TRANSPORT AND ENVIRONMENT SIMULATION FOR …

TRANSPORT AND ENVIRONMENT SIMULATION

FOR BANGALORE, PUNE AND HYDERABAD

S. Rama Krishna, Member of Faculty,

Central Institute of Road Transport (CIRT), Pune, India

Phone: 91-20-7125177,7125292,7125493,7125494 Fax: 91-20-7125426

E- Mail: [email protected]

And

C. Ravi Kumar Reddy Member of Faculty,

Central Institute of Road Transport (CIRT), Pune, India

Phone: 91-20-7125177,7125292,7125493,7125494 Fax: 91-20-7125426

E- Mail: [email protected]

Ramakrishna. S and Ravi Kumar Reddy. C

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TRANSPORT AND ENVIRONMENT SIMULATION

FOR BANGALORE, PUNE AND HYDERABAD

ABSTRACT Due to liberalisation of the economy and rapid urbanisation, the vehicle population in

Indian cities is growing rapidly. In India, over the past 50 years, approximately 37.2 million vehicles have been registered and this number may shoot up further in the future. The increase in the growth of vehicles results in an increase in the demand for the energy. The transport sector in India is a major energy-consuming sector. The demand for fuel is likely to increase exponentially over the next few years. The key challenge facing India today, is bottlenecks in energy supply which may prove a constraint for economic growth. Ensuring an adequate supply of fuel to the transport sector should be an immediate concern considering that the transport sector has direct implications for the economy. Another related problem facing the society today is environmental pollution. The increase in number of vehicles would definitely worsen the air quality in the future. This would result in health problems as well as decrease in visibility during peak hours in Indian metros giving rise to road safety concerns. It makes sense to find environmentally friendly forms of energy to improve the quality of urban life. To preserve the health of the society at large, some major policy decisions need to be implemented in order to control the environmental pollution.

This paper attempts to analyse, through a simulation model, the time series data of various modes of transport, their growth, emission levels and fuel consumption per kilometer for three Indian metropolitan cities: Pune, Bangalore and Hyderabad. This would be useful for the policy makers to formulate a socially optimal transport and environmental policy.


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1.0 INTRODUCTION Transport is a critical infrastructure for economic and social development. It provides access to markets and materials, influences population distribution and shapes the pace and quality of human life. It involves massive investments, consumes scarce natural resources and has significant environmental implications. The transport demand has been growing over years as well as per capita transport intensity, though it is still well behind the developed countries. 1.1 Road Transport Scenario In India:

The vehicle population in India has increased tremendously during the past decade. The trends in vehicle population growth of different types in India are shown in Table 1. Table 1 here

It can be analysed from Table1 that the growth in vehicle population has shown a steep rise from 1986 to 1996 with a threefold increase in all vehicles. The highest growth is observed (approximately four times) in the two-wheeler category.

The total number of registered motor vehicles in the country shows a steep rise, especially during the last decade. The number has risen from 213.74 lakh in 1991-92 to 372.31 lakh in 1996-97, recording a huge growth of 74.19. As per estimates of Rail India Technical and Economic Services (RITES), the likely number of vehicles by the year 2010 could reach 1475.01 lakh (2). It is very interesting to note that much of the growth will be in the personalised modes like two-wheelers, cars and jeeps.

The rapid growth in road transport vehicles has lead to an increase in demand for energy. Consequently, pollution levels have risen drastically, resulting in high social costs in the form of health disorders or reduced quality of life. This unbridled demand for energy if unchecked would exhaust all the energy resources leading to utter chaos. In order to bring out the gravity of the situation, it is necessary to quantify not only the demand for energy but also the pollution costs.

This paper attempts to forecast the vehicular growth based on the time series data and estimate the demand for energy and the ensuing pollution levels for the three cities, Pune, Bangalore and Hyderabad. The Vehicle Air Pollution Information System (VAPIS) model originally developed by the World Bank and redesigned by Harvard University has been used to analyse vehicular emissions and fuel demand for the cities under consideration. Finally, the policy recommendations to reduce the energy demand and air pollution are explained in the last section. 2 ENERGY DEMAND IN INDIA

The transport sector consumes 23% of commercial energy in the country (3). The consumption in 94-95 was 65.49 million tonnes (mt) and the demand is expected to go up to 113 million tonnes by 2001-02 and 120 million tonnes by 2005. While indigenous crude production had reached an all-time high of 34.09 million tonnes in 1989-90, it declined to 32.24 million tonnes in 1994-95. Domestic production would meet 44% of the demand at the end of the 9th plan, 33% at the end of the 10th plan and only 27% by the year 2010-11. The transport sector accounts for about 75% of the diesel fuel consumed in India. Imports of crude have risen from 14.6 mt in 1985 to 27 mt in 1994-95 (30.8 mt in 1993-94) and imports of petroleum product have gone from 1.9 mt to 14 mt in the same period (2). In India, the petroleum consumption is increasing at a very steep rate from 3.5 Million Metric Tons (MMT) in 1950-51 to 74.7 MMT in 1995-96. The situation in India is bleaker, and


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the present known stocks may not even last for 10 years at the current rate of consumption. In India, the indigenous production is only 36.31 MMT and is less than 50 per cent of the annual requirement.

