TRIM Daily - Trimegah filePT Trimegah Securities Tbk - TRIM DAILY 1 Mitra Keluarga (MIKA) rose by...

TRIM DAILY PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 1

Mitra Keluarga (MIKA) rose by ~25% on its debut with potentially more near-

term upside—with IDR 30tr market cap there is a decent probability of inclu-

sion into MSCI. Among big caps, bank sector continued ascending, while

PGAS and GGRM down ~3% yesterday due to volume concern for PGAS

(Buy, TP 6000) and excise tax concern for GGRM (Buy, TP 57500). However,

PGAS’ dividend yield now more attractive at 4.4%. ACST: 68% of new con-

tracts target achieved, positive. NIRO: Warburg will invest 35% at subsidiary

level.

TRIM Daily

TRIM Highlights

Mar 25, 2015

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) up by 10 poin or 0.2% to 5,448 yesterday. Index movers were mostly driven by trade, finance and consumer. Total transaction value was Rp5.6tr. IDX recorded RP953bn net sell by foreign investors. We expect JCI to experience profit taking within the range of 5412-5464

Technical Market View

Greece risks running out of cash by April 20 unless it secures fresh aid. Fortunately, Athens will present a package of reforms for Greece by Monday amounted € 1.9bn.

Global Wrap

Technical analysis: trading picks

JCI 5,447.7

Global Indices

Reksa Dana Trimegah Asset Management

Dual Listing (NYSE) Others

(USD) (Rp) Chg %

44.6 14,400 -0.02 -0.0TLKM

Change 0.19%

Transaction Volume (m) 5,612

Transaction Value (Rpbn) 8,122

Mkt Cap (Rptr) 5,461

Market 2015 P/E (x) 14.3

Market Div. Yield (%) 2.4%

Price Chg %

Dow Jones 18,011.1 -104.9 -0.6

Nasdaq 4,994.7 -16.2 -0.3

Nikkei 19,713.5 -40.9 -0.2

ST Times 3,413.3 3.1 0.1

FTSE 7,019.7 -18.0 -0.3

Hang Seng 24,399.6 -94.9 -0.4

NAB Chg %

Trim Kapital 9,677.1 11 0.1

Trim Kapital + 3,491.6 1.5 0.0

Trim Syariah SHM 1,720.7 -4.8 -0.3

Tram Consumption +1,557.5 0.7 0.0

Trim Komb 2 2,106.7 -0.7 -0.0

Trim Syariah B 2,442.1 -5.8 -0.2

Trim Dana Stabil 2,220.9 1.2 0.1

Trim Dana Tetap 2 1,782.6 0.0 0.0

Tram PDPT USD 1.1 0.0 0.1

Tram Reguler INC 994.7 0.0 0.0

Tram Strategic Fund 1,199.7 5.3 0.4

Trim Kas 2 1,149.4 0.2 0.0

Chg %

USD IDR 12,912 -110 -0.8

10 yr Indo Govr bond (%) 7.24 -0.1 -1.4

10 yr US govt bond (%) 1.9 -0.04 -2.0

Spread (%) 5.37 -0.07 0.6

EIDO 27.5 0.2 0.8

Foreign YtD (USDmn) 483 -73 -13

Stock Price Rating Reason

UNVR 38900 Buy

With stochastic indicator to form a golden cross, we expect a technical rebound for UNVR today in the range of 38150-40125

ITMG 17650 Buy ITMG remains strong with potential upside in the range of 17300-18000 for today.

BSDE 2055 Buy

BSDE formed a white long candle with increasing transaction volumes, indicates further upward movement for today with support and resistance levels of 2005-2125

ERAA 985 Buy

With a doji formation ERAA and potential golden cross on its stochastic oscillator ERAA is a Buy. ERAA’s support and re-sistance level ranging between 980-1020 for today.

ASII 8150 Sell

With the last Three days fast increase, ASII is Overbought, in our view. We ex-pect a technical correction for the stock today with trading range at 8025-8300

LPKR 1270 Sell

Despite its long term bullish pattern re-mains intact, we expect a technical corec-tion for LPKR today in the range of 1195-1310

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 2

News of the Day

Banking: The govt may seek offshore borrowing to

fund infrastructure projects

The Indonesian Government may be seeking for offshore

borrowing from Japanese and Chinese banks to support

infrastructure financing by SOE banks. The SOE Ministry

executive, Gatot Trihargo, mentioned that the decreasing

CAR on SOE banks may push them to seek funding from

abroad. However, this plan is subject to parliament approval.

Source: Investor Daily ([email protected])

BMRI: ready to expand to Malaysia

The largest state-owned lender, BMRI, is preparing to expand

to Malaysia following the country openness toward Indone-

sian banks expansion. BMRI is going to establish a subsidiary

in Malaysia instead of opening branch, said Head of Interna-

tional Banking, Ferry Robbani. He further added that

MYR300mn (Rp1.06tr) capital is required as a minimum

requirement to open a bank in Malaysia. The company will

focus on Malaysian retail segment. Source: Bisnis Indonesia

Comment:

We view this news as a Neutral for BMRI (Neutral, TP

Rp12,400) considering the possible challenge in penetrating

Malaysian retail market. In addition, Malaysian banks mar-

gins may not be as high as Indonesian banks. Therefore, we

are still sceptical if this overseas expansion will benefit BMRI

going forward. ([email protected])

BBTN: eyeing for the 7th largest banks in terms of

asset in 2017

The state-owned lender which focuses on mortgage financ-

ing, BBTN, is optimistic to be the 7th largest bank in terms of

asset in 2017. This will be supported by less dividend payout

ratio (20% vs previously 30%) and loan growth from 1

million houses program by the government. Moreover, the

new President Commissioner is Sukardi Rinakit, an independ-

ent political analyst who is close to PDIP. Not much changes

in its management structure. Source: Bisnis Indonesia

([email protected])

APLN: Central Park will not increase mall rent despite

USD hike.

