ValuEngine Weekly:Hewlett Packard,Toll Brothers,Aerospace Stocks,Awards,and Suttmeier

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Transcript of ValuEngine Weekly:Hewlett Packard,Toll Brothers,Aerospace Stocks,Awards,and Suttmeier

Page 1: ValuEngine Weekly:Hewlett Packard,Toll Brothers,Aerospace Stocks,Awards,and Suttmeier

May 23, 2014

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The ValuEngine Weekly is an Investor Education newsletter focused on the quantitative approach toinvesting and the tools available from In today's fast-moving and globalized financial markets, it is easy to

get overloaded with information. The winners will adopt an objective, scientific, independent andunemotional approach to investing. If you are not yet a member of ValuEngine's stock analysis service,

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VALUATION WARNING: Our models find that overvaluation is at levels typically seen when market pullbacks occur. Overvalued stocks now makeup 72% of our stocks assigned a valuation and 29.57% of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. ALL sectors are calculated to be overvalued--eleven by double digits.

MARKET OVERVIEW

Index Started week Ended week 4 day change 4 day change % ytd

DJIA 16490.35 16543.08 52.73 0.32% 0.13%

NASDAQ 4080.33 4154.34 74.01 1.81% -0.29%

RUSSELL 2000 1100.58 1113.87 13.29 1.21% -3.76%

S&P 500 1876.66 1892.49 15.83 0.84% 2.69%

Summary of VE Stock UniverseStocks Undervalued 27.52%

Stocks Overvalued 72.48%

Stocks Undervalued by 20% 8.35%

Stocks Overvalued by 20% 29.57%

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SECTOR OVERVIEW

Sector Change MTD YTD Valuation Last 12-MReturn

P/ERatio

Aerospace 0.30% 0.25% 0.08% 14.42% overvalued 31.49% 19.41

Auto-Tires-Trucks 0.68% -1.10% 2.23% 20.93% overvalued 21.03% 17.01

Basic Materials 0.19% -2.54% 1.43% 4.38% overvalued 0.19% 27.2

Business Services 0.63% -3.09% -3.21% 9.32% overvalued 20.39% 25.75

Computer and Technology 0.52% -0.54% -1.22% 11.44% overvalued 17.92% 29.78

Construction 0.34% -1.95% -2.42% 3.92% overvalued 13.35% 23.18

Consumer Discretionary 0.48% -1.05% -4.33% 10.74% overvalued 16.05% 27.95

Consumer Staples 0.32% 1.30% 1.25% 19.35% overvalued 16.84% 23.17

Finance 0.43% 0.00% 0.66% 10.31% overvalued 6.68% 17.65

Industrial Products 0.31% -2.88% -2.63% 9.66% overvalued 19.58% 22.49

Medical 0.98% 0.30% 3.72% 10.20% overvalued 30.38% 28.92

Multi-Sector Conglomerates 0.35% -0.34% 0.72% 15.46% overvalued 8.46% 18.87

Oils-Energy -0.13% -1.14% 12.11% 15.53% overvalued 20.71% 28.8

Retail-Wholesale 0.75% -1.44% -5.37% 11.13% overvalued 11.85% 24.02

Transportation 0.43% 0.47% 1.92% 19.05% overvalued 23.09% 23.78

Utilities 1.03% 1.23% 3.17% 9.90% overvalued 9.32% 20.38

ValuEngine Newsletters Latest Results

VE Newsletter CurrentMonth Total

S&P500

Last MonthTotal

S&P500

SinceInception

S&P500

Forecast MNS 0.76 0.16 -3.98 2.28 90.44 106.35

Dividend Stock -2.54 0.91 2.23 0.52 18.76 20.81

Small Cap Stock -3.02 0.86 -5.91 0.78 26.48 36.13

View 1.47 0.81 -0.24 0.56 101.10 65.38

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Sector Talk—AerospaceBelow, we present the latest data on leading Aerospace Sector stocks from our

Institutional software package (VEI). These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.

