Venture Design Crash Course Solving the Right Problem

140
 Copyright 2014 Cowan Publishing Venture Design Crash Course COWAN+ Solving the Right Problem

Transcript of Venture Design Crash Course Solving the Right Problem

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Copyright 2014 Cowan Publishing

VentureDesignCrash

Course

COWAN+

Solving the RightProblem

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Copyright 2014 Cowan Publishing

ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

ABOUT ME

Entrepreneur (5x)Intrapreneur (1x)

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Copyright 2014 Cowan Publishing

ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

ABOUT ME

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ABOUT ME

www.alexandercowan.com

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Personas

IT’S A PROCESS

Some techniques are more effective than others.

But they all require substantial, consistent exertion.

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SCALE-FRIENDLY VS. INNOVATION-FRIENDLY

ScaleFriendly

Innovation

Friendly

$ !?

? ! ? ? ?

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SCALE-FRIENDLY VS. INNOVATION-FRIENDLY

Learn FirstScale Second

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DOUBLE DIAMOND MODEL OF DESIGNFinding the Right

PROBLEMFinding the Right

SOLUTION

time

      a       l       t      e      r      n      a       t       i     v      e      s

divergence convergence divergence convergence

source: adapted from ‘The Design of Everyday Things’

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CRASH COURSE?

More Explanation vs. Workshop

More Homework vs. Workshop

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THINK    SEE

FEEL DO

PERSONAS

Who?

X

PROBLEMSCENARIOS &ALTERNATIVES

What?

VALUEPROPOSITIONS& ASSUMPTIONS

What if?

!

USERSTORIES &PROTOTYPES

How?

Scale?

Pivot?

PRODUCT &PROMOTION

 / 

CUSTOMERDISCOVERY &EXPERIMENTS

Tell me…?

THE VENTURE DESIGN PROCESS

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THE VENTURE DESIGN PROCESS (IN REVERSE)

!USERSTORIES &PROTOTYPES

Did the implementationdeliver on the story?

PRODUCT &PROMOTION

 / 

CUSTOMERDISCOVERY &EXPERIMENTS

How did thecustomer/userreact?

VALUEPROPOSITIONS& ASSUMPTIONS

!

Was theimplementedstory relevant tothe proposition?

X

PROBLEMSCENARIOS &ALTERNATIVES

Is problemrelevant? Is thepropositionbetter vs.alternatives?

THINK    SEE

FEEL DO

PERSONAS

Do weunderstand thisperson? Whatmakes themtick?

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THINK    SEE

FEEL DO

PERSONAS

Who?

X

PROBLEMSCENARIOS &ALTERNATIVES

What?

VALUEPROPOSITIONS& ASSUMPTIONS

What if?

!

USERSTORIES &PROTOTYPES

How?

Scale?

Pivot?

PRODUCT &PROMOTION

 / 

CUSTOMERDISCOVERY &EXPERIMENTS

Tell me…?

THE VENTURE DESIGN PROCESS

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ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

WHY IS DESIGN THINKING HARD?

Design Thinking

Now

Survival

Then

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Empathy Creativity

DESIGN THINKING

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ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

DESIGN THINKING- APPLICATIONS

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Entry1

Urinate as they go2

Edges preferred3

Speedy4

PB > cheese5

Empathy

DESIGN THINKING- APPLICATIONS

ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

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Check & Repair

UV Validation

Relevant Placement

A Better Mouse Trap

Powered by Better Bait

Creativity

1

2

3

4

5

DESIGN THINKING- APPLICATIONS

ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

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DESIGN THINKING- PERSONAS

Personas Problem Scenarios

Alternatives

Your Value Propositions

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DESIGN THINKING- PERSONAS

ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

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DESIGN THINKING- PERSONAS

ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

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NOT A GOOD PERSONA

• Women

• Age 28-45

• Has kids• Socialize with other mom’s

• Online with Facebook

• 86% said they’d like to be more

organized

• 70% said they’d use anapplication that organizes them

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• Women

• Age 28-45

• Has kids• Socialize with other mom’s

• Online with Facebook

• 86% said they’d like to be more

organized

• 70% said they’d use anapplication that organizes them

NOT A GOOD PERSONA

Bullet points are almostnever vivid or detailed

Stock photo- not real

This is a hugepopulation- not exact

These responses are ‘fake

actionable’- survey responseslike this are unreliable

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THE ART OF CUSTOMER DISCOVERY

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02 DIAGNOSING USER NEEDS & PROBLEMS

The twin anti-poles of design failure

Doing preciselywhat the user asks

Assuming you know what’sbest and ignoring the user

  !   "  #    $   %

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A BETTER PERSONA

Mary is a mom by choice. She had a successful career in accounting,

but welcomed the opportunity to be a stay at home mom. She loves it.

But it’s not like having kids purged her creative, social instincts. She

wants to connect, she wants to learn, she wants to interact. Being a

mom is a job and she wants to do it well. That means corresponding

with other mom’s on child education and keeping track of what works.

