Facebook MidasLP Investment Valuation Summary And Strategic Analysis
VALUATION OF SAMPLECO LTD - EquityMaven · disclaimer 3 executive summary 4 valuation process 5...
Transcript of VALUATION OF SAMPLECO LTD - EquityMaven · disclaimer 3 executive summary 4 valuation process 5...
STRICTLY PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL
VALUATION OF SAMPLECO LTD
TABLE OF CONTENTS
DISCLAIMER 3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
VALUATION PROCESS 5
FINANCIAL INFORMATION 6
VALUATION METHODOLOGY 8
VALUATION SUMMARY 10
ANNEXURE 1 - ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES 12
ANNEXURE 2 - DETAILED VALUATION ASSUMPTIONS 18
ANNEXURE 3 - INDUSTRY BENCHMARKING 28
ANNEXURE 4 - GLOSSARY 32
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DISCLAIMER
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARYCO M PA N Y N A M E
SampleCo Ltd
I N DU S TRY ( TH O M P S O N REU TERS BU S I N ES S CL A S S I F I CATI O N )
Household Products (NEC)
CO U N TRY W H ERE M A J O RI TY O F O P ERATI O N S TA K E P L A CE
United States
N U M BER O F EM P L OY EES
65
CU RREN CY - A L L A M O U N TS I N TH I S P RES EN TATI O N A RE S TATED I N
USD - US Dollar
L A S T F I N A N CI A L Y EA R- EN D
28 February 2019
Y EA R O F CO M M EN CI N G BU S I N ES S O P ERATI O N S
2017
VA L U ATI O N REP O RT DATE
30 November 2019
I N C O M E S TAT E M E N T A C T U A L B a l a n c e S h e e tU S D 2 8 F e b r u a ry 1 9 U S D 2 8 F e b r u a ry 1 9 T O TA L A S S E T S E Q U I T Y A N D L I A B I L I T I E SRevenue 47 046 000 Current Assets 15 991 550 Current Liabilities 1 630 289Cost of Goods Sold 4 259 303 Accounts Receivable 10 893 856 Accounts Payable 1 459 918Gross Profit 42 786 697 Inventory 1 567 987 Other current liabilities 45 371Operating expenses (excluding depreciation & amortisation) 36 166 865 Other current assets 180 367 Short-term debt 125 000Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation ("EBITDA") 6 619 832 Cash and cash equivalents 3 349 340 Long-term debt 850 000Depreciation and amortisation expense 676 333 Intangible Assets 141 244 Other long-term liabilities 13 000 000Earnings before interest and tax ("EBIT") 5 943 499 Fixed Assets 1 186 298 Shareholder loans 159 555Interest expense 70 000 Total Liabilities 15 639 844Earnings before tax 5 873 499 Total Assets 17 319 092 Shareholders' equity 1 679 248 Income statement analysis Analysis of working capital and leverageRevenue growth rate 36.3% Accounts Receivable Days (ave) 66 Gross profit margin 90.9% Inventory Days (ave) 129EBITDA margin 14.1% Accounts Payable Days (ave) 116
Current ratio 9.8xTotalDebt/EBITDA 0.1x
VALUATION: EQUITY VALUE (100% SHAREHOLD ING IN COMPANY ) = USD 65 320 589
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VALUATION PROCESS
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Overview
FINANCIAL INFORMATIONINCOME STATEMENT
I N CO M E S TATEM EN T A CTU A L A CTU A L BU DG ET F O RECA S T F O RECA S TU S D - U S Do l l a r F ebru a ry 2 0 1 8 F ebru a ry 2 0 1 9 F ebru a ry 2 0 2 0 F ebru a ry 2 0 2 1 F ebru a ry 2 0 2 2
Revenue 34 518 067 47 046 000 52 691 520 59 541 418 66 984 095Cost of Goods Sold 2 847 943 4 259 303 27 399 590 29 770 709 33 492 047Gross profit 31 670 124 42 786 697 25 291 930 29 770 709 33 492 047Operating expenses (excluding depreciation & amortization) 28 907 135 36 166 865 19 495 862 22 030 325 24 114 274Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation ("EBITDA") 2 762 989 6 619 832 5 796 067 7 740 384 9 377 773Depreciation and amortisation expense 550 700 676 333 948 447 893 121 803 809Earnings before interest and tax ("EBIT") 2 212 289 5 943 499 4 847 620 6 847 263 8 573 964Interest expense 50 000 70 000 70 000 70 000 70 000Earnings before tax 2 162 289 5 873 499 4 777 620 6 777 263 8 503 964 Income statement analysis Revenue growth rate 36.3% 12.0% 13.0% 12.5%Gross profit margin 91.7% 90.9% 48.0% 50.0% 50.0%Operating expenses (excluding depreciation & amortisation) as % of Revenue 83.7% 76.9% 37.0% 37.0% 36.0%EBITDA margin 8.0% 14.1% 11.0% 13.0% 14.0%Depreciation and amortisation as % of Revenue 1.6% 1.4% 1.8% 1.5% 1.2%EBIT margin 6.4% 12.6% 9.2% 11.5% 12.8%Interest cover 44.2x 84.9x
Note: Interest expense is assumed to be equal to budget for the forecast years. This is for illustrative purposes only and has no impact on the valuation.
