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Thursday, 12 March 2009, 04:28

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 ISLAMABAD 000516

SIPDIS

EO 12958 DECL: 08/04/2018

TAGS PREL, PTER, PGOV, PK

SUBJECT: LITTLE MOVEMENT ON RECONCILIATION

REF: A. ISLAMABAD 506 B. ISLAMABAD 508

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, for reasons 1.4 (b)(d)

1. (C) Summary. In a last-ditch effort to

reduce tensions with the Sharif brothers ahead

of the start of the lawyers' march on March

12, President Zardari offered Pakistan Muslim

League (PML) leader Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain

the post of Senate leader if PML would form a

government with the Pakistan People's Party

(PPP) in Punjab but will do little to pacify

Nawaz Sharif or the lawyers. Shujaat is

considering the deal, which will be sealed by

the March 12 vote in the Senate it could end

governor's rule in Punjab--if Shujaat can keep

the PML forward block in line. Other

compromise efforts have failed, although the

UK High Commission is probing for the various

parties' positions in advance of a possible

HMG mediation effort. After seeing Interior Minister Malik and

Awami National Party leader Asfundyar Wali Khan, Ambassador

will see Shujaat March 11 and the Sharifs on March 12.

2. (C) Amid reports of possible targeted killings and Mumbai

style attacks during the march, the GOP began arresting

Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI)

members and some civil activists. Interior Minister Malik

assured Ambassador he had no plans to arrest the Sharifs or

key civil society leaders like Aitzaz Ahsan, but caveated thisby saying he might have to arrest Imran Khan or others "who

did not obey the law." Lawyers and JI activists already have

begun infiltrating Islamabad if a significant number of

demonstrators cannot enter the capital, we expect protests in

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US embassy cables: Pakistani armychief hints at unseating Zardariguardian.co.uk, Tuesday 30 November 2010 22.06 GMT

Summary

As street protests

threaten to topple the

Pakistani government,the US ambassador

discusses ways to end

the crisis with leaders.

In one meeting the head

of the Pakistani army,

General Ashfaq Kayani,

tells her that he may be

forced to "persuade"

President Asif Ali

Zardari to resign. The

ambassador says the

comments are not an

indicator of an

imminent army coup.

Key passage highlighted

in yellow.

Read related article


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multiple areas, especially in Punjab, beginning March 12.

Accordingly, we are issuing a Warden Notice March 11.

3. (C) During Ambassador's fourth meeting in a week with Chief

of Army Staff (COAS) General Kayani on March 10, he again

hinted that he might, however reluctantly, have to persuade

President Zardari to resign if the situation sharply

deteriorates. He mentioned Asfundyar Wali Khan as a possible

replacement. This would not be a formal coup but would leave

in place the PPP government led by PM Gilani, thus avoiding

elections that likely would bring Nawaz Sharif to power. We do

not believe Army action is imminent. We do believe Kayani was

laying down a clear marker so that, if he has to act, he can

say he warned the U.S. in advance and gave us ample

opportunities to pressure both sides to back down. Kayani is

trying to leverage what he considers predominate U.S.

influence over Zardari, instead of seeking a direct

confrontation that could provoke an unhelpful civil-military

clash.

4. (C) Two weeks ago, Zardari was staring at victory on all

fronts today, he recognizes he must compromise with the

Sharifs and might well be looking over his shoulder at the

Army. Even if the lawyers' march fizzles--and it may--Nawaz

retains the high moral ground in public opinion and can

continue attacking a now weakened Zardari. We should encourage

Zardari to continue efforts to ease tensions and ask the

Saudis and the UAE to weigh in with their respective allies.

This could be a protracted process. End Summary.

Mediation/Confrontation/Collapse

--------------------------------

5. (C) There are three political scenarios in play as tensions

between President Zardari and the Sharif brothers rise ahead

of the start of the lawyers' march on March 12:

mediation/accommodation, which resolves the Sharifs'

disqualification from holding public office, ends governor's

rule in Punjab and addresses the judicial issue

confrontation, which leads to violence and possible Army

intervention and a fizzled march that sets the stage for

continued conflict.