She posts to Facebook at least twice a week and responds to other

moms’ items more often than that.

She has a few blogs and publications she reads regularly…

Mary the Mom

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A BETTER PERSONA

the use of a first name helpsw/ vividness (a little)

these full sentences look like agood start towards something

vivid and detailed

this is a real photo of arelevant person taken with an

iPhone in the real world

Mary is a mom by choice. She had a successful career in accounting,

but welcomed the opportunity to be a stay at home mom. She loves it.

But it’s not like having kids purged her creative, social instincts. She

wants to connect, she wants to learn, she wants to interact. Being a

mom is a job and she wants to do it well. That means corresponding

with other mom’s on child education and keeping track of what works.

She posts to Facebook at least twice a week and responds to other

moms’ items more often than that.

She has a few blogs and publications she reads regularly…

Mary the Mom

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VA 

RI 

E D

ivid

eal

ctionable

dentifiable

xactetailed

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EXERCISE- PERSONA CREATION

Mary the Working Mom

Susan the Stay-at-Home Mom

Douglas the Dad

Nathan the Nanny

Ivan the Infant

List at least 3 personas

(4 min)

use 1 index card/ persona

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A LITTLE GAME FOR BETTER PERSONA DISCOVERY

Day in the Lifewe look at a few photos for a given persona

you make some guesses about them

there are no right answers BUT

there is a right process: observe and infer

OBJECTIVE: get a feel for what’s real; start to create something vivid

(not a full picture, just snippets)

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OUR CAST

Miguel theMid-Mellenial

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WAKE UP!

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BREAKFAST & HEAD TO WORK

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AT WORK

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AFTER WORK

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PRE-BED

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GEAR

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IF I HAD 3 EXTRA HOURS…

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ABOUT MIGUEL THE MID-MILLENIAL…

What’s his favorite kind of music?

Band/composer?

Where did he buy his last pair of shoes?

What movie did he last see?

What did he drink with dinner last night?

If he had a dog, what kind?

What’s his favorite magazine?

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OUR CAST

Sally theSingle Mom

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WAKE UP!

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WAKE UP!

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GEARING UP FOR THE DAY

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AT WORK

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AFTER WORK

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PRE-BED

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BED

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GEAR

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IF I HAD 3 EXTRA HOURS…

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ABOUT SALLY THE SINGLE MOM…

What’s her favorite kind of music?

Band/composer?

Where did she buy her last pair of shoes?

What movie did she last see?

What did she drink with dinner last night?

If she had a dog, what kind?

What’s her favorite magazine?

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EXERCISE- PERSONA CREATION

Mary the Working Mom (B, U)

Susan the Stay-at-Home Mom (B, U)

Douglas the Dad (U)

Nathan the Nanny (U)

Ivan the Infant (U)

Which are buyers? Users? Both?

Note with a ‘B’ and/or a ‘U’ on the Index Card

(1 min)

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EXERCISE- PERSONA CREATION

(2 min)

Can you think of 5 real examples for each?

Use the back of your index cards

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DISCOVERY & LEARNING: THINK-SEE-FEEL-DO

ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

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EXERCISE- PERSONA CREATION (6 MIN)

For your top person, complete Think-See-Feel-Do

Thinks: Helen thinks the hiring process should be so much better- more systematic, fewer bad hires. Professional

development is something they’ve identified that they want to do better, but the functional managers aren’t engaged

enough to get the whole thing started.

Sees: Helen is at the tail end of every bad hire and sees the damage it does to the employee and company, alike.Helen sees that online learning has rocketed forward in the last few years. If someone wants to learn a specific skill,

there’s a number of high quality options online, many of them free. They just need a way to help employees organize

select into these courses.

Feels: Helen feels like crap whenever they have to let someone go. She hates it. The employee hates it. The manager

hates it. It’s incredibly destructive and de-motivating for everyone involved. Helen would love to be more involved,

more included in functional skills evaluation and improvement. She’s love to have a success story to talk about. Most

HR departments don’t do a whole lot in this area.

Does: Helen’s relatively responsive to new ideas, particularly if someone knowledgeable is willing to come in and talk

about it. If she likes it, she’ll bring it to the functional managers, who are usually the ultimate decision makers since

without their support she can’t get the system online and working. Post-sale, Helen will help keep the program

organized, moving, and otherwise on the functional managers radar. All this is predicated on Helen being equipped

with the right messages, facts, and best practices to make the purchase and use of Enable Quiz effective.

EXAMPLE: HELEN THE HR MANAGER

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DISCOVERY & LEARNING: THINK-SEE-FEEL-DO

ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

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ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

XPROBLEM SCENARIO

DISCOVERY & LEARNING: PROBLEM SCENARIOS

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ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

XWhat job(s) are you doing for

the customer?

What existing need or

behavior are you fulfilling?

PROBLEM SCENARIO

DISCOVERY & LEARNING: PROBLEM SCENARIOS

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ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

?

