US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from...

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Transcript of US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from...

Page 1: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table
Page 2: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

0%

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US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket Threshold

Top

Bra

cket

Thr

esho

ld/A

vera

ge In

com

e

Top MTR

Threshold/Average Income

Source: statistics computed by the author

Page 3: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

0%

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US Top MTR ordinary income vs. capital gains

Top MTR Top MTR (capital gains)

Source: statistics computed by the author

Page 4: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

Ordinary Income Earned Income Capital Gains Corporate Income

Year (1) (2) (3) (4)

1952-1963 91.0 91.0 25.0 521964 77.0 77.0 25.0 50

1965-1967 70.0 70.0 25.0 481968 75.3 75.3 26.9 531969 77.0 77.0 27.9 531970 71.8 71.8 32.3 491971 70.0 60.0 34.3 48

1972-1975 70.0 50.0 36.5 481976-1978 70.0 50.0 39.9 481979-1980 70.0 50.0 28.0 46

1981 68.8 50.0 23.7 461982-1986 50.0 50.0 20.0 46

1987 38.5 38.5 28.0 401988-1990 28.0 28.0 28.0 341991-1992 31.0 31.0 28.0 34

1993 39.6 39.6 28.0 351994-2000 39.6 42.5 28.0 35

2001 39.1 42.0 20.0 352002 38.6 41.5 20.0 35

2003-2009 35.0 37.9 15.0 35

Table A1.Top Federal Marginal Tax Rates

Notes: MTRs apply to top incomes. In some instances, lower income taxpayers may face higher MTRs because of incomecaps on payroll taxes or the so-called 33 percent "bubble" bracket following TRA 86. From 1952 to 1962, a 87% maximumaverage tax rate provision made the top marginal tax rate 87% instead of 91% for many very top income earners. From 1968to 1970, rates include surtaxes. For earned income, MTRs include the Health Insurance portion of the payroll tax beginningwith year 1994. Rates exclude the effect of phaseouts, which effectively raise top MTRs for many high-income filers. MTRs onrealized capital gains are adjusted to reflect that, for some years, a fraction of realized gains were excluded from taxation.Since 2003, dividends are also tax favored with a maximum tax rate of 15%.

Source: Saez et al. (2010)

Page 5: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

0%

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Top

.01%

MTR

(Fed

eral

Inco

me

Tax)

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

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2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

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US Top 0.01% Income Share and MTR (Piketty-Saez and Landais)

Top

0.01

% In

com

e Sh

are

Top 0.01% MTRTop 0.01% Share

Page 6: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

0%

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MTR

(Fed

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Inco

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Tax)

0.0%

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3.0%

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US Top 0.01% Income Share and MTR (Piketty-Saez and Landais)

Top

0.01

% In

com

e Sh

are

Top 0.01% MTRTop 0.01% Share

log(share)=a+0.617 (0.077)*log(1-MTR)+elog(share)=a+b*t+0.666 (0.071)*log(1-MTR)+e

Page 7: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

FIGURE 1Top Income Shares and Marginal Tax Rates, 1960-2006

Source: Updated version of Figure 8 in Saez (2004). Computations based on income tax return data.Income excludes realized capital gains, as well as Social Security and unemployment insurance benefits.The figure displays the income share (right y-axis) and the average marginal tax rate (left y-axis)(weigthed by income) for the top 1% (Panel A) and for the next 9% (Panel B) income earners.

A. Top 1% Income Share and Marginal Tax Rate

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Top 1% Marginal Tax Rate Top 1% Income Share

B. Next 9% Income Share and Marginal Tax Rate

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Next 9% Marginal Tax Rate Next 9% Income Share

Source: satistics computed by the author

Page 8: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

FIGURE 1Top Income Shares and Marginal Tax Rates, 1960-2006

Source: Updated version of Figure 8 in Saez (2004). Computations based on income tax return data.Income excludes realized capital gains, as well as Social Security and unemployment insurance benefits.The figure displays the income share (right y-axis) and the average marginal tax rate (left y-axis)(weigthed by income) for the top 1% (Panel A) and for the next 9% (Panel B) income earners.