APLN’s Central Park currently hosts 400 tenants, with 95%

occupancy rate. There will not be any currency affected rent

increase due to IDR being their transaction currency. APLN

currently developing New Soho within the same complex,

aimed for Q1 2016 completion. New Soho will be connected

with Central Park through its Sky Bridge, aiming to help

increase their reccuring income. Source: Kontan

([email protected])

Oil: Current national oil production still below this year’s

state target

Upstream Oil and Gas Regulator (SKK Migas) said that oil

production is currently around 762,000 barrels/day, far lower

than the government’s budget target of 825k barrels/day this

year. Additional output is expected to gradually increase to

80k barrels/day starting in April 2015, a double compared to

current level at 40k barrels/day. The block’s contractor

(Pertamina & Exxonmobil) is currently awaiting for approval

from the Environment and Forestry Ministry for an environ-

ment impact analysis before it could start ramping up produc-

tion. Source: The Jakarta Post ([email protected])

Comment:

With the continuous oil production decline, high crude oil

volume imports is imminent and may cause state budget

pressures going forward. It is a matter of time where oil refin-

eries and gas infrastructure projects are executed to tackle the

nation’s depleting oil reserves. Direct beneficiaries of rise in oil

production activities are Soechi Lines (SOCI IJ), AKR Corporin-

do (AKRA IJ) and ELnusa (ELSA IJ).

Automotive: Mitsubihi to make Indonesia as its main

production base

Indonesia will become the small multipurpose vehicle (SMPV)

production base for Mitsubishi worldwide as it will built

IDR6.6trn new plant which will commence in Cikarang (West

Java) in April 2017. The production capacity is 160-240k units/

year (80k units/year for SMPV). Source: Investor Daily

([email protected])

Comment:

The production capacity is more than 13% of 2014’s national

4W sales volume. We expect the 4W competition to remain

intense in the next 5 years. We like comprehensive automotive

plays that have mixture of 4W and 2W as well as mixture of

strong brand holdings (eg; Honda 2W and Nissan 4W) such as

Mitra Pinasthika (MPMX).

ACST: New contract booked has reached Rp1.4tr or 68%

of FY15 target

ACST booked new contracts totaling Rp1.4tr as of Mar’15. Most

of the new contracts obtained have started the tender offer

process since last year. The amount represents 68% of FY15

new contract target at Rp2.0tr. Several new projects are:

Thamrin Nine, Millenium Centennial, and Langham Senopati

Project. Source: Bisnis Indonesia

Comment

The news is positive. In Thamrin Nine project, ACST obtained

more than Rp1.0tr project value to build 71 storeys high

building. We are reviewing our forecast and recommendation

on ACST but maintain positive outlook due to joining to Astra

Group. ([email protected])


News of the Day

NIRO: Warburg Pincus LLC plans 35% NIRO subsidiary

equity acquisition.

Warburg plans to purchase NIRO subsidiary, PT Nirvana

Wastu Pratama, 35% equity at a Rp.1,100 price per share,

decreasing NIRO’s ownership to 65%. Warburg had signed a

conditional share subscription agreement. NWP operates

shopping malls and hotels in Cirebon, Sampit and Pangkalan

Bun. NWP also plans to build malls in 8 different locations.

Warburg plans to spend Rp2.6tr for NIRO’s future shopping

mall developments, focusing on second and third class cities

i n I n d o n e s i a . S o u r c e : I n v e s t o r D a i l y

([email protected])

CTRA: New 14Ha landed residential project in Pontia-

nak and 15Ha landed residential project in Batam.

CTRA currently developing Ciputra Garden Aneka, a 14Ha

project worth Rp.500bn in Pontianak, aims to finish develop-

ment in 5 years. 80 units are offered in the first phase,

priced at Rp.1.2bn, 30% sold. CTRA will also start develop-

ing CitraLand Megah Batam, a 15Ha high-end landed resi

project with unit price starting from Rp.3bn per unit, with

unit size ranging from 245 – 490 sqm building, 160 – 280

sqm land. Hotel, office tower, apartment and retail facilities

will be built within the complex. Source: Investor Daily

([email protected])

BSDE: Sinar Mas launches Marigold Condominium

BSDE had launched Marigold Condominium within BSD City’s

mix residential area, NavaPark. The project is a 68Ha joint

venture with Hongkong Land, would consist 6 upper segment

towers with direct access to NavaPark Botanical Park. Priced

at Rp.22.5mn per sqm. Source: Investor Daily

Comment:

BSDE’s upper segment apartment in Serpong, will compete

directly with Saumata Alam Sutera, which is currently being

s o l d a t R p 2 0 m n – 2 2 m n p e r s q m .

([email protected])

BPJS Ketenagakerjaan will invest Rp.19.3tn in Proper-

ty.

