Us college access programs complex adaptives system nov2011
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AEA November 2011 Anaheim California Treating the US Educational System as a Complex Adaptive System and Investigating Computational Simulation of Federally-Funded Access Program Impacts Prepared by: Margaret Cahalan [email protected] Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education Council for Opportunity in Education (COE)
Transcript of Us college access programs complex adaptives system nov2011
Percent of high school sophomores in low quartile of socioeconomic status by race/ethnicity
AEA November 2011 Anaheim California
Treating the US Educational System as a Complex Adaptive System and Investigating Computational Simulation of Federally-Funded Access Program Impacts
Prepared by:Margaret [email protected]
Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher EducationCouncil for Opportunity in Education (COE)
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Topics----Invitation to:Explore systems concepts
Use what for me is a new tool to help in understanding policy choices---dynamic modeling softwareVensim Tool
Walk through examples in college accessspecifically related to President Obamas goals to make US once again be first in college attainment
Worked as evaluator of federal programsseeped in experimental and quasi-experimental linear modeling of program effectivenessInterest for a long time is systems work---but qualitative thinking ---no attempt to specify these relationships mathematicallySocial systems---Multiple loop non-linear feedback systems---dynamic mathematical modelsExplore using tools of dynamic systems modeling in evaluation of policy decisions potential outcomes.Using Vensim Software Toolmuch like Stella
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Definitions of key termsSystemGreek word susiatani cause to stand togetherComplex system is a system that consists of a large number of agents that interact with each other in various waysSystem is adaptive if these agents change their actions as a result of events in the process of interaction (Vriend, 1994)Social systems are complex dynamic non-linear with multiple feedback loops
Relevant Complex Systems ConceptsNested or fractal qualitypatterns replicate at levelsSelf similarityparts & whole similarAttractors and basins what settles down to over time and attracted toFeedbacknegative dampens-positive amplifiesSaddle pointsunstable-areas -- direction may be more important than strength-tippingBifurcation-new systemssudden jumpsSelf-organizationself iterationEmergent behavior of system-patterns emergedifferent rule sets
Entrainment (competitors become more alike)Ultrastabilitychange internal to adaptSensitivity to initial conditions-small differences large impactsChaos-deterministic patterns emerge-- sensitive to initial conditionsDisconnect between proximity in time and cause and effectsmall can bring massive change and large seemingly lessunintended and unforeseenImportance of timing and directionSynchronicity- temporally coincident occurrences of acausal events-Jung
Steps in Modeling (Andrew FordModeling the Environment 2010)Get to know systemGet specific about dynamic problem Constructstock (level) and flow diagramDraw causal loopsEstimate the parameter valuesRun reference modelCheck units and SensitivityExperiment or test potential impact of policies
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Know systems and get specific about problem of Obamas 2020 GoalsLift US to be first in college attainmentonce againUS ranked 12th of 36 in percent of 25 to 34 with Tertiary (BA and associate) degrees---Korea first, Canada secondIncrease 25 to 34 year olds with college from 15 million to 26 millionIncrease work force 25 to 64:College 46 million to about 63 million--collegeBA and above from about 32 million to about 45 million
Obamas goals are adaptive to wider global systems but to achieve nested systems must change
Five major features of system to capture in modelsDynamic large increases in attainment high school and postsecondary over last 60 yrs.High levels of inequality characterize systemRole of education sorting in keeping equilibrium of work value inequality and legitimizing through the meritocracy and income stratificationRole of government in mediating the inequality effectsclosing the gaps mission of US Department of educationequal access---Pell and College access support programs (TRIO, Gear UP) Education driver of innovation role for jobs
High inequalityschools very segregated by SES and growing more soLow and decreasing proportion of public financingroughly 53 percent family/student; 8 percent feds; 38 percent state and localRising costshigher than inflationreduction in Pell buying power---$12,000 in 1973 when started in todays dollars compared to $5000 Debt burden increasing in amountLink to employment-major determinant of income differentialsGrowth in poor (50 percent eligible for free or reduced in 2009)Growth in children with diagnosed disabilities (11 percent---20 percent in high poverty schools)Growth in at-risk minorities
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Education and Class Workforce SystemInequalityMeritocracyInnovation and Change Opportunity and mobililtyStability and equilibrium
Dynamic change ---Note Large Increase Over Time in High School DiplomaSaturationlevelingS curve
10Looking at trends in race/ethnicity, similar to census data, we see the the growth in the proportion of Hispanic (from 8 to 16 percent) and Asian from 1.6 to 3.9 percent of the total. Overall minority students went from 25 percent to 40 percent in the period.
The percent of students for whom English is the first language went from 86 to 95 percent. Note that 2002 was the first year of having a multi-race category and that this was chosen by 4 percent of students.
Note Some Convergence in State Variation
11Im going to go over the next three figures very quickly. They graph percent in SES quartiles by race/ethnicity with the middle two quartiles combined. Just to note that there has been some change.Looking at the lowest quartile in this first figure, we see that the percent of black sophomores in this quartile went down from 46 to 35 percent, and the American Indian from 38 to 31 percent --and the percent of Asians went up somewhat from 23 to 28 (up from 18 percent in 1990). Hispanics were 48 percent of the lowest quartile in 1980 and 50 percent in 2002
Exit exams and high school graduation: Cohort Survival Rate
Note Large Increase in BA, but larger gaps
13Looking at trends in race/ethnicity, similar to census data, we see the the growth in the proportion of Hispanic (from 8 to 16 percent) and Asian from 1.6 to 3.9 percent of the total. Overall minority students went from 25 percent to 40 percent in the period.
The percent of students for whom English is the first language went from 86 to 95 percent. Note that 2002 was the first year of having a multi-race category and that this was chosen by 4 percent of students.
Rising BA and above Expectations in all SES groups NCES high school longitudinal studies (HS&B, NELS, ELS) BA and above expectations
Composite achievement test score and educational expectations of BA
Progress---One of TRIO Eligibility CriteriaFirst GenerationNCES Data on Percent of High School Students with at Least one Parent with a BA Degree (Data from NLSY and ELS:2002)
Income gapsHow many times richer are the richest fifth than the poorest fifth?Wilkinson & Pickett, The Spirit Level
www.equalitytrust.org.ukInequality...How much richer are the richest 20% in each country than the poorest 20%?
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Bachelors degree by age 24 by family income quartiles:1970-2009-nationally about 30 percent
Source: US Census Bureau, 1970-2006-P20 table 14, Report on SchoolEnrollment; 2007-2009 unpublished Census tabulations. Analysis byTom Mortenson; Graph prepared by the Pell Institute of the Council for Opportunity in Education (COE)(October 2011)
Schools highly segregated by SES &--strong inverse relationship of school poverty rates and school proficiency scores.
Figure reads: 1.6 percent of the highest poverty schools were in the 90 -100th percentile in reading compared with 36.1 percent of lowest poverty schools. Conversely, 0.5 percent of the lowest poverty schools (under 20% freelunch) were at or below the 10th percentile on reading proficiency ; while 33.8 percent of highest poverty schools (80% or above free lunch) were at or below the 10th percentile .