X

ALTERNATIVE(S)

PROBLEM SCENARIO

DISCOVERY & LEARNING: PROBLEM SCENARIOS

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ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

?

X

If they currently use

spreadsheets, watch them

use it and get a copy of it.

If they currently put notes on the

family fridge, ask about it,

photograph it.

ALTERNATIVE(S)

PROBLEM SCENARIO

DISCOVERY & LEARNING: PROBLEM SCENARIOS

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X

DISCOVERY & LEARNING: PROBLEM SCENARIOS

It’s hard for the HR manager to send good notes oncandidates to the functional manager.

(Too Detailed, A Feature vs. a Product/Venture)

‘Hiring technical talent is difficult.’

(Too Broad, Abstract)

‘Screening technical talent is difficult.’

(Probably About Right)

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EXERCISE- PROBLEM SCENARIOS

Brainstorm Problem Scenario-Alternative-Value PropositionTrios.

ALTERNATIVE(S)?

PROBLEM SCENARIOXProblem: Helen doesn't have a softwareengineering background, so it's hard for her to

screen engineering candidates. She ends up

sending the functional manager too many

unqualified candidates. .

Alternative: She calls references and mostly

ends up taking their word for it.

(5 min.)

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ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

YOUR VALUE PROPOSITIONS !

ALTERNATIVE(S) ?

PROBLEM SCENARIO X

DISCOVERY & LEARNING: PROBLEM SCENARIOS

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ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

X

Are they better enough than the

alternative(s)?

!

?

YOUR VALUE PROPOSITIONS

ALTERNATIVE(S)

PROBLEM SCENARIO

DISCOVERY & LEARNING: PROBLEM SCENARIOS

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EXERCISE- VALUE PROPOSITIONS

Add Value Propositions toyour top Problem Scenario +Alternative Pairs 

YOUR VALUEPROPOSITIONS!

ALTERNATIVE(S)?

PROBLEM SCENARIOX

(3 min.)

Problem: Helen the HR Manager doesn't

have a software engineering background, soit's hard for her to screen engineering

candidates. She ends up sending Frank the

Functional Manager too many unqualified

candidates.

Alternative: She calls references and mostly

ends up taking their word for it.

Value Proposition: New ability for meaningfulscreening of technical candidates, increasing

% of successful hires and lowering Frank the

Functional Manager's workload on recruiting.

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… and they have a certain

PROBLEMS(S) …

… where they’re currently using

certain ALTERNATIVE(S) …

… and I have a VALUEPROPOSITION that’s better enough

than the alternatives to cause the

persona to act (purchase, use, etc.).

A certain PERSONA exists…

AND NOW THE PRODUCT HYPOTHESIS

!

?

X

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EXERCISE: YOUR PRODUCT HYPOTHESIS

… and they have a certain

PROBLEMS S  …

… where they’re currently using

certain ALTERNATIVE(S) …

… and I have a VALUE

PROPOSITION that’s betterenough than the alternatives to

cause the persona to act

(purchase, use, etc.).

A certain PERSONA exists…‘HR and functional managers are in charge oftechnical hires

and they struggle to effectively screen fortechnical skill sets, making the hiring processslower and more labor intensive andproducing worse outcomes than they shouldreasonably expect.

Currently they implement a patchwork ofcalling references and asking a few probingquestions.

By offering an easy, affordable, lightweighttechnical quizzing solution, Enable Quiz canacquire and retain these customer personas,delivering material value.’ (4 min.)

Enable Quiz example:

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THE BUSINESS MODEL CANVAS

!"#$&'() #$*#+,-$,. /-.,( 0", 1(,20#3, 1'44'-$500(#6/0#'-78"2(, 5*#), 9:; <-='(0,. >#+,-$,: !' 3#,&2 +'=? '@0"#$*#+,-$,A 3#$#0 "00=BCC

+(,20#3,+'44'-$:'(DC*#+,-$,$C6?7$2C9:;C '($,-. 2 *,00,(0' 1(,20#3, 1'44'-$A EFE 8,+'-. 80(,,0A 8/#0, 9;;A 82- G(2-+#$+'A 12*#@'(-#2A HIE;JA <85:!", 0,4=*20,$ ",(, 2(, 42., 232#*26*, '- 0", $24, 11 *#+,-$, 0,(4$ 2$ 0", '(#D#-2* +2-32$:

!"#$% '%()*%)(+,

!-+.

/0(%1+($,

!-+.

 2*%343%3+$,

!-+.

