Uma Lele Considerations for Way Forward in A Dramatically ...
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Uma LeleConsiderations for Way Forward in A Dramatically Changed
WorldNovember 6, 2014
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Tectonic Power Shifts ? OR Small Eruptions in the World Economic Order?
From Aid to Capital Flows and Remittances
Economic Dynamism and Growth of Emissions will likely come mostly from Developing Countries
Incremental Changes are out.
Do not be a “Boring Evaluator!” Be Relevant Communicate Effectively
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Bretton Woods
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136 presentations 6 plenaries Participants with Diverse Backgrounds Developed and developing countries International organizations Bilateral donors, Academics Private Sector Consultants NGOs Many Sectors Represented
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But it has a Long Way to Go to Address Big Challenges
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Evaluations are still largely about projects
Projects are not realizing their potential
“Big Challenges Call for New Approaches to M and E” Andrew Steer
So how did the Conference Contribute to Andrew Steer’s Call?
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GEF’s OPS 4 and 5 provided evidence of moving from
◦ Projects to programs◦ Replication◦ Mainstreaming◦ Scaling Up◦ Market Change and Transformation ◦ Creating an Enabling Environment in the Countries◦ Is this working beyond GEF in other International
Organizations?---e.g. a goal of LED light bulbs to cover the world by 2030?
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Mitigation
AdaptationPolicy
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Conceptual Advances Complexity Theory Other Array of Conceptual Frameworks Theory of Change and Theory of No-Change
Methodological Advances
Experimental and quasi experimental methods Propensity scoring Institutional Capacity- Measurement Tools and frameworks – Network analysis Stakeholder Mapping Methods of Evaluating Mainstreaming of Climate Change in international
institutions—WB, IDB, UNEP, FAO, GEF, CIF Evaluation of Carbon Funds Some Treatment of collective action challenges
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GIS—widespread availability through Open Data, reduced costs
IT Revolution Telephony Crowd sourcing
Need Complimentary ground level data
Country Capacity and resources to undertake data collection and analysis highlighted repeatedly
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Advantages of Theory of change◦ A Useful tool, clarity of causal chain, ◦ Beneficial for Design of Interventions as well for
monitoring and evaluations◦ Helps identify assumptions, increases transparency
and efficiency of analysis
Increasing focus on design and learning rather than just ex post impact
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Risks in Rigid Application of TOC Approach Linear thinking Tunnel Vision Looking for the key where the light is Insufficient Use of Science
Therefore Theory of No Change is Also Important: ◦ Helps identify System level constraints which come in the
way of change Systematic Search for Obstacles to Change Examples ◦ OPS 5, South China Sea◦ World Bank on energy investments◦ IDB’s mainstreaming of Climate Change
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If Billions and Trillions of $s are being spent on subsidies We Need More Evaluations on policies and Reforms◦ Some Examples In Plenary (Chomitz and Mark-Wagner) Mentioned the
critical role of subsidies. IDB Evaluation—why policy loans are a weak
instrument to mainstream Climate Change An evaluation in Ecuador—improved tenure security
did not seem to matter on land use outcomes as expected
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◦ Mitigation Has Been around longer◦ Is more hard science driven?◦ Technological solutions dominate◦ Easier conceptually to measure?◦ Clearer methods of measurement. Implications◦ Increase coherence in the way different International Organizations approach Mitigation norms, standards, guidance to investors?◦Organize a consortium!
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MDBs and Regional Banks Are Evaluating Mainstreaming of mitigation in Development Lending. Evidence of Huge Unexploited Scope for ◦ improving efficiency using conventional technologies,
e.g. in power sector to reduce emissions◦ Creating Enabling Environment◦ Reducing SubsidiesBut No Guarantee the above three bullets will result in increased investments.
Analysis of Markets and Market Development for Mitigation Related technologies seems to be weak in projects.
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“Adaptation is a process of continual adjustment which, if successful, will enable socio-economic or environmental goals to be achieved despite a changing climate context”.
Long Time Frame, Inherent Uncertainties Need for flexibility
Diversity of key concepts and definitions. Little Progress since the 1st Evaluation
Conference?