Wilkinson & Pickett, The Spirit LevelIndex of: Life expectancyMath & Literacy Infant mortalityHomicidesImprisonmentTeenage births TrustObesityMental illness incl. drug & alcohol addictionSocial mobility
www.equalitytrust.org.ukHealth and social problems are worse in more unequal countriesIndex of health and social problems
2020
Wilkinson & Pickett, The Spirit Level
www.equalitytrust.org.ukMore children drop out of High School in more unequal US states
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Uncomfortable in the Inequality Federal College Access Programs Designed to Mitigate
Federal college access programChanges inschool culture
Increased student engagement, self esteem, career goals, and college preparation
BImproved collegegoing and success rates
CChanges (e.g. supplemental programs, increased collaboration and professional development among staff, use of data, rigorous course enrollment and success, strength finding and asset building among students)
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Evidence from evaluations that these programs can be effective (Random Assignment National Evaluation of Upward Bound6 year BA attainment)
However serve only small minority of eligible population
Estimated tax impact of UB compared to estimated cost based on average length of participation4.9 times more taxes based on earnings
Rate of Return to College Education Increased over Last Two Decades
Source: Hill et al. The value of higher education , 2003, p. 15
Limiting factorequilibrium of job placement with educational system-BLS new jobs by 2018
BA and Associates 27 percent BA and Associates23 % Percent BA or above4.7 % Associates5.7 % Postsecondary voc certificate66.6 % On the job training --Longer/medium/shorter (38.8 %)
Employment change: 2008-2018
Projections of Job Requirements Through 2018 (Carneval, Smith, Strohl 2010)
Developing 20/20 Vision on the 2020 Degree Attainment Goal, (A. Nichols Pell Institute, 2011)If could raise the bottom half to top halfwould easily meet goalTopalready has almost 60 percent in BA alone (59 percent)Bottom half of country has 12 percent BA attainmentIf got bottom up to top then would have 2.9 million per year or 29 million more in 10 years
Dynamic ModelsLevels----stocksPopulation of collegeset initial level Flows---number coming into system over timeRates of flows---(observe what happens when change)Auxiliary variables related to flowsCan be exogenous orResult of defined feedbacks from previous times
Levels are also known as stocks, accumulations, or state variables. Levels change their values by accumulating or integrating rates. This means that the values of Levels change continuously over time even when the rates are changing discontinuously. Rates, also known as flows, change the value of levels. The value of a rate is not dependent on previous values of that rate; instead the levels in a system, along with exogenous influences, determine the values of rates. Intermediate concepts or calculations are known as auxiliaries and, like rates, can change immediately in response to changes in levels or exogenous influences.
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Rate of FlowsIncreases and DecreasesIncreasesDiversions awayHigh expectations of students themselvesPotential of college access programs to work if funded and implemented more widelyLack of high paying jobs for high school gradsSocial pressure to go to collegepresidential callschool climate--peersCareers specification of requirementscertificationsFederal, state, local and non-profit sector programs and encouragementAvailability of credit and grantsFocus on college readinessInequality measurements of achievement (direct and indirect)Raising standards to get out of high schoolReductions in school college access counselorsEconomic downturn of familiesRising costs and decline in public share of costsincrease family contributionsFear of debtIncrease in percent of k-12 students who have disabilitiesIncrease in percent of students who are in poverty---50 percentDifficulty of peers who went to college finding jobsLow self efficacy to meet challengesRemediation requirements
Simple model of BA increase
Simple ModelBA growthPopulation-----INTEG (conferrals-births)Initial value ---32 millionConferrals-births = Rate of conferral*Population * (1-Population * Amount of jobscarrying capacity)Rate of conferral is a constant in simulation (.3)
Amount of jobscarrying capacity = 38 million
Simple BA increase modelChanged carrying to 45 millionChange rate to .58keep limits the same
Increase rates to show system dynamicsOvershoot and crash (bifurcating)---2.0Chaosincrease to 3.0
A bit more complex
Models with innovation and inequality in rates as auxiliariesEstimating 25-64 year old college rateSee innovation allows job capacity to increase
Population base = 46.7 millionAmount of jobscarrying capacity = 63 million + Increase from innovationIncrease from innovation = Population * .10Rate of top half = .588Rate of bottom half = .120
Model 50 percent increase for the bottom half Features From .12 to .18Innovation = Popuation * .10Allows the carrying to move from 63 million up to 70 millionSee leveling off due to carrying constraints even with innovationKept top half at .588
More complex model
Reduction in inequality due to impact of increased reach of college access programs and parent educationIncreased ED levelsMore jobs
Figure 1.Percent of population 25 years of age and older who have a high school diploma or equivalent by race/ethnicity: Decennial Census Data 1940-2000
Note: Based on Decennial census. White category does not exclude those of Hispanic Origin. Hispanic Origin can be of any race.SOURCE: U.S. Census Population Division Census 2000 PHC-T-41. A Half-Century of Learning: Historical Statistics on Educational Attainment in the United States, 1940 to 2000_1235559176.xlsChart1
7.6697843442194026.1242637428194024.4584964526
13.7195036.4329751568195034.3
21.6539463179196043.2196041.1
31.4197054.5197052.3442971128
51.24468.869.666.5
63.149.877.979.175.2
72.2652.4283.5885.454818332180.4
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7.6697843442194026.1242637428
13.7195036.4329751568
21.6539463179196043.2
31.4197054.5
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Figure 3.Percent of total population 25 and older with high school diploma or equivalent by state: 1940-2000
NOTE: This distribution ranged from 15 percent in Arkansas to 41 percent in the District of Columbia and 37 percent in California in 1940; and ranged from 73 percent in Mississippi to 88 percent in 4 states, Utah, Wyoming, Minnesota, and Alaska in the year 2000.SOURCE: U.S. Census Population Division Census 2000 PHC-T-41. A Half-Century of Learning: Historical Statistics on Educational Attainment in the United States, 1940 to 2000_1235560430.xlsChart1
