Validating Assumptions: From Unknown to Known
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Transcript of Validating Assumptions: From Unknown to Known
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BW2 Concurrent�Session�11/13/2013�10:15�AM�
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"Validating Assumptions: From Unknown to Known"
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Presented by:
Ade Shokoya AgileTV
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Brought�to�you�by:��
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340�Corporate�Way,�Suite�300,�Orange�Park,�FL�32073�888Ͳ268Ͳ8770�ͼ�904Ͳ278Ͳ0524�ͼ�[email protected]�ͼ�www.sqe.com
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Ade Shokoya AgileTV
Ade Shokoya is a Certified ScrumMaster and Scrum Professional, business analyst, and agile consultant who specializes in multi-million dollar agile transition projects. With more than eleven years of experience and a client list that includes internationally recognized companies including News Corps, Tesco, Metro, LexisNexis, and Capita, Ade Shokoya adopts a K.I.S.S (Keep It Simple & Straightforward) approach to agile transition. Ade is the author of Waterfall to Agile: A Practical Guide to Agile Transition and the founder of AgileTV.com where he regularly interviews world-leading agile experts and thought leaders.
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A Presentation by Ade Shokoya
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• A father and his two sons, a mother and her two daughters, a thief and a policeman are on one side of a river.
• There’s a boat by the river bank, but it can only take two people at a time.
• Only the father, the mother and the policeman know how to operate the boat.
• The father can not be with any of the daughters without their mother around.
• The mother can not be with any of the sons without their father around.
• The thief can not be with anyone else without the policeman around.
How can you get everyone across to the other side of the river?
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"There are known knowns; there are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns; that is to say, there are things that we now know
we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns - there are things we do not know we
don’t know.“ ~ United States Secretary of Defense, Donald
Rumsfeld
"We do know of certain knowledge that he [Osama Bin Laden] is either in Afghanistan, or in some
other country, or dead."
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“Unknowns lead to uncertainty... Uncertainty leads to anxiety... Anxiety leads to cognitive biases!”
(Scrum) Master Yoda
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…a deviation of judgment from accuracy or logic - can lead to perceptual distortion, inaccurate judgment, or illogical interpretation
Copyright Ade Shokoya 2012-20113
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Original Plan
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The more precise you are, the less accurate you’ll be
Estimates made during product definition stage typically out by
a factor of x16
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Gorilla basketball video here…
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Cost: $125,000,000
tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions.
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Sequence: 2,4,6 3 attempts to discover the underlying rule of this 3 number sequence
Sequence Fits Rule? 2,4,6
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Inspect & Adapt – because things rarely go as planned!
Best Plan
…knowledge comes from experience and making decisions based on what is known
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Waterfall • Define: Up front • Deliver: In single batch
Incremental • Build a bit at a time. • Calls for fully formed idea upfront
Iterative Build a rough version, validate it, then slowly build up quality
Source: Jeff Patton - http://www.agileproductdesign.com/blog/dont_know_what_i_want.html
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Deliver a product inline with the following requirements: 1. A gasoline-powered engine 2. Top speed of 130mph 3. Go from 0-60mph in four seconds 4. A steering wheel 5. CD Player/Digital Radio 6. Drop Top Roof 7. Heated Seats 8. Four wheels 9. Rubber tires mounted to each wheel 10. A steel body in racing red colour Build Cost = $40,000
Purchase Price: Cost $1,000 each
First team to deliver what I want wins!
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"The wisest man [person] is [the one] who knows that [they] know nothing“ ~ Socrates
Validated Learning
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The minimum viable product is that product which has just those features (and no more) that allows you to ship a product that resonates with early adopters; some of whom will pay you money or give you feedback.”
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! Spotify ! Zappos ! Facebook ! Dropbox
Copyright Ade Shokoya 2012-20113