Key FindingsMay 2019

Motivation

Ukraine now exceeds many advanced economies in terms of tertiary education enrollment and attainment

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Perc

ent

Tertiary Education Gross Enrollment Ratio

Ukraine ECA EU OECD

Argentina

Chile

Germany

HungaryPoland

Sweden

Ukraine

Portugal

OECD

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5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010P

erce

nt

of

po

pu

lati

on

age

25

+

Population Age 25+ with Tertiary Education

Ukraine spends a high share of its GDP on education

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Uk

rain

e

Un

ited

Kin

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Den

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New

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Un

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Sta

tes

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and

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ia

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gal

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lan

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Arg

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na

Net

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Mex

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ania

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ub

lic

Hu

ngar

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Lu

xem

bou

rg

Ind

ones

ia

Per

cen

t o

f G

DP

Private expenditure on education institutions

Public expenditure on education institutions

Finland

Germany

Japan

South Korea

Poland

Ukraine

U.K.

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0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Per

cent of

GD

P

Public and private spending on education (% of GDP) Public spending on tertiary education (% of GDP)

However, learning outcomes lag behind other countries, both in secondary and tertiary education

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JPN

FIN

BE

L

NL

D

SW

E

AU

T

CZ

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NO

R

US

A

GB

R

DE

U

IRL

CA

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DN

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FR

A

PO

L

KO

R

SV

K

ES

P

RU

S

ITA

UK

R

AR

M

GE

O

Total adult population Adult population with tertiary education (ISCED-1997 5A/6)

Ukr

ain

e

Swit

zerl

and

Un

ited

Sta

tes

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giu

m

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ia

Po

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gap

ore

8.0

9.0

10.0

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15.0

Year

s o

f Sc

ho

ol

Expected Years of School Learning-Adjusted Years of School

Literacy proficiency of adult population in 2011-2013Learning Gap based on Human Capital Index

Public trust in education has deteriorated and corruption is common, particularly in higher education

77% Experience of corruption and service satisfaction in public education

Source: Life in Transition Survey 2016

“Corruption is pervasive or widespread in higher

education”

“Secondary education does not provide equal opportunities to study

for free”

50%

Large supply of tertiary graduates and diminished relevance of credentials have contributed to education-job mismatch, particularly for young university graduates

• Excess relative supply of tertiary educated workers, compared with relative demand*

• Greater share of tertiary educated workers among unemployed: an increase from 32% in 2004 to 47% by 2013

• More young university graduates working in lower-skilled jobs: 40% in 2013, compared to 29% for prime-age and older workers

• 40% of employers reported significant skills gaps which harm business objectives

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Sup

ply

/dem

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at

give

n le

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f ed

uca

tio

n, r

elat

ive

to

oth

er le

vels

of

edu

cati

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Relative supply, university only Relative supply, university AND college

Relative demand, university only Relative demand, university AND college* Estimated based on occupational structure of employment matched to categorization of occupational groups by level of education

Public dissatisfaction and revolution have prompted major transformative reforms which are underway

Higher Education (2014)

• Definition of levels and qualifications

• Creation of higher education activity standards

• Expansion of academic autonomy• Establishment of democratic

management structures in HEIs• Development of scientific R&D• Establishment of National Agency

for Quality Assurance in Higher Education

Budget Decentralization Reform (2014)

• Transfer of control of preschools and general secondary schools to local communities

• Introduction of education subvention (funding formula)

Framework Law ‘On Education’ and New Ukrainian School (2017)

• Movement to competency-based curriculum

• Extension of general secondary education from 11 to 12 years

• Launch of State Service for Quality Education

• Greater autonomy for teachers, schools and local authorities

Flagship Objectives

• Assess progress of reform, answering two key policy questions:

How does Ukraine’s education system perform

in terms of quality and equity of outcomes?

What can Ukraine do to use resources more efficiently

and productively and strengthen the reform

agenda?

