Utility ForecaSter - Investing Daily · 2016-11-16 · with high yields. Utilities and other...

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Ari Charney, Chief Investment Strategist Mission Statement: To provide insightful analysis about safe, high income-producing utility and energy companies to enable individual investors to build a reliable income stream. UTILITY FORECASTER Growth Safety Income Reliability By the Investment Strategists at Utility Forecaster Member Guide

Transcript of Utility ForecaSter - Investing Daily · 2016-11-16 · with high yields. Utilities and other...

Ari Charney, Chief Investment Strategist

Mission Statement:To provide insightful analysis about safe, high income-producing

utility and energy companies to enable individual investors to build a reliable income stream.

Utility ForecaSterGrowth • Safety • Income • Reliability By the Investment Strategists at Utility Forecaster

Member Guide

Table of ContentsWelcome

1. Getting Started With Utility Forecaster 5Strategy

Utility Forecaster’s Early Warning System

Utility Forecaster’s Safety Ratings System

Broker Considerations

Making Your First Utility Forecaster Trades

The Utility Forecaster Portfolios

Tax Considerations

2. Communicating With the Analysts 8Emails from Ari and Richard to All Members

Monthly Issues of Utility Forecaster

Stock Talk—the Website Forum

Web Chats

The Analysts’ Speaking Engagements

Meeting the Analysts in Person

3. Using the Website 10Logging in for the First Time

Logging in After the First Time

4. Managing Your Account 11Updating Your Account Information: Do-It-Yourself

Changing the Amount and Type of Email You Receive

Updating Your Account Information: With a Customer Service Representative

5. Additional Resources 12Promotional Stocks

Special Reports

Conclusion

Investing Daily, a division of Capitol Information Group, Inc., 7600A Leesburg Pike, West Bldg., Suite 300, Falls Church, VA 22043. Subscription and customer services: P.O. Box 4123, McLean, VA 22102-9819, 800-832-2330. It is a violation of the United States copyright laws for any person or entity to reproduce, copy or use this document, in part or in whole, without the express permission of the publisher. All rights are expressly reserved. UFMG ©2015 Investing Daily, a division of Capitol Information Group, Inc. Printed in the United States of America.

Dear Utility Forecaster Member,

Welcome to our country’s longest running investment advisory newsletter focused on utilities and other essential services. We’ve been publishing for more than 25 years for a reason—our recommendations help our subscribers become wealthy.

While other investing advisories encourage you to take big risks and adjust your portfolio constantly, Utility Forecaster offers you steady financial gains from the least demanding stocks around. Some people may say that utility stocks are boring, but their steady payoff means that your life can be more exciting and satisfying than ever!

• If you’re mainly interested in dividend income, Utility Forecaster offers securities with high yields. Utilities and other essential services typically pay a large part of their earnings in dividends.

• If you’re mainly interested in safety and stability, you’ll appreciate Utility Fore-caster’s income streams. They come from one of the most historically stable sec-tors of the market. Utilities are regulated, generally have no competition and provide services that are essential to society. No one can live without electricity, heat or running water.

Are you ready for more reliable income to flow your way?

We recommend you begin with these three steps:

1. Familiarize yourself with this Member Guide.

Because Utility Forecaster emphasizes financial safety, we want you to thoroughly understand how our system works to provide steady returns. In this Guide, we begin by explaining our Safety Rating System and Early Warning System, which have saved our members from many a financial mishap by warning them in advance of dividend cuts.

The Guide will show you what to expect regarding your issues and emailed Alerts. It also tells you how to get started communicating with me and my fellow Utility Forecaster analyst, Richard Stavros, and with your fellow members.

2. Log into the Utility Forecaster website and familiarize yourself with the portfolios.

In Section 3, this Guide explains in detail how to log into the Utility Forecaster web-site. Once there, you’ll browse the Conservative and Aggressive recommendations, view our larger universe of stocks we follow in the How They Rate table, and we’ll point you toward handy tracking features like “My Watch List.”

Utility ForecaSterGrowth • Safety • Income • Reliability By the Investment Strategists at Utility Forecaster

3. When you are ready, check out our Growth and Income Spotlight articles for our favorite stocks to buy now.

Start slowly by investing in a few of our picks each month. Soon you’ll be celebrating your first dividends. If you don’t need the income now, we suggest you reinvest your dividends for additional growth.

My staff and I welcome you and congratulate you on your wise decision to become a member of our income investing community.

We Want to Hear About Your Success!

Our success is measured by your accomplishments. So we want to hear from you, and we hope that you will share your stories about the profits you make.