Table 2 here

India’s demand for petroleum products has been rising at a rapid rate. This can be seen from Table 2. It shows that the dependability on coal which was about 47 per cent in the year 1960-61 has been reduced to 0.3 per cent in the year 1994-95. The dependability on oil as a fuel increased from 51 per cent in 1960-61 to 97.3 per cent in 1994-95. This increase is due to the growth in large vehicular population during the above period.

The demand on petroleum products increased by two and half times from 30 million tonnes in 1980-81 to almost 75 million tonnes in 1995-96. In India, the average per capita consumption of petroleum products is only 90 kg, which is 10 times less than the world average. Current estimates indicate that consumption in India would reach a level of arround 155 MMT by 2006-07 A.D. 2.1 Energy Demand in Urban Transport

The urban transport (UT) sector is a major consumer of energy accounting for about 20% of the total energy consumed in the transport sector (2). The energy consumption in the UT sector depends to a large extent on the modal split as well as traffic characteristics viz., mixing of slow and fast traffic, congestion levels, average cruising speeds, frequencies of stopping and starting of vehicles, road surface and profile, driving habits etc. 3 AUTOMOBILE POLLUTION IN INDIA

Air pollution generally means unacceptable levels of pollutants emitted from vehicles such as Carbon Monoxide (CO), Hydro Carbons (HC), Nitrogen oxides (NOx), Suplur Dioxide (SO2) and particulates present in the air.

Pollution in Indian cities is getting deadlier. Nearly 51,800 people were estimated to have died in 1995 because of lung and cardiovascular diseases linked to pollution in 36 Indian cities. (Study conducted by the Center for Science and Environment, New Delhi).

This phenomenal increase in actual and projected traffic and the concomitant growth in the number of vehicles have not only led to congested roads and higher accidents in urban areas but also exposed the environment and the society to the baneful effects of vehicular pollution. Two-wheelers and cars are said to be the principal contributors to vehicular pollution, accounting for nearly 90% of total emission loads. Table -3 provides the percentage contribution to automobile pollution by different vehicle categories. Table 3 here

At present, pollution caused by vehicle emissions account for a plethora of diseases in

human beings and is now considered as one of the most potent threats to human health. Air quality in urban areas in particular has reached a new low due to proliferation of all types of vehicles in towns and cities. In urban areas, the effect of automotive pollutants on ambient air quality tends to be more pronounced than their emission shares on a regional or global basis. As motor vehicles emit contaminants in close proximity to the breathing zone of people, they not only pose a greater health risk but are frequently a source of public annoyance.

Environmentalists commonly agree that in spite of so many rules framed by the Central Government of India as well as the State Governments to control emissions, the current level of automobile pollution in the mega cities of India is much beyond tolerable limits. Table 4 gives the daily emission levels for a few metropolitan cities of India during 1994.


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Table 4 here

It can be clearly seen that the daily emissions of automobile pollutants like SPM, SO2

NOx, HC and CO in the major cities are extremely high, to say the least. The situation is particularly alarming in the capital city, Delhi with a staggering 1046.30 tons of daily pollutant load, making it one of the most polluted cities in the world.

The above figures confirm the extent of toxicity prevailing in the atmosphere of these cities. Of course such a pollution level is a natural outcome of the massive growth in the number of vehicles in the city over the last few years.

Hence there is a need to estimate and forecast the energy demand and emission levels based on the past data available. It is in this context that an attempt has been made to study the vehicular growth, the energy demand and emission levels of three Indian cities ie., Pune, Bangalore and Hyderabad. 4. DATA COLLECTION AND METHODOLOGY

The data on registered Motor vehicles for Pune, Bangalore and Hyderabad has been collected from the respective Road Transport Authorities from 1971 to 1999. The VAPIS model originally developed by the World Bank and redesigned by Harvard University is used to analyse vehicular emissions and estimate fuel demand for the cities of Pune, Bangalore and Hyderabad based on time series data. This mode l is developed in MS Excel. The output generated from this model is 1. Future Vehicle population – Mode-wise 2. Energy demand – Mode-wise 3. Graphical representation of Mode split, Age wise distribution of vehicles, Growth rates of

various modes 4. Emission levels in both actual values and graphical representation. The analysis is presented in the subsequent paragraphs.

5.0 DATA ANALYSIS: PUNE As per the 1991 census, Pune city had a population of 2.48 million (7) with a decadal

growth rate of 46.7%. In 2001, the population has increased to 3.73 million (8), which shows a decadal growth rate of 50.6%.

The Mode Split analysis of Pune reveals that more than 93% of all vehicles are personalised modes, out of which 83 % are two-wheelers and 10.6% are cars. The Intermediate Public Transport (IPT) namely auto rickshaws, accounts for 4.6%. The Taxis constitute only 0.2% and the role played by this mode within the urban limits is insignificant. The inadequacy of public transport can be seen by the fact that its share in passenger transport is only1.6%. The mode-wise vehicle population in Pune in the year 2001 is shown in Fig.1.