Findings

Too many low performers in Ukrainian schools, made worse by segregation

Ukraine

USA

Finland

Japan

South Korea 400 420 440 460 480 500 520 540 560

2007

2011

Harmonized Learning Outcomes

Bottom 20 percent Top 20 Percent

Poor students are clustered in poor schools, and rich-poor performance gap is growing

Students who met only the lowest mathematics achievement benchmark or who failed to achieve that level (TIMSS 2011)

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PoorestQuintile

Q2 Q3 Q4 RichestQuintile

Per

cen

tage

of

Stu

den

ts

Socioeconomic Segregation in Schools

Schools in the highestquintile

Q4

Q3

Q2

Schools in the lowestquintile

Unequal access to preschool means that inequalities start early

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inn

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ola

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her

kass

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v

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Perc

ent

Net Enrollment Rate for Preschool Children Age 3-5 (2017)

Urban Rural

185

190

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215

More thantwo years

Did not go tokindergarten

Attendedpreschoolcourses toprepare for1st grade

Prepared for1st gradewith myfamily

Mat

hem

atic

s sc

ore

Preschool Education and Grade 4 Achievement in Ukraine (2018)

Disparities in quality and performance persist over time

Urban schools Rural schools

Hub schools

All urban

schools

Elite schools

Regular schools

All rural schools

Schools with small

classes

Mean test score in EIT in Ukrainian language / literature

60.3 68 55.2 42.7 43.2 52.5

Mean test score in EIT (all subjects)

44.5 49.7 41.1 33.4 33.4 39.4

Average class size 23.8 25.6 23 13.2 8.28 16.8

Share of students that took EIT in Mathematics (%)

48.9 54.8 45.1 40.3 46.6 44.78

Share of students learning second foreign language (%)

70.8 78.7 64.9 55.4 41.7 67.5

Mean of ICT index 0.67 0.76 0.61 0.20 -0.07 0.64

Mean of material equipment Index

0.93 0.96 0.91 0.33 0.01 0.94

Mean of teachers characteristics index

0.74 0.92 0.62 0.29 0.07 0.55

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Perc

ent

of

Gra

de

4 s

tud

ents

Percent of primary school graduates achieving average threshold (2018)

Based on combined analysis of DISO and EIT results

NUS requires massive paradigm shift for teachers, but teachers’ incentives may not be adequately aligned

• Professional status is unappealing• Lower EIT scores for those entering teacher

education programs • Relatively low salary progression

• Stavka teaching load system devalues the work of professional teachers

• Need to carefully monitor teacher certification pilot process

• Substantial need to upgrade initial teacher education and in-service training in line with NUS

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Rat

io b

etw

een

sta

rtin

g an

d m

axim

um

bas

e sa

lary

Teachers' Salary Progression: Ukraine vs. Comparator Countries

Teachers’ incentives also affect size of teacher workforce

• Large and aging workforce

• 25% are age 55 and above

• 15% are working while in retirement

• Even higher for subject teachers in grades 5-11

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25%

30%

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Sum

y

New vs. Retired Teachers in Grades 5-11

Share of retired teachers Share of new teachers

Education financing formula presents strong economic incentives to improve efficiency

• Crucial change since 2018: formula now provides hard budget constraint if class sizes are smaller than norm in the formula

• LGs in surplus can use resources to enhance quality or expand access to preschool

• The formula should be monitored and adjusted as needed

Need to improve assessment capacity and EIT to better regulate access to higher education

• Gr4 student assessment started only this year

• No Gr9 assessment to assess performance or help orient students for high school• 29 OECD countries have national summative assessments at primary level; 27 at lower secondary level

• EIT brought more transparency and trust to admissions process, but it is now being used for numerous potentially conflicting objectives:• Attestation: EIT as school leaving exam for secondary school students

• Transparent admission to higher education: EIT as university admissions exam

• Quality of applicants: Minimum entrance thresholds for selected programs

• Equity of access: Special coefficients for rural students, certain study fields, regional HEIs

• EIT will also need to be reviewed and revised in light of New Ukrainian School curriculum

Higher education remains the top objective for most young Ukrainians, particularly long-cycle programs from universities

• Composition of demand has changed over time: most students today pursue BA and MA degrees in universities rather than junior specialist degrees in colleges

• BA and MA degrees are perceived as more prestigious and valuable

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e o

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ents

in u

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ersi

ties

Nu

mb

er o

f st

ud

ents

(th

sd)

Students in universities

Students in colleges

% of total tertiary students in universities (RHS)

Unequal access to quality secondary education results in a growing equity gap in graduates’ preparation for higher education and the labor market

Upper secondary education, university track

Grade 9 students

General secondary schools

60% of Grade 10 students

Urban elite schools with specialized curricula

Top scores on admissions exam55% choose to take Math

Urban regular schools 45% choose to take Math

Rural regular schools Lowest scores, more likely to fail40% choose to take Math

Non-tertiary VET colleges

23% of Grade 10 students

Vocational schools

16% of Grade 10 students

Only 52% pass the language cutoff score

Upper secondary education, vocational track

Outcomes

Returns to higher education remain high, but limited academic and career guidance counseling complicates choice of study field