BPJS Ketenagakerjaan to invest Rp.19.3tn (10% of their

AUM) in low-end high-rise property in Jabodetabek, Ban-

dung, Central Java, East Java, North Sumatera and South

S u l a w e s i . S o u r c e : I n v e s t o r D a i l y

([email protected])

DART: Duta Anggada hunts for Industrial Land.

DART, a member of Sinar Mas Group, plans for 500Ha land

acquisition in Banten until 2016. The company had bought

107Ha since end 2014. DART aims to control 1000Ha of indus-

trial land in Banten. 2015’s budget will be allocated towards

land acquisition. DART also eyes Tanjung Api-api, South Su-

matera for future land acquisition. DART revenue stands at Rp.

992mn per 30th September 2014, with YTD earnings of

Rp.313mn. Source: Kontan ([email protected])

SUPR: Private placement plan for ~30%

SUPR plan for private placement for ~30% shares currently

owned by Cahaya Anugerah Nusantara Holdings Limited

(currently owned 25.51%) and PT Kharisma Indah Ekaprima

(currently owned 43.2%). The company targets to complete

the private placement by 2Q15. Source: Kontan

([email protected])

BSIM: to conduct rights issue in 2016

BSIM is preparing for rights issue in 2016 to be one of the

banks under business group III (BUKU III). CEO Freeyan

Liwang said that the company will conduct general sharehold-

ers meeting next July to discuss about this rights issue plan.

The additional capital needed to be under BUKU III category is

Rp2tr. Source: Bisnis Indonesia ([email protected])

RANC: Realized 50-67% of new outlets’ FY target

For 2015, RANC targets revenue of Rp1.85tr and aims to open

3-4 new oulets. The company said it achieved double digit

growth last year and expects positive growth in 1Q15. RANC

has opened 2 outlets (“Ranch Market” in Surabaya and

Serpong) this year, realizing 50-67% of its FY target. Remain-

ing targeted outlets are planned to be open in 3Q15. One of

the location plan for Farmers Market in Jakarta is Jl. Fatmawa-

ti. The company also has provided online shopping service

through mobile application (HappyFresh) targetting consumers

around Greater Jakarta. Source: kontan.co.id, liputan6.com

([email protected])


Table

Indo Market PE vs Regional (Weekly)

Indo Market PE vs 10yr Bond Yield

Oil Price (Brent), Coal Price (Newcastle), Gold

Foreign Fund Flow in last 5 & 30 days

5yr Bond Yield Indo (USD) vs US Bond Yield

CPO Price, Soybean Price (both 1m Futures)

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

2010

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

(x)

Weekly Hang Seng Singapore Thailand Philippines Malaysia Indonesia

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Mar-14

Apr-14

Apr-14

May-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jun-14

Jun-14

Jul-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Sep-14

Oct-

14

Oct-

14

Nov-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Mar-15

(%) Bond Yield US Ind 5yr Bond Yield Indo in USD

-146

26

1,096

-17 -6

394

-35

78

3,138

-95

20

2,804

(500)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

IND

ON

ESIA

PH

ILIP

PIN

ES

SO

UTH

KO

REA

TH

AIL

AN

D

VIE

TN

AM

IND

IA

(USDmn) 5 Days 30 Days

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Mar-

14

Apr-

14

May-14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

(USD/ Troy oz.)(USD)

Brent Crude Oil (bbl) (LHS) Coal (mt) (LHS) Gold (RHS)

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Mar-

14

Apr-

14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

(USD Bushels)(MYR Tons)

CPO Malaysia (LHS) Soybean (RHS)

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

15.0

Mar-

14

Apr-

14

May-

14

Jun-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-

14

Sep-

14

Oct-

14

Nov-

14

Dec-

14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar-

15

(%)(X) JCI PE (LHS) Indo 10Yr Bond Yield (RHS)


Table

INCO, ANTM vs Nickel price (LME)

Coal Price (Newcastle) vs Coal Sector

TINS vs Tin price (LME)

ANTM vs Gold price

CPO Price (1m Futures in Malaysia) vs CPO Sector

GIAA vs Brent Crude Oil

150

175

200

225

250

275

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

Mar-

14

Apr-

14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

(USD/MT)Coal (LHS) COAL Sector (RHS)

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

2,700

2,900

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Sep-14

Oct-

14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

(MYR / Ton)

CPO Malaysia (LHS) CPO Sector (RHS)

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Mar-

14

Apr-

14

May-14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

(USD /MT)(Rp)

INCO (LHS) ANTM (LHS) Nickel LME (RHS)

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

(USD troy oz.)(Rp) ANTM (LHS) Gold (RHS)

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

Mar-14

Apr-

14

May-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Sep-14

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

(USD/MT)(Rp) TINS (LHS) Tin LME (RHS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Sep-14

Oct-

14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

(USD bbl)(Rp)

GIAA (LHS) Crude Oil Brent (RHS)


World Economic Calendar

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

3/18/2015 US MBA Mortgage Applica�ons 13-Mar -- -3.9 -1.3

3/19/2015 US FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) (%) 18-Mar 0.25 0.25 0.25

