UPlan: How It Works and How to Get Started

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UPlan: How It Works and How to Get Started. A description for the rest of us Nathaniel Roth Information Center for the Environment University of California, Davis CalACT Conference Olympic Valley 4/22/2008. Why do we model?. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • UPlan: How It Works and How to Get StartedA description for the rest of us

    Nathaniel RothInformation Center for the EnvironmentUniversity of California, Davis

    CalACT Conference Olympic Valley 4/22/2008

  • Why do we model?1. They allow us to test a wide variety of policy, planning and investment alternatives

    2. They create a consistent set of rules and criteria to test the alternatives.

    3. They respond to a wide variety of statutes requiring more accurate forecasts than in the past.

  • What do we get from our models?Spatial OutputWhere is the growth?Tabular OutputHow much?AnalysisWhat are the likely impacts?

  • UPlanSimpleRelatively simple dataGenerally accessible demographic inputsSimple algorithm/rulesRule basedThe rules govern the systemUrban GrowthA simple inexpensive model with rapid run times and fast data development

  • HouseholdsPeopleAcresPeople/HHAcreage/HH

  • HouseholdsPeoplePeople/HHEmployees/HHEmployeesAcresSF/EmployeeBuilding SFFAR

  • Combine AttractorsCombined EffectUrban EdgeAmenityMajor ArterialRamp Proximity

  • AllocationGeneral PlanNet AttractionWe need 5 Residential, 3 Commercial, 2 IndustrialRRRCRCRIIC5 Highest Residential Attractions3 Highest Commercial Attractions 2 All Industrial Selected

  • Data TypesLand UsesDemographicsResidentialEmploymentGeneral PlansMasksAttractorsDiscouragers

  • Land UsesCustomizableAs of UPlan 2.6xAggregate3400+ Land uses across 536 city and county general plansDeveloped Land Use TypesNot Agriculture or TimberResidential TypesDensity ClassesEmployment TypesSquare Feet per EmployeeFloor Area Ratio

  • Residential DemographicsPopulation GrowthStarting populationEnding populationAverage Household Size (PPHH)Housing Proportions by Density ClassPercentage of new units entering each residential typeAverage gross footprint per household

  • Employment DemographicsAverage number of employed people per householdPercentage of employees entering each employment typeAverage square footage per employee in buildings for each employment typeFloor Area Ratio for each employment type

  • General PlansAdopted General PlansTest existing general plansSpeculative General PlansWhat if?...Provide the Structure for the Regions DevelopmentGuide development to appropriate general locations

  • MasksPrevent any growth at all.....ExamplesWater BodiesPublic LandExisting Development (no redevelopment)Slopes/Geology

  • AttractorsFeatures that encourage development

    PseudoeconomicHedonic

    The Data RepresentsEffects of PolicyPhysical Features

  • AttractorsRoads and transportation infrastructureUrban services:Water and wastewaterSafety... police, fireTransitAmenities.... parks, entertainment, cultural eventsPast or Planned GrowthRegulatory boundariesCity LimitsSpheres of Influence

  • DiscouragersFeatures that discourage developmentRepresentPolicy effectsPhysical features

  • DiscouragersPhysicalSteep or unstable slopesFloodplainsEnvironmentalNatural resource protections... wetlands, species, agriculture, mineral resourcesHazards... Mining, soilsAdministrativeFees and exactionsInfrastructure LimitsTransportationWater

  • What can be done with UPlanTypes of ScenariosRecent trends (aka Status Quo, Base Case, Business as Usual)General Plan BuildoutChange ScenariosSprawlCompactResource protectionNew CitiesResource limitations

  • AnalysisTransportationExport to Transportation ModelingAir QualityBased on Transportation Modeling outputGreenhouse GassesBuilding type, location, service providerResource ConsumptionDiscouragement impactsOther summarizationPopulation DistributionAccessibility/Economic ActivityUsing accessibility/travel times to core areas

  • ReportsGenerated in MS ExcelMetadataLand ConsumptionDemand: Acres and CellsAllocated: Acres and CellsUnderallocation: Acres and CellsDiscouragement ImpactsAcres of each discouragement consumed by land use type

  • Reports

  • Zonal SummaryHow much development is happening where?New population centersNew Employment centers

  • Zonal SummariesCalculate by Zone:# Acres of each land use# of HH in each residential type# of residents in each residential type# of employees in each employment type# of square feet in building space for each employment type

  • Greenhouse GasClimate ZoneDetermines Demand for EnergyService ProviderDetermines Type of Energy Energy MixCO2E generationNo embodied CO2 calculationsCalculations by land use type, climate zone, service provider, subarea

  • AcknowledgementsCalifornia Department of TransportationUS Department of AgricultureFederal Highway Administration

  • Questions?Nathaniel RothGIS Programmer/AnalystInformation Center for the EnvironmentUniversity of California, [email protected] or (530) 752-1331