If you would like to let us know about your Utility Forecaster experience, or if you have any comments or questions, please share your experience on the website’s Stock Talk discussion board.

Richard and I greatly appreciate the trust and confidence you have placed in us. And we take our responsibility to you seriously … we understand that our readers are counting on us to help them with real-life concerns. I personally think of this Utility Forecaster member every time I begin writing:

“I am taking care of my mother who is 82 and in a nursing home. Your advice has been able to keep her comfortable [even though] nursing care is so expensive. I now have a great income-producing portfolio that doesn’t dip like the Dow or NASDAQ on bad days and goes up in value almost every day.”

We look forward to helping you too achieve abundant success in the markets and the worry-free retirement of your dreams.

To Your Success,

Ari Charney Chief Investment Strategist Utility Forecaster

P.S. In my opinion, one of the best features Utility Forecaster offers is Stock Talk—our online venue where you can personally ask us questions. I encourage you to get to know us better via Stock Talk. This forum also gives you priceless education from your fellow members.

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1. Getting Started With Utility Forecaster

This section includes topics that new members usually want to learn immediately. (If you’d like to locate these topics on the Utility Forecaster website while reading this Guide, see Section 3 for login instructions.)

StrategySince 1989, Investing Daily’s Utility Forecaster has earned subscribers a gain of 1,477 percent from the world’s best high-income-plus-growth stocks on the planet. At the time this Guide goes to press, the average gain of Utility Fore caster holdings is 215% based on 53 positions combined currently in its Aggressive and Con serv a tive portfolios.

Much of Utility Forecaster’s success stems from the introduction of two unique systems that add critical levels of protection:

• Utility Forecaster’s Early Warning System (also referred to as the DuPont Hybrid Model)

• Utility Forecaster’s Safety Rating System

Utility Forecaster’s Early Warning SystemNew technologies, low-cost natural gas and sweep - ing environmental regulations are creating chal-lenges for utility executives who have operated under the same business model for 100 years.

In response to these developments, we developed a layer of protection for our subscribers by incor-porating the Early Warning System into our analysis. If you’ve ever been burned by a dividend cut, you understand how valuable this tool can be.

The Early Warning System breaks a company’s return on equity (ROE) into its individual com-ponents, which allows for greater ease in analyz-ing what’s actually driving growth. In addition to identifying promising investments, this system alerts us to declining margins (the proportion of revenue remaining after paying the costs of operating the business).

The System’s red and green flash alerts notify our analysts when trends in percentage changes

in ROE exceed or fall short of preset criteria. The system then displays customized breakdowns of each company’s fundamentals, offering a snap-shot of a firm’s true financial health.

The System, also referred to as the DuPont Hybrid Model, originates from the original DuPont model that was developed in 1919 by a finance executive at EI du Pont de Nemours and Co., and was then used by many other companies to evaluate the critical components that contribute to ROE and so shareholder value. ROE is still considered a key mea-sure when comparing com-panies against their peers and is used by many of the world’s top investors, includ-ing Warren Buffett.

The Early Warning System (AKA DuPont Hybrid Model) is the brainchild of Richard Stavros, one of Utility Fore-caster’s analysts. In 2005, Richard, as Executive Editor of the utility jour-nal Public Utilities Fortnightly, developed with Jean Reaves Rollins, managing partner at The C Three Group, a hybrid version of the DuPont Model to evaluate utilities’ performance.

The three-step DuPont Model shows whether a company is boosting its ROE by improving prof-itability, using assets more efficiently or taking on additional leverage. Meanwhile, when using Richard’s five-step model to examine two peer companies with different ROEs, investors can learn whether the difference exists from factors such as credit risk and interest expense, poor use of capital, an unwieldy debt burden, or higher operating costs.

We’ve gone back and calculated the stock returns of the top companies on Richard’s annual list, year by year. The 10 highest-rated utilities on his first list in 2009 have since returned 43% more than the utility industry as a whole.

His top 10 have done 81% better than the indus-try in the following year.

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His third annual list fared even better. The 10 most highly-ranked companies, according to his model, have since risen 60.4%. That’s 151% bet-ter than the 24% return posted by the average utility over the same period of time. Clearly, this adapted model works!

Our exclusive Early Warning System is vital, because it means you get an early warning if any of your money is in danger.

For additional information about the Utility Forecaster’s Early Warning System, visit www.UtilityForecaster.com/exclusive-safety-tools. (You must first log in to read members-only materials on the website. For instructions on logging into the website, see Section 3.)

