Virgin tropical forests, loathed plantations and everything in-between: Not seeing the alternatives for the heat and the smoke?

Dpt of Forest Ecology and Management, SLU, Tropical Forestry Group – Professor Anders Malmer

ABSTRACT: The development and future of tropical forest cover and its quality is discussed, from the perspective of REDD. Focus in thediscussion is often on conserving natural forests as opposed to deforestation or conversion to (forest) plantations that contain less carbon.However, most forests are already affected by man or degraded to various extents and evidence is accumulating that just conserving orleaving them often leads to continued degradation in carbon storage, biodiversity, water conservation and other environmental services.

The potential width of the concept of REDD is both its strength and its Achilles’ heel. Few things are more generalised than the problems ofmanaging and conserving tropical forests. In contrast, the reality of the nature, status and role of forests and their place in nationaldevelopment is extremely varied and country-specific. This presentation purports that conservation of virgin forests is not the largestpotential for REDD, but rather a broad range of forests used and affected in various ways. Conserved forest is, and will be, very vulnerable,except in well organised societies. On the other hand, improved management of more abundant secondary or degraded forests will increasetheir value against deforestation for other uses and improve their carbon content, water conservation, biodiversity etc. With examples anddata from South America and Asia, explanation is given to recent findings that conserved tropical forests in the Amazon have a largerincidence of fire and continued degradation than other types of forest. Examples of the different development and forest managementstrategies in the various Brazilian states of the Amazon are also given.

It is concluded that societal readiness (socioeconomic setting which favours investments by local people or other land owners in forests) ispossibly the first criteria for expanding and improving forest sectors, but a “general policy disbelief” in sustainable forest management needsto change. In addition, there is a need for more technical research and development in forest restoration and management of “intermediateman made production forests” and to build understanding of the status in-between the perfect natural forest and the perfect industrialforest plantation.

***DISCUSSION: focused around the increasing attention finally being given to the role of forests now, after considerable time in the policywilderness.

Virgin tropical forests, loathed plantations and everything in-between;

Not seeing the alternatives for the heat and the smoke?

Swedish University of Agricultural ScienceDepartment of Forest Ecology and ManagementTropical Forestry Group – Professor Anders Malmer

What about the title - Contents• Current and future land use change –

tropical forest focus

• Vulnerable conservation and more secure forests under use?

• Fire and the degradation process

• Virgin forests or devastation –defenitions, common language and policy

• Examples of strategies in the Amazon

?

Today it is the forest landscapes in the tropical and near-tropical zone that is changing in

peoples strive for a better life

Looking ahead for land-use:• Now we are >6 billion on the planet, we will be another 3

billion by 2050 – these will mainy live in cities in the tropics?

• Temperature will (only?) increase with 2 degr until 2050?

• Much more food needed• Much more biofuels needed Climate insecurity and very high demand for optimal

production in agriculture & forestry

Stable or % of changing forest cover can be different things in different countries and have very varied background

Latest FRA concentrating on absolute deforestation, also implying where decreased deforestation would be most

significant in a global perspective

FAO Forest Resource Assessment 2010

...and forest cover change is not a globally homogenous process!

Also Sweden has seen long periods of deforestation and degrading soils

Report by Carl von Linné 1749

Forest cover in province of Halland 1650 – 1920 (Carl Malmström, 1939)

C:a 1650 C:a 1700 C:a 1850 C:a 1920

grazing broadleafed forest coniferous forest& agriculture

Insecurity in conservation for REDD

• ”In tropical forest countries, the allocation or effort between plantation silviculture and reduction of deforestation would be influenced by the stringency of requirements regarding certainty.”