Note: the income statement assumptions for the last forecast year above, as well as the working capital and capital expenditure assumptions for the last forecast year on the followingpage, are assumed to continue for a further 7 years before the Terminal Value is calculated. It is therefore important that these assumptions are sustainable for the business.
THE REASONABILITY AND ACCURACY OF THE FINANCIAL FORECASTS PROVIDED TO EQUITYMAVEN IS THE MOST CRITICAL COMPONENT INDETERMINING THE VALUATION. THE VALUATION IS DEPENDENT ON THESE FORECASTS BEING MET.
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FINANCIAL INFORMATIONWORKING CAPITAL, LEVERAGE AND CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
W O RK I N G CA P I TA L A N D L EVERA G E A CTU A L A CTU A L BU DG ET F O RECA S T F O RECA S TU S D - U S Do l l a r F ebru a ry 2 0 1 8 F ebru a ry 2 0 1 9 F ebru a ry 2 0 2 0 F ebru a ry 2 0 2 1 F ebru a ry 2 0 2 2
Accounts Receivable 6 073 731 10 893 856 12 224 433 13 813 609 15 540 310
Inventory 1 450 600 1 567 987 9 589 857 8 931 213 10 717 455
Other current assets 462 102 180 367 1 150 783 1 488 535 1 339 682
Accounts Payable 1 241 237 1 459 918 9 589 857 8 931 213 12 726 978
Other current liabilities 101 202 45 371 273 996 595 414 1 004 761
Analysis of working capital and leverage
Accounts Receivable (as % Revenue) 17.6% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2%
Inventory (as % Cost of Goods Sold) 50.9% 36.8% 35.0% 30.0% 32.0%
Other current assets (as % Cost of Goods Sold) 16.2% 4.2% 4.2% 5.0% 4.0%
Accounts Payable (as % Cost of Goods Sold) 43.6% 34.3% 35.0% 30.0% 38.0%
Other current liabilities (as % Cost of Goods Sold) 3.6% 1.1% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%
Accounts Receiveable Days (average) 66 80 80 80
Inventory Days (average) 129 74 114 107
Accounts Payable Days (average) 116 74 114 118
Current ratio 6.3 9.8
Total Debt / EBITDA 0.3x 0.1x
CA P I TA L EXP EN DI TU RE F ebru a ry 2 0 1 8 F ebru a ry 2 0 1 9 F ebru a ry 2 0 2 0 F ebru a ry 2 0 2 1 F ebru a ry 2 0 2 2
Capital expenditure - 550 000 526 915 893 121 1 004 761
Capital expenditure (as % Revenue) - 1.2% 1.0% 1.5% 1.5%
THE REASONABILITY AND ACCURACY OF THE FINANCIAL FORECASTS PROVIDED TO EQUITYMAVEN IS THE MOST CRITICAL COMPONENT INDETERMINING THE VALUATION. THE VALUATION IS DEPENDANT ON THESE FORECASTS BEING MET.
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PRIMARY APPROACH SECONDARY APPROACHESDISCOUNTED CASH FLOW MULTIPLES VENTURE CAPITAL METHOD
The premise of the income approach tovaluation is that the value of a company isderived from the future cash flowsexpected to be produced by thatcompany.This is considered the most theoreticallyrobust method and most often takes theform of a discounted cash flow ("DCF")valuation.Forecast cash flows are discounted topresent value using a discount rate whichtakes into account the riskiness of acompany’s estimated cash flows.The Terminal Value is then calculatedwhich is the estimated present value of allof the cash flows (in perpetuity) beyondthe forecasts provided by the user.Free cash flows are calculated afterdeducting cash required for workingcapital and capital expenditure fromoperational cash flow.EquityMaven uses a discounted cash flowas the primary valuation methodology.
The most common market approachmakes use of the prices at whichcomparable public companies are tradingrelative to their earnings to implycomparable valuation multiples.EquityMaven uses Enterprise Valuerelative to EBITDA ("EV/EBITDA") forcomparable companies. These valuationmultiples are then applied to theSustainable EBITDA of company beingvalued to derive a valuation.This valuation methodology is wellunderstood by the public and relies onthe market ratings of comparablecompanies which have similar businessactivities and risks.EquityMaven uses the market approachas the secondary methodology tocorroborate the findings of the primaryincome approach.Differences in valuation between the DCFand EV/EBITDA valuations will beattributable to difficulty in findingcomparable companies with identicalbusiness drivers, growth prospects and riskfactors to the Company being valued. Themultiples approach also captures currentmarket sentiment which may not reflect trueintrinsic value (like the DCF does).