Utility Forecaster’s Safety Rating System – How Do We Perform Our Safety Tests?For an additional layer of safety, every stock we recommend passes through our Utility Forecaster Rating System. Safety Ratings are based on the following eight financial, operating and regula-tory criteria:

1. The worst estimated annual payout ratio is greater than 0% but less than 80%.

2. The dividend has increased over the last 12 months, showing the ability to weather tough times.

3. Less than 10% of the earnings come from unregulated operations, ensuring consis-tency of earnings despite economic ups and downs.

4. The bond rating is equivalent to BBB- (stable) or higher, from at least one major credit-rating agency, ensuring an invest-ment-grade balance sheet that’s likely to avoid a downgrade.

5. Minimal debt needs to be rolled over through the following year, showing greater ability to withstand the tight credit market.

6. The organization has good regulatory relations, with diversity and/or demon-strated cooperation with officials in key states or federal agencies.

7. Fuel cost exposure is neutral or positive (for energy) and free cash flow is positive for other groups.

8. The organization has geographic diver-sification or concentration in recession-resistant regional economy.

One point is awarded for each criterion met. We determine the rating by adding the number of criteria that is met. For example, a utility meet-ing five criteria has a “5” rating. “8” is highest (safest), and “0” is lowest (riskiest).

You can see our ratings for each stock we follow in the How They Rate table on the website at www.UtilityForecaster.com/howtheyrate. There’s additional information about the How They Rate table on the next page of this Guide.

Broker ConsiderationsTo trade Utility Forecaster recommendations, you’ll need only a standard brokerage agree-ment. If you haven’t already opened a brokerage account, review the Financial Industry Regula-tory Authority’s advice and then start research-ing potential brokers using websites such as Investopedia and Barron’s. At Investing Daily, we’re not affiliated with any brokers.

Once you’ve transferred money into your broker-age account, it’s time to start building your port-folio. That’s where Utility Forecaster comes into play.

How should I start building my Utility Forecaster portfolio? This is the question we get asked most often by new members. Building a portfolio and making money is the fun part. To answer this question, we have three suggestions for you…

1. Consider first buying the Growth Spot-light and/or Income Spotlight stocks that we covered in the most recent issue of Utility Fore caster. Those may be found in your print issue or online on the website’s home page in the left-side menu.

2. Always review the online portfolio tables, updated every two hours, to ensure that the Spotlight stocks still rate as a Buy and trade below our recommended Buy price.

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3. Get to know our investing philosophy and read How to Build A Portfolio, found under the Resources tab on the red horizontal navigation bar on the website.

Utility Forecaster has two portfolios. How should I choose between them?Utility Forecaster contains two portfolios and our “How They Rate” table designed to help you safely maximize your returns. To explore the portfolios, log in to the Utility Forecaster website and click “Portfolios” on the red horizontal navi-gation bar.

The Growth Portfolio contains a mix of core and aggressive holdings. This portfolio allows investors to generate high total returns consistently.

The Income Portfolio contains a mix of con-servative and aggressive investments. This portfolio allows investors to achieve high cur-rent yields, safety and the ability for dividend growth to beat inflation.

“How They Rate” is an easy-to-use table designed to give you information regarding vital statistics of stocks in the portfolios as well as in our wider coverage universe, including our safety rating, limit price (the maximum share price you should pay to buy the stock), yield, total return, and commentary. Prices are up -dated every 2 hours and are delayed 15 minutes.

The current portfolios and the “How They Rate” table are located under the Portfolio tab on the red navigation bar on the website.

Once you’ve started investing in Utility Fore-caster recommendations, we’ve made it easy for you to track them with our “My Watch List” fea-ture. With “My Watch List,” you can build your own personalized portfolio table from stocks in the Utility Forecaster portfolios. Our members tell us that “My Watch List” is a snap to use – and they always know at a glance how their personal portfolio holdings are faring.

To add your purchases to “My Watch List,” click “Portfolios” in the red horizontal navigation bar. Then click “Edit My Watch List.”

Check the boxes next to the holdings that you’ve purchased. When you’re finished, click the green “Save Changes” button.

The website will remember your choices. The next time you visit the Utility Forecaster website, hover over “Portfolios” in the red horizontal navi-gation bar. Then click on “My Watch List” from the drop-down menu. You’ll see only the holdings that you checked earlier.

As you sell holdings, simply click the “Edit My Watch List” button again and uncheck the boxes.

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Then click the green “Save Changes” button again.

If you prefer to use a different tracking sys-tem, the Utility Forecaster website can usually accommodate that too. Next to the green “Save Changes” button you’ll see options for copying or printing the portfolios. You can also download a CSV (comma-delimited) version which can eas-ily be imported into Microsoft Excel and other financial programs.