A. Top 1% Income Share and Marginal Tax Rate

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Top 1% Marginal Tax Rate Top 1% Income Share

B. Next 9% Income Share and Marginal Tax Rate

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Next 9% Marginal Tax Rate Next 9% Income Share

Page 9: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

Top 1% Next 9%(1) (2)

A. Tax Reform Episodes

1981 vs. 1984 (ERTA 1981) 0.60 0.21

1986 vs. 1988 (TRA 1986) 1.36 -0.20

1992 vs. 1993 (OBRA 1993) 0.45

1991 vs. 1994 (OBRA 1993) -0.39

B. Full Time Series 1960-2006

No time trends 1.71 0.01(0.31) (0.13)

Linear time trend 0.82 -0.02(0.20) (0.02)

Linear and square time trends 0.74 -0.05(0.06) (0.03)

Linear, square, and cube time trends 0.58 -0.02(0.11) (0.02)

Elasticity estimates using top income share time seriesTable 1.

Notes: Estimates in panel A are obtained using series from Figure 1 and using the formulae=[log(income share after reform)-log(income share before reform)]/[log(1- MTR afterreform)-log(1- MTR before reform)]

Estimates in Panel B are obtained by time-series regression of log(top 1% income share)on a constant, log (1 - average marginal tax rate), and polynomials time controls from 1960to 2006 (44 observations). OLS regression. Standard Errors from Newey-West with 8 lags.

Source: Saez et al. (2010)

Page 10: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

FIGURE 5.The Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions

Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table 3, columns (1) and (5).The diamond line is the top 1% income share. The dotted line is the fitted regression curveincluding only the net-of-tax rate. The solid line is the fitted regression curve including time controls.The dashed line is the same fitted regression curve but freezes the marginal tax rate at the 1960 value.

6%

8%

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Inc

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Income Share(t)

A+1.58*log[1-MTR(t)]

A+0.62*log[1-MTR(t)]-.018*t+.00077*t^2

A+0.62*log[1-MTR(1960)]-.018*t+.00077*t^2

Page 11: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

Source: Feldstein (1995), p. 561

Page 12: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

Source: Feldstein (1995), p. 565

Page 13: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

Raj Chetty () Labor Supply Harvard, Fall 2009 166 / 227

Page 14: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

0%

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MTR

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Indi

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x)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

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70%

80%

90%

100%

US Top MTR ordinary income vs. capital gains

Top MTR Top MTR (capital gains)

Source: statistics computed by the author

Page 15: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

US Top 0.1% Income Share and Composition

0%

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12%19

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1936

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Source: Piketty and Saez QJE'03, updated to 2007

Capital GainsCapital IncomeBusiness IncomeSalaries

Page 16: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

Source: Goolsbee (2000), p. 365

Page 17: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

Source: Goolsbee (2000), p. 365

Page 18: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

The Top 0.01% US Income Share, Composition, and MTR

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%19

6019

6219

6419

6619

6819

7019

7219

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8419

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% s

hare

and

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Rat

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%

Wages S-Corp.

Partnership Sole Prop.

Dividends Interest

Other MTR

Source: Saez et al. (2010)

Page 19: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

US Top Marginal Tax Rate (Federal Individual Income Tax)

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Top

MTR

(Fed

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Indi

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com

e Ta

x)

Source: statistics computed by the author

Page 20: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

US Top 0.1% Income Share and Composition

0%

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1936

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1991

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2006

Source: Piketty and Saez QJE'03, updated to 2007

Capital GainsCapital IncomeBusiness IncomeSalaries

Page 21: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

Top 0.1% WAGE Share and Marginal Tax Rate in US

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Top

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GE

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Top 0.1% MTR Top 0.1% Share

Source: statistics computed by the author

Page 22: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

Top 0.1% WAGE income Share and MTR in Japan

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Top 0.1% MTR Top 0.1% Share

Source: statistics computed by the author

Page 23: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

Note: MTR is for Federal Income Tax only

SOURCE IS LANDAIS '09Charitable contributions as a % of total income and MTR on ordinary income

Top .01% tax units, United States, 1915-2005(fractiles computed by total income excluding capital gains)

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16%% of income

MTR

contributions

Page 24: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

Introduction Research Design Estimation Welfare Conclusion

I specifically focus on households located within 1 mile of the utility border

Edison (Southern California Edison) provides electricity for the north side

San Diego (San Diego Gas & Electric) provides electricity for the south side19 / 69

Source: Ito, 2011

Page 25: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

Introduction Research Design Estimation Welfare Conclusion

In contrast, they experience substantially different nonlinear pricing

Edison and San Diego: Cents per kWh in 2002

San Diego

Edison

10

15

20

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Monthly Consumption

22 / 69

Source: Ito, 2011

Page 26: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

DD = (mean % change in San Diego) - (mean % change in Edison)

Relative changes for SDG&E customers relative to SCE customers.