Mediation/Accommodation

-----------------------

6. (C) On March 11, Awami National Party (ANP) leader

Asfundyar Wali Khan described to Ambassador and Polcouns his

ISLAMABAD 00000516 002 OF 004

mediation efforts with Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam leader Fazlur

Rehman over the past week. Zardari, he asserted, agreed to

request a review of the Supreme Court decision disqualifying

the Sharifs, said that after a positive outcome to that review

Shahbaz Sharif would be reinstated as Chief Minister Punjab,

and agreed to a conference to discuss restoring the judiciary.

In return, Nawaz should delay the lawyers' march.

7. (C) Nawaz reportedly agreed but then changed his mind and

demanded reversal of the court decision, an end to governor's


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rule in Punjab and reinstatement of the former Chief Justice.

Under pressure, Nawaz relented and agreed to the judicial

conference idea but offered only to ask the lawyers to

consider postponing the march, and said all this had to be

accomplished in a day. Asfundyar noted that it was impossible

to demand a immediate review of a Court decision that had not

been formally issued. He told Nawaz that he would win the next

election and should just be patient by pressing now, he

threatened a political vacuum that would be filled by the

Army. This time, warned Asfundyar, Nawaz might not be sent

into a comfortable exile. Nawaz refused to budge.

8. (C) Asfundyar said that Zardari was surrounded by advisors

who were not politicians, so he was not being encouraged to

compromise Nawaz's chief advisor was Chaudhry Nisar who, with

the Sharif brothers disqualified, stood the best chance of

being the next PML-N Prime Minister. Nawaz had provoked the

Court by launching a campaign over the doctored exam scores of

the Chief Justice's daughter, and this had prompted the ruling

against Shahbaz. Asfundyar attributed the crisis 70 percent to

Nawaz and 30 percent to Zardari. In Asfundyar's view, therewas an absence of trust on both sides, and what was needed was

a cease-fire in which to conduct reasonable negotiations. If

the march fizzled, there could be time to work out a

compromise if the march sparked violence, there was "nothing

to do but pray."

9. (C) Asfundyar welcomed the idea of UK mediation but said it

was the U.S. view that counted most. He also urged that we

contact the UAE to pressure Zardari and the Saudis to pressure

Nawaz to back off. ANP had seen PML-N members distributing

cash envelopes to a stream of supporters this week like

Zardari, Asfundyar said he believed the money was coming from

the Saudis. Asfundyar was open to continue mediating if asked.

He reminded Ambassador that Zardari had offered him the job of

Prime Minister immediately after the February 2008 elections.

10. (C) In a separate meeting with Ambassador and Polcouns, UK

High Commissioner Brinkley said he had received approval to

approach the various sides, discern their bottom lines, and

report back to London. HMG had not yet decided whether to take

on any role of mediator or guarantor. The UK planned to make a

public statement today urging the parties to resolve their

differences democratically and eschew violence. Brinkley wasscheduled to see PM Gilani and possibly Zardari and Shahbaz

Sharif on March 11, and Chief of Army Staff General Kayani and

Asfundyar Wali Khan on March 12.

11. (C) Late on March 11, the PML confirmed press reports that

the PPP had reversed course (Ref B) and now had offered

Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain the post of leader of the Senate if

PML agreed to join PPP in a coalition government in Punjab.

Shujaat will meet PM Gilani later March 11 on March 12, the

newly constituted Senate would vote on a party leader. If the

deal goes through, it would end governor's rule in Punjab but

it is unclear if a PPP-led government will reduce tensions. It

remains unclear, however, if Shujaat can hold on to his 28-35

member "forward block" of Nawaz supporters to seal this deal.

Without the PML forward block, the PPP cannot form a

government.


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Confrontation

-------------

12. (C) In a March 11 meeting with Ambassador and Polcouns,

Interior Minister Malik described his efforts to mediate with

the lawyers to convince them to hold a peaceful march outside

of Islamabad, but he said the lawyers so far have spurned the

GOP's proposals. Malik plans to block roads into Islamabad

ISLAMABAD 00000516 003 OF 004

beginning March 13. Ambassador warned that efforts to arrest

the Sharifs or high-profile activists like Aitzaz Ahsan would

not be well received in Washington or elsewhere. Malik denied

he had any intention of arresting the Sharifs or Aitzaz but

qualified this by saying "unless they do not stop, but I will

tell you first. I have to maintain law and order." He said he

might have to arrest Imran Khan and some JI activists. (Note:

On March 10, Punjab police began arresting 200-250 JI student

activists and low-level PML-N workers. Mission contacts report

many activists already are going underground. Neither the

Sharifs nor Aitzaz Ahsan have been arrested. Geo TV News,

which the GOP has criticized for being anti-government,

disappeared from cable TV. See septel for updates.)