5+$#)(*+$,

!5+4+1)+ '%(+06$,

!")$%#6+(

5+70%3#1$839$,

!"8011+7$,

!:07)+

/(#9#$3%3#1$,

!")$%#6+(

'+;6+1%$,

ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

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SEGMENT TO VALUE PROPOSITION MAPPING

!"#$&'() #$*#+,-$,. /-.,( 0", 1(,20#3, 1'44'-$500(#6/0#'-78"2(, 5*#), 9:; <-='(0,. >#+,-$,: !' 3#,&2 +'=? '@0"#$*#+,-$,A 3#$#0 "00=BCC

+(,20#3,+'44'-$:'(DC*#+,-$,$C6?7$2C9:;C '($,-. 2 *,00,(0' 1(,20#3, 1'44'-$A EFE 8,+'-. 80(,,0A 8/#0, 9;;A 82- G(2-+#$+'A 12*#@'(-#2A HIE;JA <85:!", 0,4=*20,$ ",(, 2(, 42., 232#*26*, '- 0", $24, 11 *#+,-$, 0,(4$ 2$ 0", '(#D#-2* +2-32$:

!"#$%&

!"#$%'

!"#$%(

)*+$,-+%&

)*+$,-+%'

)*+$,-+%(

 ./$010$2%&

 ./$010$2%'

 ./$010$2%(

3-#"4+/-%&

3-#"4+/-%'

3-#"4+/-%(

3-1-,4-%&

3-1-,4-%'

3-1-,4-%(

3-5*$0",#607%&

3-5*$0",#607%'

3-5*$0",#607%(

!6*,,-5%&

!6*,,-5%'

!6*,,-5%(

)+"7"#0$0",%&

)+"7"#0$0",%'

)+"7"#0$0",%(

8-9:-,$%&

8-9:-,$%'

8-9:-,$%(

ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

Sort personasand value

propositions in

priority order for

focal clarity

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RECOMMENDED NEXT STEPS

“Homework” (details: bit.ly/hi-wslab)1. Draft a working set of personas

2. Draft a working set of problem scenario-alternative-value proposition trios.

3. Organize the above in priority order on the Business Model Canvas4. Finish a working product hypothesis and positioning statement.

GOOGLE DOC TEMPLATE: http://bit.ly/venturetemplate

RESOURCES: bit.ly/vdesign

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PEER PRESENTATIONS PREP!

(4 min.)

For [target customer] who [statement of the need or opportunity], the

[product name] is a [product category] that [statement of key benefit/ 

key reason to buy]. Unlike [primary alternative], our product [statement

of primary differentiation].

For [hiring managers] who [need to evaluate technical talent], [Enable

Quiz] is a [talent assessment system] that [allows for quick and easy

assessment of topical understanding in key engineering topics]. Unlike

[formal certifications or ad hoc questions], our product [allows for

lightweight but consistent assessments of technical talent].

EXAMPLE

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As

Presenter

As

Audience1) What is this? (Use positioningstatement)2) Who is the persona? What kind of shoesdo they wear?3) What problem scenario(s) are you

looking at? What alternatives does thepersona use now?4) What’s your value proposition?5) What’s your product hypothesis?6) What do you need to learn more about?

- Focus on the process; avoid editorial- Ask a lot of questions- Think about it like an investor

EXERCISE: PEER PRESENTATION

(5 min./ each)

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STORYBOARDING: ORIGINS

copyright Fred Moore & Disney Pictures

ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

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Personas

STORYBOARDING EXAMPLE

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Personas

STORYBOARDING EXAMPLE

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Copyright 2014 Cowan PublishingCopyright 2014 Cowan Publishing

ENABLE QUIZ: EXAMPLE PROBLEM SCENARIOS

X

Helen the HR Manager

“It’s hard for me to screen ontechnical skill sets and I end up

sending Frank unqualifiedrecruits.”

Frank the Functional Manager

“I have limited time and I don’twant to be a jerk. It’s hard to

screen for all the relevanttechnical skill sets.”

PERSONA

PROBLEM

SCENARIO

- Call references

- Take their word for it

- A few probing questions

- Take their word for it?ALTERNATIVE(S)

!VALUE 

PROPOSITIONS

New ability for meaningfulscreening of technicalcandidates, increasing % ofsuccessful hires and loweringFrank’s workload on recruiting.

Less time doing interviews, andbetter hires sooner.

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STORYBOARDING A PROBLEM SCENARIO

AFTER

BEFORE

BEFORE 

(using the

Alternative)

AFTER 

(with the Value

Proposition)

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STORYBOARDING A PROBLEM SCENARIO

Before

After

Trigger?

How does the

problem scenario

initiate?

Action?

How is the

alternative

executed?

Reward?

How well is the

persona gratified?

+

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STORYBOARDING A PROBLEM SCENARIO

} }   }1 Panel

StoryboardArea

Notes 

AreaOptional notes here to

supplement your storyboard

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EXERCISE: BEFORE AND AFTER BOARDS

Using the squares, create a before and then afterstoryboard- 3 panels each

BEFORE  

(using theAlternative)

AFTER  

(with the ValueProposition) (10 min.)

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DESIGN THINKING- USING PERSONAS

Personas Problem Scenarios

Alternatives

Your Value Propositions

SELLINGSTUFF

 

Who’s buying?

 

Where?

 

Why?

Who are weselling to?

Where do wereach them?

With what

proposition?

MAKINGSTUFF

What does theuser actuall do?What does theuser most want?