Figure 1 here

Vehicular Growth A time series analysis of two-wheelers shows a significant growth rate of more than 20%

in 1985 and 1986 which was reduced to 16% in 1990. During the period 1991 to 1995, the average growth rate was around 6% and significantly shot up to 16.5% in 1996. This high increase in the growth of two-wheelers indicates the lack or inefficiency of the public transport system. The analysis of auto rickshaws shows that initially there was a growth rate of 11% up to the 1980s, which then stabilised around 9% between 1980 and 1987. From 1991 onwards the increase in growth rate was significant at 15%. The taxi has played a less important role in the


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transport system of Pune city. The public transport in Pune experienced a growth of 4.3% in 1972 and from then onwards, there was a small and unsteady growth. This growth varied between 1.3% and 18.7% from 1972 to 1996. The goods vehicles have shown a steady growth of around 5% from 1985 onwards. Historical growth of various modes is presented in Fig. 2 Figure 2 here

Estimated Energy Demand At present, auto rickshaws are the top consumers of fuel amounting to 63.2 million

litres/year followed by two- wheelers with 58.8 million litres/year. Energy demand analysis of all vehicles in Pune city is presented in Table 5. Table 5 Here

The petrol consumption will increase 2.9 times by the year 2010, whereas the diesel requirement will increase by 1.8 times. If the same trend continues, the petrol consumption will be 9.3 times the present level by 2020. This increase in demand of petrol can be attributed to the high rate of growth of petrol driven personalised modes. Estimated Vehicular Emissions

Projected emission levels in Pune for the years 2001, 2010, 2020 and 2025 are presented in Table 6. The highest CO emissions came from two-wheelers, amounting to 36.1 tonnes/day, followed by auto rickshaws and cars. NOx emission analysis shows that the buses are more dominant with 9.72 tonnes/day than trucks with 9.5 tonnes/day. Emissions of hydrocarbons by two-wheelers and auto rickshaws are higher. The current levels (2001) are 19.2 and 18.4 tonnes/day respectively. Mode-wise emissions are shown in Fig. 3

Table 6 here Figure 3 here

It is clearly seen from Table 7 that auto rickshaws, which have a share of 10.3% in passenger kms, are emitting 37 % of total emissions. On the contrary, buses which have a 67% share in passenger kms, are emitting 2.8 % of total emissions. Hence there is a need to promote the Public Transport System.

Table 7 here

6.0 DATA ANALYSIS: BANGALORE In 1991 the population of Bangalore city was 4.09 million and during 1981-91, the

decadal growth in population was 40%. At present the city has a population of 6.0 million (unpublished) with a decadal growth rate of 46%.

The modal split analysis of Bangalore city in the year 2001 clearly indicates the dominance of two-wheelers followed by cars and auto rickshaws (Fig 4).

Figure 4 here

Vehicular Growth The time series analysis of Bangalore data shows that there was a high rate of growth of

vehicles in the 1970s and medium growth in the 1980s, which stabilised at 10% in the 1990s (Fig 5). This high rate of growth in two-wheelers indicates the lack or inefficiency of the public


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transport system. Although there was a high rate of growth of auto rickshaws during the 1970s, this growth rate decreased in 1980s. An increase in growth for auto rickshaws can be observed from 1988. Taxis have played an insignificant role in the Bangalore city transport. The buses in Bangalore city show the lowest growth rate of 1.3% in 1983. Until 1994, there was hardly any growth in this category. A significant growth rate of around 9% can be seen from 1995 onwards. There is an unsteady growth in goods vehicles varying from 0 to 17%.

Figure here 5

Energy Demand At present, cars in Bangalore are the top consumers of fuel amounting to 133.3 million

litres/year followed by auto rickshaws with 116.7 million-liters/ year. Energy demand analysis of all vehicles in the Bangalore City is presented in Table 8.

Table 8 Here

The petrol consumption will increase 2.4 times by the year 2010, whereas the diesel requirement will increase by 1.4 times. If the same trend continues, the petrol consumption will be 10.9 times the present level by 2020. This increase in demand of petrol is because of the high rate of growth of cars and auto rickshaws projected in the future. Vehicular Emissions