13. (C) Malik said he had received serious threat information

regarding a Mumbai style attack in Karachi on March 13-14 by

the Jandallah group that previously had attacked the U.S.

Consulate. There were also reports of a proposed targeted

killing, against whom was unclear. JI leaders were giving

their students "black coats" so they could look like lawyers

and already were infiltrating Islamabad. Malik expected crowds

of at least 4,000-5,000 in the capital, even with road

closures.

14. (S) In four conversations with Ambassador this week, Chief

of Army Staff (COAS) General Kayani hinted that, however

reluctantly, he might have to urge Zardari to resign, if

conditions deteriorate. He did not offer any red lines. Kayani

indicated that Asfundyar Wali Khan or someone else broadly

acceptable might be an appropriate replacement for Zardari. We

do not believe Army action is imminent, but we do believe

Kayani was laying down a marker that, if he had to intervene,

the U.S. had been forewarned and given many opportunities to

avoid intervention by pressuring both Nawaz and Zardari.

Kayani made it clear that regardless of how much he disliked

Zardari, he distrusted Nawaz even more. The scenario Kayani

hinted at was one in which he would pressure Zardari to resign

(and presumably leave the country). This would not be an

official Army "coup" it would leave the PPP government led by

Prime Minister Gilani in place and preclude the need for

elections that likely would bring Nawaz to power.

15. (S) Kayani hinted at disquiet among his corps commanders

who believe Zardari is corrupt and has not been paying enough

attention to Pakistan's economic and security challenges. ISIDG Pasha highlighted to Ambassador his concerns about

Zardari's alleged corruption on the flight to the U.S. for the

strategic review, and we have multiple sources demonstrating

Army complaints about Zardari. Kayani believes the U.S. has


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the most influence over Zardari, and he knows we are

Pakistan's most important ally, especially for increasing the

capacity of the Pakistani Army. Kayani told Ambassador he has

talked directly to Zardari, but he does not appear to have

conveyed the seriousness of Army concerns about Zardari or the

security situation vis a vis the march. (Note: Kayani may be

seeking to avoid a confrontation that would prompt Zardari to

make a disastrous decision to try and oust the COAS.)

A Fizzle

--------

16. (C) At this point, everything appears to rest on the

outcome of the lawyers' march. PML-N does not have a proven

reputation for putting demonstrators on the streets, although

JI does. By applying the road closure/detention tactics that

worked for Musharraf in 2007 to stop pro-Nawaz demonstrations,

the government might be able to avoid a serious clash this

time. But if a policeman fires into the crowd or a terrorist

attacks protesters, all bets are off.

17. (C) There is also the likelihood that the march will not

occur as scheduled. Blocked from Islamabad, there could be

multiple flash points in the Punjab, early demonstrations in

Islamabad, and a series of confrontations with the police.

This could be a protracted clash of wills.

18. (C) Comment: Two weeks ago, Zardari was staring victory in

the face after negotiating a PPP win in Senate elections,

setting Nawaz up for an entirely legal

ISLAMABAD 00000516 004 OF 004

disqualification, and looking toward successful Friends and

Donors meetings that would provide the financial support

needed to bolster his sagging popularity. By over-reaching to

make a grab for Punjab without doing his homework on vote

counting in Punjab, Zardari now needs to compromise with the

Sharifs and might well be looking over his shoulder at the

Army. Even if the march fizzles, Nawaz retains the high moral

ground in the public's eyes and will use it to continue

attacking a weakened Zardari. Zardari needs to win back the

military's confidence.

PATTERSON

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US Embassy Cables_ Pakistani Army Chief Hints at Unseating Zardari _ World News _ Guardian.co

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