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Up on Chinese reassurance & US strength3 Sep 2015 1 Please see disclaimer on last page Up on Chinese...
Transcript of Up on Chinese reassurance & US strength3 Sep 2015 1 Please see disclaimer on last page Up on Chinese...
Daily Market Outlook 3 Sep 2015
1
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Up on Chinese reassurance & US strength
Expect the SET to adjust up today, as local positives receive further support from global factors. The announcement of further government mega-infrastructure spending, here in the form of relocating electrical wires to underground, as well as the expressed determination by the Deputy PM to push exports through new channels, are all likely to boost sentiment regarding the SET. On the global front, strong, but not too strong, US labor data, will reassure investors the world’s largest economy is progressing along nicely, while the pledge by Chinese brokers to support the market would also stem any Chinese-related fears.
Pick of the day: ADVANC (Bt238; BUY; AWS 15TP Bt290, Bloomberg 15TP Bt265.89) Advanced Info Service Pcl is our pick of the day for its market leadership in both fixed-line broadband (FBB) and mobile broadband businesses. Winning the upcoming 4Q auction on 11 Nov would assure this position and ADVANC will fight head on to win the bid. A new broadband trend should support the share price amid volatile stock market conditions. We anticipate ADVANC to win both 900 MHz and 1800 MHz spectrum licenses from the four available licenses. Consequently, ADVANC’s growth potential will be unlocked as early as the beginning of next year. The AIS brand has been so strong that it could monetize the data service trend better than its peers and we believe that it can do so for 4G and FBB services. Chulalongkorn University assessed ADVANC’s brand value at Bt574bn, the country’s highest brand value among all listed companies in 2015. FBB service, such as “AIS Playbox”, offers far better speed packages and more advanced technology with value-added services at the same or lower prices. We expect the company’s net profit to grow 15% this year and 16% next year. Its 2015 dividend yield should be decent at 5.8%, among the highest in the market. A buy signal has occurred in ADVANC daily chart for a while, indicating an upward price adjustment. If it manages to close above Bt248, the share should rally to test an important target at Bt263.00. Note that an upward adjustment should be limited in the medium term as a sell signal still remains in its weekly chart. However,
we expect to see a stronger price pattern soon. (Resistance:
239.00, 241.00, 244.00; Support: 237.00, 235.00, 232.00)
Local issues
Cabinet okays plan to put power lines underground.
The Cabinet on Tuesday approved the project of having
electrical wires and power lines put under the ground along
Bangkok’s 39 routes covering 127.3km. The project will use
a Bt143bn budget from the Metropolitan Electricity Authority
is meant to make the capital a more beautiful tourist
destination. (The Nation)
Major Indices Close Chg %Chg
SET 1,372.45 +10.1 +0.7
SET50 897.69 +8.8 +1.0
SET P/E (x) 18.1
SET P/BV (x) 1.8
SET Div. Yield (%) 3.2
Dow Jones 16,351.38 +293.0 +1.8
S&P 500 1,948.86 +35.0 +1.8
NASDAQ 4,749.98 +113.9 +2.5
UK 6,083.31 +24.8 +0.4
Germany 10,048.05 +32.5 +0.3
France 4,554.92 +13.8 +0.3
Japan 18,095.40 -70.3 -0.4
South Korea 1,915.22 +1.0 +0.1
Hong Kong 20,934.94 -250.5 -1.2
China 3,155.04 -11.6 -0.4
Taiwan 8,035.29 +17.7 +0.2
Singapore 2,878.13 -4.6 -0.2
Malaysia 1,590.19 -19.0 -1.2
Indonesia 4,401.29 -11.2 -0.3
Philippines 7,072.46 -14.4 -0.2
Trading Summary Buy Sell Net
Institution 4,203 5,062 -859
Proprietary 5,153 4,361 792
Foreign 9,405 10,408 -1,002
Individuals 22,397 21,328 1,069
Total Trading Value 41,158 Btmn
Most Active Value Value Close %Chg
JAS 3,182 5.65 -0.9