This method is mostly used as a quick,indicative valuation only. It is most oftenused to calculate the “post-money”valuation of seed/start-up companieswhich are often pre-revenue and where itis easier to estimate a potential exit valueat a future point in time rather thanestimating the cash flows prior to thatpoint.A Terminal Value is calculated at thefuture date when a venture capitalinvestor assumes it will be able to exit theinvestment.The Terminal Value is then discounted bythe rate of return (over the period to exit)required by a potential venture capitalinvestor. The rates of return typicallyrequired by venture capital investors varywith the stage of development of thecompany being valued.The discount rate (rate of return required)used in the Venture Capital Methodalready incorporates the fact that thecompany being valued is illiquid and has arelatively high risk of failure (non-survival).Further illiquidity discounts and survivalprobability weightings are therefore notrequired.
EQUITYMAVEN USES THE DCF AS ITS PRIMARY METHODOLOGY/ 8
LIQUIDATION VALUE SURVIVAL APPROACHLIQUIDATION VALUE PROBABILITY OF SURVIVAL
Liquidation Value assumes that the valueof a company is equal to the price thatwould be received if a company’s assetswere to be sold on auction, less the 3rd-party liabilities of the company.For this estimate, EquityMaven assumesthat:
Accounts Receivable and Inventorycould be sold for 80% of therespective book values;Cash is assumed to be sold at 100%of book value;Fixed Assets are assumed to be soldat 50% of book value;Other Current Assets and IntangibleAssets are assumed to have zerovalue in an auction scenario;All 3rd-party debt and liabilities areassumed at 100% the respectivebook values.
This methodology is most appropriatefor liquidation scenarios.
The DCF and Multiples valuation approaches by themselves assume that the companybeing valued will survive and operate in perpetuity. This assumption is not always correct,particularly for young and start-up companies.EquityMaven therefore performs a weighted average valuation between each of the DCFand Multiples valuation methods and the Liquidation Value.A company’s probability of survival, based on how many years a company has alreadybeen operating, is used to calculate the weighted average valuation.Probabilities of survival and failure are drawn from academic studies.For example:
Valuation = (DCF Equity Value * Probability of Survival) + (Liquidation Value * Probability ofFailure)
orValuation = (Multiples Equity Value * Probability of Survival) + (Liquidation Value * Probability
of Failure)
The VC Method already automatically takes survival probabilities into account through thediscount rate used and does not need to be probability-weighted in the same way.
EQUITYMAVEN WEIGHTS THE DCF AND MULTIPLES VALUATIONS BASED ON PROBABILITY OF SURVIVAL/ 9
VALUATION SUMMARYEQUITY VALUE - ADJUSTED FOR PROBABILITY OF SURVIVAL
65 320 589DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW
42 927 462MULTIPLES
75 090 649VENTURE CAPITAL METHOD
The Equity Value is the Enterprise Value plus excess cash balancesminus interest-bearing debt, adjusted for an illiquidity discount. It isthe value of the Company if it were to be sold as is along with the cashon balance sheet and with its interest-bearing debt obligations. This isthe value of 100% of the shareholding / equity of the Company.
THE DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW VALUATION (ADJUSTED FORPROBABILITY OF SURVIVAL) IS THE ESTIMATED VALUATION OF THE
COMPANY.
THE MULTIPLES VALUATION (ADJUSTED FOR PROBABILITY OFSURVIVAL) IS USED ONLY TO CORROBORATE THE FINDINGS OF
THE DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW VALUATION.
THE VENTURE CAPITAL METHOD IS SHOWN FOR ILLUSTRATIVEAND INDICATIVE PURPOSES ONLY
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Thank You
“However good our futures research may be, we shall never be able to escape from the ultimate dilemma thatall our knowledge is about the past, and all our decisions are about the future” - Ian Wilson, American scenarioplanning expert and strategy consultant
You have been provided with an estimate of the fair value of the Company which willassist you in making any decisions in this regard. It is, however, important to note that avaluation is as at a particular point in time and will be subject to change as theassumptions and forecasts for the Company evolve and are amended.
We wish you and your company all of the best and every success in thefuture!
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Illustrative examples
Annexure 1
This annexure provides illustrative examples of the financial theory which is used to derive the valuation. What follows are workedtheoretical examples in order to provide the user with a better understanding of the valuation mechanics.
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TIME VALUE OF MONEY AND DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW
TIME VALUE OF MONEYThe premise of Time Value of Money (”TVM”) is that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar at some time in the future.This is because the dollar today has earning potential and could be invested to earn a return.For example, if $1.00 was invested at 10% then one year from today it would be worth $1.10.TVM is therefore based on the concept that money can be invested to earn a return at a rate which is called the ”Discount Rate”.The Discount Rate is the rate of return that that you would expect to make on an investment, given how risky that particular investment is.The value of an investment today would therefore be equal to the expected future value of that investment, discounted to the presentvalue using the Discount Rate. For example, if the expected value of the investment is $1.00 one year from now and the Discount Rate is10%, then the present value of the investment would be $0.91.