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4 TYPES OF LEAN HYPOTHESES

ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

PERSONAHYPOTHESIS

PROBLEMHYPOTHESIS

VALUEHYPOTHESIS

CUSTOMER CREATIONHYPOTHESIS

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PERSONA HYPOTHESIS

ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

Does this person exist?

Can you identify them?

Do you understand them really well?

What do they think-see-feel-do in your area?

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PROBLEM HYPOTHESIS

ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

Have you identified a discrete problem/need?

How important is it to the target persona(s)?

What alternatives do they use today? How?

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VALUE HYPOTHESIS

ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

How much better than the best alternative is your

product?

How obvious is that to the customer?

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VALUE HYPOTHESIS

ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

‘We tried a few things with AdWords and landing

pages, but the results weren’t great.’ 

What happens when you try the

same thing out in the real

world? Search is a good way to

connect with existing demand

but not necessarily learn about

its fundamentals.

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CUSTOMER CREATION HYPOTHESIS

ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

How will you get the customer’s: attention, interest,

desire, action, onboarding, retention?

How will you know if it’s working?

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CUSTOMER CREATION HYPOTHESIS

ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

Most of these results are pretty

definitive.

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THINK    SEE

FEEL DO

PERSONAS

Who?

X

PROBLEMSCENARIOS &ALTERNATIVES

What?

VALUEPROPOSITIONS& ASSUMPTIONS

What if?

!

USERSTORIES &PROTOTYPES

How?

Scale?

Pivot?

PRODUCT &PROMOTION

 / 

CUSTOMERDISCOVERY &EXPERIMENTS

Tell me…?

THE VENTURE DESIGN PROCESS

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THE STARTUP: THEN AND NOW

Five Year

Plan

Then

!"#$$$#$$$

$

"#$$$#$$$

&$#$$$#$$$

&"#$$$#$$$

'$#$$$#$$$

'"#$$$#$$$

($#$$$#$$$

("#$$$#$$$

)$#$$$#$$$

)"#$$$#$$$

'$&' '$&( '$&) '$&" '$&* '$&+ '$&, '$&- '$'$

./0/12/

345/16/

3789:;

Lean

Management

Now

6.a PIVOT

experiments

disprovehypothesis

01 IDEA!

02 HYPOTHESIS

03 EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

04 EXPERIMENTATION

05 PIVOT OR PERSEVERE?

6.b PERSEVERE

i

i

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EVIDENCE-BASED INNOVATION VIA ‘LEAN STARTUP’

Do I have real evidence from my buyerthat this is compelling?

01 IDEA!

 What are the key assumptions requiredto make this business work?

02 HYPOTHESIS

 How do I definitely prove or disprove theassumptions with a minimum of timeand effort?

03 EXPERIMENTAL DESIG N

 04 EXPE RIM ENTATION

 

Am I reacting or am I focused onvalidating my pivotal assumptions?

‘Pivot or persevere?’

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EVIDENCE-BASED INNOVATION VIA ‘LEAN STARTUP’

Do I have real evidence from my buyerthat this is compelling?

01 IDEA!

 What are the key assumptions requiredto make this business work?

02 HYPOTHESIS

 

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… and they have a certain

PROBLEMS(S) …

… where they’re currently using

certain ALTERNATIVE(S) …

… and I have a VALUEPROPOSITION that’s better enough

than the alternatives to cause the

persona to act (purchase, use, etc.).

A certain PERSONA exists…

THE PRODUCT HYPOTHESIS

!

?

X

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EVIDENCE-BASED INNOVATION VIA ‘LEAN STARTUP’

How do I definitely prove or disprove theassumptions with a minimum of timeand effort?

03 EXPERIMENTAL DESIG N

 

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ASSUMPTIONS: ORGANIZED AND PRIORITIZED

Priority Key Assumption Needs Proving? Experimentation

1[A key assumption about thebusiness]

[Whether it needsproving

[Experiment toprove or disprove]

1

Hiring managers wouldprefer a lightweight quiz appover calling references andad hoc probing.

Yes

* Customer interviews on problemscenario* Value testing through ‘minimumviable product’

2Managers want to be able toadd their questions as well

Yes* Show prototypes with choices* Test in beta

2 Parents have smart phones No n/a

Focus on strategic,pivotal assumptions

 

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FOCUS AND THE LEAN STARTUP

Crossing t’s

Dotting i’s

Doesn’t matter unless ithelps prove (or disprove)

your pivotal assumptions

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FOCUS AND THE LEAN STARTUP

Subjectall your

activities +metrics tothat litmus

test.

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4 TYPES OF LEAN HYPOTHESES

PERSONAHYPOTHESIS

ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

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4 TYPES OF LEAN HYPOTHESES

PERSONAHYPOTHESIS

PROBLEMHYPOTHESIS

ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

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4 TYPES OF LEAN HYPOTHESES

PERSONAHYPOTHESIS

PROBLEMHYPOTHESIS

VALUEHYPOTHESIS

ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

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4 TYPES OF LEAN HYPOTHESES

PERSONAHYPOTHESIS

PROBLEMHYPOTHESIS

VALUEHYPOTHESIS

CUSTOMER CREATIONHYPOTHESIS

ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

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4 TYPES OF LEAN HYPOTHESES

PERSONAHYPOTHESIS

ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

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PERSONA HYPOTHESIS- CHECKLIST

  Hypothesis Experiment

! This persona exists (in non-trivial

numbers) and you can identify them.

