Trends in Higher Education in Canada

University of Victoria

January 18, 2018

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Major trends shaping Canadian HE

1. Demographic shifts

2. The new generation of students and their choice factors

3. Movement toward applied fields and WIL

4. Rise of teaching universities in BC

5. International student trends

6. Indigenization

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An aging Canadian population

Statistics Canada—Catalogue no. 91-520-X - 13 -

Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038)

Figure 2.5Distribution of the total population by age group, observed (1921 to 2013) and projected (2014 to 2063) accordingto the low-growth (L), medium-growth (M1) and high-growth (H) scenarios, Canada

Source: Statistics Canada, Demography Division.

Figure 2.6Median age, observed (1921 to 2013) and projected (2014 to 2063) according to the low-growth (L), medium-growth (M1)and high-growth (H) scenarios, Canada

Source: Statistics Canada, Demography Division.

Notably, in all projection scenarios, total demographic dependency in 2063 would not drastically exceed that experiencedearly in the 20th century (Table 2.4). However, the composition of the ratio would have changed markedly: in 1921,seniors accounted for just over 12% of the non-working age population, compared to between 57.7% (scenario H)and 66.6% (scenario L) in 2063.

According to the medium-growth scenario (M1), in 2060, both Canada’s senior demographic dependency ratioand its median age (Table 2.5) would fall below the average projected for other developed countries according to the UnitedNations’ World Population Prospects, but still higher than what would be observed, for example, in the UnitedStates, Sweden and the Russian Federation.

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Variations by Province

1. The far eastern provinces (PEI, N-L, NS) are flat or shrinking, following stagnant population sizes or decreases:

– They will also age rapidly, reflecting a smaller young population.

2. Quebec and Ontario continue to grow and dominate Canadian population clusters:

– However, the population ages there, too, and over a quarter of all people are projected to be over age 65 by 2038.

3. Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta are expected to grow significantly and stand out as the provinces that will be younger than others in the country:

– This will be an opportunity for recruitment for all universities that attract a national audience.

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Variations by Province1. British Columbia will continue its growth over the next 25 years,

according to projections

2. Like the eastern provinces, the population will age rapidly and the percentage of persons over age 65 is expected to reach about 25% by 2038.

Statistics Canada—Catalogue no. 91-520-X - 42 -

Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038)

British Columbia

• British Columbia’s population would continue to grow substantially over the next 25 years accordingto all scenarios. Its population is projected to reach between 5,180,200 (scenario L) and 6,662,100 (scenario H)by 2038, compared to 4,582,000 in 2013.

• The projected annual growth rate of British Columbia is above the national average in all scenarios exceptM3, in which the province is projected to experience net interprovincial migration losses. The province’sdemographic weight within the country would be between 12.1% (scenario M3) and 14.2% (scenario M2)by 2038, compared to 13.0% in 2013.

• In all scenarios except one (scenario L), the main factor of population growth in British Columbia is internationalmigratory increase. In the low-growth scenario, lower levels of immigration result in interprovincial migrationeventually becoming the main factor in population growth.

• From 41.7 years in 2013, the median age of the population of British Columbia would be between 43.4 years(scenario H) and 46.7 years (scenario L) in 2038. The proportion of the population aged 65 and over is projectedto reach between 23.9% (scenario H) and 27.0% (scenario L). These two indicators remain above the Canadianaverage in all scenarios.

Figure 3.19Population, observed (1989 to 2013) and projected (2014 to 2038) according to selected scenarios, British Columbia

Source: Statistics Canada, Demography Division.

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Variations by Province – Aboriginal population1/15/2018 Table 9 Aboriginal identity population and proportion that it represents in the total population by province and territory of residence, Canada, 2011 (observed) a…

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-552-x/2015001/t/tbl09-eng.htm 1/1

Home  s Publications  s 91­552­X  s Main page  s Analysis of results – Population

Table 9 Aboriginal identity population and proportion that it represents inthe total population by province and territory of residence,Canada, 2011 (observed) and 2036 (according to four projectionscenarios)Province andterritory ofresidence

2011 (observedpopulation andproportion)

2036 (projected population and proportion)Reference Moderate

convergence offertility

Constant fertility No ethnicmobility

No internalmigration

thousands percent thousands percent thousands percent thousands percent thousands percent thousands percentCanada 1,502 4.4 2,510 5.8 2,569 6.0 2,633 6.1 1,965 4.6 2,510 5.8Newfoundland andLabrador

