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Should You Drink the Kool-Aid?Venkatesh Rao
With contributions from:• Greg Rader• Kevin Simler• Jane Huang• BAR Group
11.27.2012 | USC Annenberg Innovation Lab
WARNING: VERY MUCH A WORK IN PROGRESS
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If the odds of making it as a [rockstar | movie star | entrepreneur | best-selling author | President] are so completely awful, why do people still try?
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the usual answer: PASSION AND TRUE BELIEF
the common motif is KOOL-AID
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PASSION+
TRUE BELIEF
IRONY
…very hard to study…
“Acting Dead” – Bruce Sterling
“Death wish” …
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We’ll mostly be hyann
Numbers
Conservative
Speculative
anecdata, gossip, TV shows, movies, cartoons, narrative theories, personality theorieshistories, biographies,media stories, blog posts,
Fiction
StoriesScienceDuckworth Grit scaleinstitutional talent flow patternsmacroeconomic studiesKauffman type researchcorrelations, distributions
Thick Descriptioninterviews, longitudinal studies a la Vaillantembedded reportingfund-raising war storiesincubator lorehacks, metis of startuppery
Simulationgame theory modelsagent based modelslong-term historical simswhat-ifs
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True Believers
Backstory: Gervais Principle (2009)
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VCs
Founders
Option LotteryPlayers
Silicon Valley
Ecosystem
initial attempt to map model to startups…circa 2009
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“Entrepreneurs are the New Labor”
long story short, 4 years later, this became…
…to polarized reactions
• “You nailed it!”• “That has not been my
experience”• “This whole thing is stupid, you
can’t analyze this way”
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not insiders vs. outsidersnot investors vs. foundersnot winners vs. losers
only difference: different cognitive processes
viewed different types of argument as valid
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The Clue at Quantico
“We use Myers-Briggs/Keirsey here in the Marine Corps…most of us are SJ types… Guardian/Protector… very passionate, very emotional…”
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If an important decision is to be made [the Persians] discuss the question when they are drunk, and the following day the master of the house. . . submits their decision for reconsideration when they are sober. If they still approve it, it is adopted; if not, it is abandoned. Conversely, any decision they make when they are sober is reconsidered afterwards when they are drunk.
– Herodotus
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http://tempobook.com
Character vs. Situation vs. Plot
Narrative Approach
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I should be thankful for my
good, secure job, others have it
even worse. This startup idea is not
worth the risk.
What’s the point of this so-called life? I might as well die. I AM
QUITTING TOMORROW AND
DOING A STARTUP.
Probabilities don’t change when drunk….
But subjective utilities do…
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So what happens when* you fail?
* rounded up from if
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Courage Wolf Meme
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Dutch Courage Wolf Meme
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Alan: Wait a minute, that’s your big secret? Alcohol?Charlie: Shhh. Don’t tell anybody.Alan: But isn’t that just a temporary solution.Charlie: It’s only temporary if you stop drinking.Alan: I like it.
Something Salted and Twisted [3.10] - Two and a Half Menhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AtituB9WRQU
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If an important decision is to be made [the Persians] discuss the question when they are drunk, and the following day the master of the house. . . submits their decision for reconsideration when they are sober. If they still approve it, it is adopted; if not, it is abandoned. Conversely, any decision they make when they are sober is reconsidered afterwards when they are drunk.
– Herodotus
what happens if you never sober up?
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The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man.
– Shaw
drunk
drunk
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Dragline: Stay down. You're beat. Luke: You're gonna hafta kill me...
drunk = punch drunk?
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“Learn to fetishize the pain of learning something new”
-- Andrea Kuszewski
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more than a death-wish though…
What’s the point of this so-called
life? I might as well die. I AM
QUITTING TOMORROW AND
DOING A STARTUP.
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unwavering Purpose
an UNFALSIFIABLE mission that cannot be invalidated by any amount of A/B testing or “customer development” or reframed away with “pivots”
Grit*
*Google “Duckworth grit scale…” for a more empiricist take…
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Mattie Ross: Who's the best Marshal? Sheriff: Hmm, I'd have to think on that….
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“Bill Waters is the best tracker. He's part Comanche; it is a pure joy to watch him cut for sign.”
This is the hacker-entrepreneur, see THE TURPENTINE EFFECT
/
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“…The meanest is Rooster Cogburn; a pitiless man, double tough. Fear don't enter into his thinking….”
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“…I'd have to say the fairest is L.T. Quinn; he always brings in his prisoners alive. Now, he might let one slip by every now and then, but...” This is the PRAGMATIC actor who sees no
problem with ACQUI-HIRING and other REASONABLE ADAPTATION models
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Mattie Ross: Where would I find this Rooster?
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Venture
Capitalist
to achieve unreasonable things, find someone with a death-wish and
leash them to a Purpose
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What happens when DOZENS of Matti Rosses need HUNDREDS of Rooster Cogburns?
BUT…
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can true grit be scaled?
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"They call him Shaykh-al-Hashishim.** He is their Elder, and upon his command all of the men of the mountain come out or go in... they are believers of the word of their elder and everyone everywhere fears them, because they even kill kings."
- Benjamin of Tudela
• Ancestor of Matti Ross• Founder of cult of assassins • Originator of fedayeen*
*from Wikipedia: “someone who redeems himself by risking or sacrificing his life”
** etymology/story of assassin == hashashin == hashish possibly apocryphal, but military-political-guerrilla tactics are not
Hassan-i Sabbah (1050 – 1124)
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Cognitive capture by a nascent organization at the edge of existing institutions defined by us-versus-them discourses based on boundaries created out of trial-by-fire bonding experiences
Kool-Aid Characterized
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The passion is sacred
patterns of argumentation that threaten it are systematically delegitimized
this is both a strength and a weakness
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We use words like honor, code, loyalty. We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punchline. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very freedom that I provide, and then questions the manner in which I provide it.