In 2001, the highest CO emissions came from cars, amounting to 68 tonnes/day as shown in Table 9. According to projections, two-wheelers will have the highest emission levels at 107.03 tonnes/day by 2010 and this domination will continue even in 2020 and 2025 with 187.25 and 254.139 tonnes/day respectively. By 2020, auto rickshaws are also likely to be in second place ahead of cars in this respect. The emission level from auto rickshaws is going to be 243.75 tonnes/day by 2025. The NOx emission analysis shows that trucks are dominant with 21.84 tonnes/day in 2001. The SO2 analysis shows that trucks will emit 1.64 tonnes/day in 2001 and 0.7, 0.4 and 0.29 tonnes/day by 2010, 2020 and 2025 respectively (assuming that emission standards become more stringent in the future). The dominance of trucks can be observed with respect to SO2 emissions. Emissions of hydrocarbons are higher in two-wheelers and auto rickshaws. The current levels (2001) are 37.46 and 32.17 tonnes/day respectively. By the year 2025, these levels are expected to grow up to 66.97 and 80.94 tonnes/day respectively. The total CO emissions by all modes are 208.21 tonnes/day in 2001 and are likely to increase 667.43 tonnes/day by the year 2025. The mode-wise emission levels are shown in Fig. 6


It is clearly seen from Table 10 that cars, which have a share of 16.9% in passenger kms, emit 34.8% of total emissions. It is interesting to note that buses have a 42.8% share in passenger kms and are emitting 2.5% of the total emissions. Hence there is a need for promoting the Public Transport System.

Table 10 here

7.0 HYDERABAD DATA ANALYSIS As per the 1991 census, Hyderabad city had a population of 4.28 million with a decadal

growth rate of 67.8%. Currently, Hyderabad has a population of 5.8 million (unpublished) with a decadal growth rate of 35.5 %. The population growth rate has declined sharply between1991 and 2001


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The modal split analysis of Hyderabad city clearly indicates the dominance of two-wheelers followed by cars and auto rickshaws. Mode-wise distribution of vehicles in the year 2001is presented in Fig. 7. Figure 7 here

Vehicular Growth A time series analysis of two-wheelers shows the highest growth rate of more than 45%

in 1986. There was a significant growth rate (22.5%) of two-wheelers from 1972 to 1987, but this was subsequently reduced to 12% in 1990. Between 1990 and 1995 the growth rate was around 8%. Although there is an increase in total registered two-wheelers, there is a steady decline in their growth rate which is a positive sign for the city environment. A similar trend has been seen in cars, auto rickshaws and taxis as well. In the case of buses, although the average growth up to 1985 was around 3%, there was a significant increase after 1985. Since 1995 the average growth rate has been 8%. Contrary to the trend observed in Pune and Bangalore, this city has witnessed a decrease in the growth rate of personalised modes which augurs well for the environment in the future. The actual growth of the vehicles is given in Fig. 8.

Figure 8 here

Energy Demand Presently, two-wheelers in Hyderabad top the petrol consumption with 65.5 million litres/year, while for diesel consumption trucks are the largest users with 97 million litres/ year. The energy demand analysis of total vehicles carried out for Hyderabad City is presented in Table11. Table 11 Here Vehicular Emissions

In 2001 the highest CO emissions came from two-wheelers, amounting to 48.25 tonnes/day (Table 13). These are projected to increase up to 55.59, 79.14, and 94.94 tonnes/day respectively by 2010, 2020, and 2025. The NOx emission analysis shows that trucks are dominant with 12.34 tonnes/day. The SO2 analysis reveals that trucks are going to emit 0.97 tonnes/day. Emissions of hydrocarbons are mainly contributed by two-wheelers and auto rickshaws. The current levels (2001) are 28.10 and 12.26 tonnes/day respectively. The total CO emissions by all modes, which are 123.99 tonnes/day in 2001 would increase to 179.11 tonnes/day by the year 2025. The mode-wise emission details are given in Fig.9.


It can be observed from Table 13 that cars, which have a share of 12% in passenger kms emit 38.6% of total emissions, whereas buses, which have a 50.7% share in passenger kms are emitting 2.3% of the total emissions. Hence there is a need to promote the Public Transport System.

Comparative Analysis of Three Cities Analysis of the three cities brings out the following observations:

1. Urban areas (comprising 26% of the total population) contribute nearly 55% of GDP in India (9). This share is likely to go up in the forthcoming years. More importantly, the unprecedented growth in personalised vehicles in most Indian cities could be attributed to the growth of disposable incomes of the middle and upper middle class coupled with the


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affordable hire purchase schemes made available by the vehicle manufacturers and finance companies.

2. Hyderabad had a controlled growth rate of vehicles compared to the other two cities. The reasons for this may be due to a reduction in growth rate of the population and the market segmentation policies adopted by the State Road Transport Corporation. An analysis of buses, which are being run by the State Road Transport Corporation reveals that Hyderabad has 4.1 buses per million population while it is 2.6 and 3.6 buses per million of population in Pune and Bangalore respectively.

3. Though the population levels in Hyderabad and Bangalore are higher, the decadal growth rate of Pune was the highest with 50.6%. Though the number of vehicles in Bangalore is more in 2001, Pune reaches the top position in 2025. This is mainly because of the high growth rate of personalised modes of transport.

4. The public transport has lower level of emissions per passenger kms inspite of a higher share of passenger kms in all the cities. Therefore it is necessary to promote the public transport system.

The analysis of above cities clearly brings out the necessity to control the growth and usage of personalised modes of transport. These control measures may be made in terms of transport and landuse planning, technological improvement and effective enforcement in order to provide a safer environment.

