UGANDA Current Acute Food Insecurity Situation Created on: … · 2017-03-11 · update the Acute...
Transcript of UGANDA Current Acute Food Insecurity Situation Created on: … · 2017-03-11 · update the Acute...
(000s)
Acute Food Insecurity Phase
Not Analyzed
Emergency
Crisis
Stressed
Minimal
Areas with Inadequate Evidence
1
2
3
4
Famine
Urban/Settlement Area would likely be at least 1 Phase worse without the effects of humanitarian assistance
UGANDA – Current Acute Food Insecurity Situation
Key for Map
Phase
24,171
9,278 1,586
Validity :
Created on: Jan - March 2017
27 Jan 2017
For more information, contact:
SUMMARY OF CAUSES, CONTEXT AND KEY ISSUES
The proportion of food secure population (phase 1) has declined from 83% in
July 2016 to 69% in January 2017. An estimated 10.9 million people are
experiencing acute food insecurity (phase 2 and 3), of which 1.6 million (5%)
are in a crisis situation (phase 3). Those in phase 3 are found in Central-1
(0.58 million); Karamoja (0.12 million), Teso (0.2 million), East Central (0.38
million) and South Western (0.31 million) regions. All regions in the country
have a combined food security stressed population of 9.3 million (26%).
The worsening food security situation is attributed to the effects of the 2016
La nina event which resulted into reduced crop and livestock production.
There has also been excessive sale of food resulting into reduced
household stocks and high food prices. Resurgence of crop and livestock
pests and diseases also contributed to reduction in production.
WORST AFFECTED REGIONS TESO Food consumption: over 10% consume 1 meal a day Livelihood change: declining terms of trade of cereal to livestock; 50% Asset stripping GAM: Admissions at 4 000 from Oct.-Dec. 2016 KARAMOJA Food consumption: 12.5% poor FCS, 50% consume 1 meal a day Livelihood change: declining terms of trade of cereal to livestock; 9% Asset stripping GAM: 12%; Admissions at 10,500 from Oct.-Dec.2016 CENTRAL 1: Food consumption: 35% consume 1 meal a day Livelihood change: 13% employing crisis strategies GAM: Admissions 4 000 from Oct.-Dec.2016 EAST CENTRAL Food consumption: 10% consume 1 meal a day Livelihood change: 15% employing crisis strategies; GAM: 7.2% GAM rates in Namutumba & Kaliro; admissions at 2 000 from Oct.-Dec.2016; SOUTH WESTERN Food consumption: 3% poor FCS; 4% one meal a day Livelihood change: 10% employing crisis strategies; GAM: Admissions at 7 000 from Oct.-Dec. 2016
Analysis Partners & Supporting Organizations:
MAAIF, OPM, MOH, NPA, FAO, WFP, UNDP, UNICEF, FEWSNET,
MUK, DISTRICT LOCAL GOVTs
5
Area has reached Phase 3, 4, or 5 for more than 3 consecutive years
IPC Technical Working Group Secretariat Tel: 0772479309 Chair of the IPC TWG MAAIF [email protected])
No Change
Improving
Worsening
Confidence of analysis Acceptable Medium
High
IPC Global Partners
Key for Callout Boxes
Disclaimer: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the Collaborating Organizations and the IPC Global Partners.
Aggregate Numbers
69%
26%
5%
Regions Availability Access Utilization
Acholi
Lango
West Nile
Karamoja
Teso
East central
Elgon
Western
South Western
Central 1
Central 2
Limiting factors to food security
Recommendations for Next Steps (Discuss expected and recommended next steps focusing on analytical activities, monitoring actions and linkage to action)
Key Findings and Issues
69% of the total population in the country is minimally food insecure (IPC Phase 1). This population’s food
security situation is stable and has access to a variety of adequate food both from household stocks and the market.
These households still have food stocks from the second harvest that are expected to last for the next 2-3 months
and there is unlikely to be any food shortages for those that depend on market purchase. This proportion of the
population have adequate income to purchase food from the markets. However, livestock production for this
population is average due to declining pasture and water conditions as dry conditions persist. The population
currently in IPC Phase 1 is expected to remain in the same phase though stress may increase just before the rains
start.
