U.S. employment rate data and trends: March 2014

U.S. employment situation: September 2013

Release date: October 22, 2013

After an earlier pause, diversified

growth characterized gains in March

U.S. employment situation: March 2014 April 4, 2014

What were March’s bright spots and challenges?

Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

2

• The U.S. economy added 192,000

jobs in March, returning to above-

average gains and reversing a sharp

slowdown in activity.

• Unemployment remained unchanged

at 6.7 percent.

• 95.0 percent of jobs lost during the

recession have been regained; the

U.S. economy is just 0.3 percent

below previous peak employment.

• PBS’ record high of over 19.0 million

jobs has helped to push office using

employment far above its previous

peak.

• Growth at the subsector level was

diverse; no subsector received a

majority of gains. This was true for

both monthly and year-on-year

additions.

• Unemployment for high school and

college graduates dropped 10 basis

points even though the official

unemployment rate remained neutral.

• Tech is still a leader and is slowly

bouncing back from a moderate

slowdown in previous years.

• Unemployment insurance claims are

hovering in the low 300,000s and on

the verge of going below the 300,000

mark.

• Geographically, job growth is

spreading. While energy and tech

hubs still lead, the Sunbelt is picking

up slack, particularly in smaller

markets that have become focal

points for corporate expansion due to

low cost of business and labor as

well as tax incentives.

• T

• Total unemployment (including

disaffected workers) rose by 10

basis points to 12.7 percent even

as it approaches the 10-year

average.

• A slowdown in monthly PBS gains

combined with flat growth in

information and financial activities is

pushing down office-using

industries’ share of additions.

• Goods-producing growth is slowing

as service-providing sectors need

to pick up the slack.

• Labor force participation for both

high school grads and bachelor’s

degree holders is still at record

lows.

• Temporary help services growth

shows little sign of slowing.

Overview Bright spots Challenges

OVERVIEW

March’s 192,000-job increase represents the first

instance of above-average growth in 2014 22

0,00

0

121,

000

120,

000

360,

000

226,

000

243,

000

96,0

00

110,

000

88,0

00

106,

000

122,

000

221,

000

183,

000

164,

000 19

6,00

0

360,

000

226,

000

243,

000

96,0

00

110,

000

88,0

00

160,

000

150,

000

161,

000

225,

000

203,

000

214,

000

197,

000

280,

000

141,

000

203,

000

199,

000

201,

000

149,

000

202,

000

164,

000

237,

000 27

4,00

0

84,0

00

144,

000

197,

000

192,

000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Oct

-10

Dec

-11

Feb

-11

Apr

-11

Jun-

11

Aug

-11

Oct

-11

Dec

-11

Feb

-12

Apr

-12

Jun-

12

Aug

-12

Oct

-12

Dec

-12

Feb

-13

Apr

-13

Jun-

13

Aug

-13

Oct

-13

Dec

-13

Feb

-14

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge


3

OVERVIEW

Revisions bring three-month employment growth to

533,000 jobs; unemployment unchanged at 6.7 percent

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-1,000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

(%)

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

Monthly employment change Unemployment rate


4

OVERVIEW

90.0%

92.0%

94.0%

96.0%

98.0%

100.0%

102.0%

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76

1973 1981 1990 2001 2007

77 months into the cycle, total employment is now only

0.3 percent below prior peak levels

Rec

over

ed jo

bs (

%)

Past recessions (40 years)


Pre-recession employment level

5

OVERVIEW

Jobs lost during recession…

Jobs gained during recovery…

95.0 percent of jobs have been recovered from the

recession; now 437,000 jobs below pre-recession peak


6

OVERVIEW

Office-using jobs lost

during recession…

Office-using jobs gained

during recovery…

All office-using jobs have been recovered, but there is now

an emphasis on management, tech and design


7

OVERVIEW

-9.0

-1.0

0.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

6.0

7.0

7.1

7.9

8.0

19.0

21.3

27.0

28.5

29.0

34.0

57.0

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

Nondurable goods

Manufacturing

Motor vehicles and parts

Government

Financial activities

Information

Other services

Mining and logging

Wholesale trade

Transportation and warehousing

Durable goods

Construction

Retail trade

Health care and social assistance

Temporary help services

Leisure and hospitality

Education and health services

Professional and business services

1-month net change (thousands)

A diversified recovery is apparent in March, with

growth not dominated by a single industry


8

OVERVIEW

PBS

Education and health


All other subsectors

Top three

subsectors

responsible for

62.5 percent of

monthly

growth.