KTB 2,253 17.70 -
PTT 1,844 266.00 +0.8
AOT 1,503 277.00 +1.1
SCC 1,418 496.00 +3.8
Commodity Futures Close Chg %Chg
US Crude 46.25 +0.8 +1.8
Brent Crude 50.50 +0.9 +1.9
Gold 1,133.60 -6.2 -0.5
FX Rates Close Chg %Chg
USD/THB 35.75 +0.0 +0.0
EUR/USD 1.12 +0.0 +0.0
USD/JPY 120.32 +0.0 +0.0
USD/CNY 6.35 +0.0 +0.0
Source: Bisnews, Bloomberg
Technical picks (support & resistance)
TPIPL (S: 2.16, R: 2.50); CPALL (S: 49.00, R: 53.25); ROBINS (S: 37.75, R: 42.25); SET (S: 1,348, R: 1,400)
Thailand Research Department
Mr. Warut Siwasariyanon (No.17923) Tel: 02 680 5041
Mr. Krit Suwanpibul (No.17968) Tel: 02 680 5090
Mr. Narudon Rusme, CFA (No.29737) Tel: 02 680 5056
Mr. Napat Siworapongpun (No.49234) Tel: 02 680 5094
Daily Market Outlook 3 Sep 2015
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Somkid aims to control food prices, boost exports. Deputy PM Somkid
said authorities should inspect more frequently the market prices for
necessities, particularly food, to prevent excessive profits being made by
traders. He also directed the Commerce Ministry to set up a team to work
closely with the private sector, Foreign Ministry, and Tourism and Sports
Ministry to boost shipments to target countries such as Myanmar and China,
remarking “from now on, the Commerce Ministry will not be the only one
promoting exports”. (Bangkok Post)
TCG scheme expected to help boost SME lending. The higher cap
guarantee coverage for bad loans under the state-owned Thai Credit
Guarantee Corporation (TCG)’s new portfolio guarantee scheme (PGS)
would help restore banks’ confidence in lending to small business operators,
said the Thai Bankers’ Association. The scheme, running from 1 Sep to the
end of 2016, provides credit guarantee coverage of 70% of NPL. (Bangkok
Post)
More progress on bombing case. Theories behind the Turkish connection
to the Erawan shrine bombing were strengthened yesterday as authorities
issued a warrant for the arrest of a Turkish national for illegal possession of
war materials. (Bangkok Post)
Global issues Fed’s challenge: Federal Reserve Beige Book report said US labor markets
were tight enough to fuel small wage gains in some professions in recent
weeks, though some companies already felt a chill from an economic
slowdown in China, the Fed said. The combination of more demand for
workers and worries about Chinese economic growth underscores the
challenge faced by the Fed at a 16-17 Sep meeting where it may decide to
raise interest rates for the first time since 2006. (Reuters)
USA
Wall Street shares were up more than 1.8% on Wednesday supported by
US data and Chinese brokers’ measures to invigorate battered Chinese stock
markets. Technology stocks led a rebound from Tuesday's steep losses. The
market briefly hit a session high after the Federal Reserve Beige Book report
was released with upbeat tone on the US labor markets. (Reuters)
US private payrolls increased 190,000 last month, the ADP National
Employment Report on Wednesday showed. Although the figure was below
economists' expectations for a gain of 201,000 jobs, it was a step-up from the
177,000 positions created in July and in line with the trend for the first seven
months of this year. The ADP figures come ahead of the more comprehensive
non-farm payrolls report on Friday, which includes both public and private-
sector employment. (Reuters)
US nonfarm productivity increased at its strongest pace in 1-1/2 years
in 2Q15, keeping wage inflation subdued for now. The figure rose 3.3% YoY,
the quickest since 4Q13. But the trend in overall productivity remains weak.
Productivity rose 0.7% YoY instead of the 0.3% increase reported last month.
(Reuters)
Europe
European equities gained on Wednesday after a volatile start to the week,
drawing support from brokerage measures in China to invigorate the country's
battered markets and from hopes for policy easing by major central banks.