7.6697843442194026.1242637428194024.4584964526
13.7195036.4329751568195034.3
21.6539463179196043.2196041.1
31.4197054.5197052.3442971128
51.24468.869.666.5
63.149.877.979.175.2
72.2652.4283.5885.454818332180.4
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7.6697843442194026.1242637428
13.7195036.4329751568
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United States
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Figure 2.Percent of population 25 years of age and older who have a BA degree: Decennial Census Data 1940-2000
Note: Based on Decennial census. White category does not exclude those of Hispanic Origin. Hispanic Origin can be of any race.SOURCE: U.S. Census Population Division Census 2000 PHC-T-41. A Half-Century of Learning: Historical Statistics on Educational Attainment in the United States, 1940 to 2000_1235810060.xlsChart1
7.6697843442194026.1242637428194024.4584964526
13.7195036.4329751568195034.3
21.6539463179196043.2196041.1
31.4197054.5197052.3442971128
51.24468.869.666.5
63.149.877.979.175.2
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7.6697843442194026.1242637428
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4.621120775119401.31556466
6.212015239219502.1711645321
7.719603.5247252942
10.661814688119704.4
16.27.68.4
20.39.211.4
24.410.414.26
ALL
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19704.411.31970
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United States
Chart4
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Sheet2
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Chart5
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Chart6
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United States
Chart7
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25.611.827.726.714.2918.829.531.131.925.7-26.916.118.419.420.89.929.7-9.723.811.918.76.637.716.9-0.91730.7-7.717.915.914.419.3-24.219.217.917.518.49.127.3-8.920.419.422.2221.715.311.12119.723.1
19.25.215.522.18.15.814.721.632.424.919-5.80.214.11311.113.33.623.2-5.513.38.314.62.631.211.9-5.112.915.5-7.412.610.611.114.8-26.213.59.98.113.73.320-16.913.212.711.2-12.723.15.73.915.83.417.6
15.72.97.317.15.55.313.917.129.320.616.3-4.9-1.913.911.110.211.4321.1-8.710.211.213.76.624.49.80.89.210.1-3.911.63.913.815-1912.35.67.312.47.120.3-4.48.810.19.2-5.1183.81.318.32.714.8
11.023.83.6511.682.775.1612.3710.8424.0615.489.33-0.264.0311.948.239.628.131.0116.850.877.3610.4611.1710.218.458.49-3.39.594.943.2410.143.9413.3510.42-8.3710.313.597.3411.579.1615.941.586.163.726.682.4212.75.31-1.518.142.1111.32
..Alabama
..Alaska
..Arizona
..Arkansas
..California
..Colorado
..Connecticut
..Delaware
..District of Columbia
..Florida
..Georgia
..Hawaii
..Idaho
..Illinois
..Indiana
..Iowa
..Kansas
..Kentucky
..Louisiana
..Maine
..Maryland
..Massachusetts
..Michigan
..Minnesota
..Mississippi
..Missouri
..Montana
..Nebraska
..Nevada
..New Hampshire
..New Jersey
..New Mexico
..New York
..North Carolina
..North Dakota
..Ohio
..Oklahoma
..Oregon
..Pennsylvania
..Rhode Island
..South Carolina
..South Dakota
..Tennessee
..Texas
..Utah
..Vermont
..Virginia
..Washington
..West Virginia
..Wisconsin
..Wyoming
United States
Chart8
12.97.734.49.136.133.530.518.829.316.52.122.236.132.819.517.721.110.25.92.7-2.728.520.612.218.35.917.221.120.97.425.43027.86.93.819.515.118.821.121.812.30.712.734.629.3-2.2-2.322.910.224.43025.6
-3.610.833.39.640.829.727.920.242.722.18.716.137.935.11416.224.5-9.36.7-510.629.617.811.743.915.422.628.342626.629.52.11.713.619.929.623.826.61.86.6-3.340.525.7-3.97.828.6-4.425.625.129.3
21.144455856914.422169163536.878603046736.583620133443.125482382234.064443465628.726849291328.393383911249.644433517522.327869824334.141736909511.717290397442.96972048638.543182933225.52508601634.843470646636.967403970115.215732316611.08854948716.300513888824.890097307830.139149906723.319687147531.350749782919.84252068916.79862769299.883711146342.204914970440.326076357514.129473677626.980405430426.211981317631.00823986437.225392068411.266687884817.205323739331.662810245639.002930534526.76752884530.419338677324.677340880120.829307134921.73711461237.983879887834.49077234110.972515313221.714429686136.94792636260.891615365232.339230099423.048294266633.0348183321
..Alabama
..Alaska
..Arizona
..Arkansas
..California
..Colorado
..Connecticut
..Delaware
..District of Columbia
..Florida
..Georgia
..Hawaii
..Idaho
..Illinois
..Indiana
..Iowa
..Kansas
..Kentucky
..Louisiana
..Maine
..Maryland
..Massachusetts
..Michigan
..Minnesota
..Mississippi
..Missouri
..Montana
..Nebraska
..Nevada
..New Hampshire
..New Jersey
..New Mexico
..New York
..North Carolina
..North Dakota
..Ohio
..Oklahoma
..Oregon
..Pennsylvania
..Rhode Island
..South Carolina
..South Dakota
..Tennessee
..Texas
..Utah
..Vermont
..Virginia
..Washington
..West Virginia
..Wisconsin
..Wyoming
United States
Chart9
New Mexico44.6560294724
Mississippi45.0599076327
District of Columbia46.1604346779
Arkansas46.3800877332
West Virginia48.5322152237
Texas50.1830422952
Alabama50.8291425178
Louisiana51.0878355545
Oklahoma51.3234630546
South Carolina52.7402309666
Arizona53.2485286288
Idaho53.4102754628
Kentucky53.6834759644
Tennessee54.2347392217
Montana54.7422331243
North Carolina55.0273733156
Georgia57.4715397714
California57.552578181
South Dakota57.6125445291
Florida57.6979680425
Missouri58.5168619455
Oregon58.637523496
US59.8271903759
Nevada60.4607705407
Kansas61.0482267925
New York61.3524670289
Ohio61.6021792987
Indiana61.6798171425
Utah61.7688623904
Iowa63.3313737624
Nebraska63.3613330762
Michigan63.444172561
Pennsylvania63.8246835322
Illinois63.8671049064
Maine64.1893184365
Washington64.4846462825
Wyoming64.9183763512
Colorado65.2907633155
Delaware65.5950717513
Alaska65.9217313775
Wisconsin66.1476974376
Rhode Island66.7631625085
Vermont66.9068167416
North Dakota67.6629699757
Hawaii68.7970048385
Virginia69.7269278911
Minnesota72.3899708128
New Jersey72.8006521861
Maryland73.3940780849
Massachusetts73.4151127192
Connecticut75.2839339661
New Hampshire78.3280618581
Chart10
64.6668.4272.5376.7467.7774.1274.8668.49199061.1462.786.7979.3876.5775.0387.5581.9969.0556.6777.6272.7777.0170.0689.7564.2572.2183.385.5477.2274.0179.8268.2165.1367.9788.0674.0477.5271.6579.0869.6358.5485.6867.8964.0683.0682.2773.6477.1977.2884.2278.5771.18
60.2468.2363.1973.126473.087564.74199559.0756.674.9679.5275.4870.1585.0977.3670.3358.7372.2673.9476.0468.9586.7560.172.785.5884.3265.1374.9283.5164.0361.8165.586.874.5975.3268.8777.3172.6455.1386.5763.7759.7579.1189.3971.9373.3775.4181.6678.268.62