26% of the total population in the country is facing stressed food insecurity (IPC Phase 2). This population
has minimum adequate food consumption, employing insurance strategies and are unable to afford some essential
non-food expenditures. All regions in the country have a stressed population with East Central having the highest
population (at 1.88 million) followed by South Western (1.24 million), Teso (1.1 million) and West Nile (1.04
million). The prolonged dry spell due to the La nina event coupled with increasing incidences of crop and livestock
pests and diseases such as Cassava Brown Streak, Cassava Mosaic, maize stalk borer, striga and Banana Bacterial
Wilt grossly affected production reducing the availability and accessibility of food for this population. The low crop
and livestock production negatively impacted household food stocks leading to increased reliance on markets for
food. Increasing demand from external markets has induced food price increases, making it difficult for poor
households to access food from the market. Deteriorating water and pasture conditions mainly in the cattle corridor
have resulted in migrations of livestock keepers, reduction in livestock production and increased spread of
livestock diseases. Livestock keepers have been reported to migrate from Karamoja to Lango, Acholi, Teso and
Elgon competing for pasture and water. The over whelming influx of refugees from South Sudan has increased
demand for food and services in West Nile region.
5% of the total population in the country is in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). This population has widening food
consumption gaps with deteriorating dietary diversity and high malnutrition rates. They are found in Central 1 (0.58
million), Karamoja (0.12 million), Teso (0.2 million), East Central (0.38 million) and South Western (0.31 million)
regions. The affected population includes the poorest households with poor food consumption score, low meal
frequencies of up to 1 meal a day and low dietary diversity of less than 3 food groups. They have poor purchasing
power as their incomes are low and no food stocks at household level. They are mainly coping through food
assistance, remittances from relatives, begging, stealing food, wild food gathering and irreversible sale of productive
assets to buy food. This population currently needs assistance to bridge the widening food consumption gaps and
avert worsening malnutrition.
Contact for Further Information
IPC Technical Working Group chair: Hakuza Annunciata, [email protected] IPC Global Support Unit: www.ipcinfo.org
Limiting Factors to Food Security Limiting factors to food security
Regions Availability Access Utilization
Acholi
Lango
West Nile
Karamoja
Teso
East central
Elgon
Western
South
Western
Central 1
Central 2
The factors constraining households from being food secure are:
Food Availability: Poor crop harvests and low food stocks at
household level due to the effects of prolonged dry spells and
crop and livestock diseases
Food Access: High food prices coupled with low household
incomes are reducing purchasing power thus limiting access to
food.
Food Utilization: Poor food preparation practices, food
preferences based on Culture and poor hygiene practices are
constraining physical and biological utilization.
Key
Major Limiting Factor
Minor Limiting Factor
Not a limiting Factor
Seasonal Calendar (Source: FEWSNET)
In 2016, the 1st rains came later than had been expected thus leading to a general delay in the 1st rainy season in the country
when compared to normal times. A dry spell was experienced from June to July and in some places even up to August. The most
affected areas include Karamoja, Teso, and West Nile, which received rainfall far below the normal. According to UNMA (Jan.
2017) the second season rainfall performance was again depressed across the country. The seasonal onset was late, the
distribution both in time and space, was also poor throughout the country. The generally poor rainfall performance in the
country was as a result of La Nina phenomenon in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean and the negative Indian Ocean Dipole
(IOD) particularly during the months of October and November 2016. The rains generally affected the 1st season and 2nd
season harvests thus reducing the stocks and leading to food price hikes. The rainfall outlook for the month of January and
February 2017, indicates that most parts of the country will remain generally sunny and dry except a few areas in south-western
Uganda and Lake Victoria basin which are likely to experience light to moderate rainfall amounts.
RISK FACTORS TO MONITOR BETWEEN
FEBRUARY- APRIL 2017
Food Stocks
Crop and Livestock pests and diseases
Vegetation condition (February –April 2017)
Availability of water and pasture for livestock
(February –March 2017)
Monthly Food price hikes (February – April 2017)
Monthly Rainfall Performances (February to April
2017)
War in South Sudan & Refugee Influx
Human disease epidemics
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR NEXT STEPS FOR
THE ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING
Disseminate information to policy makers for
immediate, short, medium and long term actions
Conduct a food security assessment to update the
information and IPC map in April 2017.
Methods, Process & Key Issues
This analysis was conducted at a workshop held at Ridar Hotel, Mukono from 16th – 20th, January, 2017. It was attended by
participants from the IPC TWG, OPM, MAAIF, UN agencies and District Local Government representatives. The workshop
was facilitated by the IPC TWG, MAAIF and OPM and funded by the World Bank. The main objective of this analysis was to
update the Acute IPC food security classification for Uganda for the period January to March 2017. The IPC analysis was
preceded by a nation-wide food security assessment coordinated by OPM's Department of Relief, Disaster Preparedness and
Management. Eighty-four (84) out of 116 districts responded to the assessment exercise.