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Years of education

Vocational

Tertiary

Vocational

Tertiary, Economics

Tertiary, Law

Tertiary, Medicine

Tertiary, Technical sciences

Tertiary, Natural sciences

Tertiary, Humanities

Tertiary, Education

Tertiary, Arts

Tertiary, Military and defence

Tertiary, Agriculture

(1)

(2)

(3)

2016 2006

Returns to an extra year of education or a given level of education (compared to upper secondary education or less) on yearly earnings of employees at their main job (%)

• Significant variation in returns by field of study

• Youth without access to guidance are more likely to “randomly” select study fields and occupations

Students with lower access to relevant and high-quality curricular options are less prepared to enter higher education

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Urban Rural Urban Rural

State-funded places Privately funded contract places

Ave

rage

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sco

re (

Ukr

ain

ian

lan

guag

e)

Ad

mit

ted

stu

den

ts (

tho

usa

nd

s)

Higher Education Admissions by Student Origin and EIT Performance (2018)

Number Average EIT score

Only 17% of State-funded places go to rural students• Rural students are less likely to transition to higher education: only 40% of rural EIT test-takers passed, applied and ultimately enrolled (70% for urban students)

• Situation is further complicated by:• Poor access to academic and career guidance

in schools

• Shifting requirements for EIT subject tests in terms of which ones are required for which study fields

To meet a growing demand, the higher education system expanded significantly…

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Stu

den

ts (

in t

ho

usa

nd

s)

Nu

mb

er o

f in

stit

uti

on

s

Evolution of Higher Education Institutions in Ukraine (1991-2019)

Number of colleges

Number ofuniversities,academies andinstitutesStudents in colleges

Students inuniversities,academies andinstitutes

…but subsequent decline in students has created inefficiencies without quality improvements

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2.0

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Ukraine Poland Germany Hungary Romania Spain

HEI

s p

er 1

mill

ion

po

pu

lati

on

Density of HEIs Relative to Population

All HEIs Public HEIs

Poland

Sweden

Ukraine

UK

Finland

Moldova

Romania

Hungary

Belarus

10

12

14

16

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20

22

24

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Stu

den

t-fa

cult

y ra

tio

(h

ead

cou

nt

bas

is)

Student-Faculty Ratio in Tertiary Education

Input-based funding model in higher education has created perverse incentives to lower admissions and quality standards

• Set by quota for each major, then allocated to ministries

• HEIs are more dependent on public funds given declining student numbers

• Historically, HEIs have sought to offset this by lowering the bar: • Admitting more students with lower levels of preparation (State- and privately

funded)• Watering down entrance requirements by accepting irrelevant (easier) EIT subject

tests• Passing under-performing students to keep them enrolled and ensure funding

stream

HEIs have financial incentives to maximize fee-paying students to compensate for declining public funds

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Junior Specialist

Bachelor

Master

Specialist

Number of enrolled students (thousands)

Enrolled Students, by Program, Type of Funding and Form of Study

State-funded, intramural State-funded, extramural and evening

Self-funded, intramural Self-funded, extramural and evening

• 55-60% of current higher education students are paying fees (roughly constant over time)o Particularly in social sciences

and humanities

• About half of those fee-paying students are in distance/evening programs

• Dual track system disadvantages poorer students, even though fees are relatively low

Several positive steps have been taken to improve transparency of funding and create competitive pressure to improve quality

• BA Admissions Algorithm: Significant change in 2016 to improve transparency: BA places are now distributed based on an algorithm-based ranking: money follows applicants, creating competition among HEIs

• MA University Ranking based on output-based indicators to allocate publicly funded seats

• EIT Standardization: MoES started in 2018 to determine the specific EIT certificates which universities had to demand for applicants for each major

• Closing the ‘College Loophole’: Students entering BA programs from colleges will take EIT starting from 2019

However, funding model remains unsustainable as it is disconnected from cost of service delivery

• Amount of budget funding and number of state-funded places are decided independently

• Some HEIs receive special coefficients which have increased salaries (and total spending)

• Result is funding gaps even for the same study field: • For medicine, per-student funding under MoES

university is 12% higher than under MoHuniversity, despite same curricula

• Good practice reflects differences in actual cost of delivery as a principle for ensuring financial sustainability (e.g. Netherlands, Latvia)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Chernivtsi National University 'Yuri Fedkovich'

State HEI 'Vasyl Stefanyk Precarpathian National University'

National University "Odessa Law Academy"