Top-Five Aerospace Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-MRetn(%)

HII HUNTINGTON INGL 97.2 -10.5 74.91

ATK ALLIANT TECHSYS 124.28 -0.17 62.88

SPR SPIRIT AEROSYS 31.85 4.32 50.59

ATRO ASTRONICS CORP 52.96 -18.23 55.44

WAIR WESCO AIRCRAFT 20.47 -0.44 27.94

Top-Five Aerospace Sector Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-MRetn(%)

HII HUNTINGTON INGL 97.2 -10.5 74.91

ATK ALLIANT TECHSYS 124.28 -0.17 62.88

SPR SPIRIT AEROSYS 31.85 4.32 50.59

ATRO ASTRONICS CORP 52.96 -18.23 55.44

WAIR WESCO AIRCRAFT 20.47 -0.44 27.94

Top-Five Aerospace Sector Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-MRetn(%)

HII HUNTINGTON INGL 97.2 -10.5 74.91

ATK ALLIANT TECHSYS 124.28 -0.17 62.88

SPR SPIRIT AEROSYS 31.85 4.32 50.59

WAIR WESCO AIRCRAFT 20.47 -0.44 27.94

ATRO ASTRONICS CORP 52.96 -18.23 55.44

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Top-Five Aerospace Sector Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-MRetn(%)

GD GENL DYNAMICS 114.98 45.37 48.51

ORB ORBITAL SCIENCE 26.35 45.34 46.8

TXT TEXTRON INC 38.08 41.48 39.59

ARTX AROTECH CORP 4.41 39.24 255.65

LDOS LEIDOS HOLDINGS 37.13 35.15 -39.17

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Hewlett Packard (HOQ) is one of the leading global providers of computing and imaging solutions and services for business and home. The company is focused on capitalizing on the opportunities of the Internet and the proliferation of electronic services. Its major businesses include Imaging and Printing Systems, Computing Systems and Information Technology Services

ValuEngine continues its BUY recommendation on HEWLETT PACKARD for 2014-05-22. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that HEWLETT PACKARD has the probability to OUTPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE Company Size and P/E Ratio.

As a bonus to our Weekly Newsletter readers, we are offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our Stock Reports

Read our Complete Detailed Valuation Report on Hewlett Packard HERE.

Page 5: ValuEngine Weekly:Hewlett Packard,Toll Brothers,Aerospace Stocks,Awards,and Suttmeier

What's Hot--AWARDS

ValuEngine.com (VE) is a stock valuation and forecasting service founded by Ivy League finance academics. VE utilizes the most advanced quantitative techniques and analysis available. Our research team continues to develop, test, and improve the VE Stock Valuation Models and econometric models for forecasting stock price movement. In recent years, VE has expanded its research program to include portfolio construction and tracking products. Throughout our history, we have been recognized by a variety of influential and important investment institutions, media, and groups. Some of our awards are detailed here.

BNY ConvergEx Jaywalk—Best Overall Calls 2010-2014 (Four Quarterly Awards)

Jaywalk is ConvergEx’s independentequity research consultancy. Jaywalk has astrong reputation due to its market leadershipwithin the independent research industrycoupled with its expertise and a broad depthof knowledge. Jaywalk helps guideinstitutional investors through today's complexresearch selection process so they can make savvy investment decisions.

ValuEngine has been a key IRP for Jaywalk for many years and via this partnership ValuEngine feeds its stock recommendations, valuations, and forecast data to a variety of Wall Street clients including large banks, hedge funds, and other institutions that recognize the value of unbiased, conflict-free research.

ValuEngine has been a winner of the "Best Overall Calls" award from JaywalkConvergEx on four separate occasions since 2010.

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII)--Guide to the Top Investment Web Sites “Best Valuation Service” 2004, 2007, 2009-Present

James Cloonan, Ph.D., founded AAII in 1978 because he firmly believed that individual investors armed with effective investment education materials and a bit of dedication could outperform the popular market averages. Over thirty years later,

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the 150,000 members of AAII report investment returns that are consistently higher than those of the stock market as a whole.

AAII has recognized ValuEngine'ssuperior stock valuation service andrecommended it to their members onnumerous occasions. AAII Notes that “whileit is easy to look up the current price of astock, determining its true value is a muchmore difficult process.”

ValuEngine has been a winner of the "Best Valuation Site" award from AAII for the pastsix years. Significantly, we are the only fee-based site to win this honor.

Forbes—Best of the Web 2002 through Present

Forbes Magazine, one of the top investment journals in the world, has long recognized ValuEngine's unique approach to stock valuation and forecasting. They note that if individual investors are“looking for a crash course in value investing . . . [ValuEngine offers] the same sophisticated modeling and analysis used by the pros.”

ValuEngine has been a perennial winner of the Forbes “Best of the Web” awards forstock valuation services dating back to 2002.

Suttmeier Says--Commentary and Analysis from Chief Market StrategistRichard Suttmeier

If you have any comments or questions, send them [email protected]

Treasury Yields10-Year--(2.550) A monthly value level is 2.616 with daily, quarterly,annual and semiannual risky levels at 2.422, 2.333, 2.263, 1.837and 1.779.

