Trends in Mid-Latitude Cyclone Frequency And Their Effect On Air Quality
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Transcript of Trends in Mid-Latitude Cyclone Frequency And Their Effect On Air Quality
Trends in Mid-Latitude Cyclone Frequency And Their Effect On Air Quality
Eric M. Leibensperger, Loretta J. Mickley, and Daniel J. JacobSchool of Engineering and Applied Sciences - Harvard University
GCAP Meeting – October 12, 2007
1999-2001 2049-2051
A Decrease in Mid-Latitude Cyclones: 2000-2050
1999-2001 vs. 2049-2051: 17% decrease
1999-2005 vs. 2049-2055: 16% decrease
[Wu et al., in press]
Past and Future Trends of Mid-Latitude Cyclones
[Lambert, et al., 2006]
Previous studies have found a decrease in the frequency of observed cyclones and cyclones objectively tracked from reanalysis data.
Additional studies have identified a decrease in cyclones in future climate simulations.
[McCabe, et al., 2001]
Mid-latitudes
High-latitudes
Storm Tracking
[Zishka and Smith, 1981]
720 km
990 mb
1000 mb
4x daily SLP fields (NCEP/NCAR or ECMWF Reanalysis, GISS GCM 3 4x5 and 2x2.5) used with the GISS Storm Tracker [Bauer and Del Genio, 2007]
1950-2005 Summer Cyclone Frequencies
NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis
GISS GCM 3– 2x2.5 – Specified SST
(data courtesy of Jean Lerner)
GISS GCM 3– 4x5 – Q-Flux Ocean
[Leibensperger et al., in prep.]
1980-2005 trend is comparable between GISS GCM 4x5 and Reanalysis
Relationship between Ozone and Mid-latitude Cyclones – 1980-1998
[Leibensperger et al., in prep.]
Correlation coefficient between # of cyclones and # of O3 exceedances
The frequency of cyclones tracking through the southern track is strongly anti-correlated with the number of ozone exceedances
Cyclone Frequency and Ozone in the Northeast
[Leibensperger et al., in prep.]
r=-0.29
r=-0.64Removing linear trends in cyclone frequency and exceedances enhances the anti-correlation
The Air Quality Penalty Due to Decreasing Cyclone Frequency
cyclonesemissions dtsexceedanced
dtsexceedanced
dtsexceedanced
)()()(
19 – 5 = 14 days
84.1)(
05.1)(
79.0)19.0)(15.4()()()()(
emissions
cyclones
dtsexceedanced
dtexeedancesd
dtcyclonesd
cyclonesdsexceedanced
dtsexceedanced days yr-1
days yr-1
days yr-1
[Leibensperger et al., in prep.]
Without the decrease in the number of cyclones, the number of exceedances would have been lowered to 5 rather than 19 days.
Future decreases in cyclone frequency will make air quality goals more difficult to achieve.
Future Work
CPD of CO tracer at the surface during low cyclone years versus high cyclone years is similar to Loretta’s findings for 2050
[Mickley et al., 2004]
COt = Carbon Monoxide Tracer
• Extend analysis from 1998 to 2006, publish results
• Use tracer within GCM to diagnose changes in transport
• Effects of climate change on air pollution meteorology
- Transport (cyclones, convection)
- Lightning
EXTRA SLIDES
Midwest at surface
Northeast at surface Southeast at surface
Midwest at 400hPa
Northeast at 400hPa Southeast at 400hPa
Less tracer makes it this high
Less outflow from N.A. – but more to the north, could be from increased frequency there
Most tracer sourced where lower track most effective – net effect is less in upper trop.
Time Series of Cyclones – NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1
Tropical Storm Brenda Hurricane Cleo
Time Series of Cyclones – GISS GCM 4x5
Time Series of Cyclones – GISS GCM 2x2.5
1. Can the GCM and reanalysis data reproduce expected cyclone statistics?
GISS 4x5 and NCEP main storm tracks are comparable to the observed main track frequencies in position. NCEP storm tracks well represented quantitatively, but GISS 4x5 is too low.
[Whittaker and Horn, 1984]
204060
(cyclones/20 years)
Cyclones in the GISS GCM III at 2ºx2.5º
The frequency of cyclones in the GISS GCM 2x2.5 is improved, but the tracks appear shifted to the southeast.
[Whittaker and Horn, 1984]
204060
(cyclones/20 years)
Main Summer Storm Tracks in the Models
Why mid-latitude cyclones?
In the northeastern United States, many variables affecting ozone production (temperature, cloud cover, stagnation) and transport change on a synoptic timescale thus making mid-latitude cyclones a major driver of surface ozone concentrations
Cold Warm
Lighter winds
Mean 4-10 Day Integrated Power of FFT of Max 8-hr Avg Time Series