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW VALUATIONThe premise of a discounted cash flow (” DCF”) valuation is that the value of a company is derived from the future cash flows expected tobe produced by that company. This is considered the most theoretically robust valuation method.Forecast cash flows are discounted to present value using a Discount Rate which takes into account the riskiness of the Company’sestimated cash flows.The Terminal Value is then calculated which is the estimated present value of all of the cash flows beyond the forecasts provided by theuser (into perpetuity).Free cash flows are calculated after deducting changes in working capital and capital expenditure from operational cash flow.Estimating the free cash flow projections for the company is therefore the cornerstone of a DCF valuation.Once the future projections are estimated with the most reasonable degree of accuracy possible, they can then be discounted to thepresent value using a Discount Rate.Estimating an appropriate Discount Rate is the next crucial step. A higher Discount Rate will be required for higher risk free cash flowprojections. The Discount Rate is the rate of return that that an investor would expect to make on an investment, given how risky thatparticular investment is. This would equate to how much an investor could expect to earn by investing funds elsewhere in equally as riskyassets. The Discount Rate used when calculating the Enterprise Value (see definition) is the weighted average cost of capital (“WACC”).A results of a DCF valuation will therefore be determined by the assumptions underlying the calculation of the projected free cash flow aswell as the Discount Rate. Changes in these assumptions can significantly alter the end result so due care must be made to ensureaccuracy.
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DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW EXAMPLE
SIMPLIFIED ILLUSTRATIONThe illustrative example alongside shows a usual income statement forecast up to the EBIT line.From EBIT, taxes (excluding taxes on net interest income/expense) are deducted to arrive at Net Operating Profit After Tax (“NOPLAT”).NOPLAT plus depreciation, amortisation and any other non-cash expenses; less changes in working capital; less capital expenditure results in free cash flow.The assumptions in this example are a WACC / Discount Rate of 10% and a Terminal Growth Rate of 3% (the rate at which it is assumed that free cash flows willgrow forever in the terminal year and beyond).The Terminal Value is then calculated by dividing the free cash flow in the terminal year by WACC minus the Terminal Growth Rate (10% - 3%).All of the free cash flows (including the Terminal Value) are then discounted to present value using the WACC / Discount Rate of 10%.The aggregate of all of the discounted free cash flows is then equal to the “Enterprise Value”. This is how much the business in the example would be worth if ithad no excess cash or interest-bearing debt on balance sheet.From the Enterprise Value, excess cash is then added and interest-bearing debt subtracted to arrive at the “Equity Value” which is the value of the companyincluding its excess cash and debt.An illiquidity discount should then be applied to the Equity Value if the shares of the company are not listed on a stock exchange and freely tradeable.The Equity Value after the illiquidity discount is applied is what 100% of the shareholding in the example company would be worth.
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MULTIPLESEV/EBITDA MULTIPLE VALUATION
The first step is to calculate the sustainable EBITDA for thetrailing (last) twelve months for the company being valued.Assume this is $20,000 as per the financial information in theDCF example.Sustainable EBITDA is the EBITDA after subtracting anyearnings and adding back any expenses that are once-off innature and are not expected to recur. This will give a morenormalised picture of what the company EBITDA is expected tobe going forward.Next, an appropriate valuation multiple must then be appliedto the Sustainable EBITDA to result in an Enterprise Value forthe company being valued.An appropriate valuation multiple is calculated by looking atother firms that are comparable to the company being valuedand that are listed on public stock exchanges. The comparablecompany Enterprise Values are divided by their respectivetrailing twelve month EBITDAs (EBITDA over the last 12-monthperiod) to arrive at Enterprise Value to EBITDA (“EV/EBITDA”)ratios for each comparable company.A median of these comparable EV/ EBITDA ratios is thencalculated and applied to the trailing twelve month sustainableEBITDA of the company being valued to result in the EnterpriseValue.Excess cash is then added and interest-bearing debtsubtracted from the Enterprise Value to calculate the EquityValue and an illiquidity discount is then applied if the companyis privately held (as was done with the DCF valuation).This type of valuation can only be performed if the EBITDA forthe company being valued is positive.
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VENTURE CAPITAL METHODVENTURE CAPITAL METHOD VALUATION
The first step is to calculate the EBITDA for the last year of forecasts (year 5 in this example).Assume this is $40,301 as per the financial information in the DCF example on page 14.