For more information on how to customize your view of the Utility Forecaster portfolios, see http://www.investingdaily.com/portfolio-features/.

Tax ConsiderationsIf you make money in the market, you’re going to owe taxes on dividends earned and other cash distributions you may have taken. However, you can manage your potential liabilities. The start-ing point is to know how your income is taxed, as each type of holding is taxed slightly differently.

The Utility Forecaster portfolios choose from a variety of security categories. We are primar-ily concerned with whether the securities are backed by healthy, growing businesses that are going to build wealth over time. Business strength is by far the most important factor when it comes to how much money we’ll make as investors. Secondarily, it’s important to know how a particular investment is taxed because this can also make a big difference when it comes to maximizing your returns.

On the website, Utility Forecaster lists a conve-nient Portfolio Tax Guide, under the Resources tab on the red horizontal navigation bar, com-plete with a chart of how each security is taxed, to help you understand how to manage your potential tax liabilities.

2. Communicating With Ari and Richard

As much as we’d like to be able to talk to each one of you individually, federal regulations pro-hibit subscription companies like us from giving personalized investing advice – that’s something a licensed financial planner or stockbroker would

do. At Utility Forecaster, we have our conversa-tions where all members can benefit. The good news is there are several satisfying ways we can do that, including email, an online forum, web chats and live events as described below.

Emails from the Analysts to All MembersWhen market-moving events occur – mergers and earning reports – or anything else that can impact the profitability of your Utility Fore-caster holdings, the analysts will email you an Alert. (As you can see, it’s very important that we have your correct email address on file. See Section 4 if you ever need to update your email address or other account information.)

Additionally, Alerts will appear as a prominent red bar on the Utility Forecaster website. All past and current Alerts are available when you click “Alerts” on the red horizontal naviga-tion bar.

Whether you see it first through email or as a red bar on the website, we ask that you open and read the Alert at your earliest convenience.

In addition to occasional Alerts, we will email you the premium edition of our weekly Utility & Income e-letter. You may have received the free, non-member version of Utility & Income previously, but now that you’re a paid member of Utility Forecaster the e-letter will include portfolio updates. Look for Utility & Income to arrive in your inbox each Thursday. Utility & Income will also be posted on the website.

Monthly Issues of Utility Forecaster

Portfolio changes will, of course, be incorporated into the Utility Forecaster issues as well.

Electronic issues: This is the fastest way to receive your issues. On the Saturday prior to your receiving the print issue in the mail, the new issue of Utility Forecaster will be posted to the website by 12 a.m. ET. The electronic PDF version may be downloaded from the home page by clicking the large black “Current Issue” bar – you may of course then print a copy if you like. Both the PDF and HTML versions are found in

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the website’s Issue Archives. Your Utility Fore-caster membership also gets you access to all of our past issues at no additional cost.

Print issues: Your printed issues are identical to the PDF versions of the online issues and should arrive through the U.S. mail around the first Wednesday of each month.

Stock Talk—the Website ForumOne of the most valuable resources available to you as a Utility Forecaster member is the abil-ity to engage with Ari, Richard and your fellow investors on the website’s Stock Talk discussion forum. To access the forum from the home page, click on the “Resources” tab and then click on “Stock Talk.”

We are especially proud of the unique and vibrant virtual community that Stock Talk makes possible. This is an interactive feature, where the experienced and novice members of Utility Forecaster come together to learn from each other and help each other out. On Stock Talk you’ll find that we often shorten the Utility Forecaster name to “UF.”

A Stock Talk posting form appears at the bot-tom of all website alerts and articles. If you have a question or comment pertaining to one particular alert or article, please post your question at the bottom of that alert or article. General questions and comments can be posted

in the general Stock Talk area found under the Resources tab.

Generally you can expect a response from one of our analysts within 3 business days after you post your question or comment.

Live Web Chats On a monthly basis, one of Utility Forecaster’s analysts – Ari or Richard – will conduct an online chat session. Live web chat dates and times are announced under the Events tab.

This is your chance to join your fellow Utility Forecaster investors and ask the analysts ques-tions about your holdings, other investments, and anything else you would like to discuss with them. Past chats are recorded and available for viewing as well.

Analyst Speaking EngagementsThe Investing Daily analysts are regularly fea-tured in online webinars conducted by outside organizations. When they have a webinar com-ing up, we will list it on the website under the Events tab.

Meeting Ari and Richard in Person Members of Investing Daily’s Wealth Society are invited to attend our annual Investing Summit at no charge. The Summit features two days of formal presentations mixed with fun,

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casual interactions around town. The Utility Forecaster analysts are popular speakers at the Summit.