-29.0

-19.0

-1.0

34.3

38.0

40.0

57.0

72.0

73.0

94.8

118.4

151.0

247.4

289.0

315.2

334.0

406.0

667.0

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Information

Government

Nondurable goods

Motor vehicles and parts

Mining and logging

Other services


Manufacturing

Durable goods

Transportation and warehousing

Wholesale trade

Construction

Temporary help services

Health care and social assistance

Retail trade

Education and health services


Professional and business services

12-month net change (thousands)

PBS


Education and health

Retail trade

Manufacturing


All other jobs

Year-on-year, core subsectors’ share of growth declined

by 19.9 percentage points as well


9

Core subsectors added 64.1 percent

of all jobs over the past 12 months.

OVERVIEW

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Change in '000s jobs

After slowing somewhat, monthly private sector

additions are seeing new signs of life

Private sector hiring up 4.4

million since March 2012

Public sector shed 96,000 workers

since March 2012


10

BRIGHT SPOT

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Une

mpl

oym

ent (

%)

Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college

Similar to the national trend, educational attainment-

based unemployment remains stable

3.4%

6.3%


11

BRIGHT SPOT

Tech still leading, while energy, mining and utilities is

more volatile

-11.0

-9.0

-7.0

-5.0

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm

Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through Feburary 2014.

12

12-m

onth

% c

hang

e (jo

bs)

BRIGHT SPOT

Tech is up near recovery norms again after seeing

slowdown in recent months Year-on-year percent employment growth


13

BRIGHT SPOT

Initial unemployment insurance claims continue to

remain in the low 300,000s at recovery lows

Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor

14

BRIGHT SPOT

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

Cla

ims

Initial claims 4-week moving average

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Consumer confidence index

Unemployment rate

Consumer confidence is on the rise even though

unemployment has not declined noticeably in months

Source: JLL Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics

15

BRIGHT SPOT

Bay Area, Texas and the Sunbelt continue to see

fastest employment growth; spreading geographically


16

Austin

4.2%

BRIGHT SPOT

Orlando

3.3%

Jacksonville

3.2%

Houston

3.1%

Raleigh-

Durham

3.2%

San

Francisco

3.2%

Silicon Valley

4.3%

Midwestern and East Coast markets still lag the rest

of the country


Hampton

Roads

-0.5%

17

CHALLENGE

Westchester

County

0.3%

Philadelphia

0.4%

Cleveland

0.4%

New Jersey

0.3%

Pittsburgh

0.0%

Total unemployment fell by rose by 10bp and is

struggling to hit the 10-year average

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Total unemployment U-6 10-year average


18

CHALLENGE

A slowdown in growth combined with improvements

in other sectors impacting office-using’s share of gains


19

CHALLENGE

While service-providing employment has seen a sharp

rise, it its still only average; goods’ gains declining

-1,000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

Goods-producing Service-providing


20

CHALLENGE

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

12

Jan-

13

Jan-

14

58

59

60

61

62

63

College graduates

High school grads no college

Labor force participation still suppressed, although

rising 30bp for high school graduates

Col

lege

gra

duat

e pa

rtic

ipat

ion

(%)

High school graduate participation (%

)


21

CHALLENGE

Office-using job growth is slowing due to flat

information and financial activities employment

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Information Professional and business services Financial activities

PBS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010.

In March 2014, it represented all 95.0 percent of new office jobs.


22

CHALLENGE

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

Onl

ine

help

wan

ted

ads

Online help wanted ads

Unemployment rate

After an increase in February, online help wanted ads

fall even as unemployment remains stable

Source: JLL Research, Conference Board

23

CHALLENGE

Temporary help services continue to rise at increasingly

faster monthly rates during 2014

1,000.0

1,200.0

1,400.0

1,600.0

1,800.0

2,000.0

2,200.0

2,400.0

2,600.0

2,800.0

3,000.0

-100.0

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mon

thly

net

cha

nge

in jo

bs (

ths)

Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment

Temporary em

ployment (ths)


24

CHALLENGE

Sector focus: mining and logging employment may be

small, but its growth certainly is not


25

SECTOR

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Min

ing

and

logg

ing

empl

oym

ent (

thou

sand

s)

Since 2010, mining and logging has added 231,000 jobs

+34.6% growth since 2010

Oil and gas extraction leads year-on-year job gains

4.1

13.9

5.4

Logging Oil and gas extraction

Support activities for mining

Employment in mining except for oil

and gas declined year-on-year

©2014 JLL Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.

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U.S. employment rate data and trends: March 2014

Economy & Finance

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