Panel A: Top Decile (90% - 100%) of Consumption Distributions

−3

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Marginal Price Average Price Consumption Source: Ito, 2011

Page 27: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

DD = (mean % change in San Diego) - (mean % change in Edison)

Relative changes for SDG&E customers relative to SCE customers.

Panel A: Top Decile (90% - 100%) of Consumption Distributions

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Marginal Price Average Price Consumption Source: Ito, 2011

Page 28: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

DD = (mean % change in San Diego) - (mean % change in Edison)

Relative changes for SDG&E customers relative to SCE customers.

Panel A: Top Decile (90% - 100%) of Consumption Distributions

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Marginal Price Average Price Consumption Source: Ito, 2011

Page 29: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

DD = (mean % change in San Diego) - (mean % change in Edison)

Relative changes for SDG&E customers relative to SCE customers.

Panel B. Fifth Decile (40% - 50%) of Consumption Distributions

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Marginal Price Average Price Consumption Source: Ito, 2011

Page 30: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

Introduction Research Design Estimation Welfare Conclusion

Estimation results: Marginal Price v.s. Average Price

2SLS Estimates: Marginal Price vs. Average Price

Distance from border 1 mile 0.5 mile(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

ln(MP) -.087 -.007 -.092 -.009(.007) (.015) (.011) (.020)

ln(AP) -.112 -.108 -.121 -.114(.006) (.013) (.011) (.017)

Observations 6,513,600 3,520,320

Dependent variable: ln(Electricity consumption)

Standard errors are clustered at city-deciles levels

48 / 69

Source: Ito, 2011

Page 31: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

Panel A. Marginal Tax Rate on Labor Income

Figure 2. Two Decades of Danish Tax Reform

Panel B. Marginal Tax Rate on Negative Capital Income

Panel C. Marginal Tax Rate on Positive Capital Income Panel D. Share of Taxpayers in the Three Tax Brackets

40

45

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75

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Marginal Tax Rate

Bottom bracket Middle bracket Top bracket

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75

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Marginal Tax Rate

Bottom bracket Middle bracket Top bracket

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45

50

55

60

65

70

75

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Marginal Tax Rate

Bottom bracket Middle bracket Top bracket

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Share of all taxpayers (%)

Bottom bracket Middle bracket Top bracketSource: Kleven and Schultz '12

Page 32: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

Figure 6. Graphical Evidence on the Effects of the 1987‐reform on Taxable Income

Panel A. Labor Income

105

110

115

120dex 1986=100)

DD1 Elasticity = 0.214 (0.011)DD2 Elasticity = 0.257 (0.013)

90

95

100

105

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

Labor  income (ind

Panel B. Positive Capital Income

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

Treatment 1 Treatment 2 Control

130

100) DD Elasticity = 0.278 (0.063)

100

110

120

pital In

come (index 1986=1

80

90

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

Positive Cap

Treatment Control

Notes: Panel A considers the effect on labor income under two treatment group definitions using the grouping in Figure 3. Treatment 1 includes all

groups in Figure 3 who experience an increase in the marginal net‐of‐tax rate on labor income as a result of the reform (1986‐1989 difference),

while treatment 2 includes the same groups except those in the middle bracket ("stay middle" group in Figure 3) who experience a relatively small

net‐of‐tax rate increase. The control group includes those groups in Figure 3 who experience a decrease in the marginal net‐of‐tax rate as a result

of the reform. Panel B considers the effect on positive capital income based on the grouping in Figure 5, with the treatment (control) group defined

as those who experience an increase (decrease) in the marginal net‐of‐tax rate on positive capital income resulting from the reform. In both panels,

only taxpayers who are in the sample in every year of the period under consideration (1984‐1993) are included, and income levels in 1986 are

normalized to 100 in both treatment and control groups (without loss of generality as identification come from percentage changes over time, not

f b l l l ) h l h h d l ll l i h i h f (1982 1986) d difrom absolute levels). Both panels show that trends are extremely parallel in the years prior to the reform (1982‐1986) and start to diverge

precisely in 1987 which is the first year with tax cuts. Most of the effect of the tax reform takes place within a period of 3 years. The figure also

reports basic difference‐in‐differences estimates of the elasticity of taxable income (standard errors in parentheses), comparing treatment and

control groups over the 3‐year interval from 1986 to 1989. The estimates DD1 and DD2 in Panel A refer to treatment 1 and treatment 2,

respectively. DD estimates in both panels are based on 2SLS regressions of log income on an after‐reform time dummy, a treatment‐group dummy

and the log marginal net‐of‐tax rate, the latter variable being instrumented by the interaction of the after‐reform and treatment‐group dummies.