Assumptions in the VAPIS model for Pune, Bangalore, and Hyderabad The following assumptions were made in the VAPIS model (10 & 11) regarding vehicula r growth, fuel efficiency and emission factors: 1. The vehicular growth rate given in Table 14 has been considered for the future

projections. 2. The fuel efficiency of various modes is given in Table 15. In the future, the default

scenario assumes a 2% increase in fuel efficiency annually. 3. The default emission factors have been taken from the Central Pollution Control Board

(CPCB), India and other estimates and the same is given in Table 16. These emission factors depend on a variety of factors including manufacturing standards, vehicle and fuel pollution mitigation options, altitude, driving cycle, fuel quality, type, and speed. It assumes a declining trend due to stricter emission norms and supply of cleaner fuel in the future.

4. Unleaded fuel is being used for all automobiles from 2001 onwards. 5. Regarding vehicular emissions, Euro I norms are applicable for all vehicles in 2001,

Euro III norms in 2010 and Euro IV norms in 2020 and 2025.

Possible Limitations Of The Time Series Forecasting Model The limitations of the study are mentioned below: 1. This model works only on time series data and hence the effect of policy decisions can not be

represented. 2. Vehicle retirement life predicted by this model may not represent the actual situation since

there is no retirement life prescribed in the MV act of 1988 3. The vehicles registered in each city may not represent the actual number of vehicles in-use in

the city.

7.0 TRANSPORTATION MEASURES TO PROVIDE A SAFER ENVIRONMENT

A seemless flow of vehicle movement reduces traffic congestion and consumption of more fuel. At the traffic signal points all kinds of vehicles get choked to go first and fast. This


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keeps vehicles in idling, emitting more pollutants by consuming more fuel. The smoothing of the traffic flow needs proper forecasting. Educational and work trip constitute around 70% of the total trips. By providing proper and punctual public transport, traffic congestion can be reduced. Further this will reduce the use of personalised vehicles. The following steps would help to achieve a sustainable transport system • Separate lanes for different kinds of vehicles. • Segregation of slow and fast moving vehicles. • Diversion of heavy goods vehicles through city bypass roads as these vehicles mostly

operate on National and State highways • Optimization of traffic flows and improvement in traffic management by having area traffic

control systems and no-traffic zones • Removal of road encroachment and regulation of construction activities to ensure a smoother

flow of traffic • Restricted areas for the operation of Intermediate Public Transport modes – Three-wheelers

must be operated only as a supplementary or feeder system to the public transport system • Staggering of industry shift timings as this will reduce traffic congestion (industries and other

institutions must be convinced to do this). • Duration of signaling time should be different at different times of day. Otherwise this would

result in unnecessary stoppage of vehicles at signal points. • Proper city planning is a must to provide a smooth flow of traffic. Urban development

authorities must play a key role in this regard.

The above points certainly help not only in reducing the quantity of pollutants, but also fuel consumption.

8.0 SUGGESTIONS TO REDUCE VEHICULAR EMISSIONS Stringent emission regulations and their effective implementation have produced good

results in the U.S.A. and Europe. According to the 1992 World Development and Environment Report of the World Bank, emission standards in developing countries are either non-existent or much less stringent than in the European countries. An expert committee was set up by the Government of India, Ministry of Environment and Forests on 16th May 1991 to propose vehicle emission standards for the years 1992, 1996 and 2000. After detailed discussion on the expert committee report with the concerned agencies, emission standards for 1992, 1996 and 2000 were finalised. However the Indian emission standards are very lax compared to current Euro standards. Hence, there is a need to review the 2000 emission standards of India and make them more stringent. M.V. Act 1988 (12) and the Central Motor Vehicle Rules 1989 (13) with Regard to Vehicular Pollution

In India, the Motor Vehicles Act of 1988 and the Central Motor Vehicle Rules of 1989 have several provisions dealing with pollution from vehicular traffic

Rule 115 (2) of the CMVR 1989 states that every motor vehicle must comply with the following standard:

- Idling CO emission limit for all petrol-fueled four-wheelers shall not exceed 3% by volume

- Idling CO emission limit for all petrol driven two- and three-wheelers shall not exceed 4.5% by volume.

Sub rule 3, 4 and 5 of Rule 115 lay down detailed emission standards for diesel driven and petrol driven vehicles. To bring down emissions to an acceptable level there is a need to review the above emission limits which were prescribed ten years ago.


