UNU-WIDER

Southern Engines of Growth

A UNU-WIDER Project

Guanghua Wan and Amelia Santos

Why This Project?

• Rapid growth of CIBS will alter the global balance of power => possible conflicts, international governance and political economy issues

• CIBS have had different political and economic settings as well as different reform/growth strategies => case for comparative studies drawing lessons/experience for each other

• Globalization of CIBS has implications (positive and negative) for developed and LDCs – what at stakes for individual countries (gains and losses, SR and LR, direct and indirect)

• What happens if CIBS particularly China suffer setback?

• Tremendous publicity on CIBS, but with insufficient analytical evidences

• Lack of systematic studies? (IDS, OECD, IADB, ADB...)

WIDER will utilize its extensive research network to conduct a Systematic and Analytical Project

UNU-WIDER

Southern Engines of Growth

Research themes

General studies

– Historical (socioeconomic and political) background and development prospects of CIBS, including potential setbacks in China and/or policy reversals in CIBS;

– Unhappy stories and happy stories

– Business cycles and cross-boarder risk transmission

Commodity and Services Trade –competitive and complementary relationships

– New export and import opportunities

– Competition and complemetarity of trade growth

– Volatility in commodity prices: short and long run perspectives

Financial Resource Flows and Capital Markets

– CIBS as sources and recipients of foreign investments

– Volatility of financial flows: FDI, Portfolios, etc.

– Savings rate differences and implications for growth

– Exchange rate regimes and adjustments

– Balance of payments and capital account liberalization

Political Economy and International Governance

– Opportunities, challenges and threats of CIBS growth

– Institutions and growth

– Energy and geopolitics

UNU-WIDER

Southern Engines of Growth

Project activities

UNU-WIDER

Southern Engines of Growth

March 2, 2006 Brainstorming session UNU-New York

UNA-USASeptember 2006 Management meeting To be determined.

January 2007 Project conference / Plenary

GDN Annual Conference, Beijing, China

June /September 2007 Project meetings/Conferences

Helsinki /Latin America/Africa?

Contributions to the Project Welcome

• Coming to project meetings with full funding by WIDER

• Write papers for the project with a fee paid by WIDER

• Inputs into our project management

• Recommendations and suggestions