” or largely unaffected areas:


64

7 Must Watch Items

Money Supply

Corporate Bonds Rate‐of‐Change

US Leading Indicator

Purchasing Managers Index

Retail Sales

Employment

Nondefense Capital Goods New OrdersAvailable from ITR via ITR Trends Report,

the ITR Advisor, or on the web


65

The Road Ahead(actual results may vary…stay tuned!)

2011 Slower rate of recovery

2012 Ongoing recovery

2013 Flattens out; recession begins

2014 Recession

2015 Growth

2016 Growth

2017 Growth


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If you need the data behind the trends, you can

access that directly too. An annual subscription to

the ITR Trends Report is $895.00.

Trendcast™ is a process by which we show you

where your company is in the business cycle, where

revenues are headed, and which indicators are

important to your company. If you know what

conditions your company is going to be facing next

year, you can make changes now in order to

maximize your revenues and/or profits. We provide

tried and true Management Objectives™ to fit your

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making capital expenditures, or borrowing money,

at the most effective time.

We take your company’s sales data history, convert

it into a rate-of-change format, chart the data

against leading indicators and U.S. market

indicators, analyze the results, and present you with

your own company charts, giving you a view of the

future. We determine which indicators lead your

business and by how many months. A follow-up

phone consultation is included. We make it easy

to keep the charts current from our website.

A Trendcast costs $4500.00. To schedule a

Trendcast, please call Kimberly at 603-796-2500.

Consulting Services: ITR Economics provides a

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years to come. A phone consultation with your

management team is also included in the price

of $4800.00.

Speaking Engagements: We have extensive

experience and have received superlative reviews

giving keynote speeches on economic trends and

our projection of those trends. We also address

smaller groups where the topics discussed are

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times a year to various companies, associations,

and leadership gatherings. We provide these

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The ITR Advisor is ideal for decision makers that

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thinking and analysis and general economic

forecast. At two pages each month, we bring you

what you need to know to effectively manage the

future. An annual subscription to the ITR Advisor

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In-depth, 60-plus page economic report Covers 48 market sectors both national and international Long-term views for key market sectors Detailed forecasts Executive summary "Trends Report at a Glance" summary Management notes with action suggestions Multiple follow-ups via phone with ITR Economics™ analysts Delivered monthly via electronic medium to subscribers

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Vistage butler ceo economic summit august 2012 handout

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