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9.0 CONCLUSION

The estimated growth in vehicles and consequent fossil fuel consumption clearly indicates that air pollution in major cities in India would assume gigantic proportions. For the sustainable growth of these cities in the future, the problem will have to be addressed objectively. Passenger transport needs in Indian cities are satisfied by private modes like two-wheelers and cars because of their flexibility in operation. The approach adopted to forecast vehicular growth, energy demand and pollution levels using the VAPIS model has highlighted the need to prioritise public transport. Since transport is a State subject in India, the respective state Governments will have to develop implementable strategies to promote an acceptable level of public transport and reduce the usage of personalised modes of transport. The comparative analysis of three cities under review proves that Hyderabad, which has a relatively higher level of public transport, has shown the least growth in personalised modes compared to the cities of Pune and Bangalore. Apart from addressing the problem of excessive fuel consumption, it will also lead to a reduction of congestion levels on our limited road system, less vehicular emissions, something essential for the health of our society in the long run. References

1. Motor Transport Statistics of India, Ministry of Surface Transport , 1997 2. Ray, Amit. Control of Vehicular Pollution through Regulation and Technology, Indian

Journal of Transport Management, 131-146, 2001 3. Sibal. Vinod and Sachdeva. Yash. Urban Transport Scenario in India and its Linkages

with Energy and Environment, Urban Transport Journal, vol. 2. No. 1, 34-55, 2001 4. Perspective planning for Transport Development, Report of Steering Committee, Energy

Policy Division, Planning Commission, 1994 5. Satyanarayana. Y., Convention on Environmental Sustainability of Road Transport, held

on 24th February at Administrative Staff College of India, Hyderabad, 2001 6. Urban Statistics, Central Pollution Control Board, Town and Country Planning

Organisation, Ministry of Urbasn Affairs and Employment, Government of India, October 1996

7. Census of India Report 1991, Government of India. 8. Mohan N.C., The Paradox of Urbanisation, News Paper Article, Financial Express July

2001 9. Traffic and Transportation Policies and Stratagies in Urban Areas in India, Final Report,

Ministry of Urban Development, Government of India, New Delhi, March 1998 10. Harsha Deep N.R.. Vehicular Air Pollution System (VAPIS) for Delhi. SASEN. World

Bank, 1998. 11. Kokaz, K. Vehicular Air Pollution System (VAPIS) for Delhi (modified). DEAS.

Harvard University, 2001 12. Motor Vehicle Act 1988, Government of India 13. Central Motor Vehic le Rules 1989, Government of India


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LIST OF TABLES Table 1 - Total number of registered motor vehicles in India 1951-97 (in thousands) Table 2 - Composition of energy consumption in Transport sector (in percentage) Table 3 - Percentage contribution to automobile pollution by vehicle categories Table 4 - Daily vehicle emission load for a few cities in India during 1994 Table 5 - Estimated fuel consumption in Pune city Table 6 - Estimated daily emissions in Pune city in tons/day Table 7 - Mode-wise emissions per billion-passenger km/yr during 2000-2001 Table 8 - Estimated fuel consumption in Bangalore city Table 9 - Estimated daily emissions in Bangalore city in tons/day Table 10 - Mode-wise emissions per billion passenger km/yr during 2000-2001 Table 11 - Estimated fuel consumption in Hyderabad city Table 12 - Estimated daily emissions in Hyderabad city in tons/day Table 13 - Mode-wise emissions per billion passenger km/yr during 2000-2001 Table 14 - Assumptions in vehicular growth rates for Pune, Bangalore and Hyderabad Table 15 - Assumed factors for Fuel efficiency and Average Speed of various modes Table 16 - Assumed Emission factors for different modes


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LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 - Mode-wise vehicle population in Pune city Figure 2 - Historical vehicle growth in Pune (1971-96) Figure 3 - Mode-wise emissions in Pune city Figure 4 - Mode-wise vehicle population in Bangalore city Figure 5 - Historical vehicle growth in Bangalore (1971-96) Figure 6 - Mode-wise emissions in Bangalore city Figure 7 - Mode-wise vehicle population in Hyderabad city Figure 8 - Historical vehicle growth in Hyderabad (1971-96) Figure 9 - Mode-wise emissions in Hyderabad city


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TABLE 1 Total no of registered motor vehicles in India 1951-97 (in thousands)

Year (As on 31st March)

All Vehicles Two Wheelers

Cars, Jeeps & Taxis

Buses Goods Vehicles

Others*

1951 306 27 159 34 82 4 1956 426 41 203 47 119 16 1961 665 88 310 57 168 42 1966 1099 226 456 73 259 85 1971 1865 576 682 94 343 170 1976 2700 1057 779 115 351 398 1981 5391 2618 1160 162 554 897 1986 10577 6245 1780 227 863 1462 1991 21374 14200 2954 331 1356 2533 1992 23507 15661 3205 358 1514 2769 1993 25505 17183 3361 364 1603 2994 1994 27660 18899 3569 392 1691 3109 1995 30295 20831 3841 423 1794 3406 1996 33783 23252 4204 449 2031 3847 1997 37231 25693 4662 488 2260 4128

* Others include Tractors, Trailers, Three wheelers (Passengers and Goods

Vehicles) and other Misc. Vehicles which are not separately classified.