US Current Account Balance (USD bn) 4Q 104.1 113.5 100.3

US Ini�al Jobless Claims (000's) 14-Mar 293 291 289

US Con�nuing Claims (000's) 7-Mar 2400 2417 2418

US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 15-Mar -- 44.2 43.3

US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Mar 7 5 5.2

US Leading Index Feb 0.2 0.2 0.2

3/23/2015 US Chicago Fed Nat Ac�vity Index Feb 0.1 -0.11 0.13

US Exis�ng Home Sales MoM (mn) Feb 4.9 4.88 4.82

EC Consumer Confidence Mar A -6 -3.7 -6.7

3/24/2015 US CPI MoM (%) Feb 0.2 0.2 -0.7

US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (%) Feb 0.1 0.2 1.6

US CPI YoY (%) Feb -0.1 0 -0.1

US FHFA House Price Index MoM (%) Jan 0.5 0.3 0.8

US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Mar P 54.6 55.3 55.1

US New Home Sales (000's) Feb 464 539 481

US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Mar 3 -8 0

EC Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Mar P 51.5 51.9 51

EC Markit Eurozone Services PMI Mar P 53.9 54.3 53.7

EC Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Mar P 53.6 54.1 53.3

CH HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Mar P 50.5 49.2 50.7

3/25/2015 US MBA Mortgage Applica�ons 20-Mar 0.6 -- --

US Durable Goods Orders Feb 0.6 -- 2.8

US Durables Ex Transporta�on Feb 0.5 -- 0.3

3/26/2015 US Ini�al Jobless Claims (000's) 21-Mar 290 -- 291

US Con�nuing Claims (000's) 14-Mar 2395 -- 2417

US Markit US Composite PMI Mar P -- -- 57.2

US Markit US Services PMI Mar P 57 -- 57.1

US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 22-Mar -- -- 44.2

EC M3 Money Supply YoY (%) Feb 4.3 -- 4.1

EC M3 3-month average (%) Feb 4 -- 3.6

ID Money Supply M2 YoY Feb -- -- 12.5

ID Money Supply M1 YoY Feb -- -- 8.8

3/27/2015 US GDP Annualized QoQ 4Q T 2.4 -- 2.2

US Personal Consump�on 4Q T -- -- 4.2

US GDP Price Index 4Q T 0.1 -- 0.1

US Core PCE QoQ 4Q T -- -- 1.1

US U. of Mich. Sen�ment Mar F 92 -- 91.2

3/30/2015 US Personal Income Feb -- -- 0.3

US Personal Spending Feb -- -- -0.2

US Pending Home Sales MoM Feb -- -- 1.7

US Dallas Fed Manf. Ac�vity Mar -- -- -11.2

EC Consumer Confidence Mar F -- -- --


Result FY14

Date Ticker

Net

profit

(Rpbn) YoY

TRIM

est.

(Rpbn)

Cons.

(Rpbn)

% of

TRIM

% of

Cons.

Rec

Comment

1 17-Mar-15 ACST 105 5% 119 106 88.2% 98.4% In-line Revenus grew by +33% YoY, booked lower gross margin

2 17-Mar-15 WIKA 615 8% 641 621 96.0% 99.1% In-line Revenues grew by +5% YoY, income fr JO grew by +42% YoY, while interest exp grew triple

3 10-Mar-15 SMCB 668 -30% 934 71.6% Below Higher COS and Operating exp due to higher electricity cost and fuel price

4 10-Mar-15 WTON 329 36% 300 307 109.3% 107.0% Above Revenues grow by 24% YoY

5 4-Mar-15 BTPN 1,853 66% 1,701 1,695 91.8% 91.5% Below

The company reported stable

NPL at 0.7% (-10bps q-o-q,

+3bps y-o-y) supported by de-

clining NPL in micro segment.

6 4-Mar-15 MPPA 505 72% 593 582 117.5% 115.3% Above Supported by margin expansion

by 130bps to 3.7%.

7 3-Mar-15 SMGR 5,566 4% 5,541 5,628 100.5% 98.9% In-line

Strong revenue growth at

+10.1% YoY. Gross margins

dropped to 43% (FY13: 44.7%),

while op. margin reached 25.8%

(FY13: 28.5%)

8 3-Mar-15 PTPP 532 26% 534 517 99.7% 103.0% In-line

Revenus grew by +6.6%YoY,

higher gross margin at 12.3%

(FY13: 10.9%)

9 3-Mar-15 TBIG 924 -34% 793 595 85.8% 64.4% In-line

Last year, the company booked

net other income of Rp366 bn

(vs. FY2013 -36bn), including

forex loss of Rp192bn (FY2013 -

799bn)

10 25-Feb-15 AALI 2,490 21% 2,114 2,458 84.9% 98.7% In-line

11 25-Feb-15 ADHI 324 -20% 415 295 78.1% 109.8% Below

Negative revenus growth by -

12% YoY, lower income from JO,

and higher interest exp

12 25-Feb-15 WSKT 502 36% 486 422 103.1% 119.0% In-line Income fr JO grew double to

Rp197bn vs. Rp102bn

13 24-Feb-15 ARNA 259 1% 226 87.3% Below

14 24-Feb-15 ITMG 2,533 -17% 2,718 2,325 93.2% 91.8% Below

15 17-Feb-15 LPPF 1,419 23% 1,419 1,376 100.0% 97.0% In-line

LPPF still booked 10.7% SSSG.

We noted a declining bank loans

by 57% YoY to Rp689bn, result-

ing to a -17% interest expense.

16 12-Feb-15 BMRI 19,872 9% 18,978 19,951 95.5% 100.4% In-line

Supported by 17.3% yoy growth

in net interest income but lower

loan growth than industry.

17 6-Feb-15 JSMR 1,403 5% 1,249 1,263 89.0% 90.0% Below

Negative revenues growth

due to lower revenues from

construction, while revenues

from toll road up by +14.5%

YoY


Result FY14 (Cont’d 1)

Date Ticker

Net

profit

(Rpbn) YoY

TRIM

est.