Next, an appropriate valuation multiple must then be applied to the EBITDA to result in an Enterprise Value for the company being valued.An appropriate valuation multiple is calculated by looking at other firms that are comparable to the company being valued and that are listed onpublic stock exchanges. The comparable company Enterprise Values are divided by their respective trailing twelve month EBITDAs (EBITDA for thelast 12-month period) to arrive at Enterprise Value to EBITDA (“EV/EBITDA”) ratios for each comparable company.A median of these comparable EV/ EBITDA ratios is then calculated and applied to the forecast EBITDA of the company being valued to result inthe Enterprise Value.
Assume this is 8.9x as per the Multiples Example on page 15The resultant Enterprise Value is then discounted at the rate of return required by the potential venture capital investor.
The required rate of return will depend on the stage of life of the company being valued e.g. start-up vs early development vs expansion vsbridge/IPO stages.
Excess cash is then added and interest-bearing debt subtracted from the Discounted Enterprise Value to calculate the Equity Value.Note: no illiquidity discount or survival probability is applied in this method. The rate of return required by the potential venture capitalinvestor already takes these factors into account.
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PROBABILITY OF SURVIVALPROBABILITY-WEIGHTING OF THE DCF AND MULTIPLES VALUATIONS
First, the Equity Values from the DCF and Multiples valuations are weighted according to the probability of the Company surviving into perpetuity.Survival probability rates used are based on academic studies.A probability-weighted Equity Value is the result.Similarly, the Liquidation Value is also then probability-weighted according to the probability of the Company failing (and being liquidated)These two probability weighted values are then added together to determine the Equity Value, adjusted for probability of survival
Valuation = (DCF Equity Value * Probability of Survival) + (Liquidation Value * Probability of Failure)or
Valuation = (Multiples Equity Value * Probability of Survival) + (Liquidation Value * Probability of Failure)
The VC Method already takes survival probabilities into account through the discount rate and does not need to be probability-weighted in thesame way.
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Detailed valuation assumptions
Annexure 2
This annexure provides the actual detailed assumptions used to derive the valuation performed in this report.
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PRIMARY APPROACH – DCF - WACCFORECAST FREE CASH FLOWS ARE DISCOUNTED TO PRESENT VALUE AT A DISCOUNT RATE - THE WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL (“WACC”). WACC IS
THE COMPANY’S COST OF EQUITY & AFTER-TAX COST OF DEBT, WEIGHTED BY TARGET MARKET CAPITAL STRUCTURE
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PRIMARY APPROACH – DCF – COST OF EQUITYTHE COMPANY’S COST OF EQUITY IS CALCULATED USING THE CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL (“CAPM”)
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PRIMARY APPROACH – DCF – COST OF DEBTTHE COMPANY’S COST OF DEBT IS CALCULATED USING SYNTHETIC DEBT RATINGS
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PRIMARY APPROACH – DCF – WACC CALCULATION
COST
OF
EQUITY
Risk-free rates are estimated using 10-year local currency
government bond yields. This is then reduced by an estimated
default spread implied in the yield of those bonds (if the
country issuing the bond has a Moody’s rating of less than
Aaa) to arrive at a true risk-free rate.
A Beta is calculated by finding the median of the Company’s
comparable sector peer group Betas and taking out the effect
of the individual peer firms’ capital structures.
The Company-specific Beta is then calculated based on its own
Target Market Capital Structure.
EquityMaven calculates the ERP as the ERP for USA (being the
best proxy for a mature equity market with sufficient data)
and then adds a country risk premium based on a particular
country’s credit default spread and general equity volatility
relative to government bonds.
COST
OF
DEBT
Risk-free rates are estimated using 10-year local currency
government bond yields. This is then reduced by an estimated
default spread implied in the yield of those bonds (if the
country issuing the bond has a Moody’s rating of less than
Aaa) to arrive at a true risk-free rate.
Based on the assumed credit rating, a corporate default
spread can be calculated by analyzing the spread of the yields
of listed corporate bonds with the same credit rating over the
risk-free rate.
A country default spread over the risk-free rate is estimated by
using CDS and bond spreads.
Marginal tax rate.
Note: the calculation (on the right) details the WACC used for the forecast period of the valuation. TheWACC used for the Terminal Value calculation differs in that it assumes a beta of 1.