Source: (1)


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TABLE 2 Composition of energy consumption in Transport sector (in percentage)

Parameter 1960-61 1975-76 1985-86 1993-94 1994-95 Coal 47 17 7 0.9 0.3 Oil 51 81 91 96.6 97.3 Electricity 2 2 2 2.5 2.4

Source: (4)


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TABLE 3 Percentage contribution to automobile pollution by vehicle categories

Vehicle type % contribution to pollution Two wheelers 77.7 Cars 11.5 Three wheelers 5.4 Buses 2.0 Trucks 3.4 Total 100

Source: (5)


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TABLE 4 Daily vehicle emission load for a few cities in India during 1994

City SPM SO2 NOx HC CO Total tons

daily Delhi 10.3 8.96 126.46 249.57 651.01 1046.30 Mumbai 5.59 4.03 70.82 108.21 469.92 659.57 Bangalore 2.62 1.76 26.22 78.51 195.36 304.47 Calcutta 3.25 3.65 54.69 43.88 188.24 293.71 Ahmedabad 2.95 2.89 40.00 67.75 179.14 292.73 Pune 2.39 1.28 6.20 73.20 162.24 255.31 Chennai 2.34 2.02 8.21 50.46 143.22 226.25 Hyderabad 1.94 1.56 16.84 56.33 126.17 202.84

Source: (6)


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TABLE 5 Estimated fuel consumption in Pune city

Million Ltrs/yr Year Vehicle Kms. Traveled

(Bill.km/yr.)

Fuel Consumed Fuel (Mill. L/yr.)

Petrol diesel

2001 84.17 345.41 174 147 2010 153.87 804.60 501 291 2020 332.45 2264.20 1621 635 2025 535.00 3884.00 2939 939


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TABLE 6 Estimated daily emissions in Pune city in tones/day

2001 Vehicle Type

No. of Vehicles

CO NOx SO2 HC TSP PM10 Total

Cars 71771 20.2 2.32 0.034 3.8 0.3 0.2 26.854 2Wh. 560359 36.1 0.30 0.058 19.2 0.9 0.7 57.258 Autos 30785 28.0 0.75 0.036 18.4 0.9 0.7 48.786 Taxis 1633 2.7 0.25 0.002 0.5 0.03 0.02 3.502 Buses 6602 9.2 9.72 0.903 1.8 1.42 1.11 24.153 Trucks 10367 7.5 9.51 0.724 1.2 1.38 1.09 21.404 Total 681517 103.7 22.85 1.757 44.9 4.93 3.82 181.957

2010 Cars 256502 30.34 3.19 0.012 4.81 0.574 0.46 39.4 2Wh. 2403268 93.23 0.39 0.025 31.3 1.992 1.59 128.5 Autos 75894 37.56 0.57 0.009 18.6 1.499 1.32 59.5 Taxis 955 1.12 0.10 0.0001 0.21 0.013 0.01 1.5 Buses 15264 9.9 8.53 0.544 2.03 1.28 0.98 23.26 Trucks 20294 9.72 7.57 0.530 1.00 1.15 0.91 20.4 Total 2772177 181.9 20.4 1.1 58.0 6.5 5.3 273.1


2025 Cars 2048188 83.29 7.30 0.098 9.96 1.891 1.51 104.0 2Wh. 24005351 419.11 0.95 0.248 97.3 8.602 6.88 533.1 Autos 320191 66.26 0.47 0.037 23.2 3.014 2.70 95.7 Taxis 1051 0.47 0.04 0.0002 0.08 0.006 0.01 0.6 Buses 73032 19.06 7.44 0.301 2.1 0.993 0.79 28.0 Trucks 45081 9.92 5.14 0.26 0.69 0.767 0.61 17.2 Total 26492893 598.12 18.70 0.708 133 15.3 12.50 778.6


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TABLE 7 Mode wise emissions per billion-passenger km/yr during 2000-2001

Pune

Mode Billion Passenger

km/day

% Mode Split

Emission/ Billion Passenger-km/yr

% Emission/ Billion Passenger-km/yr

Cars 4263204 6.8% 6332 31.3% 2w 9834306 15.6% 5816 28.8% Auto 6501693 10.3% 7498 37.1% Bus 42252340 67.2% 571 2.8% Total 62851542 100% 20217 100%


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TABLE 8 Estimated fuel consumption in Bangalore city

Mill. ltrs/year Year Vehicle Kms. Traveled

(Bill.km/yr.)

Fuel Consumed Fuel (Mill. L/yr.)

petrol Diesel 2001 142.2 517.1 354 163 2010 213.76 1,093.2 864 229 2020 383.19 2,753.3 2,351 402 2025 546.19 4398.5 3866 532


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TABLE 9 Estimated daily emissions in Bangalore city in tones/day

Emissions (tons/day) Vehicle Type

No. of Vehicles


Cars 199677 68 7.2 0.1 13 0.9 0.7 89.9 2Wh. 921125 66.6 0.6 0.1 37.5 1.5 1.2 107.5 Autos 57187 48.7 1.3 0.1 32.2 1.6 1.3 85.2 Taxis 2062 3 0.3 0.003 0.6 0.03 0.03 3.963 Buses 4694 6.2 6.6 0.6 1.2 1.0 0.8 16.4 Trucks 20139 15.6 21.85 1.64 2.5 3.1 2.5 47.19 Total 1204884 208.1 37.85 2.543 87 8.13 6.53 350.153