(Reuters)
Daily Market Outlook 3 Sep 2015
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ECB to cut inflation forecast, but wait on further easing. According to
Reuters the ECB is set to cut its inflation forecast today, due to falling oil
prices and China’s economic slowdown, but is also expected to leave interest
rates unchanged and argue the chance of missing its medium-term inflation
target has increased but the timing is not yet right to take further policy action.
Three-quarters of analysts polled by Reuters expect the ECB to eventually
extend or increase its quantitative easing program. (Reuters)
Asia China's stock, bond, foreign exchange and commodity futures markets
will be closed on 3 Sep and 4 Sep for a national holiday to commemorate
the 70th Anniversary of its WWII Victory. Markets will resume trade on 7 Sep.
(Reuters)
Chinese brokers pledge to support markets: Nine Chinese brokers
pledged to buy more than Rmb30bn of shares, according to the China
Securities Journal. That eased investor fears that Beijing may be intensifying
a trading crackdown. (Reuters)
The value of share repurchases by cash-rich Japanese firms leaped
more than fivefold in August from a year earlier in their drive to reward
shareholders. More buybacks are in the pipeline as companies take
advantage of a pullback in the market. According to data compiled by
JPMorgan, 75 companies in August announced share buybacks worth
¥338bn (US$2.82bn), compared with ¥53bn a year earlier. (Reuters)
Commodities
Gold dips as investors consolidate. Gold spot in the US fell US$6.05 to
US$1,133.65/ounce, after four consecutive days of upwards adjustment, due
to pressure from equities and greenback both strengthening. Nonetheless,
the overall movement was limited as investors wait on Friday’s nonfarm
payroll data for the US. (Reuters)
Oil gets bump from equities. NYMEX adjusted up 84 cents (+1.85%) to
close at US$46.25/barrel, while Brent shot up 94 cents (+1.9%) to
US$50.50/barrel, as sentiments recovered slightly due to recovering equities,
though fears of excess global supply kept a lid on gains. (Reuters)
Daily Market Outlook 3 Sep 2015
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Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
1 2 3 4
XD
EGCO
TAE
XD
EASTW
QHOP
THREL
URBNPF
WORK
XD
CTARAF
GOLDPF
KPNPF
MJLF
PTTGC
SCB
SCB-P
7 8 9 10 11
XD
CK
HMPRO
QH
XD
BANPU
BAY
BBL
KBANK
KKP
MBAX
XD
SUSCO
ZMICO
14 15 16 17 18
21 22 23 24 25
28 29 30
Sep-15
Date Regions
31-Aug-15 EU
1-Sep-15 CNY
2-Sep-15 EU
3-Sep-15 EU
4-Sep-15 EU
4-Sep-15 US
4-Sep-15 US
Economic Indicators
Consumer Price Index (Aug)
ECB Interest Rate Decision
Gross Domestic Product (Q2)
Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug)
Unemployment Rate (Aug)
Caixin Manufacturing PMI
Producer Price Index (Aug)
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CG Rating
Corporate Governance Report disclaimer
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors
Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant
to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed
on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative
Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a
general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of
a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on
inside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate
Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey
result may be changed after that date, Asia wealth Securities Company
Limited does not conform nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2014.