(Rpbn)

Cons.

(Rpbn)

% of

TRIM

% of

Cons.

Rec

Comment

18 30-Jan-15 BBNI 10,783 19% 10,923 11,430 101.3% 106.0% In-line Backed by 13.5% yoy growth in

non interest income

19 30-Jan-15 BDMN 2,604 -37% 1,474 2,211 56.6% 84.9% Below

There was a Rp306bn restructur-

ing cost and flat net interest

income growth

20 27-Jan-15 BBRI 24,197 14% 24,366 24,487 100.7% 101.2% In-line

Backed by 26.5% yoy growth in

interest income and 12% growth

in fee & other operating income

21 27-Jan-15 SMBR 328 5% 375 408 87.4% 80.4% Below

Flattish revenue growth at 4.0%

YoY, due to stagnant sales vol-

ume. Booked high interest in-

come at Rp151bn.


Corporate Action

Code Price

Exercise Maturity Emiten Description

BEST-W 200 10-Apr-15 Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate WARAN SERI I BEKASI FAJAR INDUSTRIAL ESTATE

INVS-W 165 8-May-15 Inovisi Infracom WARAN SERI I INOVISI INFRACOM

SUGI-W 100 21-May-15 Sugih Energy WARAN SERI II SUGIH ENERGY

MCOR-W 200 10-Jul-15 Bank Windu Kentjana International WARAN SERI I BANK WINDU KENTJANA INTERNATIONAL

GAMA-W 105 16-Jul-15 Gading Development WARAN SERI I GADING DEVELOPMENT

SUPR-W 4800 28-Aug-15 Solusi Tunas Pratama WARAN SERI I SOLUSI TUNAS PRATAMA

NIRO-W 110 11-Sep-15 Nirvana Development WARAN SERI I NIRVANA DEVELOPMENT

BSIM-W 149 11-Dec-15 Bank Sinar Mas WARAN SERI I BANK SINAR MAS

Warrant


Statistics

-0.3

-0.7

-0.7

-0.8

-2.5

-3.0

-3.4

-3.8

-5.1

-11.5

ASII

ICBP

SMGR

BMRI

SCMA

GGRM

PGAS

ISAT

JKON

BRMS24.7

5.2

4.6

3.6

2.2

1.9

1.4

0.8

0.7

0.7

MIKA

AMRT

PNBN

BDMN

TBIG

UNTR

BBNI

BBRI

UNVR

BBCA

1,002

477

276

247

190

181

180

161

134

130

- 500 1,000 1,500

MIKA

ASII

BBRI

TLKM

BBCA

MPPA

BMRI

BBNI

PGAS

SMGR

535

309

263

144

122

106

94

84

81

80

0 200 400 600

SRIL

MTFN

CPRO

TRAM

NIRO

META

ASRI

TLKM

LPKR

TARA

13,670

10,735

5,628

5,100

4,856

4,841

4,469

4,033

3,928

3,883

MIKA

SRIL

SSMS

SMGR

KLBF

PGAS

MNCN

TLKM

BBRI

ASII

JCI Winners (%) JCI Losers (%) JCI Value (Rpbn) JCI Volume (mn Lot) JCI Freq (x)

YTD (Rp) 4.22% 5,612

YTD (USD) 40.03% 8,122

Moving Avg 20day 5,449 5,461

Moving Avg 50day 5,353 14.3

Moving Avg 200day 5,147 2.4%

Indonesia & Sectors +/- (%)YTD (%)

MSCI Indonesia 6,554.7 13.6 0.2 5.7

JII 721.5 0.5 0.1 4.4

LQ45 947.8 0.8 0.1 5.5

JAKFIN Index 811.9 4.6 0.6 11.0

JAKINFR Index 1,109.2 -5.9 -0.5 -4.4

JAKMINE Index 1,307.7 0.3 0.0 -4.5

JAKCONS Index 2,311.8 0.3 0.0 6.1

JAKTRAD Index 980.0 8.5 0.9 11.5

JAKMIND Index 1,393.1 -3.2 -0.2 6.6

JAKBIND Index 481.2 1.0 0.2 -11.5

JAKPROP Index 550.2 -0.1 -0.0 4.8

JAKAGRI Index 2,283.8 -7.3 -0.3 -2.9

Commodities +/- (%)YTD (%)

CRB Index 215.5 -0.2 -0.10 -6.3

Oil & Gas

Brent Crude Oil (USD/bbl) 55.1 -0.8 -1.45 -3.8

Nymex Oil (USD/bbl) 47.5 0.1 0.13 -10.9

Natural Gas 2.8 0.1 1.94 -3.9

COAL (AUS Daily) 55.8 -0.1 -0.18 -10.0

Industrial Metals

Aluminum (USD/tonne) 1,787.8 -6.0 -0.33 -2.5

Nickel (USD/tonne) 13,950 -350 -2.45 -7.9

Tin (USD/tonne) 17,550 -100 -0.57 -9.5

Precious Metal

Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,191.4 3.7 0.31 0.6

Silver (USD/t oz.) 17.0 0.1 0.54 8.9

Soft Commodities

CPO (Malaysia - Rm/tonne) 2,165 -23.0 -1.05 -5.5

Rubber (JPY/kg) 1,796 5.4 0.30 9.4

Corn (USD/bu.) 393 3.0 0.77 -0.9

Wheat (USD/bu.) 524 -10.5 -1.97 -11.3

Soybeans (USD/bu.) 982 -1.8 -0.18 -3.7

Volume (m)