- Can you think of 5-10 examples?- Can you set up discovery interviews with them?- Can you connect with them in the market at large?

! You understand this persona well. - What kind of shoes do they wear?- Are you hearing, seeing the same things across your discovery

interviews?! Do you understand what they Think in

your area of interest?

- What do you they mention as important? Difficult? Rewarding?- Do they see the work (or habit) as you do?- What would they like to do better? To be better?

! Do you understand what they See in

your area of interest?

- Where do they get their information? Peers? Publications?- How do they decide what’s OK? What’s aspirational?

! How do they Feel about your area of

interest?

- What are their triggers for this area? Motivations?-

What rewards do they seek? How do they view past actions?! Do you understand what they Do in your

area of interest?

- What do you actually observe them doing?- How can you directly or indirectly validate that’s what they do?

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EXERCISE: WHO’S YOUR EARLY MARKET?

1) How do they differ within your existing persona definitions?

Example: At Enable Quiz, they’re startup’s doing lots of hiring

2) How will you locate them?

Example: At Enable Quiz, they’ll read tech rags to see who just got funded.

3) How will they help you transition to your next segment?

Example: At Enable Quiz, via case studies, references, and incented posts on LinkedIn.

Answer each as best you can: ~ 1 min/each

(4 min.)

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EXERCISE: PERSONA DISCOVERY QUESTIONS (5 MIN)

Question Form Examples Questions (‘Enable Quiz’)

Tell me about [yourself in the role of the persona]? - Tell me about being an HR manager?- How did you choose that line of work? Why?- What do you most, least like about the job?- What are the hardest, easiest parts of the job?- I’ve heard [x]- does that apply to you?

Tell me about [your area of interest]? - Do you do screen new candidates? If not, who?- Can you tell me about the last time? What was the trigger?- Who else was involved? What was it like?

Tell me your thoughts about [area]? - How should it ideally be done?- How is it actually done? Why?

What do you see in [area]? - Where do you learn what’s new? What others do?- Who do you think is doing it right?- How did you make your last decision?

How do you feel about [area]? - What motivates you? What parts of it are most rewarding? Why?Tell me about the last time?

- What would it be like in your perfect world?

What do you do in [area]? - Would you show me your interview guide? Example notes? - What

the vetting process was like on the last few candidates?

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KEY TO GOOD PERSONA DISCOVERY

PERSONAHYPOTHESIS

ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

1) Create a level of person-ability and comfort

2) Acclimate them to the idea that you’re not just

wondering about the ‘general picture’

3) Assure them by demonstration that you’re notselling anything or advocating a point of view

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4 TYPES OF LEAN HYPOTHESES

PERSONAHYPOTHESIS

PROBLEMHYPOTHESIS

ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

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PROBLEM HYPOTHESIS- CHECKLIST

  Hypothesis Experiment

! You’ve identified at least one discrete

problem (job, desire, etc.)

- Can you describe it in a sentence? Do others get it?- Can you identify current alternatives?

! The problem is important - Do subjects mention it unprompted in discovery interviews?- Do they respond to solicitation (see also value and customer creation

hypotheses)?!

You understand current alternatives - Have you seen them in action?- Do you have ‘artifacts’ (spreadsheets, photos, posts, notes, whiteboard

scribbles screen shots ?

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EXERCISE: PROBLEM DISCOVERY QUESTIONS

(5 min.)

Question Form Examples Questions (‘Enable Quiz’)

What are the top [5] hardest things about [area of

interest]?

- What are the top 5 most difficult things about making good tech

hires? Why?

How do you currently [operate in area of interest- if

you don’t have that yet]? OR Here’s what I got on

[x]- is that right?

- How do you currently screen for technical skill sets?- Who does what?- How does that work?

What’s [difficult, annoying] about [area of interest]? - What’s difficult about screening technical candidates?- How do you validate they have the right skill set?- How are the actual outcomes? Examples?

What are the top 5 things you want to do better

this year in [general area of interest]?

- What are the top 5 things you want to do better in technical

recruiting and hiring?

Why is/isn’t [your specific area of interest on that

list]?

- Why is/isn’t screening for technical candidates on that list?

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KEY TO GOOD PROBLEM DISCOVERY

PROBLEMHYPOTHESIS

ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

1) Avoid prompting, progressing to it only as alast ditch effort

2) Get them in storytelling mode- focus onspecifics and details

3) Focus on just getting them talking- mind thetime but be careful about interrupting for course

corrections

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EVIDENCE-BASED INNOVATION VIA ‘LEAN STARTUP’

Do I have real evidence from my buyerthat this is compelling?