State HEI 'Uzhgorod National University'

Kyiv National Trade and Economics University

Lviv Ivan Franko National University

State HEI Kyiv National Economic University 'Vadym Hetman'

Kharkiv National University 'VN Karazin'

National Pedagogical University 'MP Drahomanov'

National Aviation University

National University of Life and Envir Sciences Ukraine

NTU 'Kharkiv Polytechnic Institute'

National University "Lviv Polytechnic"

NTUU Igor Sikorsky Kiev Polytechnic Institute

Kyiv National Taras Shevchenko University

Per-Student Funding in 15 Largest Universities

Average of HEI own funding per tuition-paid student, FT and PT, 2017, (thsd UAH)

Average of State funding per state-funded student, FT and PT (2017, thsd UAH)

With limited information on quality and relevance in specific HEIs, funding remains focused on quantity

• Little systematic information for students, employers, or policymakers to compare quality and relevance of respective HEIs, such as:• Retention, completion and dropout rates • University rankings• Graduate tracer studies• Research output (if applicable)

• 2014 law gave HEIs more autonomy (but not financial autonomy)

• Without more information on their performance vis-à-vis their mission, it is difficult to hold HEIs accountable

Corruption and academic integrity violations are prevalent; both students and faculty have incentives to participate

• 25-30% of students have directly engaged in academic misconduct or bribery, with larger shares exposed

• Academic integrity concept is relatively new

• Students at risk: under-prepared students, dormitory residents and part-time workers

• Intense testing regimen may contribute, and students with State-funded scholarships fear losing that status

• Low faculty salaries also a contributing factor• Faculty members required by law to receive equal

salaries regardless of study field

1 2 3 4 5

Using cheat sheets during exams

Copying somebody's work during exams or tests

Writing a paper, but with extensive plagiarism

Deceiving professor while explaining study…

Downloading a paper from the internet

Encountered bribes at universities

Buying a paper from companies or classmates

Asking a professor for an indivdiual approach

From 1 (never) to 5 (systematically)

Experience and Perception of Academic Misconduct

General perception Personal experience

Recommendations

Extend NUS vision for competency-based inclusive learning to other segments of the system, particularly higher education

• Align secondary and tertiary enrollment and graduates over the longer term with market needs and labor demand➢Starting with reforms in upper secondary education

• Align curriculum and pedagogy towards 21st century skills demanded by the market ➢ In upper secondary and higher education

• Maintain focus on equity by expanding access to early learning for vulnerable groups and promoting inclusive education

Strong institutional governance structures

Targeted resource flows

Alignment of incentives

Effective feedback

Strategic vision

based on NUS

Address four imbalances:

• Reforms have decentralized and democratized the education system

• With more autonomy comes more requirements for accountability, responsibility, and assessment

Specific Areas for Action: Governance and Financing

• Strengthen institutional governance structures• Strengthen managerial capacity for decentralization at regional, local and school levels

• Develop internal governance capacity of HEIs

• Strengthen internal and external quality assurance functions

• Better communication, outreach and stakeholder engagement to facilitate reform process

• Target resource flows towards sustainable growth • Reform public funding of model higher education to consolidate resources while incentivizing

competition, performance and excellence

• Introduce additional financial incentives to reward or penalize HEIs depending on efficiency of resource use

• Monitor and adjust secondary school financing formula to monitor impact on school network optimization and equity

Specific Areas for Action: Incentives and Information

• Align incentives and capabilities • Reform teachers’ career path, including teaching load (Stavka) system for organization and

compensating teachers’ work and opportunities for professional development

• Harmonize External Independent Test with NUS and broader vision for higher education

• Review and reform career path for university faculty with movement away form teaching load system

• Strengthen incentives and tools for academic integrity and anti-corruption in universities

• Provide effective feedback and information on systemic results • Strengthen systems for monitoring quality and assessing learning in preschool and secondary

education

• Develop programs for counseling and guidance services as key pillar of upper secondary reform

• Improve data collection and monitoring of HEI performance through introduction of student surveys, university rankings, graduate tracer studies, etc.

Ukraine Improving Education for Results Project

• Project scope may include:• Improve quality and equity in upper secondary education with a focus on

college readiness

• Strengthen systems for assessing learning outcomes, monitoring system performance and ensuring equity in both upper secondary and higher education

• Increase efficiency, equity, transparency of resource use through adjustment of secondary financing formula and introduction of institutional finance reforms in higher education

• Strengthen capacity for decentralized service delivery in line with ongoing reforms