21st Century Tech Plan - Planning for 21st Century Technologies
travel in the 21st century
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dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de
travel in the 21st centurytravel in the 21st century
• 2 Mio. flights / week2 Mio. flights / week
• 500 largest airports500 largest airports
• 95% of the entire 95% of the entire aviation networkaviation network
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dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de
the „severe acute respiratory syndrome” (SARS)
the „severe acute respiratory syndrome” (SARS)
Hong Hong KongKongHong Hong KongKong
GuangdongGuangdongGuangdongGuangdong
IrlandIrlandIrlandIrland
VietnamVietnamVietnamVietnamSingapurSingapurSingapurSingapur
KanadaKanadaKanadaKanada
USAUSAUSAUSA
DeutschlandDeutschlandDeutschlandDeutschland ThailanThailandd
ThailanThailandd
• caused by coronaviruscaused by coronavirus
• first outbreak: Chinafirst outbreak: China
• February 2003 in Hong KongFebruary 2003 in Hong Kong
• worldwide spread in over 30 worldwide spread in over 30 countriescountries
• approx 8000 infectionsapprox 8000 infections
• 10% die10% die
dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de
a model for the global spread of SARSa model for the global spread of SARS
• Is it possible to Is it possible to describedescribe the spread of the spread of human infectious human infectious diseases based on the diseases based on the aviation network?aviation network?
• How How reliablereliable are are predictions?predictions?
• What properties of the What properties of the aviation network aviation network facilitatefacilitate the spread? the spread?
• What properties of the What properties of the aviation network aviation network facilitate facilitate predictabilitypredictability??
Hufnagel, L., Brockmann, D., Geisel, T., Hufnagel, L., Brockmann, D., Geisel, T., PNASPNAS, , 101101, 15124-15129, 2004, 15124-15129, 2004 Hufnagel, L., Brockmann, D., Geisel, T., Hufnagel, L., Brockmann, D., Geisel, T., PNASPNAS, , 101101, 15124-15129, 2004, 15124-15129, 2004
dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de
international aviation networkinternational aviation network