57.8464.7158.3574.8765.3471.8873.5265.84199657.8155.0174.7879.679.9770.1185.375.8368.0857.9372.4473.8775.7869.6185.2656.7671.2482.7582.9565.4374.982.8863.4261.9662.3989.0270.6473.0266.6176.2571.3754.3786.5763.3958.4278.4389.9275.5172.2476.1280.3977.8468.06
57.3163.8362.1169.7666.1872.374.0462.97199756.0353.2362.5678.7276.5370.4184.7274.1167.7854.9871.1271.1775.8168.977.2956.1470.6381.0482.2166.4168.2585.7957.960.961.3486.9469.7177.1567.475.7270.8952.4380.9355.8658.9477.8381.1275.4771.1974.4579.5276.9867.15
59.8464.9661.4773.267.2571.4873.3868199856.9551.266278.4976.9570.8484.2273.2966.8455.4478.5170.6575.6372.2383.6556.4171.6880.0784.769.8574.4578.257.961.0260.7985.4273.2272.167.275.277053.275.6859.9761.0282.380.9373.1570.9375.3378.8577.467.76
55.566.3560.272.6868.3270.4371.8264.12199955.9550.4459.6877.8275.3970.683.0774.5465.7255.0675.5571.697572.584.7455.9672.3878.4886.370.6672.9679.6359.3859.2559.7884.569.5473.1266.5674.8668.651.7971.9254.8760.5783.2280.2673.6174.1475.7478.0676.5567.18
58.962.359.373.668.770.57760.7200055.252.364.276.971.168.28374.465.856.276.673.374.868.783.7567378.183.868.873.986.160.358.658.784.169.672.867.474.969.55174.254.861.983.978.773.970.874.8787567.1
58.263.870.573.268.769.372.964.5200154.651.4617870.967.982.874.564.258.576.174.475.374.782.356.972.577.38068.675.388.36157.859.48470.973.466.275.369.64871.955.361.983.377.774.865.973.478.272.967.3
59.459.366.473.969.770.675.663.120025653.262.978.372.768.382.475.962.359.275.973.574.478.784.758.573.177.981.668.275.390.659.858.460.883.971.472.568.877.971.249.479.258.562.583.978.173.867.571.178.673.368.2
63.662.577.674.47172.677.665.8200356.554.264.27973.57181.876.265.460.477.174.77377.585.860.375.479.181.960.176.395.161.760.562.483.474.472.470.777.773.85281.557.96584.380.275.369.471.979.673.669.7
60.362.564.375.370.773.275.965.420045554.164.979.675.570.184.57764.868.677.573.774.669.183.660.377.278.683.850.775.791.361.862.564.284.77674.172.478.472.252.181.56367.785.182.673.270.273.17875.169.7
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
DC
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
US
Sheet5
State10PCSR90PCSR95PCSR96PCSR97PCSR98PCSR99PCSR00PCSR01PCSR02PCSR03PCSR04State10
19901995199619971998199920002001200220032004state
Alabama6560585760565958596460Alabama
Alaska6868656465666264596363Alaska
Arizona7363586261605971667864Arizona
Arkansas7773757073737473747475Arkansas
California6864656667686969707171California
Colorado7473727271707169717373Colorado
Connecticut7575747473727773767876Connecticut
Delaware6865666368646165636665Delaware
DCDC
Florida6159585657565555565755Florida
Georgia6357555351505251535454Georgia
Hawaii8775756362606461636465Hawaii
Idaho7980807978787778787980Idaho
Illinois7775807777757171737476Illinois
Indiana7570707071716868687170Indiana
Iowa8885858584838383828285Iowa
Kansas8277767473757475767677Kansas
Kentucky6970686867666664626565Kentucky
Louisiana5759585555555659596069Louisiana
Maine7872727179767776767778Maine
Maryland7374747171727374747574Maryland
Massachusetts7776767676757575747375Massachusetts
Michigan7069706972736975797869Michigan
Minnesota9087857784858482858684Minnesota
Mississippi6460575656565657596060Mississippi
Missouri7273717172727373737577Missouri
Montana8386838180787877787979Montana
Nebraska8684838285868480828284Nebraska
Nevada7765656670716969686051Nevada
New Hampshire7475756874737475757676New Hampshire
New Jersey8084838678808688919591New Jersey
New Mexico6864635858596061606262New Mexico
New York6562626161595958586163New York
North Carolina6866626161605959616264North Carolina
North Dakota8887898785858484848385North Dakota
Ohio7475717073707071717476Ohio
Oklahoma7875737772737373737274Oklahoma
Oregon7269676767676766697172Oregon
Pennsylvania7977767675757575787878Pennsylvania
Rhode Island7073717170697070717472Rhode Island
South Carolina5955545253525148495252South Carolina
South Dakota8687878176727472798282South Dakota
Tennessee6864635660555555595863Tennessee
Texas6460585961616262636568Texas
Utah8379787882838483848485Utah
Vermont8289908181807978788083Vermont
Virginia7472767573747475747573Virginia
Washington7773727171747166686970Washington
West Virginia7775767475767573717273West Virginia
Wisconsin8482808079787878798078Wisconsin
Wyoming7978787777777573737475Wyoming
US7169686768676767687070US
Chart11
25319902602562562672702611990255259251271261267278199025724619902611990264275199019902802761990273270256261250281264263271266260199019901990258199019902641990256274272262
262200027126126220002822000200020002662632782772832000284272259284276283278288254274287281268200020002602762802832832722812000273266200026327527528327720002712000277274
2622792742722692812812812005274272266281278282284284274268281278292277290262276286284270285284263280282287283271282281272281287271281279287284285269285282278
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
US
Sheet4
avmats90avmatsc0avmatsc5
BirwghtFaminc20199020002005
New Mexico9245Alabama253262262
Mississippi8845Alaska279
District of Columbia8946Arizona260271274
Arkansas9146Arkansas256261272
West Virginia9149California256262269
Texas9250Colorado267281
Alabama9051Connecticut270282281
Louisiana8951Delaware261281
Oklahoma9251District of Columbia
South Carolina9053Florida255274
Arizona9353Georgia259266272
Idaho9353Hawaii251263266
Kentucky9154Idaho271278281
Tennessee9154Illinois261277278
Montana9255Indiana267283282
North Carolina9155Iowa278284
Georgia9157Kansas284284
California9358Kentucky257272274
South Dakota9358Louisiana246259268
Florida9258Maine284281
Missouri9259Maryland261276278
Oregon9459Massachusetts283292
US9260Michigan264278277
Nevada9260Minnesota275288290
Kansas9361Mississippi254262
New York9261Missouri274276
Ohio9262Montana280287286
Indiana9262Nebraska276281284
Utah9362Nevada268270
Iowa9363New Hampshire273285
Nebraska9363New Jersey270284
Michigan9263New Mexico256260263
Pennsylvania9264New York261276280
Illinois9264North Carolina250280282
Maine9464North Dakota281283287
Washington9464Ohio264283283
Wyoming9165Oklahoma263272271
Colorado9165Oregon271281282
Delaware9166Pennsylvania266281
Alaska9466Rhode Island260273272
Wisconsin9366South Carolina266281
Rhode Island9267South Dakota287
Vermont9467Tennessee263271
North Dakota9368Texas258275281
Hawaii9269Utah275279
Virginia9270Vermont283287
Minnesota9472Virginia264277284
New Jersey9273Washington285
Maryland9173West Virginia256271269
Massachusetts9273Wisconsin274285
Connecticut9275Wyoming272277282
New Hampshire9378US262274278
Chart12
Chart14
24.06
18.45
18.14
16.85
15.94
15.48
13.35
12.7
12.37
11.94
11.68
11.57
11.32
11.17
11.02
10.84
10.46
10.42
10.31
10.2
10.14
9.62
9.59
9.33
9.16
8.49
8.23
8.13
7.36
7.34
6.68
6.16
5.31
5.16
4.94
4.03
3.94
3.8
3.72
3.65
3.59
3.24
2.77
2.42
2.11
1.58
1.01
0.87
-0.26
-1.5
-3.3
-8.37
Chart15
49.6444335175
43.1254823822
42.969720486
42.2049149704