Value (Rpbn)

Mkt Cap (Rptr)

Market 2015 P/E (x)

Market Div. Yield (%)

CPO (Malaysia - Rm/tonne)

Indices Region +/- (%) YT D (%)

MXWO MSCI Word 1,772.4 -5.59 -0.31 3.67

SPX S&P 500 2,091.5 -12.92 -0.61 1.58

US

18,011.1 -104.9 -0.58 1.06

Nasdaq US 4,994.7 -16.25 -0.32 5.46

Europe

EURO 50 Europe 402.5 1.25 0.31 17.52

FTSE London 7,019.7 -17.99 -0.26 6.91

DAX Jerman 12,005.7 109.9 0.92 22.44

CAC France 5,088.3 33.76 0.67 19.09

SMI Swiss 9,292.7 -73.52 -0.78 3.44

BRIC

BOVESPA Brazil 51,506.1 -402 -0.78 3.00

MICEX Russia 1,618.6 15.77 0.98 15.90

SENSEX India 28,161.7 -30.3 -0.11 2.41

NIFTY India 8,543.0 -7.9 -0.09 3.14

SHCOMP China 3,691.4 3.68 0.10 14.12

SZCOMP China 1,922.8 19.20 1.01 35.87

Nikkei Japan 19,713.5 -40.9 -0.21 12.97

TPX Japan 1,587.6 -4.66 -0.29 12.80

HSI Hong kong 24,399.6 -94.9 -0.39 3.37

KOSPI S.Korea 2,041.4 4.78 0.23 6.57

TAIEX Taiwan 9,731.7 -26.4 -0.27 4.56

FSSTI Singapore 3,413.3 3.13 0.09 1.43

ASEAN

SET Thailand 1,514.5 -5.56 -0.37 1.12

PCOMP Philipines 7,828.9 -11.6 -0.15 8.28

KLCI Malaysia 1,814.0 18.19 1.01 2.99

VNINDEX Vietnam 567.4 -3.46 -0.61 4.00

Developed ASIA

Dow Jones Industrial

Kurs Region +/- (%) YT D (%)

USDEUR Euro 0.915 0.002 0.00 14.43

USDGBP UK 0.673 0.005 0.01 12.23

USDCHF Switzerland 0.958 -0.008 -0.01 -4.18

USDCAD Canada 1.249 -0.003 -0.00 4.11

USDAUD Australia 1.269 0.000 0.00 5.78

USDNZD New Zealand 1.307 0.000 0.00 0.52

USDJPY Japan 119.76 0.030 0.00 -0.03

USDCNY China 6.21 (0.01) (0.00) 0.09

USDHKD Hongkong 7.756 0.000 0.00 -0.56

USDSGD Singapore 1.366 0.002 0.00 5.11

Rupiah Indonesia 12,912 #### -0.01 4.23

JCI 5,447.6 10.6 0.2%


Historical Technical Trading Ideas (1)

Ticker Last Trading Ideas 23-Mar-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 5,443 Rebound 5437 -0.11% Incorrect

