UNWTO World Tourism Barometer May 2020Special focus on the Impact of COVID-19

EVOLUTIONOFTRAVEL

RESTRICTIONS

The impact of COVID-19 on international tourism

January-March 2020

+2 +6

-2

+0 +4 +6

-9

+6

-37

+3 +4 +5

-57 -60 -64

-46 -44 -41

-80

-60

-40

-20

+0

+20World Europe

Asia and thePacific Americas Africa Middle East

Jan. Feb. Mar.

World

Data is provisional

International tourist arrivals fell sharply in March 2020International tourist arrivals, Jan, Feb, March 2020 (% change)

Source:WorldTourismOrganization(UNWTO)

International tourist arrivals by region in Q1 2020

Source:WorldTourismOrganization(UNWTO)

The impact of COVID-19 on Tourism in Q1

67 million fewer international tourist arrivals

80 US$ billion lost in exports

100% destinations with travel restrictions

Looking Ahead

+2

-9

-57

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

(mon

thly

cha

nge,

%)

Actual data*Scenario 1:Scenario 2:Scenario 3: -78%

-70%-58%

Gradual opening of bordersand lifting of travel restrictions

in July in September

in December

Forward-looking scenarios depend on re-opening of bordersInternational tourist arrivals in 2020: three scenarios (YoY monthly change, %)

*ActualdatathroughMarchincludesestimatesforcountrieswhichhavenotyetreporteddata. Source:UNWTO

Note:thescenariospresentedinthisgrapharenotforecasts.Theyrepresentalternativemonthlychangeinarrivalsbasedonthegradualopeningofnationalbordersandliftingoftravelrestrictionsondifferentdates,stillsubjecttohighuncertainty.

Summary of Potential Impacts in 2020

850 million to 1.1 billion fewer international tourist arrivals

US$ 910 billion to US$ 1.2 trillion loss in export revenues from tourism

100 to 120 milliondirecttourismjobs at risk

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Cum

ulat

ive c

hang

e (m

illio

ns)

SARS

Sept. 11th attacks

Global econ. crisis

SARS11 months for recovery

Sept 11th attacks14 months for recovery

Global econ. crisis19 months for recovery

(Months after start of crisis)

The recovery of lost arrivals was the fastest after SARS (11 months)

ImpactofthreepreviouscrisesonworldarrivalsWorld - Cumulative change in international arrivals (million), by months

Month0forSept11thcrisis=Sept.2001;forSARS=March2003;forGlobaleconomiccrisis=Jan2009.

Source:UNWTO

144 mn 157 mn

463 mn 482

4% 5%

14%

54%

38% 39%

44%

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Accommodation and foodservices

Real estate; business andadministrative activities

Manufacturing Wholesale and retail trade;repair of motor vehicles and

motorcycles

Levels of employment (mn) Share in global employment (%) Share of women (%)

Employment in accommodation and food services is at high risk, more than half workers are women

Workersinsectormostatrisk

Source:InternationalLabourOrganization

15%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Hong Kong (China)

Costa Rica

Estonia

New Zealand

Côte d'Ivoire

Malaysia

Greece

Sweden

France

Uruguay

Philippines

Jamaica

Croatia

Jordan

Tourism is a key sector in many advanced and emerging economies Share of Tourism GDP in total GDP (%)

Note:WhenTourismGDPisnotavailable,TourismGrossValueAdded(TGVA)orTourisminternalconsumptionisusedNote:CountrieswithavailableTourismGrossDomesticProductdatafor2015-2018(TourismGDPequalorabove5%oftotalGDP).WhenTourismGDPisnotavailable,TourismGrossValueAdded(TGVA)orTourisminternalconsumptionisused.

Source:CompiledbyUNWTO

Macao (China)JordanSpain

CroatiaMauritius

JamaicaMexico

PhilippinesIceland

UruguayPortugal

FranceThailandSweden

MoroccoGreece

HungaryMalaysia

AustriaCôte d’Ivoire

HondurasNew Zealand

BermudaEstonia

SloveniaCosta Rica

MozambiqueHong Kong (China)

Small Island Developing States are highly vulnerable Share of international tourism revenues as of total exports (%)

Source:UNWTO

Destinations with high share of domestic tourism are less exposed Guestsinhotelsandsimilarestablishments(THS),Domesticandinboundtourism(%oftotalguests)

Source:CompiledbyUNWTONote:Includesonlycountrieswithavailabledatafor2018orearlierandwithshareofdomesticguestsintotalhigherthan50%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Australia

Peru

Ukraine

Argentina

Sweden

Poland

Mexico

Norway

Saudi Arabia

United Kingdom

Mali

Zimbabwe

Denmark

Slovakia

Hungary

Netherlands

Domestic tourism - Guests in hotels and similar establishments Inbound tourism - Guests in hotels and similar establishments

Centr. African Rep.Netherlands

EcuadorHungary

ItalySlovakia

Korea (ROK)Denmark

IsraelZimbabwe

MalaysiaMali

ThailandUnited Kingdom

FranceSaudi Arabia

BoliviaNorway

Burkina FasoMexico

CameroonPoland

GermanySweden

RomaniaArgentina

Russian FederationUkraine

JapanPeru

IndonesiaAustralia

Key Considerations

• Pandemic

Howlongwillthepandemiclastandwhenwillatreatmentorvaccinebecomeavailable?

• Lifting of travel restrictions and lockdown measures

Whenwillcountriesstarteasingrestrictionsandhow?

Howwillsocialdistancingrulesimpactsupply?

• Consumer & Business confidence

Howlongitwilltakeconsumerstoreassumetravel?

How will travel behavior change?

• Economic impact

Howdeepandhowlongwilltheglobalrecessionbe?

Whatwillbeconsumers’discretionaryspendingdecisions?

• Governments Measures

Howdogovernmentmeasuressupporttourism?

Challenges & Opportunities

STRENGHTS

• Proven resilience of tourism in past crises• Domestictourismcanbeabuffer• Adaptationcapacity:safetyandhygieneprotocols,tripsclosertohome,

valueformoney,responsibleconsumerbehavior • Government support to the sector

OPPORTUNITIES

• Re-thinkbusinessmodel• Innovationanddigitalization• Sustainabilityandsustainable-orientedsegments(rural,nature,health)• De-escalationphasesinitiatedbyseveralcountriestowardthe‘new

normal‘• Progressinadaptationplansindestinations&companies

WEAKNESSES

• Segmentspotentiallyaffectedarealsohighspenders:international,longhaul,businesstravelandevents

• Majordisruptioninairlineindustrywithairlinefailuresandconcentration  • Lackofreferencesinpreviousdownturns• Perceptionoftravelasarisk • Lowlevelsofdemandwhenrestartingtourismduetosocialdistancing

THREATS

• Economicenvironment:worldrecession,risingunemploymentandjobsatrisk,closureofbusinessmainlySMEs,disposableincome,uncertaintyweighingonconsumerandbusinessconfidence

• Uncertainlengthofpandemic(includingresurgence)andvaccineunavailability

• Extentoflockdownsandtravelrestrictions • Unknownformofthe‘newnormal

INTERNALFACTORS

EXTERNALFACTORS

POSITIVE NEGATIVE

UNWTO Tourism Dashboard