40.3260763575
39.0029305345
38.5431829332
37.9838798878
37.2253920684
36.9674039701
36.9479263626
36.8786030467
36.5836201334
34.8434706466
34.4907723411
34.1417369095
34.0644434656
33.0348183321
32.3392300994
31.6628102456
31.3507497829
31.008239864
30.4193386773
30.1391499067
28.7268492913
28.3933839112
26.9804054304
26.767528845
26.2119813176
25.525086016
24.8900973078
24.6773408801
23.3196871475
23.0482942666
22.3278698243
21.737114612
21.7144296861
21.1444558569
20.8293071349
19.842520689
17.2053237393
16.7986276929
15.2157323166
14.4221691635
14.1294736776
11.7172903974
11.2666878848
11.0885494871
9.8837111463
6.3005138888
0.9725153132
0.8916153652
Chart17
27.0944335175
18.5878698243
18.542520689
18.4792300994
16.9985494871
16.1773408801
15.398239864
13.9931829332
13.3168492913
13.1948183321
13.0644296861
12.0536201334
11.9804054304
11.807528845
11.4496871475
11.4238798878
11.3433839112
11.2119813176
11.1444558569
11.0691499067
11.0053920684
10.4507497829
10.4153237393
10.2249149704
10.1817369095
9.8834706466
9.8593386773
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8.9174039701
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8.515086016
8.0529305345
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7.8007723411
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6.297114612
6.0079263626
4.849720486
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4.0421691635
3.3094736776
2.6782942666
2.4225153132
1.6693071349
1.0957323166
0.8805138888
0.2972903974
-1.4983846348
-3.2362888537
-8.3133121152
Gap
Chart18
52.50973
55.94144
56.33618
56.71696
57.47797
58.86604
60.58884
60.66709
60.73471
60.82849
62.19983
62.52792
63.59652
63.69631
66.15266
66.38089
66.77678
68.17072
68.95527
69.55756
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70.01848
70.98356
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72.07274
72.34954
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72.96975
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77.77866
77.8048
79.00829
79.0998
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80.56951
81.16221
82.45499
83.10632
84.54951
Chart19
51.4
51.1
47.8
45.7
41.3
40.9
40.4
39.1
37.5
36.8
36.2
35.2
34.6
34.4
34
33.3
30.3
29.4
29.3
26.6
25.7
25
23.5
19.3
16.9
16.6
16.2
15.8
15.7
15.3
15.3
14.1
14
13.2
12.1
11.8
11.5
11.4
9.9
9.7
9
7.8
7.7
6.3
5
3.5
3.3
2.6
2.5
2.4
2
..District of Columbia
Sheet3
black whiteGap between black and non-his white
State97whsd40whsd50whsd60whsd70whsd80whsd90whsd20State86bkhsd40bkhsd50bkhsd60bkhsd70bkhsd80bkhsd90bkhsd20State194019501960197019801990GapGAPnhwhd80nhwhd90nhwhd20hhsd80hhsd90hhsd20198019902000StateGAPStateGapStatenhwhd20bkhsd20StateGapStatepugradipp1824posStatepugradipGT9900GA9900GH9900GB9900GW9900P18und00Percent 18 years olds black or hispanic
..Alabama21.827.936.547.060.670.378.0..Alabama3.97.212.821.441.454.666.9..Alabama1821242619161111..Alabama60.770.278.147.873.856.913-421..District of Columbia24..District of Columbia50..Alabama78.166.911.1..District of Columbia27..Alabama60.742.2..South Carolina53..Alabama611504765032280036818..Alabama37.2853638594..Alabama35..Texas51
..Alaska63.275.388.591.192.5..Alaska63.583.388.288.7..Alaska63125344..Alaska88.691.292.780.980.478.381114..Mississippi18..California43..Alaska92.788.74.0..Florida19..Alaska63.628.4..Nevada56..Alaska115685543064417484..Alaska3.8122406639..Alaska8..New Mexico51
..Arizona32.641.548.360.376.182.485.4..Arizona32.660.675.181.7..Arizona3342482816744..Arizona78.485.089.444.051.752.5343337..Wisconsin18..Idaho43..Arizona89.481.77.7..Mississippi19..Arizona70.041.4..Georgia56..Arizona68646..Arizona0..Arizona37..California48
..Arkansas18.825.633.243.958.468.677.5..Arkansas3.66.19.717.236.351.565.8..Arkansas1519232722171212..Arkansas58.468.777.849.359.141.291037..Louisiana17..Nebraska42..Arkansas77.865.812.1..Wisconsin18..Arkansas71.838.2..New Mexico57..Arkansas36657295891843326872..Arkansas23.0051559047..Arkansas25..Mississippi46
..California38.048.752.463.676.681.183.3..California49.468.575.680.5..California384952148633..California79.785.889.843.645.046.7364143..South Carolina16..Nevada40..California89.880.59.3..Louisiana17..California71.049.6..Florida57..California4823555495619551041619183299..California8.6282924402..California48..Georgia41
..Colorado32.243.852.264.280.286.189.5..Colorado55.274.480.884.4..Colorado32445296555..Colorado82.188.092.248.658.358.1343034..Florida15..Oregon39..Colorado92.284.47.8..South Carolina16..Colorado72.549.2..District of Columbia59..Colorado58710156611696322841589..Colorado5.4982115483..Colorado27..Florida41
..Connecticut25.337.744.456.971.580.986.3..Connecticut11.920.027.138.156.867.073.9..Connecticut1318171915141212..Connecticut72.081.487.341.553.558.5312829..New York13..Illinois39..Connecticut87.373.913.3..New York15..Connecticut79.353.8..Louisiana61..Connecticut4397711306043626130386..Connecticut14.2369875162..Connecticut26..Louisiana40
..Delaware26.538.247.058.271.780.385.0..Delaware6.811.918.128.750.163.274.2..Delaware2026293022171111..Delaware71.780.385.552.960.157.1192028..Virginia13..Texas38..Delaware85.574.211.3..Illinois14..Delaware60.742.0..Alabama61..Delaware1015022846831576276..Delaware31.1034482759..Delaware29..South Carolina39
..District of Columbia49.760.661.175.088.793.194.4..District of Columbia17.428.533.543.956.363.870.4..District of Columbia3232283132292424..District of Columbia89.495.397.560.152.647.8294350..Connecticut12..North Carolina37..District of Columbia97.570.427.1..Connecticut13..District of Columbia58.964.1..Delaware61..District of Columbia5289924413976114..District of Columbia75.1748912838..District of Columbia..Maryland38
..Florida34.142.547.456.369.577.082.5..Florida4.68.414.524.444.656.467.1..Florida2934333225211515..Florida70.779.385.654.257.263.3172222..Illinois12..Kansas37..Florida85.667.118.6United States13..Florida57.545.4..Mississippi61..Florida22374339503855659139121543..Florida26.4316649012..Florida41..Arizona37
..Georgia24.026.638.846.360.774.981.8..Georgia3.76.011.520.641.758.672.5..Georgia20212726191699..Georgia60.674.982.758.566.248.52934..Arkansas12..Washington37..Georgia82.772.510.2..Virginia13..Georgia56.342.4..Tennessee62..Georgia125388264741414978168627..Georgia39.7015663381..Georgia41..New York36
..Hawaii62.574.485.789.392.7..Hawaii76.491.594.292.9..Hawaii63-2-6-5-0-0..Hawaii86.690.093.264.473.981.5221612..Pennsylvania12..Arizona37..Hawaii93.292.90.3..Arkansas12..Hawaii63.748.3..New York63..Hawaii15629113588203013077..Hawaii1.9259069678..Hawaii12..Alabama35
..Idaho30.740.948.759.674.680.986.6..Idaho52.774.482.882.6..Idaho31414970-244..Idaho74.881.387.438.743.444.4363843United States11..Arkansas37..Idaho87.482.64.8..New Jersey12..Idaho77.839.6..Alaska64..Idaho20038..Idaho0..Idaho10..New Jersey35