TLKM 2,920 Buy 2920 0.00% Correct

LSIP 1,835 Buy 1795 -2.18% Incorrect

AALI 25,750 Buy 24800 -3.69% Incorrect

TBIG 9,225 Buy 9225 0.00% Correct

BMRI 12,200 Sell 12175 -0.20% Correct

BJBR 955 Sell 955 0.00% Correct

TAXI 905 Sell 910 0.55% Correct

MPPA 3,875 Buy 4010 3.48% Correct


JCI 5,454 Profit Taking 5443 -0.20% Correct

UNVR 38,300 Buy 38300 0.00% Correct

PTBA 10,450 Buy 10350 -0.96% Incorrect

ITMG 17,025 Buy 17650 3.67% Correct

ELSA 560 Buy 560 0.00% Correct

ASRI 590 Buy 580 -1.69% Incorrect

VIVA 550 Buy 540 -1.82% Incorrect


JCI 5,413 Profit Taking 5454 0.75% Correct

UNTR 21,500 Buy 21475 -0.12% Incorrect

PTBA 10,350 Buy 10450 0.97% Correct

ITMG 16,600 Buy 17025 2.56% Correct

AALI 26,625 Buy 25625 -3.76% Incorrect


TLKM 2,950 Buy 2950 0.00% Correct


JCI 5,439 Profit Taking 5413 -0.48% Correct

UNTR 20,500 Buy 21500 4.88% Correct

INTP 22,475 Buy 22275 -0.89% Incorrect



MPPA 4,430 Sell 4395 -0.79% Correct

INCO 3,345 Sell 3315 -0.90% Correct


JCI 5,435 Cont'd Strenghtening 5,439 0.08% Correct

ASII 7,975 Buy 8,000 0.31% Correct

PGAS 5,225 Buy 5,200 -0.48% Incorrect

TLKM 2,975 Buy 2,955 -0.67% Correct

INTP 22,175 Buy 22,475 1.35% Correct

TAXI 785 Trading Buy 865 10.19% Correct

MPMX 875 Trading Buy 840 -4.00% Incorrect


VIVA 545 Buy 550 0.92% Correct


JCI 5,445 Cont'd Weakening 5,435 0.16% Incorrect

TLKM 2,955 Buy 2,975 0.68% Correct

LSIP 1,840 Buy 1,920 4.35% Correct

INCO 3,295 Buy 3,365 2.12% Correct

MPPA 4,200 Buy 4,435 5.60% Correct

PTPP 3,770 Buy 3,740 -0.80% Incorrect

ICBP 14,625 Sell 15,000 2.56% Incorrect




JCI 5,440 Profit Taking 5,426 -0.25% Correct

ITMG 16,950 Buy 17,300 2.06% Correct

ADRO 970 Buy 970 0.00% Correct



ASRI 560 Buy 565 0.89% Correct

GJTL 1,255 Buy 1,300 3.59% Correct

BCAP 1,770 Sell 1,780 0.56% Incorrect


JCI 5,420 Rebound 5,440 0.37% Correct



BBRI 12,775 Buy 12,900 0.98% Correct

PGAS 5,200 Buy 5,200 0.00% Correct

TRAM 91 Trading Buy 106 16.48% Correct

NIRO 214 Trading Buy 211 -1.40% Incorrect


JCI 5,463 Profit taking 5,420 -0.80% Correct

LSIP 1,875 Buy 1,845 -1.60% Incorrect

AALI 26,075 Buy 26,100 0.10% Correct


CPRO 119 Trading Buy 118 -0.84% Correct

INCO 3,380 Sell 3,335 -1.33% Correct

TINS 1,005 Sell 990 -1.49% Correct



ADRO 990 Buy 985 -0.51% Incorrect

INCO 3,425 Buy 3,380 -1.31% Incorrect


UNTR 20,625 Buy 21,350 3.52% Correct

BCIP 760 Trading Buy 750 -1.32% Incorrect

MYRX 755 Trading Buy 760 0.66% Correct


JCI 5,515 Con't Strenghtening 5,445 -1.28% Incorrect

BBNI 6,675 Buy 6,700 0.37% Correct

BDMN 4,925 Buy 4,805 -2.44% Incorrect



ASII 8,075 Buy 7,950 -1.55% Correct

NIRO 226 Trading Buy 222 -1.77% Incorrect




SCMA 3,660 Buy 3,670 0.27% Correct

NIRO 223 Buy 226 1.35% Correct

ASRI 610 Buy 610 0.00% Correct

PTPP 3,980 Buy 3,960 -0.50% Correct

UNVR 36,250 Sell 37,800 4.28% Incorrect

GGRM 54,275 Sell 54,300 0.05% Correct




JCI 5,448 Con't Weakening 5,451 0.05% Incorrect


SCMA 3,570 Buy 3,660 2.52% Correct

JSMR 7,100 Buy 7,050 -0.70% Incorrect

PTPP 3,950 Buy 3,980 0.76% Correct

NIRO 220 Trading Buy 223 1.36% Correct

LSIP 1,895 Sell 1,910 0.79% Correct

UNTR 21,650 Sell 21,775 0.58% Correct


JCI 5,475 Con't Weakening 5,448 -0.49% Correct

PGAS 5,350 Buy 5,250 -1.87% Inorrect

SCMA 3,575 Buy 3,570 -0.14% Correct

NIRO 222 Buy 220 -0.90% Correct

MPPA 4,440 Buy 4,225 -4.84% Inorrect

LSIP 1,920 Sell 1,895 -1.30% Correct

ADHI 3,360 Sell 3,305 -1.64% Correct

AALI 25,625 Sell 25,975 1.37% Inorrect


JCI 5,450 Con't Strenghtening 5,475 -0.06% Incorrect


AALI 25,550 Buy 25,625 0.29% Correct

TLKM 2,950 Buy 2,945 -0.17% Correct

HRUM 1,590 Buy 1,620 1.89% Correct


ICBP 14,325 Buy 14,725 2.79% Correct


JCI 5,450 Con't Weakening 5,478 0.51% Incorrect



LPKR 1,180 Buy 1,175 -0.42% Incorrect

HRUM 1,655 Buy 1,590 -3.93% Incorrect

ITMG 16,900 Buy 17,525 3.70% Correct



Ticker Last Trading Ideas 27-Feb-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 5,451 Profit Taking 5,450 -0.01% Incorrect