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1.8 % 6.1 %
4.3 %
0.81
5.4 %
1.8 %
1.6 % 3.3 %2.4 %
5.7 %
88.4 %
11.6 %
0.0 %
27.0 %
PRIMARY APPROACH – DCF VALUATION
FREE CASH FLOWS EQUITY VALUE
YEAR
1
YEAR
2
YEAR
3
YEAR
4
YEAR
5
YEAR
6
YEAR
7
YEAR
8
YEAR
9
YEAR
10
TERM
INAL
3 396
556
4 881
527
8 238
746
5 082
083
5 717
344
6 432
012
7 236
013
8 140
515
9 158
079
10 30
2 839
111 3
35 90
9
ENTE
RPRI
SE VA
LUE
EXCE
SS CA
SH
INTE
REST
BEAR
ING D
EBT
ILLIQ
UIDI
TY DI
SCOU
NT
EQUI
TY VA
LUE
113 762 534
1 341 216 1 566 899-28 384 213
85 152 638
The free cash flows in the chart above represent the operational cash flows of the Company (for the budget as well as first two forecast years)after taking into account changes in working capital, taxation and capital expenditure.The Terminal Value is then calculated which is the estimated present value of all of the cash flows beyond the forecasts provided by the user(into perpetuity) using a terminal growth rate equal to the risk-free rate.These free cash flows are all discounted at the WACC of the Company.The result is the Enterprise Value (see blue bar in “Equity Value” graph above) which is the valuation of the Company before taking into accountexcess cash balances and interest-bearing debt.Once excess cash is added and interest-bearing debt subtracted, the result is the Equity Value prior to any discounts.The Equity Value then needs to be discounted to take into account the fact that the shareholding in the Company is not as liquid as a publicallytraded firm. A private sale of shares would generally take longer and would most likely be more costly than selling publically traded shares. Anilliquidity discount of 35% has been applied based on empirical evidence.The result is the Equity Value, and this is the value of 100% of the shareholding in the Company.
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SECONDARY APPROACH - MULTIPLES VALUATION
EV / EBITDA MULTIPLES EQUITY VALUE
26.0XIMPLIED DCF EV/EBITDA MULTIPLE
8.1XMIDDLE EAST
9.7XWESTERN EUROPE
6.5XSOUTHERN EUROPE
7.4XEASTERN EUROPE & RUSSIA
14.5XAUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND
17.1XASIA
6.6XSOUTH & CENTRAL AMERICA
19.1XNORTH AMERICA
14.5XAFRICA
17.1XWORLD ENTE
RPRI
SE VA
LUE
EXCE
SS CA
SH
INTE
REST
BEAR
ING D
EBT
ILLIQ
UIDI
TY DI
SCOU
NT
EQUI
TY VA
LUE
74 839 965
1 341 216 1 566 899
-18 653 571
55 960 712
The median Enterprise Value relative to EBITDA multiples (“EV / EBITDA”) of comparable companies in the same Thomson Reuters BusinessClassification category for various geographic regions were sourced.The World median EV/EBITDA earnings multiple was then applied to the Company’s EBITDA for the last twelve months, normalised to excludenon-recurring income/expenses. The result is the Enterprise Value which is the valuation of the Company before taking into account excess cashbalances, interest-bearing debt or any illiquidity discounts.Once excess cash is added and interest-bearing debt subtracted, the result is the Equity Value prior to any discounts.The Equity Value then needs to be discounted to take into account the fact that the shareholding in the Company is not as liquid as a publicallytraded firm. A private sale of shares would generally take longer and would most likely be more costly than selling publically traded shares. Anilliquidity discount of 25% has been applied based on empirical evidence.The result is the Equity Value, and this is the value of 100% of the shareholding in the Company.
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SECONDARY APPROACH - VENTURE CAPITAL VALUATION
EV / EBITDA MULTIPLES26.0XIMPLIED DCF EV/EBITDA MULTIPLE
8.1XMIDDLE EAST
9.7XWESTERN EUROPE
6.5XSOUTHERN EUROPE
7.4XEASTERN EUROPE & RUSSIA
14.5XAUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND
17.1XASIA
6.6XSOUTH & CENTRAL AMERICA
19.1XNORTH AMERICA
14.5XAFRICA
17.1XWORLD
EQUITY VALUE
ENTE
RPRI
SE VA
LUE
VC DI
SCOU
NT
EXCE
SS CA
SH
INTE
REST
BEAR
ING D
EBT
EQUI
TY VA
LUE
160 537 743
-85 221 411
1 341 216 1 566 899
75 090 649
The first step is to calculate the EBITDA for the last year of forecasts (see page 6)Next, an appropriate valuation multiple must then be applied to the EBITDA to result in an Enterprise Value for the Company.An appropriate valuation multiple is calculated by looking at other firms that are comparable to the company being valued and that are listed onpublic stock exchanges. The comparable company Enterprise Values are divided by their respective trailing twelve month EBITDAs (EBITDA for thelast 12-month period) to arrive at Enterprise Value to EBITDA (“EV/EBITDA”) ratios for each comparable company.A world median of these comparable EV/ EBITDA ratios is then calculated (see “EV / EBITDA Multiples” graph above) and applied to the forecastEBITDA of the Company to result in the Enterprise Value (see blue bar in “Equity Value” graph above).The resultant Enterprise Value is then discounted at the assumed rate of return required by a potential venture capital investor.
The required rate of return will depend on the stage of life of the company being valued e.g. start-up vs early development vs expansion vsbridge/IPO stages.
Excess cash is then added and interest-bearing debt subtracted from the Discounted Enterprise Value to calculate the Equity Value. Note: no illiquidity discount or survival probability is applied in this method. The assumed rate of return required by a potential venturecapital investor already takes these factors into account.