01 IDEA!

 What are the key assumptions requiredto make this business work?

02 HYPOTHESIS

 How do I definitely prove or disprove theassumptions with a minimum of timeand effort?

03 EXPERIMENTAL DESIG N

 04 EXPE RIM ENTATION

 

Am I reacting or am I focused onvalidating my pivotal assumptions?

‘Pivot or persevere?’

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EVIDENCE-BASED INNOVATION VIA ‘LEAN STARTUP’

 

04 EXPE RIM ENTATION

 

Am I reacting or am I focused onvalidating my pivotal assumptions?

‘Pivot or persevere?’

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4 TYPES OF LEAN HYPOTHESES

PERSONAHYPOTHESIS

PROBLEMHYPOTHESIS

VALUEHYPOTHESIS

ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com

@cowanSF

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VALUE HYPOTHESIS- CHECKLIST

  Hypothesis Experiment

! Your product is better enough than the

alternative to make sales (traffic, etc.)

- You successful execute a (paid?) concierge MVP

or- You successfully pre-sell the product

or- You successfully drive drive sign-up’s online

! Customers will readily perceive this

superiority if you [x]

- (see above)

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TESTING YOUR HYPOTHESIS VIA ‘MVP’

M

VP

inimum What is the fastest,

cheapest way to

validate orinvalidate this

option so we give

ourselves more

options on futuresuccess?

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TESTING YOUR HYPOTHESIS VIA ‘MVP’

M

VPiable Will it give us adefinitive result?

What are the

actionable metrics?

inimum

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TESTING YOUR HYPOTHESIS VIA ‘MVP’

M

VProduct

Does it really

require actual

product? Can we

use alternativebrands, channels?

iable

inimum

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TESTING YOUR HYPOTHESIS VIA ‘MVP’

is not necessarily actual software/product(see concierge MVP)

is a first and foremost learning vehicle …

vs. a project plan

(OK to do those things but always  subordinate them to the learning mission)

vs. a product development project

M

VProductiable

inimum

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THE MVP LITMUS TEST

output !=outcomeIs your MVP driving anextraordinary outcome?

Or is it a vehicle to create output

as usual?

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CASE STUDY: DROPBOX

OPPORTUNITYUnderlying demand and supportinginfrastructure ready for a great file sharingapp.

CHALLENGEBuilding a great cross-platform app.required VC funding. VC’s saw a spacewith lots of existing competitors strugglingto get traction.

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CASE STUDY: DROPBOX

PersonaTom the Techie- early adopter who works on projects that require swapping a lot of files between a

shifting network of collaborators.

ProblemScenario

It’s difficult to share files between a network of collaborators, particularly if they’re: big or numerous or

change a lot.

AlternativesMany existing products, but none of them super compelling and widely adopted.

Also, custom setup’s which work but are cumbersome to set up and maintain.

Value Prop.A file sharing service that truly feels transparent to the user across all major platforms- OSX, iOS,

Windows, etc.

What Minimum Viable Product (MVP)?

That you can bootstrap?

That doesn’t require software at all?

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THE ‘WIZARD OF OZ’ MVP @ DROPBOX

Result: Excellent traction and

conversion to sign-up’s.

Strong validation signal.

Created a synthetic demotailored for early market(techies), promoted it, and

measured email sign-up’s.

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EXAMPLE: ENABLE QUIZ

OPPORTUNITYHiring quality technical talent is critical formany companies, but screening for skillsets is time consuming and awkward.

CHALLENGEThe founding team wants to bootstrapwithout external funding so they need tofocus on a specific technical domain, onethat will get them strong early traction.

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EXAMPLE: ENABLE QUIZ

Persona(s)Helen the HR Manager- responsible for sourcing and screening job candidates

Frank the Functional Manager- hiring manager responsible for acquiring and managing talent

ProblemScenario

Helen: hard to screen for technical skills

Frank: never has enough time for recruiting and doesn’t want to be a jerk during interviews

AlternativesHelen: call references, take their word for it (on skills)

Frank: ask a few probing questions

Value Prop. A lightweight quizzing app that has Helen can use to do quick, effective screening.

What Minimum Viable Product (MVP)?

That you can bootstrap?

That doesn’t require software at all?

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Copyright 2014 Cowan Publishing

THE CONCIERGE MVP @ ENABLE QUIZ

Target Outcome:- They use them

-They want more

- It improves hiring outcomes

Create paper quizzes by handfor positions that subject HRmanagers have open. Give the

quizzes to the HR managers touse.

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CASE STUDY: LEONID SYSTEMS

OPPORTUNITYMajor disruption and new productopportunities among telecom providerswith introduction of voice-over-IP and cloud

communications.

IT systems need to be rethought.

CHALLENGEAs a one-person startup, Leonid had

actionable ideas but not enough resourcesto execute an end-to-end solution.