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30-Year Bond – (3.424) A monthly value level is 3.586 with daily, quarterly, annual and semiannual risky levels at 3.290, 3.305, 3.283, 3.114, 3.107 and 2.624.

Commodities and Forex

Comex Gold –($1294.8) Weekly, quarterly and monthly value levels are $1262.6, $1224.0, $1215.7 and $1170.4 with a daily pivot at $1294.5 and semiannual and annual risky levels at $1710.6, $1747.4, $1818.8 and $1857.1.

Nymex Crude Oil – ($103.84) Monthly and quarterly value levels are $90.39 and $89.40with daily, semiannual and annual risky levels at $104.73, $104.74 and $107.52.

The Euro – (1.3653) Annual, quarterly and semiannual value levels are 1.3382, 1.3185, 1.2642 and 1.2216 with a daily pivot at 1.3626, and weekly, monthly and annual risky levels at 1.3760, 1.4171 and 1.5512.

Major Indices

Daily Dow: (16543) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are 16,365, 16245, 14835and 13467 with a quarterly pivot at 16462, the May 13 all-time intraday high at 16735.51 and semiannual and monthly risky levels at 16860 and 17407.

S&P 500 – (1892.5) Daily, quarterly, semiannual and annual value levels are 1873.5, 1853.5, 1797.3, 1764.4, 1539.1 and 1442.1 with the May 13 all-time intraday high at 1902.17 and monthly risky level at 2006.7.

NASDAQ – (4154) Daily, quarterly, semiannual and annual value levels are 4090, 4039, 3930, 3920, 3471 and 3063 with the March 6 multiyear intraday high at 4371.71 and monthly risky level at 4581.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) – (3651) Daily, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 3612, 3456, 3424, 3078 and 2669 with the March 6 multiyear intraday high at 3738.32, and monthly risky level at 3960.

Dow Transports – (7723) Daily, quarterly, semiannual, and annual value levels are 7873, 7407, 7376, 7245, 6249 and 5935 with the May 22 all-time intraday high at 7938.42 and monthly risky levels at 8361.

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Russell 2000 – (1113.87) Daily and annual value levels are 1081.22, 966.72 and 879.39 with semiannual pivots at 1133.29 and 1130.29, a quarterly risky level at 1169.22, the March 4 all-time intraday high at 1212.82 and monthly risky level at 1261.38.

The SOX – (584.20) Daily, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 572.53, 548.36, 507.19, 490.52, 371.58 and 337.74 with the April 3 multiyear intraday high at 601.40 and monthly risky level at 625.61.

Dow Utilities: (535.20) Quarterly, semiannual and annual value levels are 528.10, 524.37, 504.74 and 497.53, with annual and monthly pivots at 548.70 and 549.73 and the April 30 all-time intraday high at 558.29.

Stock of the Day

Toll Brothers (TOL) – ($34.95) TOLL BROTHERS INC. designs, builds, markets and arrangesfinancing for single-family detached and attached homes in middle and high incomeresidential communities in thirteen states and five regions around the country. The communities are generally located on land Co. has developed, although, due to the poor economic conditions during the early 1990's, Co. has been able to acquire a number of fully approved parcels and often improved subdivisions.

Analysis – Toll Brothers has a Buy rating according to ValuEngine and is 12.62% undervalued with fair value at $39.21 and a one-year price target is $36.21. The daily chart shows rising stochastics with the stock above its 21-day and 200-day simple moving averages at $34.46 and $34.35 with its 50-day simple moving average at $35.12. Annual value levels are $32.49 and $26.82 with semiannual pivots at $33.48 and $35.68 and monthly and quarterly risky levels at $39.73 and $43.43.

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Richard Suttmeier has been a professional in the US Capital Markets since 1972 transferring his engineering skills to the trading and investment world. He earned a Bachelor of Industrial Engineering degree from Georgia Institute of Technology in 1966, and a Master of Science, Operations Research, Systems Analysis degree from Brooklyn Polytechnic University in 1970. Over the years Richard appeared many times in the financial media, on networks such as CNBC, CNN, CNNfn, New York 1, Bloomberg TV and radio, Fox Business, Business News Network in Canada, Wall Street Week with Fortune, Yahoo Finance Breakout, and the Bill Mazer Radio Show. Richard has been frequently quoted in USA Today, The NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Reuters, and The Dow Jones Newswires.

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