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ADJUSTMENTS TO VALUATIONS FOR PROBABILITY OF SURVIVALPROBABILITY OF SURVIVAL / FAILURE EQUITY VALUE - SURVIVAL ADJUSTED
76.7%
23.3%
Probability of Survival Probability of Failure DCF Multiples VC method0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
First, the Equity Values from the DCF and Multiples valuations are weighted according to the probability of the Company surviving intoperpetuity.Survival probability rates used are based on academic studies.A probability-weighted Equity value is the result.Similarly, the Liquidation Value is also then probability-weighted according to the probability of the Company failing (and being liquidated)These two probability weighted values are then added together to determine the Equity Value, adjusted for probability of survivalThe VC Method already automatically takes survival probabilities into account through the discount rate used and does not need to beprobability-weighted in the same way.
EQUITYMAVEN USES THE DCF AS ITS PRIMARY METHODOLOGY
THE SURVIVAL-ADJUSTED VALUATION OF THE COMPANY IS THEREFORE USD 65 320 589 BASED ON THE DCF VALUATION
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SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
DCF EQUITY VALUE - SURVIVAL ADJUSTEDEquity Value - Survival Adjusted DCF
Terminal Perpetuity Growth Rate0.77% 1.27% 1.77% 2.27% 2.77%
4.68% 64 493 673 65 492 300 66 671 228 68 092 867 69 852 190Discount 5.18% 63 806 597 64 805 225 65 984 152 67 405 792 69 165 115
Rate 5.68% 63 143 034 64 141 661 65 320 589 66 742 228 68 501 551(WACC) 6.18% 62 502 003 63 500 630 64 679 558 66 101 197 67 860 520
6.68% 61 882 572 62 881 200 64 060 127 65 481 767 67 241 090
MULTIPLES EQUITY VALUE - SURVIVAL ADJUSTEDEquity Value - Survival Adjusted Multiples
EV/EBITDA Multiple15.12X 16.12X 17.12X 18.12X 19.12X
3 497 407 30 291 710 32 303 856 34 316 001 36 328 147 38 340 2923 934 583 34 094 404 36 358 068 38 621 732 40 885 395 43 149 059
EBITDA 4 371 758 37 897 098 40 412 280 42 927 462 45 442 644 47 957 826(TTM) 4 808 934 41 699 792 44 466 492 47 233 192 49 999 892 52 766 592
5 246 110 45 502 486 48 520 704 51 538 923 54 557 141 57 575 359
The tables above provide a sensitivity analysis of both the DCF Equity Value (Survival Adjusted) as well as the Multiples Equity Value (SurvivalAdjusted).The sensitivity tables show the various valuations should certain of the underlying assumptions change.The first sensitivity table above illustrates the effect on valuation of changing the WACC used for the forecast period (not the WACC used tocalculate the Terminal Value).
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Industry benchmarking
Annexure 3This annexure provides benchmarking of the Company against companies operating globally in the same industry. The purpose is
to provide feedback where the Company is either performing better (green tick) or worse (red cross) than industry averages. Metricsthat are indicated to be worse than industry averages may be potential areas for improvement which, if improved upon, could
potentially increase the Company valuation.
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INDUSTRY BENCHMARKING
Gross profit margin
It measures what percentage of Revenue remains after payingfor the Cost of Goods Sold.A higher percentage means that more sales profit is available topay for operating and other expenses.Higher Gross Profit Margins are better than lower Gross ProfitMargins.
28.7%
90.9%GROSS PROFIT MARGIN
8.4%
14.1%EBITDA MARGIN
6.0%
12.6%EBIT MARGIN
INDUSTRY COMPANY
EBITDA margin
It measures what percentage of Revenue remains afterdeducting Cost of Goods Sold and all other operating expenses,but before deducting Interest, Tax, Depreciation andAmortisation.EBITDA Margin is therefore useful to gauge the operatingefficiency of a company before the non-operating effects offinancing, tax and accounting policies.Higher EBITDA Margins are better than lower EBITDA Margins.
EBIT margin
It measures what percentage of Revenue remains afterdeducting Cost of Goods Sold and all other operating expenses,but before deducting Interest and Tax.EBIT Margin is therefore useful to gauge the operating efficiencyof a company before the non-operating effects of financing andtax.Higher EBIT Margins are better than lower EBIT Margins.
Gross Profit Margin = Revenue − Cost of Goods Sold
Revenue
EBITDA Margin = EBITDA
RevenueEBIT Margin = EBIT
Revenue
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INDUSTRY BENCHMARKING
TOTAL DEBT / EBITDA
It measures a company’s leverage by determining howmuch Total Debt a company has relative to its EBITDA.EBITDA is a proxy for operating cash flow (before capitalexpenditure and working capital changes).This measure therefore provides a good indication of acompany’s ability to service and repay its debtobligations.Company’s with lower Total Debt / EBITDA ratios typicallyhave less financial risk than those with higher ratios.
2.1X
0.1XTOTAL DEBT / EBITDA
6.0X
84.9XINTEREST COVER
1.7X
9.8XCURRENT RATIO
INDUSTRY COMPANY
INTEREST COVER
It measures how many times greater a company’soperating profit is relative to its Gross Interest Expenseobligations.This measure therefore provides a good indication of acompany’s ability to service its debt interest obligationsand the margin of safety thereof.Company’s with higher Interest Cover Ratios typicallyhave less financial risk than those with lower ratios(unless the Company has an Interest Cover Ratio of zerodue to it not having any interest-bearing debt).
CURRENT RATIO
It measures a company’s solvency by determining the degree to whichCurrent Assets cover Current Liabilities.This measure therefore provides a good indication of a company’s andability to pay it’s short-term financial obligations.Company’s with higher Current Ratios typically have a better ability tomeet short-term financial obligations than those with lower ratios.
Total Debt/EBITDA = (Total interest bearing debt)EBITDA
Interest Cover = EBIT
Gross interest expenseCurrent Ratio = Current Assets
Current Liabilities
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INDUSTRY BENCHMARKING
ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE DAYS (AVERAGE)
Accounts Receivable Days (average) is also called “AccountsReceivable Collection Period” or “Days Sales Outstanding”.It measures how long customers are taking to pay a company.Lower Accounts Receivable Days is better than higherAccounts Receivable Days. Lower Accounts Receivable Daysmeans that less of a company’s cash is tied up in AccountsReceivables and therefore more cash is immediately availableto the Company.
67
66ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE DAYS (AVE)
72
129INVENTORY DAYS (AVE)
57
116ACCOUNTS PAYABLE DAYS (AVE)
INDUSTRY COMPANY
Inventory days (Average)
It measures how long it takes a company to convert Inventoryinto Revenue.Lower Inventory Days is better than higher Inventory Days.Lower Inventory Days means that less of a company’s cash istied up in Inventory and therefore more cash is immediatelyavailable.
Accounts payable days (AVERAGE)
Accounts Payable Days is also called “Days Payable Outstanding”.It measures how long a company is taking to pay its suppliers.Generally, higher Accounts Payable Days are better for a company. Higherdays means that less of a company’s cash is tied up in paying AccountsPayables, and therefore more cash is immediately available to the companyfor other purposes.Abnormally low Accounts Payable Days may, however, be a bad sign andcould mean that suppliers are demanding shorter payment terms becausethey are not confident of a company’s credit worthiness.Abnormally lowAccounts Payable Days may, however, be a bad sign and could mean thatsuppliers are demanding shorter payment terms because they are notconfident of a company’s credit worthiness.
AR Days (ave) = x 365Average accounts receivable
Revenue
Inv Days (ave) = x 365Average inventory
Cost of salesAP Days (ave) = x 365Average accounts payable
Cost of sales
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Glossary
Annexure 4This annexure provides definitions of technical valuation terms used in this report.
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GLOSSARYCAPITALISATION OF EARNINGS Applying a valuation multiple to the Company’s earnings to derive the Company valuation
CDS Credit Default Swap which is an agreement by the seller of a CDS to compensate the buyer of a CDS in the event of a loan default
DCF / DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW Future forecast cash flows are discounted to present value using a discount rate which takes into account the riskiness of the estimated cash flows
EBIT Earnings before interest and tax
EBITDA Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation. SUSTAINABLE EBITDA = EBITDA ADJUSTED FOR NON-RECURRING INCOME/EXPENSES
ENTERPRISE VALUE Valuation of the Company before taking into account EXCESS cash balances and interest-bearing debt on the balance sheet
EQUITY VALUE Enterprise Value plus EXCESS Cash minus Interest-Bearing Debt, adjusted for an illiquidity discount
EXCESS CASH Cash not required for the company’s operations
FREE CASH FLOW Operational cash flows of the Company after taking into account changes in working capital, taxation and capital expenditure
GROSS INTEREST EXPENSE Annual interest expense to be paid on the Company’s interest-bearing debt
LEVERAGE Amount of interest-bearing debt used by the Company
OPERATING CASH FLOW Amount of cash flow generated by the Company’s normal operations
OPERATING PROFIT Profit earned from the Company’s normal operations
PRESENT VALUE The current worth of a future income stream after discounting at a specified discount rate
TARGET MARKET CAPITALSTRUCTURE Target weighting of THE market value of THE Company’s Equity and THE market value of Company’s interest-bearing debt
TERMINAL VALUE Estimated present value of all of the cash flows beyond the forecasts provided by the user (into perpetuity)
TOTAL MARKET VALUE OF COMPANY Market value of THE Company’s Equity plus THE market value of Company’s interest-bearing debt
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