..Illinois24.836.041.754.368.779.185.0..Illinois14.122.627.438.254.665.273.0..Illinois1113141614141212..Illinois69.580.187.036.745.048.5333539..Michigan11..Iowa35..Illinois87.073.014.0..Pennsylvania12..Illinois76.352.8..Hawaii64..Illinois16455452552257434968101454..Illinois21.2501671184..Illinois34..Nevada34
..Indiana25.336.742.754.067.376.583.2..Indiana12.018.525.135.654.365.474.9..Indiana13181818131188..Indiana67.476.683.547.962.657.9201426..Alabama11..Utah34..Indiana83.574.98.5..Michigan11..Indiana73.045.0..North Carolina66..Indiana810497202296963968228..Indiana11.8928055867..Indiana14..Illinois34
..Iowa29.038.646.559.171.780.386.9..Iowa15.622.130.439.760.670.177.3..Iowa1317161911101010..Iowa71.880.487.154.164.252.3181635..Delaware11..Georgia34..Iowa87.177.39.9..Texas11..Iowa82.554.7..Michigan66..Iowa413946951137149737873..Iowa3.6164661545..Iowa6..North Carolina33
..Kansas29.040.948.960.774.282.487.9..Kansas16.023.331.439.960.971.079.7..Kansas13181721131188..Kansas74.382.688.653.258.151.7212537..Massachusetts10..Colorado34..Kansas88.679.78.9..Delaware11..Kansas75.052.0..Texas67..Kansas396838143121334131721..Kansas8.419222337..Kansas15United States30
..Kentucky16.423.128.339.153.364.774.2..Kentucky7.913.218.229.249.761.773.2..Kentucky81010104311..Kentucky53.364.774.343.174.059.110-915..North Carolina10United States33..Kentucky74.373.21.1..New Mexico11..Kentucky69.743.5..Washington68..Kentucky56678274398605249301..Kentucky10.6778644271..Kentucky11..Delaware29
..Louisiana25.330.041.049.963.774.280.0..Louisiana3.25.210.420.240.553.163.1..Louisiana2225313023211717..Louisiana63.774.380.157.867.669.16711..Ohio10..Wisconsin32..Louisiana80.163.117.0..Alabama11..Louisiana60.643.1..Oregon69..Louisiana638698097612988332014..Louisiana46.7879565987..Louisiana40..Virginia29
..Maine28.937.743.254.768.778.985.5..Maine64.474.287.684.7..Maine293843-10-6-911..Maine68.778.885.566.083.879.23-56..Minnesota10..Oklahoma32..Maine85.584.70.9..Massachusetts11..Maine74.041.8United States70..Maine170361436712616570..Maine0.7396102371..Maine2..Colorado27
..Maryland23.735.543.755.969.980.886.3..Maryland6.412.719.632.156.670.679.0..Maryland17232424131077..Maryland69.880.986.872.570.361.9-31125..New Jersey10..Minnesota31..Maryland86.879.07.9..North Carolina11..Maryland74.450.3..Kentucky70..Maryland70346282726842686137741..Maryland38.1841185..Maryland38..Connecticut26
..Massachusetts31.242.947.358.872.881.286.8..Massachusetts17.929.736.946.964.570.076.3..Massachusetts131310128111010..Massachusetts73.081.687.444.552.057.3293030..Iowa10..New York31..Massachusetts87.476.311.1..Minnesota10..Massachusetts72.157.8..Arizona70..Massachusetts7773333018313700358903..Massachusetts9.0090437781..Massachusetts16..Arkansas25
..Michigan25.336.142.454.669.878.685.3..Michigan12.519.525.235.955.264.974.1..Michigan1317171915141111..Michigan69.978.785.649.360.962.3211823..Nebraska10..Rhode Island30..Michigan85.674.111.4..Ohio10..Michigan66.451.1..Oklahoma71..Michigan1358972300414926120110064..Michigan19.220439009..Michigan19..Tennessee24
..Minnesota25.135.544.057.773.282.889.2..Minnesota51.170.676.279.0..Minnesota2536447371010..Minnesota73.382.889.561.171.158.1121231..Georgia9..Massachusetts30..Minnesota89.579.010.5..Nebraska10..Minnesota79.054.9..California71..Minnesota7122232151759433960459..Minnesota6.0922186965..Minnesota8..Michigan19
..Mississippi28.134.442.252.663.971.778.9..Mississippi2.64.27.614.932.747.360.5..Mississippi2630353831241818..Mississippi64.071.779.045.767.759.218420..Rhode Island9..Connecticut29..Mississippi79.060.518.5..Georgia10..Mississippi60.841.7..Arkansas72..Mississippi394042491931968819217..Mississippi49.9644706121..Mississippi46..Rhode Island17
..Missouri23.031.937.750.264.674.982.4..Missouri11.117.224.133.352.765.173.9..Missouri12151417121088..Missouri64.674.982.558.771.065.76417..Missouri8..Delaware28..Missouri82.573.98.6..Iowa10..Missouri74.745.1..Massachusetts72..Missouri7579180410771296360860..Missouri17.1036138856..Missouri16..Oklahoma17
..Montana29.940.648.560.175.281.787.9..Montana61.080.380.991.2..Montana304149-1-51-3-3..Montana75.381.887.958.166.478.0171510..Indiana8..New Jersey27..Montana87.991.2-3.2..Rhode Island10..Montana75.843.2..Rhode Island72..Montana135321112066211758..Montana0.458173219..Montana3..Massachusetts16
..Nebraska29.139.848.159.773.982.488.2..Nebraska15.824.430.942.761.073.278.6..Nebraska131517171391010..Nebraska74.082.688.852.960.046.6212342..Kansas8..Pennsylvania27..Nebraska88.878.610.2..California9..Nebraska77.851.1..Colorado73..Nebraska248613221436178720934..Nebraska7.1879650859..Nebraska12..Pennsylvania16
..Nevada36.948.355.266.976.980.983.9..Nevada36.261.470.878.9..Nevada37485531161055..Nevada77.782.087.656.853.747.3212840..Maryland7..New Mexico26..Nevada87.678.98.7..Kansas9..Nevada55.934.7..West Virginia73..Nevada2461812875302237215214..Nevada9.6352262572..Nevada34..Missouri16
..New Hampshire26.937.242.957.672.282.287.6..New Hampshire65.379.686.184.4..New Hampshire273743-8-7-433..New Hampshire72.282.287.764.878.273.67414..Oregon7..Indiana26..New Hampshire87.784.43.3..Nevada9..New Hampshire77.746.8..Indiana73..New Hampshire17520..New Hampshire0..New Hampshire4..Kansas15
..New Jersey23.735.942.054.169.078.684.7..New Jersey9.216.324.536.256.467.074.5..New Jersey1520181813121010..New Jersey69.979.986.544.553.959.5252627..Utah7..Maryland25..New Jersey86.574.512.0..Missouri9..New Jersey84.557.0..Wyoming74..New Jersey89234..New Jersey0..New Jersey35..Ohio15
..New Mexico25.036.947.357.273.478.683.3..New Mexico41.362.874.779.4..New Mexico2537471611444..New Mexico80.686.290.650.659.664.4302726..Tennessee6..South Carolina25..New Mexico90.679.411.2..Indiana9..New Mexico56.738.9..Maine74..New Mexico293073041438962810361..New Mexico2.1428327703..New Mexico51..Indiana14
..New York23.836.941.854.268.778.584.0..New York14.123.730.039.857.664.770.6..New York1013121411141313..New York69.879.986.042.050.455.0283031..Washington5..Michigan23..New York86.070.615.4..Oregon8..New York62.556.5..Maryland74..New York252864155675018357497128615..New York22.7383099215..New York36..Washington14
..North Carolina23.524.837.142.257.873.181.2..North Carolina5.88.114.722.943.058.170.7..North Carolina1817221915151010..North Carolina57.873.181.750.971.044.57237..Colorado5..Wyoming23..North Carolina81.770.711.0..Maryland8..North Carolina66.245.3..South Dakota74..North Carolina111493199633533571768622..North Carolina32.0351950347..North Carolina33..Oregon13
..North Dakota22.731.139.150.666.776.984.2..North Dakota74.892.995.992.6..North Dakota233139-24-26-19-8-8..North Dakota66.776.984.362.975.273.04211..Nevada5..Florida22..North Dakota84.392.6-8.3..Utah8..North Dakota83.157.7..Missouri75..North Dakota967771126588641..North Dakota0.5993593056..North Dakota2..Hawaii12