A limited number of non-members are invited to attend the Investing Summit for a $495 fee. Please call (800) 832-2330 for details.

3. Using the Website, www.UtilityForecaster.com

Logging in for the First Time

If you have other Investing Daily subscrip- tions and you know your password and email address on record, you can now use those same credentials to log into the Utility Forecaster website.

If Utility Forecaster is your first Investing Daily publication, to log in the first time you will need to register with Investing Daily and create a password. Within two days of subscribing you should receive an email from us with your new account number. If, for some reason, you don’t have that information, please call our Customer Service Department during regular business hours.

Once you have your account number and email address ready,

1. Go to the Investing Daily “My Account” page, http://www.investingdaily.com/my-account/

2. Enter your Account Number

3. Enter the Last Name that you used as you subscribed

4. Enter the Email Address that you used as you purchased Utility Forecaster

5. Create a Password, and then enter it a second time to be sure

6. Click the green “Register New Account” button

7. Proceed to the Utility Forecaster website, www.UtilityForecaster.com

8. To log in, enter your email address and new password

9. Click the yellow “Log In” button.

It’s important that you use the email address here that you used when you subscribed to Utility Forecaster. If, in the future, you want to change your email address on record, see the “Do-It-Yourself” instructions in Section 4 or con-tact our Customer Service Department during regular business hours.

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Logging in After the First Time

If you ever forget your password, you can retrieve it yourself using the “Forgot your pass-word?” link on the website’s home page.

Simply enter your email address in the “Email address” box and click the “Forgot your pass-word?” link. Within a minute or so, you’ll receive an email with your password in your inbox. To maintain maximum security after using this process, we recommend that you proceed to change your password—see “Updating Your Account Information” below.

If you continue to have trouble logging in, please contact Customer Service for help and a “Quick-Access Link.”

Do you subscribe to other Investing Daily ser-vices beyond Utility Forecaster? If so, there’s a quick way to jump from website to website. Once you’re logged into the Utility Forecaster site, click on “My Investing Daily” in the black bar. A large drop-down menu will list all of the premium ser-vices in which you’re actively enrolled. Click the name of any service to jump to that site.

When you’re ready to return to the Utility Fore-caster website, you can jump back using the same drop-down list.

4. Managing Your Account

Updating Your Account Information: Do-It-YourselfIf you need to update your postal address, email address, or password, please log into the Utility Forecaster website and then click on “My Account” in the top-right of the website.

Changing the Amount and Type of Email You ReceiveWhile logged into “My Account,” you can also choose “Email Preferences.” Checking and un -checking these boxes controls what kind of email we send you. Please be sure that “Issue Notifica-tions, Trade Alerts, and Flash Alerts” is always checked, since unchecking that box means that you won’t receive the critical trading Alerts.

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Updating Your Account Information: With a Customer Service RepresentativeIf you have any questions about your account or would like help in changing your account information, please contact our friendly Customer Service representatives. We are open Monday through Friday, from 8:30 a.m. until 6:00 p.m. ET. Our phone number is 800-832-2330 and our email address is [email protected].

5. Additional Resources

Here are two more helpful resources found on the Utility Forecaster website. On the website’s red horizontal navigation bar, choose “Resources” to review these features.

Promotional Stocks

You may have subscribed to Utility Forecaster in response to a promotion that included some tantalizing but mysterious stock picks. You can find full descriptions of those Promotion Stocks under “Resources” on the Utility Forecaster web-site. Please note that we analyze and share doz-ens of stock picks with our members each year, so the promotional stocks may not necessarily be the ones that we recommend you start with as your very first Utility Forecaster stocks.

Special Reports

We occasionally publish short reports on topics of particular interest. You can find many of those reports under “Resources” on the Special Reports page of the website.

Conclusion

Dear Utility Forecaster Member,

We hope that you’ve found this Member Guide helpful. If you have any suggestions for improve-ment, please email them to our Publisher, Phil Ash, at [email protected]. Your ideas will smooth the way for others who come after you.

As you begin your adventure with Utility Forecaster, we believe you will soon come to enjoy all the benefits of membership, including consistently beating the S&P 500.

Be sure to take advantage of Stock Talk, as we truly believe in “members helping members.” As you gain experience and insights, we all look forward to hearing about your progress and cheering you on.

You may remember that, combined, we offer you over 50 years of investing experience, much of that time focused on the utility sector. We look forward to not only helping you achieve your fondest financial dreams, but to sharing the journey with you!

To Your Financial Success,

Ari Charney and Richard Stavros Chief Strategists Utility Forecaster

UFM

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