Virtual Worlds Conference 2008 Keynote
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Transcript of Virtual Worlds Conference 2008 Keynote
Where are we?
a path from where we’ve just been to the metaverse
Where are we?
a path from where we’ve just been to the metaverse
Robots on the Job
We think we know what the metaverse looks like.
What does this vision really mean?
A space shown on a screen that allows you to:
• have a more human interaction with other people than via any other communication medium
• share experiences
• easily navigate in 3D & 2D environments
• use many applications: entertainment, shopping, real social networking, events
• innovate new applications that we haven’t thought of yet
• millions of publishers creating compatible environments
• intertwined with the Web and audio devices
Primary Value: Remote presence with other people.Scale: more user time than today’s Web.
Vision: As close as we can get to teleporting and the technology to build valuable applications.
PROBLEM:
REQUIRES
VISIONTechnology
WE HAVETODAY
Technology
BIGGER PROBLEM:E
cono
mic
Rew
ard
Technology
While lots of technology can be created when there is continuous economic incentive...
Metaverse
BIGGER PROBLEM:E
cono
mic
Rew
ard
Technology
While lots of technology can be created when there is continuous economic incentive...
Metaverse
Eco
nom
ic R
ewar
d
Technology
...directly building the 3D Metaverse has a very unrewarding development path.
Metaverse
BIGGER PROBLEM:
BIGGER PROBLEM:E
cono
mic
Rew
ard
Technology
...directly building the 3D Metaverse has a very unrewarding development path.
Metaverse
What IS all this mysterious missing technology?
(it’s complicated...)
Architecture
Content System
Comm
unication
Navigation
Adoption
Other
Software and feature requirements for a successful Metaverse fall into several categories:
Architecture
Viewerinterface
communication
rendering
Server
Content
Services
Communication,Search...
Could be Web browser
load balancing
accounts
UGC tools
Apps
...
Open and Optimized Protocols
...
Content System
• Content distribution separate from all other systems
• Publish any 0 to 2D content via existing Web infrastructure (video to images to text to data parameters, etc.)
• Deliver content via network, local disk, caching, and edge networks
• Make improved use of hardware acceleration and any rendering engines
• Use of content definition standards
• Separate creation from publishing of content- WYSIWYG, real-time content creation tools
- As-needed content streaming
- Publishing step converting content to an efficient format from editing format
Comm
unication
• Competitively created, embedded communication tools
- similar to Web interfaces to e-mail or chat, the Metaverse will need embedded interfaces to audio, video, and chat
- hardware input for non-verbal communication (expressions; perhaps 3D cameras)
• Interoperate if not embed directly existing systems - phone, skype, IM networks, etc.
• Next generation social networking features
- integration with existing systems
- real-time common interest notification in social surroundings
Navigation
• Semi-automated generation of point-and-click choices for multi-step navigation - more semantic-level navigation
- MMOs and existing kids worlds could improve in this regard
• Easier navigation of spaces via mouse and possibly other input devices
• Search for places, events, applications using
- ontological knowledge
- wisdom of the crowd: tags, learning, collaborative filtering, etc.
Adoption
• Competitive on-ramp experiences created for specific applications/audiences as well as for use by many content publishers
• Move registration into the world
- provide more pre-registration experience
- create a VW version of CAPTCHA
• Quest and help style orientations with NPC’s
- make more open ended what has been done well in the video game industry
Today’s entry experiences into VWs are largely very poor...
Other
• Simple use on living room HD TVs
• Integration with consoles
• Video streams with DRM rendered
• NPCs (non-player characters) controlled via 3rd party services
• Thorough permission tools using age verification, geo-location systems available today
• Recording features and (a)synchronous publication on the Web
• Name space coordination for public spaces (URLs and IDs)
• Data recording and access for commerce, advertising, and reporting
• Integration with many payment methods for virtual & real currencies
• Natural Language content creation, manipulation
• Competitively developed tools for everything from content creation to load balancing to advertising models to event management, etc.
• etc.
Example: Kids’ Virtual Worlds
Digital Kids
Games +Constant Content Updates + G
ames
Virtu
al Goo
ds
(stat
us/s
elf-e
xpre
ssion
)
Currency
+Metaverse
Special Sauce(presence)
+ physical product+ known brand+ retail stores
CompulsionLoop
=
=
PROBLEM:
1. With so many virtual worlds, attention will be divided and hard to get.
2. Competition will rapidly ramp up production costs:- 3d with better graphics- more sophisticated interfaces- content beyond the same flash games
3. Major brands will create VWs as a marketing cost, all but eliminating subscription revenue
4. Advertising revenue will be limited
PROBLEM: The Big Squeeze
Less user time and higher marketing costs
Less Revenue Per User
Much Higher Production Costs
2008
Movie Industry Dynamic
Big Budgets
Occasional Huge Hits
Most hits leverage a brand
by 2010: Many brands will choose to participate within other successful VWs.
Architecture
Content System
Comm
unication
Navigation
Adoption
Other
Some of the innovation toward Metaverse technology will be driven by competition among kids virtual worlds.
Open Question: Beyond 2008, how much of this new technology will be available for use in other applications?
Eco
nom
ic R
ewar
d
Technology
Kids’ Worlds are starting to generate significant new Metaverse technology in 2008.
Metaverse
Most Successful K
ids’ World
s
2007
2008
2009
Eco
nom
ic R
ewar
d
Technology
Companies with long-term focus are starting to fund the direct-build approach.
Metaverse
OpenSim
Eco
nom
ic R
ewar
d
Technology
Metaverse
Linden Lab created a profitable MMO with a few key innovations on the path to the Metaverse (e.g. in-world UGC and streamed content).
Architecture
Content System
Comm
unication
Navigation
Adoption
Other
The Opportunity is to find minimal technology sets that will serve one Metaverse application completely...
Use pieces that exist, that are being created by vendors & open source projects for kids’ worlds, and add to them...
Most Killer Apps require too much progress to be successful in 2008-9.
e.g. Consumer Shopping in virtual environments will eventually be larger than it is on the Web today, but many barriers remain to creating a great experience.
What will realistically bring about the Metaverse?
Answer: An evolution of the Web from
A Platform for:Data publishing andData-driven application
to alsoA Platform for:
Shared experiences andSimulated spaces
Biggest spending across many companies...
2006-7 Second Life2007-9 Kids’ Worlds2009-? Community Web sites:
Social NetworkingDatingFantasy SportsTV Show sitesCelebrity GossipEducationAnything with lots of fansetc.
To Be Continued...
http://blogs.electricsheepcompany.com/sibley/
Monday, April 7th, in search of a technical and business roadmap to the Metaverse: