“Unknown Known”…. - Home: OIE · “Unknown Known”…. ... the sciences of viral diseases...
Transcript of “Unknown Known”…. - Home: OIE · “Unknown Known”…. ... the sciences of viral diseases...
Mapping the Global Virome
Making the
“Unknown Known”….
And the World Safe From a Future of Viral Threats
If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles; …..if you do not know your enemies nor yourself, you will be imperiled in every single battle. Sun Tzu
Each year, approx. 3 new Viral Diseases emerge
Driven by • Population expansion (1.6 billion
in 1900 to 11.5 billion people in 2100)
• Increased encroachment into wildlife habitat accelerates the spillover of “unknown” viruses from wildlife to humans
Increasing risk from accidental and/or intentional release of “laboratory enhanced” viruses
Source: Jones et al. (2008) Nature
The threat from “novel” viruses is increasing
0
50
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65
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Actual
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Decades
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f EV
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HIV
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SAR
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H1
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Eb
ola
MER
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We are not prepared!
We need to reimagine HOW we
understand and prepare for future
threats
To Move From “Reactive to Proactive”
To regard old problems from a new angle requires creative
imagination. Albert Einstein
• There are approximately 1.5 million viruses circulating in wildlife that are “unknown” – a finite universe
• We can capture and characterize the vast majority of these viruses - turning the “unknown” into the “known”
• We have the ability to use this “knowledge” convert the sciences of viral diseases into a big data science – being transformative and disruptive
• We can use this “information” to convert our response to viral threats from reactive to proactive – protecting the world from future viral diseases
We Know
The Global Virome Project
The Global Virome Project (GVP) is a global partnership to transform the sciences of emerging viral diseases by:
• Developing a global database of virtually all of the planet’s naturally- occurring viral threats
• Making the world of emerging diseases a data-rich field – driving the advanced development of countermeasures, against all future threats
GVP Builds a Comprehensive Viral Database
GVP viral surveillance and collection
Genomic sequence generation
Sequence database
Metadata on “viral ecology” – host
range, geographic distribution,
epidemiology
Enabling A “Transformative and Disruptive” Public Health Tool Box
Viral Atlas Database A comprehensive ecologic and
genetic database on all naturally- occurring viruses
Turning the Sciences of Emerging Viral Disease into “Big Data” sciences
Being Transformative and Disruptive
GVP: Getting to the Source
Mammals and water fowl are viral reservoirs
Mammalian Habitat ranges Waterfowl breeding hotspots
GVP: Mammalian Virome
Phase 1: 10 countries, 1,562 mammals, $366.4 M
Phase 2: 16 countries, 970 mammals, $258 M
Phase 3 23 countries, 447 mammals, $132.9 M
Over 10 years, will target: 68.5% of global mammalian viruses, by sampling 63.5% of global mammalian diversity, to find 71% of mammalian virome
108 Global Sampling Sites
GVP: Making the Unknown KnownGVP
Phase 2: 21%
Phase 1: 41%
Phase 3: 9%
85% of Global Virome
Water fowl: 14%
Impact 1: Development of Broad Countermeasures
GVP will enable the comparative
analysis of thousands of members of each viral family
and the advanced development of next
generation countermeasures that are broadly effective –
rather than against individual viruses (e.g. MERS, SARS)
MERS SARS
Converting Virology into a data-rich field
Thousands of other Corona Viruses
Universal Corona Virus Vaccine
Impact 2: Pandemic/Epidemic Prevention
GVP will enable through detailed
characterization of every virus's ecologic profile –
spanning host range, geographic distribution, and
epidemiology – the identification of viruses that pose the greatest potential threat and the targeting of
measures to prevent spillover
Minimizing the Risk of Spillover
Drive Targeted, High-Impact Risk Mitigation
• An audacious but doable visionary project
• Clear metrics and goals
• Disruptive and transformative
• Can be done in phases where each phase itself generates useful information
• The potential to change the way we do science and engage global health
Parallels to the Human Genome Project