..Ohio26.437.643.354.868.276.984.2..Ohio11.519.325.235.654.764.673.9..Ohio1518181914121010..Ohio68.376.984.348.863.367.1201417..Idaho4..Tennessee22..Ohio84.373.910.4..Colorado8..Ohio76.547.6..Virginia75..Ohio1564921656253526620125525..Ohio17.0104542085..Ohio15..Wisconsin12
..Oklahoma25.835.342.053.167.175.782.1..Oklahoma35.257.270.178.5..Oklahoma2635421810644..Oklahoma67.275.882.652.155.950.9152032..New Mexico4..Virginia22..Oklahoma82.678.54.1..Arizona8..Oklahoma71.044.0..Kansas75..Oklahoma502707082503543733778..Oklahoma10.8155957828..Oklahoma17..Nebraska12
..Oregon33.243.248.660.376.182.387.1..Oregon42.868.075.079.8..Oregon334349188777..Oregon76.282.687.857.453.048.8193039..Alaska4..Alabama21..Oregon87.879.88.1..Tennessee6..Oregon69.043.7..Montana76..Oregon4561916183768117838115..Oregon2.5822573928..Oregon13..Kentucky11
..Pennsylvania21.932.939.251.665.875.983.4..Pennsylvania8.816.823.733.252.163.571.8..Pennsylvania1316151814121212..Pennsylvania65.976.083.644.852.256.9212427..Texas4..South Dakota21..Pennsylvania83.671.811.8..Washington6..Pennsylvania79.152.5..Illinois76..Pennsylvania1534643028656023707119999..Pennsylvania15.4479226398..Pennsylvania16..Idaho10
..Rhode Island21.331.835.246.561.373.080.1..Rhode Island10.919.425.737.458.065.971.0..Rhode Island10121093799..Rhode Island61.573.480.839.746.850.4222730..Arizona4..Mississippi20..Rhode Island80.871.09.9..Idaho5..Rhode Island72.357.4..Ohio77..Rhode Island12548409154797312548..Rhode Island7.7542237807..Rhode Island17..Utah10
..South Carolina27.325.938.944.858.973.680.9..South Carolina3.65.29.917.538.953.364.9..South Carolina2421292720201616..South Carolina58.973.681.146.671.856.412225..Oklahoma4..Ohio17..South Carolina81.164.916.2..Oklahoma4..South Carolina52.541.5..Utah77..South Carolina62883..South Carolina0..South Carolina39..Wyoming9
..South Dakota25.635.142.954.268.877.885.7..South Dakota63.185.782.284.1..South Dakota263543-9-17-422..South Dakota68.877.985.768.171.364.91721..New Hampshire3..Missouri17..South Dakota85.784.11.7..Alaska4..South Dakota74.549.8..New Hampshire78..South Dakota112471021141369847..South Dakota1.2092113452..South Dakota3..Alaska8
..Tennessee20.927.533.244.557.968.277.0..Tennessee5.99.614.224.144.759.470.8..Tennessee1518192013966..Tennessee57.968.277.145.271.555.413-322..California3..Kentucky15..Tennessee77.170.86.3..New Hampshire3..Tennessee62.240.0..Nebraska78..Tennessee7469986410171861956305..Tennessee24.9253671401..Tennessee24..Minnesota8
..Texas27.333.342.049.565.776.279.5..Texas8.412.020.830.153.066.175.8..Texas19212119131044..Texas70.185.187.235.544.649.3354138..Vermont2..Alaska14..Texas87.275.811.4..Wyoming3..Texas66.842.1..Idaho78..Texas359368863614208453842153869..Texas14.9824135705..Texas51..Iowa6
..Utah37.350.256.167.680.986.289.9..Utah45.469.777.083.2..Utah3750562211977..Utah81.486.791.052.161.056.5292634..Wyoming2..New Hampshire14..Utah91.083.27.8..Vermont2..Utah76.748.6..Minnesota79..Utah35961936242627231792..Utah0.7563749618..Utah10..West Virginia5
..Vermont27.937.142.957.071.080.886.6..Vermont55.083.785.984.2..Vermont2837432-13-522..Vermont71.080.886.673.284.785.6-2-41..South Dakota2..Hawaii12..Vermont86.684.22.4..South Dakota2..Vermont81.249.9..Pennsylvania79..Vermont87489337638497..Vermont0.7201646091..Vermont3..New Hampshire4
..Virginia26.034.543.052.566.178.384.3..Virginia6.310.016.330.843.060.371.6..Virginia2025272223181313..Virginia66.178.384.668.470.562.9-2822..Kentucky1..North Dakota11..Virginia84.671.613.1..Kentucky1..Virginia74.950.2..Connecticut79..Virginia95017365237212567561782..Virginia27.0214803667..Virginia29..Montana3
..Washington33.845.451.963.978.385.089.3..Washington48.672.681.284.0..Washington344552156455..Washington78.485.390.055.556.753.0232937..Maine1..Louisiana11..Washington90.084.06.0..Maine1..Washington68.244.2..Wisconsin81..Washington8660260997472430766200..Washington4.9733262511..Washington14..Vermont3
..West Virginia18.325.431.042.056.066.075.1..West Virginia10.716.822.330.952.164.776.6..West Virginia8991141-2-2..West Virginia56.165.975.145.970.374.210-41..Hawaii-0..Montana10..West Virginia75.176.6-1.5..Hawaii0..West Virginia72.844.5..Vermont81..West Virginia238761287997422668..West Virginia4.0794102865..West Virginia5..South Dakota3
..Wisconsin22.433.841.855.070.279.686.6..Wisconsin9.917.526.134.054.461.368.5..Wisconsin1316162116181818..Wisconsin70.379.786.945.954.154.6242632..West Virginia-2..Maine6..Wisconsin86.968.518.5..West Virginia-1..Wisconsin80.651.0..Iowa82..Wisconsin7896121713094819964345..Wisconsin10.3836070972..Wisconsin12..North Dakota2
..Wyoming33.244.752.463.278.883.988.8..Wyoming43.575.481.286.7..Wyoming334552203322..Wyoming79.484.489.349.459.366.3302523..Montana-3..Vermont1..Wyoming89.386.72.7..Montana-3..Wyoming74.041.6..North Dakota83..Wyoming805956492687212..Wyoming0.8437771436..Wyoming9..Maine2
United States26.136.443.254.568.877.983.6United States7.713.721.731.451.263.172.3United States1823222318151111United States69.679.185.544.049.852.4262933..North Dakota-8..West Virginia1United States85.572.313.2..North Dakota-8United States69.647.8..New Jersey85United States39348761484725603486498072287117United States16.5140400867United States30..District of Columbia
Sheet1. svy, vce(linearized): ivreg knba8 gr79293 gr89293 gr109293 gr119293 clowoy cfgenoy c11gssf c10gssf c8gss> fm cexdk cexhs cex13v cex14aa cexma cexphd cothrac chisp cwhite cfemale parbefor (xnewgp = ffutc)(running ivreg on estimation sample)Survey: Instrumental variables (2SLS) regressionNumber of strata = 27 Number of obs = 2728Number of PSUs = 66 Population size = 31969.995ub orDesign df = 39ubmsF( 21, 19) = 15.81evidenceProb > F = 0.0000ofR-squared = 0.0656partcipationxb------------------------------------------------------------------------------| Linearized00.146027knba8 | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]10.217278-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------xnewgp | .0702882 .0141546 4.97 0.000 .0416579 .0989185gr79293 | -.0572851 .0595305 -0.96 0.342 -.177697 .0631268gr89293 | -.0612433 .041987 -1.46 0.153 -.1461699 .0236833Linearizedgr109293 | .0284882 .0818302 0.35 0.730 -.137029 .1940054knba8Coef.Std. Err.tP>t[95% Conf.Interval]gr119293 | -.0915214 .1500555 -0.61 0.545 -.3950373 .2119944clowoy | .1098534 .0488211 2.25 0.030 .0111034 .2086034xnewgp0.07028820.01415464.9700.04165790.0989185cfgenoy | .0875282 .0280547 3.12 0.003 .0307822 .1442743gr79293-0.05728510.0595305-0.960.342-0.1776970.0631268c11gssf | -.058408 .0832187 -0.70 0.487 -.2267337 .1099178gr89293-0.06124330.041987-1.460.153-0.14616990.0236833c10gssf | -.0406322 .0350891 -1.16 0.254 -.1116065 .0303421gr1092930.02848820.08183020.350.73-0.1370290.1940054c8gssfm | -.0626093 .058943 -1.06 0.295 -.1818329 .0566142gr119293-0.09152140.1500555-0.610.545-0.39503730.2119944cexdk | -.0665584 .0242336 -2.75 0.009 -.1155756 -.0175412clowoy0.10985340.04882112.250.030.01110340.2086034cexhs | -.1324111 .0195696 -6.77 0.000 -.1719944 -.0928279cfgenoy0.08752820.02805473.120.0030.03078220.1442743cex13v | -.0653185 .0307699 -2.12 0.040 -.1275566 -.0030805c11gssf-0.0584080.0832187-0.70.487-0.22673370.1099178cex14aa | -.1207138 .0200235 -6.03 0.000 -.1612152 -.0802123c10gssf-0.04063220.0350891-1.160.254-0.11160650.0303421cexma | .0568875 .0320095 1.78 0.083 -.0078578 .1216329c8gssfm-0.06260930.058943-1.060.295-0.18183290.0566142cexphd | .0336794 .0254852 1.32 0.194 -.0178693 .0852281cexdk-0.06655840.0242336-2.750.009-0.1155756-0.0175412cothrac | .0417762 .0419472 1.00 0.325 -.0430701 .1266224cexhs-0.13241110.0195696-6.770-0.1719944-0.0928279chisp | -.0139702 .0270719 -0.52 0.609 -.0687283 .0407879cex13v-0.06531850.0307699-2.120.04-0.1275566-0.0030805cwhite | -.0402527 .0185736 -2.17 0.036 -.0778213 -.002684cex14aa-0.12071380.0200235-6.030-0.1612152-0.0802123cfemale | .0848119 .0118107 7.18 0.000 .0609224 .1087014cexma0.05688750.03200951.780.083-0.00785780.1216329parbefor | .0203305 .0139031 1.46 0.152 -.0077911 .0484521cexphd0.03367940.02548521.320.194-0.01786930.0852281_cons | .1414324 .0426102 3.32 0.002 .0552451 .2276196cothrac0.04177620.041947210.325-0.04307010.1266224------------------------------------------------------------------------------chisp-0.01397020.0270719-0.520.609-0.06872830.0407879Instrumented: xnewgpcwhite-0.04025270.0185736-2.170.036-0.0778213-0.002684Instruments: gr79293 gr89293 gr109293 gr119293 clowoy cfgenoy c11gssfcfemale0.08481190.01181077.1800.06092240.1087014c10gssf c8gssfm cexdk cexhs cex13v cex14aa cexma cexphdparbefor0.02033050.01390311.460.152-0.00779110.0484521cothrac chisp cwhite cfemale parbefor ffutc_cons0.14143240.04261023.320.0020.05524510.2276196------------------------------------------------------------------------------. adjust, by(xnewgp) xb----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Dependent variable: knba8 Command: ivregVariables left as is: gr79293, gr89293, gr109293, gr119293, parbefor, cfemale, cwhite, chisp, cothrac,cexphd, cexma, cex14aa, cexhs, cex13v, cexdk, c8gssfm, c10gssf, c11gssf, cfgenoy,clowoy--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ub or |ubms |evidence |of |partcipat |ion | xb----------+-----------0 | .1460271 | .217278----------------------Key: xb = Linear Prediction
Sheet2. svyset wprojid [pweight=v5bwgtp1], strata(v5no69st) vce(linearized)pweight: v5bwgtp1VCE: linearizedStrata 1: v5no69stSU 1: wprojidFPC 1: . svy, vce(linearized): logit knba8 ffutc gr79293 gr89293 gr109293 gr119293 clowoy cfgenoy c11gssf c10gssf> c8gssfm cexdk cexhs cex13v cex14aa cexma cexphd cothrac chisp cwhite cfemale parbefor(running logit on estimation sample)Survey: Logistic regressionNumber of strata = 27 Number of obs = 2728ffutcprNumber of PSUs = 66 Population size = 32196Design df = 3900.137401F( 21, 19) = 5.9010.174706Prob > F = 0.0001Linearizedknba8 Coef. Std. Err. t P>t [95% Conf. Interval]Linearizedknba8Coef.Std. Err.tP>t[95% Conf.Interval]ffutc .3634891 .0884502 4.11 0.000 .1845817 .5423965gr79293 -.3637415 .4132378 -0.88 0.384 -1.199594 .4721109ffutc0.36348910.08845024.1100.18458170.5423965gr89293 -.4672548 .3009191 -1.55 0.129 -1.075921 .1414116gr79293-0.36374150.4132378-0.880.384-1.1995940.4721109gr109293 .0684142 .589618 0.12 0.908 -1.124201 1.261029gr89293-0.46725480.3009191-1.550.129-1.0759210.1414116gr119293 -2.135073 1.730992 -1.23 0.225 -5.636336 1.366189gr1092930.06841420.5896180.120.908-1.1242011.261029clowoy .7055447 .2570919 2.74 0.009 .1855272 1.225562gr119293-2.1350731.730992-1.230.225-5.6363361.366189cfgenoy .6066377 .1670952 3.63 0.001 .2686557 .9446196clowoy0.70554470.25709192.740.0090.18552721.225562c11gssf -.2919325 .6040935 -0.48 0.632 -1.513827 .9299619cfgenoy0.60663770.16709523.630.0010.26865570.9446196c10gssf -.3020628 .2637818 -1.15 0.259 -.8356119 .2314863c11gssf-0.29193250.6040935-0.480.632-1.5138270.9299619c8gssfm -.5566944 .4189629 -1.33 0.192 -1.404127 .2907381c10gssf-0.30206280.2637818-1.150.259-0.83561190.2314863cexdk -.5475846 .2096986 -2.61 0.013 -.97174 -.1234292c8gssfm-0.55669440.4189629-1.330.192-1.4041270.2907381cexhs -2.161215 .8916727 -2.42 0.020 -3.964794 -.3576371cexdk-0.54758460.2096986-2.610.013-0.97174-0.1234292cex13v -.5637131 .2785174 -2.02 0.050 -1.127068 -.0003584cexhs-2.1612150.8916727-2.420.02-3.964794-0.3576371cex14aa -1.266574 .2813294 -4.50 0.000 -1.835616 -.6975312cex13v-0.56371310.2785174-2.020.05-1.127068-0.0003584cexma .3657141 .1902791 1.92 0.062 -.0191616 .7505899cex14aa-1.2665740.2813294-4.50-1.835616-0.6975312cexphd .2163965 .1642632 1.32 0.195 -.1158573 .5486502cexma0.36571410.19027911.920.062-0.01916160.7505899cothrac .3005904 .2568567 1.17 0.249 -.2189513 .8201322cexphd0.21639650.16426321.320.195-0.11585730.5486502chisp -.1082737 .218778 -0.49 0.623 -.550794 .3342465cothrac0.30059040.25685671.170.249-0.21895130.8201322cwhite -.3371152 .1519123 -2.22 0.032 -.6443869 -.0298436chisp-0.10827370.218778-0.490.623-0.5507940.3342465cfemale .6698229 .1304506 5.13 0.000 .4059616 .9336843cwhite-0.33711520.1519123-2.220.032-0.6443869-0.0298436parbefor .1718799 .1009829 1.70 0.097 -.0323773 .3761371cfemale0.66982290.13045065.1300.40596160.9336843_cons -1.81933 .3146117 -5.78 0.000 -2.455692 -1.182967parbefor0.17187990.10098291.70.097-0.03237730.3761371_cons-1.819330.3146117-5.780-2.455692-1.182967. adjust, by(ffutc) prDependent variable: knba8 Command: logitVariables left as is: gr79293, gr89293, gr109293, gr119293, parbefor, cfemale, cwhite, chisp, cothrac,cexphd, cexma, cex14aa, cexhs, cex13v, cexdk, c8gssfm, c10gssf, c11gssf, cfgenoy,clowoyffutc pr0 .1374011 .174706Key: pr = Probability.
Sheet4. svy, vce(linearized): logit knba8 ffutc gr79293 gr89293 gr109293 gr119293 clowoy cfgenoy c11gssf c10gssf> c8gssfm cexdk cexhs cex13v cex14aa cexma cexphd cothrac chisp cwhite cfemale parbefor(running logit on estimation sample)Survey: Logistic regressionNumber of strata = 28 Number of obs = 2813Number of PSUs = 67 Population size = 43732Design df = 39ffutcprF( 21, 19) = 21.55Prob > F = 0.000000.16334410.166209Linearizedknba8 Coef. Std. Err. t P>t [95% Conf. Interval]ffutc .0590399 .2140039 0.28 0.784 -.3738239 .4919036gr79293 -.7889951 .3833183 -2.06 0.046 -1.56433 -.0136606Linearizedgr89293 -1.014662 .326872 -3.10 0.004 -1.675823 -.3535009knba8Coef.Std. Err.tP>t[95% Conf.Interval]gr109293 .2796151 .4283042 0.65 0.518 -.5867119 1.145942gr119293 -1.487255 1.47087 -1.01 0.318 -4.462371 1.487861ffutc0.0
