Upper Valley Housing Coalition Real Estate Market Update September 11, 2015 Presented by: Buff...

Upper Valley Housing CoalitionReal Estate Market Update

September 11, 2015

Presented by: Buff McLaughry & Ned Redpath

1

Agenda

1. Market Trends

2. Pricing

3. Market Outlook

12

Market Trends - Geographic Focus

1

1

Market Trends – Hanover, Lebanon, Hartford

Listing Inventory (347) Closed Sales (182) Pending Sales (142)Down 4.9% Down 2.2% Up 14.5%

*Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNREN)

Days on Market (67)Down 27.9%

June – August 2014vs.

June – August 2015

1

Market Trends -

Listing Inventory (535) Closed Sales (144) Pending Sales (153)Down 4.6% Up 1.4% Up 11.7%



Thetford, Hartland, Norwich, Pomfret, Sharon, Woodstock, Enfield, Lyme, Cornish, Grantham, Plainfield



Market Trends – Counties: Orange, Windsor, Grafton, Sullivan

Listing Inventory (4,165) Closed Sales (981) Pending Sales (1,018)Down 4.3% Up 7.8% Up 13.4%





Agenda

1. Market Trends

2. Pricing

3. Market Outlook

Average Sale Price-

Down 3.4%


Under $300K

June – August 2015June – August 2014

$185,300 $179,000

*14 Upper Valley towns: Fairlee, Thetford, Hartford, Hartland, Norwich, Sharon, Woodstock, Enfield, Hanover, Lebanon, Lyme, Orford, Grantham, Plainfield

Closed Sales (193) Closed Sales (214)

Average Sale Price-

Down 3.7%


Under $300K

June – August 2015June – August 2014

$152,300 $146,700

*Counties – Grafton, Windsor, Orange, Sullivan

Closed Sales (699) Closed Sales (766)

Average Sale Price-

Up 5.5%


$300K - $600K

$410,000 $432,300


Closed Sales (99) Closed Sales (84)June – August 2014 June – August 2015

Average Sale Price-

Down 2.9%


$600K - $1M

$771,600 $749,000



Average Sale Price-

Up 19.8%


Over $1M

$1,452,000 $1,740,000



*Statistically small sample

Average Sale Price-

Up 3.5%


Over $1M

$1,550,000 $1,604,000

*All NH & VT counties


Agenda

1. Market Trends

2. Pricing

3. Market Outlook

Market Outlook – The good….

Area Unemployment Rate July 2015

United States 5.3%

New England 4.7%

Vermont 3.6%

New Hampshire 3.7%

1. Employment is High

2. Interest Rates are Low

BUT…. For every 1% increase in interest rates, buyers lose 10% of mortgage approval value.

*Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Market Outlook – The bad…

1. Inventory: 1. Low - income supported purchases (low-middle market)2. High - discretionary purchases (high end market)

2. Wages: Stagnant wages have not supported significant price increases in the last decade.

Market Outlook – The unknown…

1. Economic conditions in China - uncertain

2. Cheap foreign labor- stagnant wages, slow growth, flat pricing

3. Election year – another year of no accomplishments

4. 500 +/- houses in pipeline for permitting in region – good as long as they are priced for income supported purchases

2007 2020

*2007 Values

*Inflation Adjusted Values

2016

Market Outlook

Questions?

WWW.UVHC.ORG

Presentation posted on theUpper Valley Housing Coalition website:

Buff McLaughryemail: [email protected]

Ned Redpathemail: [email protected]

Upper Valley Housing Coalition Real Estate Market Update September 11, 2015 Presented by: Buff...

Documents

Transcript of Upper Valley Housing Coalition Real Estate Market Update September 11, 2015 Presented by: Buff...