37 7.1 43 9.8 43 9.9 44 9.9 34 7.8 54 10.2

Prince EdwardIsland

2 1.6 6 4.0 6 4.1 6 4.1 3 1.9 6 3.9

Nova Scotia 35 3.7 57 6.2 58 6.3 58 6.3 39 4.2 64 6.5New Brunswick 23 3.0 40 5.8 41 5.9 42 6.0 26 3.7 46 6.0Quebec 162 2.0 275 2.9 280 3.0 286 3.1 195 2.1 276 2.8Ontario 334 2.5 605 3.5 611 3.6 616 3.6 416 2.4 606 3.6Manitoba 205 16.7 311 20.1 322 20.7 335 21.3 273 17.6 325 18.8Saskatchewan 166 15.6 251 20.4 269 21.5 289 22.7 241 19.5 258 18.5Alberta 236 6.3 430 7.6 438 7.8 447 7.9 346 6.1 393 7.4British Columbia 241 5.4 416 7.2 422 7.3 428 7.4 316 5.5 403 7.4Yukon 8 23.3 10 24.0 10 24.3 10 24.6 9 23.5 10 21.7NorthwestTerritories

23 51.9 27 54.7 28 55.6 29 56.2 27 54.1 29 51.0

Nunavut 29 86.1 39 88.8 41 89.4 44 89.9 39 88.6 41 88.5Source: Statistics Canada, Demography Division.

Date modified:2015­11­30

High-growth

Provinces

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Population trends in British Columbia

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Some important notes about Canadian demography

1. The northernmost territories continue to have a very small population and even high growth rates leave them with populations smaller than many midsize Canadian cities

2. Much of the projection of growth is fueled by international migration into the provinces:

– This could change for any number of reasons and growth, as a result, could be negative in several provinces.

3. BC has a highly differentiated post-secondary system, new residents may not understand the variations between institutions. If international in-migration continues, Universities will need to adjust efforts to attract these new students.

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The next generation of university students

1. Post-Millennials, Gen Z, iGen, Centennials– Born between 1996 and 2000– Now entering universities

2. ”Cloud innate”– Storage is not needed– Everything is streaming or online

3. Favorite “channel” is YouTube

4. Hyper-aware of security and safety issues:– There has always been terrorism and we have been at war with

terrorism since they were toddlers or pre-school age

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Important aspects of GenZ and enrolment (Usher, 2017)

1. Parental influence in decision-making is minimal, especially compared to Millennials

– College choice may be generally guided by parents but is otherwise the student’s choice

2. Willing to invest only if the returns appear to be extraordinary– Otherwise, “good enough” is OK and local options for HE would be

fine

3. Most HE marketing turns them off:– Quality is not what they expect and they are negatively impressed by

the institution, as a result– Recruitment presentations are perceived a saccharine or generic and

therefore of little worth

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Applied Learning

1. Growth in popularity of STEM fields

2. Shifting away from fields in social sciences, liberal arts and fine/performing arts

3. For men, shifts away from math and biology

4. For women, gains in biology and neutral in math

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Recessional impacts on choice of major

Bloom, E., Cadena, B.C., Keys, B.J. (2015): Investment over the Business Cycle: Insights from College Major Choice. IZA Discussion Paper No. 9167. Bonn.

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Work Integrated Learning (WIL)

1. Goal:

– 100% of Canadian post-secondary students will have access to applied learning as part of the degree programs

• Sado, Jenkins, Cannon – July, 2016 in iPolitics

– Four initial steps:

• Establish a common definition of WIL

• Find out what is working and where gaps exist

• Bring everyone on-board

• Remember why this is important (making Canadians globally competitive)

2. Also a prevalent movement in Australia

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New Universities in BC1. 1989: UBC-O, Okanagan College partnerships and continued

expansion of Okanagan through 2005

2. Five colleges were granted university status in 2008:– Fraser Valley– Kwantlen– Vancouver Island– Emily Carr Art + Design– Capilano

3. While none of these alone may significantly dent UVic’s overall enrolment, they may:

– Chip away at key revenue-paying students– Erode some of the quality within specific programs where they are

somewhat competitive

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International student trends

1. Up 10.7% across Canada from 2016 to 2017

2. More than a “Trump Bump”:– Follows a pattern of growth: 7% annually in 2015 and 2016– Driven by policy decisions that make Canada easier to come to and

easier to stay, live and work in after degree completion

3. Uneven results across the provinces:– BC had the biggest increase at 15.2%– Newfoundland decreased by 5.7%– Saskatchewan grew just 2%– PEI and ON grew by 13%, each

Shen, A. International student enrolment rises by 11 percent at Canada’s universities. University Affairs, November 24, 2017. Accessed at universityaffairs.ca on 11/29/17.

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Indigenous representation in HE

1. Growth in programs and activity directed at making universities more “welcoming to and representative of Canada’s Indigenous peoples.”

– Academica, January 2017

2. 2015 recommendations of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (just some of those most evidently related to HE):

– Close educational achievement gaps– Fund post-secondary grants (PSSSE)– Preserve Aboriginal languages, including degree programs in them– Close health gaps; improve health care for Aboriginal peoples:

• Increase the number of Aboriginal health care professionals

– Data collection and study of Aboriginal social issues; related increases in treatment and improvement of social conditions

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Indigenous representation at UVic

1. UVic has an “Indigenous Plan 2017-2022”

2. Five Cedar Strands:– Students– Faculty and Staff– Education– Research– Governance

3. Student enrollment has grown from just over 500 to over 1200 since 2002.