Philip M. Fearnside, INPA, Manaus, 2000

• Clearly illustrated 10 yrs later for the Aamazon

Increased fire trend in landscapes with forest conservation 2000-2007 in the Amazon

• A larger increase of fire in land with decreasing deforestation than in land with increasing deforestation

Aragão and Shimabukuro in Science June 2010

Many fires with expanding agriculture and with forests in mixed landscapes

• Large increase in fire irrespective of type of agriculture established

• Fire incidense remain high in landscapes with less managed/intensive land use irrespective of fraction used

Aragão and Shimabukuro in Science June 2010

Similar preliminary observations in Guatemala

• More frequent fire in conserved forest than in managed forests

• One fire often leads to another one on the same land and vegetation/carbon show a deteriorating trend

4321

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

04321

Lowland

Fire history

Carb

on/h

ecta

re

Mountain

144,344

371,348

61,053

216,254211,254

347,223

Panel variable: Stratum

Carbon Desity in Different Strata

1: non affected, 2: >10years ago, 3: 5-10 years ago, 4: 0-5years ago

Steffen Lackman, MSc thesis in prep

This is how landscapes commonly appear todayDynamic mosaics of multiple extensive land uses with or without trees

The forest has a marginal value in the extensive landscape use

Open and fragmented forests are much more fire prone than old natural forests

Mans’ memory is short – now > 10 yr since the last severe El Niño droughts and fire is marginal on the agenda...

Natural forests with logging gaps and secondary forests are more prone to fire because they dry out even with annually occurring short dry periods (weeks)

Explains high fire incidense in forest remaining even after hold in deforestation

In longer droughts (months) with strong El Niño events the regional fire effects are catastrofic (eg. SE Asia, C America and the Amazon)

Once burned, the new secondary vegetation is even more fire prone and fire is soon repeated and so on...

Part of conceptual model on fire risk and land degradation, Malmer et al., 2005

”Yesterdays loss can be tomorrows’ gain – degraded, deforested and degraded areas can be restored for a

multitude of benefits...” (World Resources Institute)

Sandewall et al., Ambio in press

The old forest is gone for a long time as is the secondaty forest increasingly.

But in the villages the families economies are growing with a growing market for pulp- and fire wood.

Vietnam is a country with increasing forest cover

Defenitions, common language and policy

• Strong northern/western opposition againstuse (logging) of humid tropical forests from the 1980’ies

• Later recognition that development in abroad sense leads to deforestation

• Today in Sweden; deforestation = devastation (avskogning = skövling, Wikipedia)(forest disturbance = devastation, national media)

i.e. Also a vague or very varying societal appreciation of the problems which may lead to skewed policy development on suitable strategies for poor southern countries?

”Inappropriateness of forest management” and identification of other aspects (eg.

Governance) as limiting has been leaving technical development in the south behind?

• In the north technical development is leading for commersial and industrial life

• Equal values to other benefits of forests has not come into legislation until 100 yrs after commersial forestry and when the landscape is already ”industrialized”

• In the south industry themselves have been leading technical development, resulting in clonal plantation forestry the only viable alternative to often failing community forest initiatives

• Options for the poorer land owners/users are often urbanisation, destructive charcoal production or insecure new markets for NTFP’s and tourism

Examples of strategies from the Brazilian Amazon

Examples of strategies from the Brazilian Amazon

The Amazon state

1.54 milj km2 of forest – 92 % undisturbed

52 % of forests in conservation (Nature or Ethnic)

Most people live in Manaus (70 %) –-an industrial city in the forest without forest based industry

Forest strategy remain at tourism, conservation and ethnic reserves

Forest police to curb illegal logging and illegal land immigrants

The state of Mato Grosso

The state of Mato Grosso

28 % of 900 000 km2 intensive agiculture converted from forests (soya, maize & cotton)

29 % pastures and 38 % ”other forest” (pastures – secondary forests – primary forests)

5 % protected land (2009) and ongoing riparian forest restoration

Strategy for agribusiness to grow 50 % in 20 years and to conserve remaning primary forests

Unused pastures and secondary forests seen as potential for development but not a main priority

Bilateral ”REDD” agreement with the state of California, USA

The state of Acre

1000 km from Manaus and 500 km from La Paz and Lima92 % out of 154 000 km2 is forest55 % in protected areas30 % target for agriculture and forestrySmall scale agriculture (micro loans)Sustainable logging, rubber and tourism in thew same forestsActive and promoted research on additional products from forests

Vast areas with large potensial for forests or trees in the landscapes

Many types to suit landscapes and peoples needs

Common generalisations does not hold for the jiggzaw puzzle that has to be laid

Many more kinds of forests and trees in the landscape today, but with varying technical backing

(FAO’s definitions)

How do we fit suitable systems to local ecology, peoples needs and governance?

Thank you

Anders.Malmer@sek.slu.se