USGS: Quake Early Warning System

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    How Warning Can IncreaseSafety and Prevent Damage

    Even a few seconds of warn-

    ing can enable actions that protectpeople and property. In the time be-

    tween receipt of an alert and arrivalof damaging shaking, the followingactions can be taken:

    Human Responses

    schoolchildren, drop, cover, and

    hold on; turn off stoves, safelystop vehicles.

    safe locations.

    dentists, and others stop deli-cate procedures.

    firehouse doors, personnel

    prepare and prioritize responsedecisions.

    Automated responses

    doors, shut down productionlines, secure chemicals, place

    sensitive equipment in a safemode.

    slow or stop trains to preventderailment.

    power stations and grid facilities

    from strong shaking.

    0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 > 80

    100 KILOMETERS50

    50 MILES

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    0

    1

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    Earthquake Hazard Levels

    Percent of 1g shaking with2-percent probability of beingexceeded in 50 years.

    M8

    M9

    M8

    Minutes of warning

    Major fault lines

    Scenarioearthquakeswith magnitude

    Seismic sensor

    EXPLANATION

    1

    M8

    showing the amount of advance warningtime that might be available from a system

    like ShakeAlert for several plausible future

    earthquake scenarios. Those scenarios

    include magnitude 8 (M8) quakes on the

    San Andreas Fault with epicenters in

    northern and southern California and an M9

    quake on the Cascadia Subduction Zone

    with an epicenter offshore of northernmost

    have as much as several minutes warning

    before shaking waves from those quakes

    struck them. The map also shows the

    regional variation in the level of earthquakehazard in terms of the intensity of shaking

    (as a percentage of g, the acceleration

    of gravity) having at least a 2-percent

    probability of being exceeded in a 50-year

    period (from 2014 USGS hazard map). The

    network of seismic (earthquake) sensors is

    population centers. Illustration modified

    from Allen (2013).

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    How Does ShakeAlert Work?

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    Major Components of an EarlyWarning System

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    Future Developments

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    Why ShakeAlert EmphasizesIntensity, not Magnitude

    The shaking you feel isdescribed by earthquake intensity

    rather than magnitude. High in-tensities are what cause damage

    in earthquakes.

    Intensity

    caused by earthquake waves

    at a particular location -

    single earthquake

    Magnitude

    amount of energy released in

    an earthquake

    area) of fault rupture

    others, 2003) rapidly show the

    distribution of intensity after anearthquake (http://earthquake.usgs.

    gov/earthquakes/shakemap/).You can also report the

    ground shaking you experienced

    to help create intensity mapsthrough Did You Feel It (http://earth-

    quake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/dyfi/).

    Will the West Coast have anEarly Warning System Before or

    After the Next Big Quake?

    warning systems built them after a

    devastating earthquake.Japan invested $600 million in

    such a system after the 1995 Kobeearthquake killed 6,400 people.

    Today, Japans system allows everycitizen to receive advance alert of

    earthquake ground shaking from

    Thanks to this system, no trains

    derailed in the 2011 magnitude 9.0Tohoku earthquake, and according

    to a poll in Japan, 90 percent of thecitizens think the system is worth

    2013).

    Other countries that built sys-tems after devastating earthquakesinclude:

    Earthquake killed 87,587 people)

    Earthquake killed 2,415)

    Earthquake killed 17,127)

    City Earthquake killed 10,153)

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    Diagrammatic maps showing

    northwestward spreading of ground shaking

    (red and yellow) generated by theM7.8

    ShakeOut scenario earthquake centered in

    the Imperial Valley of southern California.

    The times shown are times after the start

    of the earthquake rupture at the epicenter

    (white star). This scenario was part of

    a comprehensive earthquake exercise

    conducted in the State of California in 2008

    (Perry and others, 2008).

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    P-wave

    On your screen: ShakeAlert

    1

    2

    Real-time tracking of seismic waves from quakes epicenter.

    Your current location tracked by GPS.3

    Seconds remaining before seismic waves reach you.4

    Expected intensity of quake at your current location.5

    Estimated magnitude of quake.6

    7 Intensity scale.

    Real-time tracking of the fault rupture (updates intensity).

    S-wave

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5 6

    7

    A user of ShakeAlert receives a message like this on the screen of his computer. The

    message alerts the user to how many seconds before the shaking waves arrive at their

    location and the expected intensity of shaking at that site. The shaking intensity follows the

    by everyone, people find it difficult to stand, and structures may suffer some damage. Thewarning message also displays a map with the location of the epicenter, the magnitude of

    the quake, and the current position of the P and S waves. In this example, the alert is for the

    ShakeOut scenario earthquake (Perry and others, 2008).

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    http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/fs2014308

    ISSN 2327-6932 (online)

    ISSN 2327-6916 (print)

    For more information contact:

    U.S. Geological Survey

    Earthquake Hazards Program

    Earthquake Early Warning

    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/

    earlywarning/

    or

    Erin R. [email protected]

    This Fact Sheet and any updates to it

    are available online at:

    http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2014/3083/

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