Limitation for the Analysis:
1. Inadequate data at the time of the analysis on some outcome indicators mainly on mortality and malnutrition.
2. The analysis was mainly based on secondary data collected from key informants from DLGs and focus group
discussions. There was need to collect household level data to support information provided by key informant and
FGDs.
3. Absence of seasonal weather forecast (MAM) during the period of analysis.
Contact for Further Information
IPC Technical Working Group chair: Hakuza Annuciata, [email protected] IPC Global Support Unit: www.ipcinfo.org
Contact for Further Information
IPC Technical Working Group chair: Hakuza Annunciata, [email protected] IPC Global Support Unit: www.ipcinfo.org
Uganda Population Table: IPC Acute Food Insecurity January 2017-May 2017
Population
(UBOS
projections
2016)
% of
pop’nNo.
% of
pop’nNo.
% of
pop’nNo.
Acholi 1,580,300 88 1,390,664 12 189,636 0 0
Central 1 4,486,300 65 2,916,095 22 986,986 13 583,219
Central 2 4,052,300 94 3,809,162 6 243,138 0 0
East Central 3,767,400 40 1,506,960 50 1,883,700 10 376,740
Elgon 3,850,700 75 2,888,025 25 962,675 0 0
Karamoja 1,025,800 58 594,964 30 307,740 12 123,096
Lango 2,174,600 80 1,739,680 20 434,920 0 0
South Western 4,421,700 65 2,874,105 28 1,238,076 7 309,519
Teso 1,936,100 33 638,913 57 1,103,577 10 193,610
Western 4,926,500 82 4,039,730 18 886,770 0 0
West Nile 2,814,000 63 1,772,820 37 1,041,180 0 0
Uganda (less:
Kampala)35,035,700 69 24,171,118 26 9,278,398 5 1,586,184
IPC Region
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
Recommendations and Response options Phases Regions Immediate causes Immediate Response Actions
Overall Phase 2 -
with population
in phase 3
Karamoja
Teso
Prolonged dry spells
Low agricultural production
Reduced purchasing power due to food price increases
Reduced water access for humans and livestock
Poor hygiene and sanitation
Limited diversification of livelihoods
Food assistance (in kind/ cash transfers) for population in crisis
Facilitate access to planting materials and seed for next planting
season
Construct water infrastructure and rehabilitate water sources.
Promote water conservation and irrigation
Scale-up ongoing nutritional intiatives
Promote livelihood diversification programs
Promote risk transfering mechanisms
Food security and nutrtion surveillance
East Central South western Central 1
Prolonged dry spells
Low agricultural production
Reduced purchasing power due to food price increases
Pest and disease resurgence especially of striga, BBW
Preference for land use for sugarcane growing
Reduced pasture and water for livestock
Declining soil fertility
Food assistance (in kind/ cash transfers) for population in crisis
Facilitate access to planting materials and seed for next planting
season
Construct water infrastructure and rehabilitate water sources.
Promote water conservation and irrigation
Promote drought and disease tolerant high yielding crop varieties
Timely issuance of early warning for cropping seasons
Food security and nutrtion surveillance
Phase 2 -
no
population
in phase 3
West Nile
Prolonged dry spells
Low agricultural production
Refugee influx constraining acess to food and services
Human disease esp. malaria
Reduced purchasing power due to food price increases
Water shortage
Facilitate access to planting materials and seed for next planting
season
Construct water infrastructure and rehabilitate water sources.
Promote water conservation and irrigation
Promote drought and disease tolerant high yielding crop varieties
Food security, nutrition and disease surveillance
Safety nets to include host communities
Continous monitoring of vulnerable population
Elgon
Lango
Prolonged dry spells
Crop and livestock pests and disease
Human disease esp. malaria and cholera
Influx of pastoralists searching for water and pasture
Increasing food prices are reducing purchasing power
Inadequate water and pasture for livestock
Facilitate access to planting materials and seed for next planting
season
Construct water infrastructure and rehabilitate water sources.
Promote water conservation and irrigation
Promote drought and disease tolerant high yielding crop varieties
Food security, nutrition and disease surveillance
Promote alternative sources of income
Phase 1 Acholi
Western
Central 2
Erratic/ insufficient rains and prolonged dry spells
Crop and livestock Pests and diseases
Lack of inputs and tools
Inadequate extension services
Reduced soil fertility
High food prices
Excessive sale of food
Facilitate access to planting materials and seed for next planting
season
Construct water infrastructure and rehabilitate water sources.
Intiate community by laws to compel households store sufficient food