-- Col. Jessup
Code RED: extra-judicial killings
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In the 1960s and 1970s, classic social psychological studies were conducted that provided evidence that even normal, decent people can engage in acts of extreme cruelty when instructed to do so by others. However, in an essay published November 20 in the open access journal PLOS Biology, Professors Alex Haslam and Stephen Reicher revisit these studies' conclusions and explain how awful acts involve not just obedience, but enthusiasm too—challenging the long-held belief that human beings are 'programmed' for conformity.
http://medicalxpress.com/news/2012-11-human-obedience-myth-conformity.html#jCp
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The meanest is Rooster Cogburn; a pitiless man, double tough. Fear don't enter into his thinking….
…I'd have to say the fairest is L.T. Quinn; he always brings in his prisoners alive. Now, he might let one slip by every now and then, but...
Sociopath moral code(no institutions)
Rule of law (established institutions)
Kool-Aid law(emerging institutions)
04/12/2023 38Venkatesh G. Rao
We use words like honor, code, loyalty. We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punchline. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very freedom that I provide, and then questions the manner in which I provide it.
“passion”
“wealth/jobs”
“building”
“If you’re not actually doing a startup, you don’t get to talk…or at least, I don’t have to listen to
you.”
often “big company people”
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“You can’t handle the truthiness”
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40
True wolves are rare Sheep+Kool-Aid creates scalability
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Jung for “Startup Scene” (with help from Greg Rader)
ESFJPillar of
Community(Fe/Si)
ENFJSocial
Revolutionary(Fe/Ni)
ESTPPlayer
(Se/Ti)
ENTPInventor
(Ne/Ti)
ESTJ“New Labor”
(Te/Si)
ENTJHustler
(Te/Ni)
ESFPPromoter
(Se/Fi)
ENFPConference
Goer(Ne/Fi)
ISTJNew Org
Rank+File(Si/Te)
INTJHacker
(Ni/Te)
ISFPLoyalist
(Fi/Se)
INFP“Sharing Economy”
(Fi/Ne)
ISFJPillar of
Community(Si/Fe)
INFJIdealist
(Ni/Fe)
ISTPOrganization
Man(Ti/Se)
INTPArmchair Thinker
(Ti/Ne)
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http://www.xeromag.com/fun/personality.html
ESFJControl Freak
(Fe/Si)
ENFJCult Leader
(Fe/Ni)
ESTPConman
(Se/Ti)
ENTPMad Scientist
(Ne/Ti)
ESTJBureaucrat
(Te/Si)
ENTJEvil Overlord
(Te/Ni)
ESFPNational Enquirer Headline
(Se/Fi)
ENFPScientologist
(Ne/Fi)
ISTJThought Police
(Si/Te)
INTJOutside
Contractor(Ni/Te)
ISFPCrackpot
(Fi/Se)
INFPIdealist
(Fi/Ne)
ISFJMartyr
(Si/Fe)
INFJConspiracy
Theorist (Ni/Fe)
ISTPPsycho
Vigilante(Ti/Se)
INTPEgghead
(Ti/Ne)
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WARNING: neither prescriptive nor descriptive
Jung/Myers-Briggs measures preferences
You don’t always get what you want….
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Belief TypesOUTSIDERSNon-Drinkers
OLD INSTITUTION STEWARDS
Champagne Kool-Aid
OUTSIDERSHome-brewers
VANGUARDHappy hour
TRUE BELIEVERSKoolaidaholics
VANGUARDParty drinkers
OUTSIDENon-Drinkers
OLD INSTITUTION STEWARDS
Social drinkers
OUTSIDERSNon-Drinkers
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Tragedy(early part of an economic age)
Farce(late part…)
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Col. Jessep: You want answers? Kaffee: I think I'm entitled to… Col. Jessep: *You want answers?* Kaffee: *I want the truth!* Col. Jessep: *You can't handle the truth!* ….
Either way, I don't give a damn what you think you are entitled to.
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“In the work and its profits the Nation was an essential partner and equally entitled with the individual to share in the dividends.”
-- Andrew Carnegie, Gospel of Wealth II (1906)
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Which side is right?
For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong. – H. L. Mencken
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In the spirit of phillosophical bipartisanship, it would be pleasant to conclude that each of these traditions of political economy [Hamiltonian and Jeffersonian] has made its own valuable contribution to the success of the American economy… but that would not be true.
What is good about the American economy is largely the result of the Hamiltonian developmental tradition, and what is bad about it is largely the result of the Jeffersonian producerist school
-- Michael Lind, Land of Opportunity
For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong. – H. L. Mencken
04/12/2023 Venkatesh G. Rao 50
RL
H
J
Big Welfare State
Big Military, Big Corps,Big Banks
Eisenhower
Teddy Roosevelt
FDR
Andrew Jackson
Thomas Jefferson
Reagan
J. P. MorganCarnegie
Hoover
Rockefeller
OSRD-DARPANSF, NIH
MorrillGI Bill
#Occupy
Tea Party
National Parks
Homestead ActManifest Destiny
HippieMovement
Transition/Permaculture
Locavorism
NASA
Startup Scene
Startups are weird because they start out Jeffersonian but nurse deep Hamiltonian ambitions
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http://gameofpickaxes.com/
Planned201
4
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Tentative Conclusions
• Kool-Aid is how you scale true grit• It works through cognitive capture• Takes unironic passion, not all can do
it• It drives institutional creative
destruction• Transient phase moral hazard