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Clarify Adaptation, Resilience, Vulnerability and development challenges and interventions
At the National Level Well Articulated Mitigation Strategies But Absent Overarching National Adaptation Strategies? Piecemeal Approaches to Adaptation mostly local and sectorial— Disconnect between National and Local Disconnect among Sectors
Enhance Domestic Capacities
A Shining Example of Disaster Management Orissa State in India–Coping with Hurricane in 2013 moved a million
people to safety
Need for investments in developing countries to achieve adaptive capacity and transformational change
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CLIMATE SMART VILLAGE
Knowledge smart
•Farmer-farmer learning
•Community seed and fodder banks
•Market info•Off-farm risk management
Nitrogen smart
•Site specific nutrient management
•Precision fertilizers
•Catch cropping / legumes
Carbon smart
•Agroforestry•Conservation tillage
•Land use systems
•Livestock management
Water smart
•Aquifer recharge
•Rainwater harvesting
•Community management of water
•Laser leveling•On-farm water management
Weather smart
•Weather forecasts
•ICT based agro-advisories
•Index based insurance
•Climate analogues
Energy smart
•Biofuels•Fuel efficient engines
•Residue management
•Minimum tillage
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(Source: Erickson et al., 2011)
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Climatic variability is Not the Same as Climate Change But they are relatedHigh CV of rainfall in Pakistan; northwest and south India
Drought: >26 droughts in last 130 years
70% land drought prone; 12% flood prone and 8% to cyclones
Frost: common in northern regions
Heat: frequent episodes at many places
Frequent floods and cyclones in several regions
(Source: Erickson et al., 2011)
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Can this Buy Us Time? Increasing Energy Efficiency Information and labelling Certification—e.g. Palm oil Solar Technologies
Need to Search for Long Term Solutions: Renewables????
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Messy Global Environmental Architecture: Global Agreements, Rule Setting, and Financial Flows to Developing Countries
Source: Authors
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Fragmented Global Climate Financing Architecture in need of Evaluation to achieve coherence
How are emission reduction measured? How Is Adaptation considered?
“Traditional Vs. New Organizations”
Pros and Cons of Convention Based Financing Vs. The Ad Hoc Emergence of Climate Funds—e.g. van den Berg
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On the Evaluation of the Messy Environmental Architecture, Some questions: Do we need many funds with expectation of
coordination BY DEVELOPING Countries at the national level?
Costs and benefits to developing countries of lack of harmonization at the global level◦ REDD Readiness, Banks and IOs have had their own rules
Evaluation of Mainstreaming of Climate Change in Governments of developing countries
Scope for Win Wins Trade Offs?
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Capacity in Developing Countries Combining Big Data and little data? Frequent lack of ground level data Technologies related to Data—GIS,
telephones, ICTs Treatment of social issues—indigenous
people, livelihoods Trade offs between environment and
development?
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Impacts of Policy Changes Measurement of Institutional capacity ◦ Intra-household and household decision making◦ Community and Local and National Government
level Analysis of ◦ Power Relationships◦ Elite Capture◦ Class, Culture and Caste
Social and anthropological studies in Adaptation
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Communicate Existing Evaluation Findings More Effectively
Understand Consequences of Recommendations
Undertake Faster and Better Evaluations
Start Evaluations from the Design Stage
Focus on Learning
Build Capacity in Developing Countries.
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David Akana, Anupam Anand, Dennis Bours, Evelyn Chihuguyu, Kenneth Chomitz, Sara El Choufi, Shanna Rachelle Edberg, Jeneen Reyes Garcia, Francisco Grahammer, Malac Kabir, Muhammad Najeeb Khan, Punji Leagnavar, Simone Marti, Neeraj Kumar Negi, Michelle Pena Nelz, Juan Jose Portillo, Jyotsna Puri, Ruben Sardon, Joshua David Schneck, Kseniya Temnenko, Dania Maria Trespalacios, Rob D. van den Berg, Anna Birgitta Viggh, Claudio Volante, Juha Uitto, Baljit Wadhwa, Mark Wagner, Aaron Zazueta.