1

Translating the Data

Presentation toBraddock Tomorrow

Town Meeting Series and Dialogue

Paul DesJardinMetropolitan Washington Council of Governments

November 8, 2006

2

Translating the Data

• Review of economic and demographic trends driving growth in the Washington region

• Review of COG initiatives and “tools” to assist with planning for growth and change

• Review of recent initiatives on futures and “visioning”

3

Population Growth in Metropolitan Washington 1

1985-1994 and 1995-2005 1(1983 MSA)

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

District of Columbia Suburban Maryland Northern Virginia

(Tho

usan

ds)

1985-1994 1995-2005

Sources Bureau of the Census, local government estimates, MWCOG

4

Square Feet of Commercial Construction Startedin Metropolitan Washington 1 1995-2005

1(1983 MSA)

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

140,000,000

160,000,000

180,000,000

District of Columbia Suburban Maryland Northern Virginia

Source: MWCOG Commercial Development Inventory

5

Commercial Construction Starts 1980 to 2005Total Square Feet

16.5

28.7

18.6

26.1

34.0

21.6

19.0

16.3

12.3

15.7

21.3

41.8

48.6

31.1

27.7

24.4

32.2

33.6

29.3

19.716.0

39.4

24.4

20.1

19.217.4

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

'80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 05

Year

Sq

uare

Feet

(Mil

lio

ns)

6

Job Growth in Metropolitan Washington 1

1985-1994 and 1995-20051(1983 MSA)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

District of Columbia Suburban Maryland Northern Virginia

(Thousands o

f W

age &

Sala

ry J

obs)

1985-199 1995-2005

Source: ES-202 data, MWCOG

7

Federal Procurement in Metropolitan Washington1

1985-1994 and 1995-20041 (1983 MSA)

$0

$50,000,000

$100,000,000

$150,000,000

$200,000,000

$250,000,000

District of Columbia Suburban Maryland Northern Virginia

Cur

rent

$s

(000

s)

1985-1994 1995-2004

Source: Bureau of Census ; MWCOG

8

Median Household Income, 2005

$47,221

$84,388

$69,573

$73,149

$82,187

$63,365

$80,433

$66,116

$94,610

$98,483

$81,904

$68,816

$78,675

$46,242

$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000

District of Columbia

Calvert County

Charles County

Frederick County

Montgomery County

Prince George's County

Arlington County

City of Alexandria

Fairfax County

Loudoun County

Prince William County

Spotsylvania County

Stafford County

United States

9

Mean travel time to work

25.1

25.9

28.3

29.3

31.2

31.5

32.9

33.2

35.7

36.2

39.4

40.5

40.9

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

United States

Arlington County

City of Alexandria

District of Columbia

Fairfax County

Loudoun County

Frederick County

Montgomery County

Prince George's County

Charles County

Calvert County

Prince William County

Stafford County

(minutes)

10

ArlingtonCounty

District ofColumbia

MontgomeryCounty

16,420

16,9

43213

FrederickCounty

9284

Prince William County/Manassas/Manassas Park

88,908

Prince George’sCounty

Alexandria

Loudoun County

Outside of COG Region

Fairfax County48,670

27,641

11,925

9,594

Place of Work for Fairfax County’s Residents

11

Fairfax County 278,064 Fairfax County 278,064Prince William County 44,322 District of Columbia 88,908Loudoun County 35,933 Arlington County 48,670Montgomery County 22,148 City of Alexandria 27,641Arlington County 20,476 Montgomery County 16,943Prince George's County 18,258 Loudoun County 16,420City of Alexandria 14,643 City of Fairfax 15,741District of Columbia 12,244 Prince George's County 9,594City of Manassas 5,145 Prince William County 7,013City of Fairfax 4,964 City of Falls Church 4,061City of Manassas Park 1,964 City of Manassas 1,937Frederick County 1,786 City of Manassas Park 334City of Falls Church 1,653 Frederick County 213Stafford County 7,249 Fauquier County 680Fauquier County 5,499 Stafford County 587Spotsylvania/Fredericksburg 3,638 Spotsylvania/Fredericksburg 218Warren County 2,246 Warren County 177Culpeper County 1,560 Culpeper County 98Clarke County 789 King George County 91King George County 191 Clarke County 44Other Virginia Jurisdictions 5,782 Other Virginia Jurisdictions 2,389Baltimore PMSA 5,983 Baltimore PMSA 2,512Charles County 2,475 Charles County 491Calvert County 866 Calvert County 60Other Maryland Jurisdictions 736 Other Maryland Jurisdictions 224West Virginia 2,001 Pennsylvania 361Pennsylvania 822 West Virginia 73Elsewhere 4,835 Elsewhere 3,920Total Jobs 506,272 Total Resident Workers 527,464

Live and Work in Fairfax County 278,064 Live and Work in Fairfax County 278,064Work in Fairfax County and Live Elsewhere 228,208 Live in Fairfax County and work elsewhere 249,400Total Jobs 506,272 Total Resident Workers 527,464

Oth

er

Place of Work for Fairfax County's Residents

CO

G R

egio

nO

uts

ide

CO

G R

egio

n

Vir

gin

iaM

aryl

and

Place of Residence for Fairfax County's WorkforceV

irg

inia

Mar

ylan

dC

OG

Reg

ion

Ou

tsid

e C

OG

Reg

ion

Oth

er

12

COG Membership COG Membership and 2000 Census and 2000 Census

WWashington-ashington-Baltimore Baltimore Combined Combined

Metropolitan AreaMetropolitan Area

Winchester, VA-WV MSA

Baltimore, MD MSA

Washington DC-VA-MD-WV MSA

Lexington

Park*

13

14

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

30% of Monthly Salary (Gross)

$1,751 Average Mortgage (2002)

$1,157 Average Rent (2002)

Comparison of Average Monthly Wages and Average Housing Cost: A Workforce Housing Crisis

15

In early 1990s, COG and member local governments initiated the Partnership for Regional Excellence.

16

In 1998, the TPB adopted its Vision.

“The transportation system will provide reasonable access at reasonable cost to everyone…”

“…include a healthy regional core and dynamic regional activity centers…”

“…achieve better inter-jurisdictional coordination of transportation and land use planning…”

17

Outcomes of TPB Vision: Regional Activity Center Maps.