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CASE STUDY: LEONID SYSTEMS

PersonaChris the CTO- has funding and mandate to transition the business towards hosted services; many

bases to cover

ProblemScenario

IT is the most expensive, most risky area when making changes to the business.

Alternatives1) Place large, risky bets on major new system upgrades. 2) Make small incremental updates (but risk

not keeping pace).

Value Prop.Leonid will offer modular, integration-friendly applications in two critical areas: 1) services provisioning

and 2) end user self-service portals.

What Minimum Viable Product (MVP)?

That you can bootstrap?

That doesn’t require software at all?

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THE CONSULTING CONCIERGE MVP @ LEONID

Started with consulting as a‘concierge’ vehicle to createtactical solutions, evolving to

full-fledged product.

Result: Steady step-wise

growth with consistently better

understanding of key customerproblem scenarios.

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CASE STUDY: ZAPPOS

OPPORTUNITYAn observed problem scenario around thedifficulty of finding the right shoe at localretail and a giant (but nascent) market inonline retail (1999).

CHALLENGEConsumers still in the early stages ofadopting and habituating to online retail.Founder (Nick Swinmurn) wanted to

bootstrap.

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CASE STUDY: ZAPPOS

Persona Sam the shoe-hound- knows what he wants but not where to get it.

ProblemScenario

Sam is unable to find the shoe he wants at local retailers, wasting time and getting frustrated.

Alternatives Possibly mail order or wait until he’s in a bigger market to go to the store.

Value Prop.Make the shoe Sam wants accessible online and make sure he has a great experience so he’ll come

back and not have to think about where to find the shoe he wants anymore.

What Minimum Viable Product (MVP)?

That you can bootstrap?

That doesn’t require software at all?

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THE SALES MVP @ ZAPPOS

Result: It worked and the rest

is history.

Photographed shoes and putthem online to observewhether anyone bought them.

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CASE STUDY: STEALTH PHOTO-SOCIAL STARTUP

OPPORTUNITYLots of exciting things happening in thephoto-social space.

CHALLENGEThe team had several ideas but fewresources.

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CASE STUDY: STEALTH PHOTO-SOCIAL STARTUP

PersonaExisting poster of photos. Personas: Martha the Mom, Pat the Party Planner, Teresa the Teen Social

Butterfly

ProblemScenario

[I want to do something interesting with my photos so that my social graph rewards me with interest and

acclaim]

Alternatives Manually enhance photos, use alternative enhancers/amplifiers like Instagram

Value Prop. [This is something users can do with photos that will generate engaging content for their social graph]

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USER JOURNEY: PHOTO-SOCIAL

ASSUMPTION 

User’s social networkwill like and share theapp’s output

What MVP?

That you canbootstrap?

That doesn’t requiresoftware at all?

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THE CONCIERGE MVP @ PHOTOSOCIAL STARTUP

MVP 

Create the target outputby hand (conciergestyle)

Does anyone care?

ASSUMPTION 

User’s social networkwill like and share theapp’s output

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ABOUT MVP’S AND PRODUCTS IN GENERAL

You have to put the magic inthe software.

(Not the other way around)Concierge and other non-software MVP’s can be prettymagical.

Find 100 people that are reallyinto it and you can probablygrow.

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THE ARCHETYPES

Archetype Notes

Wizard of Oz Show the experience.

Concierge Hand create the user experience.

Sales See if you can sell some.

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EXERCISE: YOUR (CONCIERGE) MVP

Component Notes

What is the experience you want to provide? - What are the preconditions and general steps?

What measurable outcome would validateyour value proposition?

- How will you know if it’s delivering value?- This could be: a) measurably better outcomes b) activitylevels c) follow-on interest

How will you find participants and what are

the core screening/qualification criteria?

- How will you know if the subjects are relevant to your

core hypothesis?

(5 min.)

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CLASS PRESENTATIONS

As Presenter

1) What is it? Use pos. statement.

2) Who is it for? What shoes do they

wear?

3) What problem does it solve?

4) What are your ideas for an MVP?

As Audience

- Focus on the process; avoideditorial

- Ask a lot of questions

- Think about it like an investor

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POINT OF EMPHASIS

You are

the mostimportantpart of the

experiment

Make sureyou’re

learning

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RECOMMENDED NEXT STEPS

“Homework” (details: bit.ly/hi-wslab)1. Draft a working set of personas

2. Draft a working set of problem scenario-alternative-value proposition trios.

3. Organize the above in priority order on the Business Model Canvas

4. Finish a working product hypothesis and positioning statement.

5. Finish a working interview guide to validate your persona and problem hypotheses.

6. Complete at least 5 customer interviews.

7. Draft a working set of assumptions

8. Design your experiments and execute.

GOOGLE DOC TEMPLATE: http://bit.ly/venturetemplate

RESOURCES: bit.ly/vdesign

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FINI

bit.ly/hi-wslabView this deck

bit.ly/vdesignCheck outVenture Design

@cowanSFTwitter!

[email protected] in touch

Use CustomerDiscovery Handbook bit.ly/playent