2020 Cars 1681107 118.7 11 0.1 17.1 2.3 1.8 151.0 2Wh. 7411757 187.3 0.7 0.1 54.2 3.8 3.1 249.2 Autos 663687 161 1.2 0.1 56.5 7.2 6.4 232.4 Taxis 3903 1.5 0.1 0.001 0.2 0.02 0.02 1.8 Buses 25235 8.3 6.4 0.4 1.3 0.9 0.7 18.0 Trucks 26199 8.6 4.28 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.4 14.7 Total 9811889 485.4 23.7 0.9 130.0 14.7 12.4 667.1

2025 Cars 2938064 150.2 13.5 0.14 20.1 3.1 2.5 189.5 2Wh. 12837347 254.1 0.8 0.13 67 5.2 4.2 331.4 Autos 1275268 243.8 1.5 0.15 80.9 11.3 10.2 347.9 Taxis 4785 1.4 0.1 0.001 0.2 0.02 0.02 1.7 Buses 37819 10.2 6.25 0.38 1.2 0.86 0.64 19.5 Trucks 31619 7.8 5.1 0.29 0.6 0.8 0.6 15.2 Total 17124901 667.5 27.3 1.1 170.0 21.3 18.2 905.3


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TABLE 10 Mode wise emissions per billion passenger km/yr during 2000-2001

Bangalore

Mode Billion Passenger

km/day

% Mode Split



Cars 11860790 16.9% 7591.86 34.8% 2w 16165743 23.0% 6652.08 30.5% Auto 12077969 17.2% 7052.12 32.3% Bus 30038508 42.8% 544.684 2.5% Total 70143010 100% 21840.7 100.0%


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TABLE 11 Estimated fuel consumption in Hyderabad city

Mill. ltrs/year Year Vehicle Kms. Traveled

(Bill.km/yr.)

Fuel Consumed Fuel (Mill.

L/yr.) petrol diesel 2001 87.62 313.5 169 119 2010 101.45 518.7 266 236.6 2020 129.61 948.2 458 479.1 2025 150.28 1,295.2 607 679.2


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TABLE 12 Estimated daily emissions in Hyderabad city in tons/day

2001 Vehicle Type

No. of Vehicles


Cars 80319 37.17 3.49 0.04 6.98 0.43 0.35 48.46 2Wh. 612299 48.26 0.51 0.06 28.11 1.03 0.83 78.8 Autos 19202 19.5 0.48 0.02 12.26 0.57 0.48 33.31 Taxis 2740 3.77 0.36 0.004 0.72 0.05 0.04 4.944 Buses 3141 4.59 5.06 0.49 0.89 0.73 0.57 12.33 Trucks 15388 10.71 12.35 0.97 1.65 1.8 1.41 28.89 Total 733088 124 22.25 1.584 50.61 4.61 3.68 206.734





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TABLE 13 Mode wise emissions per billion passenger km/yr during 2000-2001

Hyderabad Mode Billion

Passenger km/day

% Mode Split



Cars 4770953 12.0% 10157.51 38.6% 2w 10745843 27.1% 7332.645 27.9% Auto 4055512 10.2% 8216.94 31.2% Bus 20100230 50.7% 613.7636 2.3% Total 39672539 100% 26320.86 100.0%


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TABLE 14 Assumptions in vehicular growth rates for Pune, Bangalore and Hyderabad

Pune Bangalore Hyderabad Cars 14.6 11.8 6 2Wh. 16.5 11.6 9 Taxi 1.8 4.2 6 Auto 10.1 14 7.2 Bus 11 8.4 6.6 Truck 5.5 3.8 7.1


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TABLE 15 Assumed factors for Fuel efficiency and Average Speed of various modes

Fuel Efficiency Avg. Speed Mode (km/l) (km/hr) Cars 14.18 30.0 2-Wh. 44.44 30.0 Autos 20.41 20.0 Taxis 9.43 30.0 Bus 3.70 15.0 Trucks (HCV 45%, LCV 55%)

8.00 15.0


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TABLE 16 Assumed Emission factors for different modes

Year CO NOx SO2 HC TSP PM10 Car

2001 2.20 0.40 0.018 0.39 0.080 0.06 2001


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FIGURE 1 Mode-wise Population in Pune city.


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FIGURE 2 Historical vehicle growth in Pune (1971-96).


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FIGURE 3 Mode-wise emissions (tonnes/day) in Pune city.


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FIGURE 4 Mode-wise vehicle population in Bangalore city.


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FIGURE 5 Historical vehicle growth in Bangalore (1971-96).


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FIGURE 6 Mode-wise emissions in Bangalore city.


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FIGURE 7 Mode-wise Population in Hyderabad city.


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FIGURE 8 Historical vehicle growth in Hyderabad (1971-96).


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FIGURE 9 Mode-wise emissions in Hyderabad city.

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