HRUM 1,600 Buy 1,655 3.44% Incorrect


JSMR 7,075 Buy 7,100 0.35% Correct

BKSL 146 Buy 145 -0.68% Correct

BBRI 12,950 Sell 12,875 -0.58% Correct

BBNI 6,925 Sell 6,875 -0.72% Correct


JCI 5,445 Profit Taking 5,451 0.12% Incorrect


INTP 24,125 Buy 24,050 -0.31% Incorrect


SSIA 1,325 Buy 1,330 0.38% Correct


WIKA 3,650 Sell 3,675 0.68% Incorrect




PTPP 4,055 Buy 4,030 -0.62% Incorrect

SMGR 14,925 Buy 15,150 1.51% Correct


BBRI 12,800 Buy 12,925 0.98% Correct

WIKA 3,650 Sell 3,670 0.55% Incorrect





LSIP 1,825 Buy 1,805 -1.10% Incorrect

BWPT 363 Buy 361 -0.55% Incorrect

TLKM 2,910 Buy 2,905 -0.17% Incorrect

PTPP 4,055 Buy 4,055 0.00% Correct

WSKT 1,820 Sell 1,810 -0.55% Correct

ASRI 685 Sell 675 -1.46% Correct


JCI 5,400 Cont Strenghtening 5,403 0.06% Correct

BMRI 12,075 Buy 11,875 -1.66% Incorrect

BBTN 1,055 Buy 1,045 -0.95% Incorrect

GJTL 1,360 Buy 1,310 -3.68% Incorrect

AKRA 4,870 Buy 4,810 -1.23% Incorrect

ITMG 18,200 Sell 17,750 -2.47% Correct

KLBF 1,790 Sell 1,795 0.28% Correct



BWPT 366 Buy 364 -0.55% Incorrect

GGRM 55,175 Buy 55,000 -0.32% Incorrect

GJTL 1,340 Buy 1,360 1.49% Correct

ADHI 3,410 Buy 3,490 2.35% Correct

BBRI 12,475 Buy 12,725 2.00% Correct

BJBR 910 Sell 945 3.85% Incorrect



BWPT 363 Buy 366 0.83% Correct

SMGR 14,500 Buy 14,775 1.90% Correct

TBIG 8,750 Buy 8,500 -2.86% Incorrect

GGRM 54,950 Buy 55,175 0.41% Correct


MPPA 4,300 Sell 4,420 2.79% Incorrect


JCI 5,325 Cont Weakening 5,338 0.23% Incorrect

BWPT 363 Buy 363 0.00% Correct

SMGR 14,500 Buy 14,675 1.21% Correct

BBRI 12,025 Buy 12,000 -0.21% Incorrect

LEAD 1,985 Buy 1,950 -1.76% Incorrect

ACES 770 Buy 765 -0.65% Incorrect

MPPA 4,200 Sell 4,300 2.38% Correct


JCI 5,374 Cont Strenghtening 5,325 -0.90% Incorrect

TINS 1,070 Buy 1,075 0.47% Correct

UNTR 18,950 Buy 18,750 -1.06% Incorrect

LPKR 1,115 Buy 1,115 0.00% Correct



KLBF 1,870 Buy 1,800 -3.74% Incorrect



TINS 1,080 Buy 1,070 -0.93% Inorrect

GGRM 54,950 Buy 55,400 0.82% Correct

LPKR 1,105 Buy 1,115 0.90% Correct

BBNI 6,725 Buy 6,675 -0.74% Incorrect

CPRO 116 Trading Buy 114 -1.72% Incorrect

BKSL 126 Trading Buy 124 -1.59% Correct


Research Team

Sebastian Tobing, CFA

Head of Research & Institutional Business

([email protected])

Maria Renata

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Gina Novrina Nasution, CSA

Technical Analyst

([email protected])

Paula Ruth

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Angga Aditya Assaf

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Willinoy Sitorus

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

M. Dian Octiana

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Dini Agmivia Anggraeni

Fixed Income/Macro Analyst

([email protected])

Yeni Simanjuntak

On-the-ground Analyst

([email protected])

Rovandi

Research Associate

([email protected])

Institutional Sales Team

Daniel Dwi Seputro

Head of Institutional Equity Sales

([email protected])

Dewi Yusnita

Equity Institutional Sales

([email protected])

Meitawati


([email protected])

Fachruly Fiater


([email protected])

Henry Sidarta


([email protected])

Raditya Andyono


([email protected])

Nancy Pardede


([email protected])

Retail Sales Team

JAKARTA AREA

Nathanael Benny Prasetyo

Head of Retail ECM

([email protected])

Ariawan Anwar

Artha Graha, Jakarta

([email protected])

Windra Djulnaily

Pluit, Jakarta

([email protected])

Ferry Zabur

Kelapa Gading, Jakarta

([email protected])

Eddy Sumarli

Puri Kencana, Jakarta

([email protected])

Very Wijaya

BSD, Tangerang

([email protected])

SUMATERA

Juliana Effendy

Medan, Sumatera Utara

([email protected])

Tantie Rivi Watie

Pekanbaru, Riau

([email protected])

Nathanael Benny Prasetyo

Palembang, Sumatera Selatan

([email protected])

EAST INDONESIA

Wiranto Sunyoto

Branch Area Manager

([email protected])

Sonny Muljadi

Surabaya, Jawa Timur

([email protected]

Ni Made Dwi Hapsari Wijayanti

Denpasar, Bali

([email protected])

Ivan Jaka Perdana

Malang, Jawa Timur

([email protected])

Arifin Pribadi

Makasar, Sulawesi Selatan

([email protected])

CENTRAL JAVA, AREA

Agus Bambang Suseno

Solo, Jawa Tengah

([email protected])

Mariana Kusuma Wati

Semarang, Jawa Tengah

[email protected])

WEST JAVA

Asep Saepudin

Bandung, Jawa Barat

([email protected])

Ariffianto

Cirebon, Jawa Barat

([email protected])

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk

Gedung Artha Graha 18th Floor

Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52-53

Jakarta 12190, Indonesia

t. +62-21 2924 9088

f. +62-21 2924 9150

www.trimegah.com

DISCLAIMER

This report has been prepared by PT Trimegah Securities Tbk on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies and is provided for information

purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has

been produced independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of Trimegah Securities.

While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication,

Trimegah Securities makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is

provided solely for the information of clients of Trimegah Securities who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance

on this report. Neither Trimegah Securities nor any officer or employee of Trimegah Securities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or

consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Trimegah Securities and/or persons connected with it may have acted

upon or used the information herein contained, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before publication. Trimegah Securities may in

future participate in an offering of the company’s equity securities.

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