USGS: Quake Early Warning System
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Transcript of USGS: Quake Early Warning System
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7/25/2019 USGS: Quake Early Warning System
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7/25/2019 USGS: Quake Early Warning System
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How Warning Can IncreaseSafety and Prevent Damage
Even a few seconds of warn-
ing can enable actions that protectpeople and property. In the time be-
tween receipt of an alert and arrivalof damaging shaking, the followingactions can be taken:
Human Responses
schoolchildren, drop, cover, and
hold on; turn off stoves, safelystop vehicles.
safe locations.
dentists, and others stop deli-cate procedures.
firehouse doors, personnel
prepare and prioritize responsedecisions.
Automated responses
doors, shut down productionlines, secure chemicals, place
sensitive equipment in a safemode.
slow or stop trains to preventderailment.
power stations and grid facilities
from strong shaking.
0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 > 80
100 KILOMETERS50
50 MILES
0
0
1
1
3
5
2
1
2
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Earthquake Hazard Levels
Percent of 1g shaking with2-percent probability of beingexceeded in 50 years.
M8
M9
M8
Minutes of warning
Major fault lines
Scenarioearthquakeswith magnitude
Seismic sensor
EXPLANATION
1
M8
showing the amount of advance warningtime that might be available from a system
like ShakeAlert for several plausible future
earthquake scenarios. Those scenarios
include magnitude 8 (M8) quakes on the
San Andreas Fault with epicenters in
northern and southern California and an M9
quake on the Cascadia Subduction Zone
with an epicenter offshore of northernmost
have as much as several minutes warning
before shaking waves from those quakes
struck them. The map also shows the
regional variation in the level of earthquakehazard in terms of the intensity of shaking
(as a percentage of g, the acceleration
of gravity) having at least a 2-percent
probability of being exceeded in a 50-year
period (from 2014 USGS hazard map). The
network of seismic (earthquake) sensors is
population centers. Illustration modified
from Allen (2013).
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How Does ShakeAlert Work?
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Why ShakeAlert EmphasizesIntensity, not Magnitude
The shaking you feel isdescribed by earthquake intensity
rather than magnitude. High in-tensities are what cause damage
in earthquakes.
Intensity
caused by earthquake waves
at a particular location -
single earthquake
Magnitude
amount of energy released in
an earthquake
area) of fault rupture
others, 2003) rapidly show the
distribution of intensity after anearthquake (http://earthquake.usgs.
gov/earthquakes/shakemap/).You can also report the
ground shaking you experienced
to help create intensity mapsthrough Did You Feel It (http://earth-
quake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/dyfi/).
Will the West Coast have anEarly Warning System Before or
After the Next Big Quake?
warning systems built them after a
devastating earthquake.Japan invested $600 million in
such a system after the 1995 Kobeearthquake killed 6,400 people.
Today, Japans system allows everycitizen to receive advance alert of
earthquake ground shaking from
Thanks to this system, no trains
derailed in the 2011 magnitude 9.0Tohoku earthquake, and according
to a poll in Japan, 90 percent of thecitizens think the system is worth
2013).
Other countries that built sys-tems after devastating earthquakesinclude:
Earthquake killed 87,587 people)
Earthquake killed 2,415)
Earthquake killed 17,127)
City Earthquake killed 10,153)
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Diagrammatic maps showing
northwestward spreading of ground shaking
(red and yellow) generated by theM7.8
ShakeOut scenario earthquake centered in
the Imperial Valley of southern California.
The times shown are times after the start
of the earthquake rupture at the epicenter
(white star). This scenario was part of
a comprehensive earthquake exercise
conducted in the State of California in 2008
(Perry and others, 2008).
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7/25/2019 USGS: Quake Early Warning System
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P-wave
On your screen: ShakeAlert
1
2
Real-time tracking of seismic waves from quakes epicenter.
Your current location tracked by GPS.3
Seconds remaining before seismic waves reach you.4
Expected intensity of quake at your current location.5
Estimated magnitude of quake.6
7 Intensity scale.
Real-time tracking of the fault rupture (updates intensity).
S-wave
1
2
3
4
5 6
7
A user of ShakeAlert receives a message like this on the screen of his computer. The
message alerts the user to how many seconds before the shaking waves arrive at their
location and the expected intensity of shaking at that site. The shaking intensity follows the
by everyone, people find it difficult to stand, and structures may suffer some damage. Thewarning message also displays a map with the location of the epicenter, the magnitude of
the quake, and the current position of the P and S waves. In this example, the alert is for the
ShakeOut scenario earthquake (Perry and others, 2008).
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References
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http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/fs2014308
ISSN 2327-6932 (online)
ISSN 2327-6916 (print)
For more information contact:
U.S. Geological Survey
Earthquake Hazards Program
Earthquake Early Warning
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/
earlywarning/
or
Erin R. [email protected]
This Fact Sheet and any updates to it
are available online at:
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2014/3083/
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