1 June 2017

UK REAL ESTATE MARKET

JOHN SLADE

Agenda

2

A CHANGING WORLD…

MY CAREER

ECONOMIC CHALLENGES

LONDON’S BOUNCEBACKABILITY

BNPPRE IS CHANGING

TAKE ADVANTAGE OF CHANGE

1. A Changing World…

1. A Changing World – do we still expect the unexpected?

4

2016 was the year of the low probability event!

UK voted to leave the EU

after historic referendum

Trump defies odds to become

45th US President

Emmanuel Macron

Theresa May

Mark Rutte

1. A Changing World – Risk Index

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But what comes next? There are many risks …

Article 50 Dutch Election French Election German Election UK Election

Trump –

trade wars/

real wars

Middle East More severe

downturn in

Chinese economy

Terrorism Theresa May –

UK election

2. My Career

2. My Career

Management

Agency/investment

broker (including

CBRE and DTZ)

Owned my own

property company

Today I am CEO of

the real estate

adviser for a

changing world

7

. Economic Challenges

3. Economic Challenges

80’s - 90’s

Oversupply, weak economy

2007

Global Financial Crisis,

Banking led

2016

Political, Brexit

9

4. London’s Bouncebackability

4. London’s Strength & Bouncebackability I went on holiday in 2009 for end of August/beginning of September. When I came back the market had

moved by 150 bps.

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4. London’s Strength & Bouncebackability We learned through our Cycology report that London will continue to provide resilience and opportunity

because of its bouncebackability

• London ranks no 1 in PwC Cities of Opportunity Index –

benchmarking study of 30 leading business centres globally. Study

Sept 2016

• It measures cities performance against 10 indicators including

transportation and infrastructure, ease of doing business,

demographics and liveability, technology readiness and cost.

• Singapore 2nd, Toronto 3rd

…DESPITE EVERYTHING THAT I SAID

ABOUT CAUTION THROUGH BREXIT,

LONDON HAS MANY, MANY OTHER

ATTRIBUTES THAT WILL MAKE IT A VERY

SUSTAINABLE INVESTMENT LOCATION

…ALL ARE MADE PRETTY WELCOME

HERE, I THINK IT’S A GREAT

CULTURE, LONDON IT’S A GREAT

PLACE FOR PEOPLE TO BE AND THEY

WANT OT BE HERE, IT’S WHERE THE

TALENT IS..

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Infrastructure + Urbanisation = SMART LONDON

4. London’s Strength & Bouncebackability

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4. London’s strength & bouncebackability

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TALENT: London’s employment base in London is more diverse than ever

Source: Experian / ONS

FINANCE VS MEDIATECH HEADCOUNT Article 50 = speculation jobs will decrease

Finance decrease, MediaTech increase

4. London’s Strength & Bouncebackability Post referendum deals

Largest office deal of 2016 –

Government Property Unit

took 540,000 sq ft at 20

Cabot Square

7&8 St James’s Square

£245m, Private Asian

Elizabeth House, Waterloo

£250m, Private European

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5. Take Advantage Of Change

5. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF CHANGE

Adaptable

Forecasting

Trends

Disjoint between investment & occupier – occupier

market goes first so watch for signs

Economics & fundamentals

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6. BNPPRE Is Changing

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6. BNPPRE IS CHANGING 2009

Atisreal rebrands to

BNP Paribas Real

Estate at bottom of the

market

2012

• John Slade joins as CEO and

promises growth

• BNPPRE UK launches

property development

business in the UK

2013

BNPPRE recruits 50

directors in 12 months

and sets up a powerful

investment business

2014

BNPPRE recruits another 50 directors

across retail, agency, investment and

regions

BNPPRE launches its first UK

development scheme at King’s Cross

2015

In 3 years, BNPPRE’s UK

turnover up 40% and profit

up 200%

BNPPRE announces it will

develop residential in the

UK

2016

• BNPPRE launches

international retail, logistics

and occupier (GCS)

businesses in London

2017

• Post EU Referendum,

BNPPRE has its best

ever start to the year with

£1bn under offer by end

Feb

What Will

Happen Next?

1 June 2017

UK REAL ESTATE MARKET

JOHN SLADE