Score Range Number of Logo Description
90 – 100
80 – 89
70 – 79
60 – 69
50 – 59
Below 50
No logo given
Excellent
Very Good
Good
Satisfactory
Pass
N/A
BAFS EGCO IRPC KTB PTTEP SAT SIM TOPBCP GRAMMY IVL MINT PTTGC SC SPALIBTS HANA KBANK PSL SAMART SCB TISCOCPN INTUCH KKP PTT SAMTEL SE-ED TMB
AAV BIGC DELTA HMPRO NBC PJW SAMCO SVI TOGACAP BKI DRT ICC NCH PM SCC TCAP TRCADVANC BLA DTAC KCE NINE PPS SINGER TF TRUEANAN BMCL DTC KSL NKI PR SIS THAI TSTEAOT BROOK EASTW LANNA NMG PRANDA SITHAI THANI TSTHASIMAR CENTEL EE LH NSI PS SNC THCOM TTAASK CFRESH ERW LHBANK OCC PT SNP TIP TTWASP CIMBT GBX LOXLEY OFM QH SPI TIPCO TVOBANPU CK GC LPN PAP RATCH SSF TK UACBAY CNT GFPT MACO PE ROBINS SSI TKT VGIBBL CPF GUNKUL MC PG RS SSSC TNITY VNTBECL CSL HEMRAJ MCOT PHOL S&J STA TNL WACOAL
2S BEAUTY CSS IHL MFEC PPM SKR TBSP TSC ZMICOAF BEC DCC INET MJD PPP SMG TEAM TSCAH BFIT DEMCO IRC MODERN PREB SMK TFD TTCLAHC BH DNA IRCP MONO PRG SMPC TFI TUFAIT BJC EA ITD MOONG PRIN SMT THANA TVDAJ BJCHI ESSO KBS MPG PTG SOLAR THIP TWFPAKP BOL FE KGI MTI QLT SPC THREL UMIAKR BTNC FORTH KKC NC QTC SPCG TIC UPAMANAH BWG FPI KTC NTV RCL SPPT TICON UPFAMARIN CCET GENCO L&E NUSA SABINA SST TIW UPOICAMATA CGD GL LRH NWR SALEE STANLY TKS UTAP CGS GLOBAL LST NYT SCBLIF STEC TLUXE UVAPCO CHOW GLOW MAJOR OGC SCCC STPI TMI UWCAPCS CI GOLD MAKRO OISHI SCG SUC TMT VIHAQUA CKP HOTPOT MATCH PACE SEAFCO SWC TNDT WAVEARIP CM HTC MBK PATO SEAOIL SYMC TPC WHAAS CMR HTECH MBKET PB SFP SYNEX TPCORP WINASIA CSC HYDRO MEGA PDI SIAM SYNTEC TRT WINNERAYUD CSP IFS MFC PICO SIRI TASCO TRU YUASA
Source: Thai Institute of Directors (IOD)
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Contact
Branch Address Phone Fax
Head Office 540 Floor 7,14,17 , Mercury Tower, Ploenchit Road, Lumphini,
Pathumwan Bangkok 10330
02-680-5000 02-680-5111
Silom 191 Silom Complex Building,21st Floor Room 2,3-1 Silom Rd.,
Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok, 10500 Thailand
02-630-3500 02-630-3530-1
Asok 159 Sermmitr Tower, 17th FL. Room No.1703, Sukhumvit 21
Road, Klong Toey Nua, Wattana, Bangkok 10110
02-261-1314-21 02-261-1328
Pinklao
7/3 Central Plaza Pinklao Office Building Tower B, 16th Flr.,
Room No.1605-1606 Baromrajachonnanee Road, Arunamarin,
Bangkoknoi, Bangkok 10700
02-884-7333 02-884-7357,
02-884-7367
Chaengwattana
99/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office Tower, 22nd
Flr., Room 2204 Chaengwattana Road, Bang Talad, Pakkred,
Nonthaburi 11120
02-119-2300 02-8353006
Chaengwattana 2
9/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office Tower, 22nd Flr.,
Room 2203 Chaengwattana Road, Bang Talad, Pakkred,
Nonthaburi 11120
02-119-2388 02-119-2399
Mega Bangna 39 Moo6 Megabangna, 1st Flr., Room 1632/7 Bangna-Trad
Road, Bangkaew Bangplee, Samutprakarn 10540
02-106-7345 02-105-2070
Rayong 356/18 Sukhumvit Road, Nuen-Phra Sub District, Muang
District, Rayong Province 21000
038-808200 038-807200
Khonkaen 26/9 Srijanmai Road, Tamboonnaimuang, Khon Khaen
40000
043-334-700 043-334-799
Chonburi 55/22 Moo 1, Samed Sub District, Muang District, Chonburi
20000
038-053-858 038-784-090
Chaseongsao 233-233/2 Moo2 1st Flr., Sukprayoon Road, Na Meung Sub-
District, Meung District, Chachoengsao 24000
038-981-587 038-981-591