Source: Kleven and Schultz '12

Page 33: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

Figure 1 : Total number of foreigners in different income groups

DD elasticity: Long−term: 1.62 (.16)Short−term: 1.28 (.15)

010

0020

0030

0040

00

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Control #1: .8 to .9*thresholdControl #2: .9 to .99*thresholdTreatment: earnings> threshold

Control 1= annualized income between .8 and .9 of thresholdControl 2= annualized income between .9 and .995 of threshold. DD specifications

Source: Kleven, Landais, Saez, Schultz QJE (2014)

Page 34: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

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Elasticity= .07 (.15)

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Top 1

% Incom

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(%

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40 50 60 70 80 90Top Marginal Tax Rate (%)

A. Top 1% Share and Top Marginal Tax Rate in 1960−4

Source: Piketty, Saez, Stantcheva AEJ-EP (2014)

Page 35: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

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Elasticity= 1.90 (.43)

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Top 1

% Incom

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(%

)

40 50 60 70 80 90Top Marginal Tax Rate (%)

B. Top 1% Share and Top Marginal Tax Rate in 2005−9

Source: Piketty, Saez, Stantcheva AEJ-EP (2014)

Page 36: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

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(p

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ts)

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Change in Top Tax Rate and Top 1% Share, 1960-4 to 2005-9

Source: Piketty, Saez, Stantcheva AEJ-EP (2014)

Page 37: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

Top tax rates and top 1% income share 1960-2009

Piketty, Saez & Stantcheva () Three Elasticities November 2012 33 / 62

Page 38: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

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−40 −30 −20 −10 0 10Change in Top Marginal Tax Rate (points)

A. Growth and Change in Top Marginal Tax Rate

Change in Top Tax Rate and GDP per capita growth since 1960

Source: Piketty, Saez, Stantcheva AEJ-EP (2014)

Page 39: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

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USUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUSUS

12

34

GD

P p

er

ca

pita

re

al a

nn

ua

l g

row

th (

%)

−40 −30 −20 −10 0 10Change in Top Marginal Tax Rate (points)

B. Growth (adjusted for initial 1960 GDP)

Change in Top Tax Rate and GDP per capita growth since 1960

Source: Piketty, Saez, Stantcheva AEJ-EP (2014)

Page 40: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

Top tax rates and average growth 1960-2009

) No or signi�cantly negativeUsing Growth e¤ect = top 1% share � e1 and e¤ect � 0.02) e1 � 0.2

Given e � 0.5, e3 � 0.3

Piketty, Saez & Stantcheva () Three Elasticities November 2012 36 / 62

Page 41: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

Australia

Belgium

Canada

France

Germany

Ireland

Italy

Netherlands

Norway

Sweden

Switzerland

United Kingdom

United States Elasticity= 1.97 (.27)1.

01.

52.

02.

53.

03.

5C

EO p

ay($

 milli

on, l

og­s

cale

)

.4 .5 .6 .7 .8Top Income Marginal Tax Rate

A. Average CEO compensation

Piketty, Saez & Stantcheva () Three Elasticities November 2012 50 / 62

Page 42: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

Australia

Belgium

Canada

France

Germany

Ireland

Italy

Netherlands

Norway

Sweden

Switzerland

United Kingdom

United States

Elasticity= 1.90 (.29)1.

01.

52.

02.

53.

03.

5C

EO

 pay

($ m

illio

n, lo

g­sc

ale)

 with

 con

trols

.4 .5 .6 .7 .8Top Income Marginal Tax Rate

B. Average CEO compensation with controls

Piketty, Saez & Stantcheva () Three Elasticities November 2012 51 / 62

Page 43: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

International CEO Pay: Governance

Piketty, Saez & Stantcheva () Three Elasticities November 2012 53 / 62

Page 44: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1916

19

21

1926

19

31

1936

19

41

1946

19

51

1956

19

61

1966

19

71

1976

19

81

1986

19

91

1996

20

01

2006

20

11

Capital Gains

Capital Income

Business Income

Salaries

Source: Piketty and Saez, 2003 updated to 2013. Series based on pre-tax cash market income including or excluding realized capital gains, and always excluding government transfers.

                                             US  Top  0.1%  Pre-­‐Tax  Income  Share  and  Composi:on

Page 45: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

01

00

Ma

rgin

al T

ax R

ate

s (

%)

05

10

15

20

25

To

p 1

% I

nco

me

Sh

are

s (

%)

1913 1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013Year

Top 1% Share Top MTR

Top 1% (excl. KG) MTR K gains

Tax Avoidance: Top 1% Income Shares and Top MTR

Page 46: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

01

00

Ma

rgin

al T

ax R

ate

(%

)

01

00

20

03

00

40

05

00

Re

al In

co

me

pe

r a

du

lt (

19

13

=1

00

)

1913 1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013Year

Top 1% Top MTR

Bottom 99%

Top 1% and Bottom 99% Income Growth

Page 47: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

01

00

Ma

rgin

al T

ax R

ate

s (

%)

05

10

15

20

25

To

p 1

% I

nco

me

Sh

are

s (

%)

1913 1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013Year

Top 1% (excluding Capital Gains) Top MTR

Top 1% Income Share and Top MTR

Page 48: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25% 19

62

1967

1972

1977

1982

1987

1992

1997

2002

2007

2012

Top

Mar

gina

l Tax

Rat

e

Top

1% In

com

e Sh

are

Top 1% pre-tax income share and top tax rates

Top 1% income share Top MTR (right scale) K gains top MTR

Source: Top 1% income share: Piketty and Saez, 2003 updated to 2015, series including realized capital gains. Top MTR include Federal individual tax + uncapped FICA payroll tax.

Page 49: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12% 19

62

1967

1972

1977

1982

1987

1992

1997

2002

2007

2012

Realized capital gains

Income excluding capital gains

USTop0.1%IncomeShareandComposi7on

Source: Piketty and Saez, 2003 updated to 2015. Series based on pre-tax cash market income including realized capital gains, and always excluding government transfers.

Page 50: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9% 19

62

1967

1972

1977

1982

1987

1992

1997

2002

2007

2012

Dividends

Other capital income

Business income

Salaries

Source: Piketty and Saez, 2003 updated to 2015. Series based on pre-tax cash market income ex cluding realized capital gains, and always excluding government transfers.

USTop0.1%IncomeShareandComposi7on(excl.Kgains)

Page 51: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90% 1962

1966

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

2010

2014Ch

arita

blegivingoftop

1%to

meanincome

Charitable Giving of Top 1% Income Earners

Mean charitable giving of top 1% divided by mean income [left y-axis]

Source: The figure depicts average charitable giving of top 1% incomes (normalized by average income per family) on the left y-axis.

Source: Saez TPE 2017

Page 52: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90% 1962

1966

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

2010

2014

Top1%

incomeshare

Charita

blegivingoftop

1%to

meanincome

Charitable Giving of Top 1% Income Earners

Mean charitable giving of top 1% divided by mean income [left y-axis]

Top 1% Income Share [right y-axis]

Source: The figure depicts average charitable giving of top 1% incomes (normalized by average income per family) on the left y-axis. For comparison, the figure reports the top 1% income share (on the right y-axis).

Source: Saez TPE 2017

Page 53: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

010

2030

4050

6070

8090

100

Mar

gina

l Tax

Rat

es (%

)

05

1015

2025

Top

1% In

com

e Sh

are

(%)

1913 1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013Year

Top 1% (excluding Capital Gains) Top MTR

Top 1% Reported Income Share and Top MTR

Page 54: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

010

2030

4050

6070

8090

100

Mar

gina

l Tax

Rat

es (%

)

05

1015

2025

Top

1% In

com

e Sh

ares

(%)

1913 1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013Year

Top 1% Share Top MTRTop 1% (excl. KG) MTR K gains

Tax Avoidance: Top 1% Income Shares and Top MTR

Page 55: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

010

2030

4050

6070

8090

100

Mar

gina

l Tax

Rat

e (%

)

010

020

030

040

050

0R

eal I

ncom

e pe

r adu

lt (1

913=

100)

1913 1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013Year

Top 1% Top MTRBottom 99%

Top 1% and Bottom 99% Income Growth

Page 56: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

Top 1% Pre-Tax Income Share, 1913-2018

Piketty-Saez-Zucman (comprehensive income)

Piketty-Saez (reported income with capital gains)

Page 57: US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket ThresholdThe Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

Top 1% Pre-Tax Income Share, 1913-2018

Piketty-Saez (reported income with capital gains)