Transition to Renewable Energy until 2030 – 2050 in the EU ... · Transition to Renewable Energy...
Transcript of Transition to Renewable Energy until 2030 – 2050 in the EU ... · Transition to Renewable Energy...
Transition to Renewable Energy until 2030 – 2050 in the EU and Denmark,
INFORSE VisionGunnar Boye Olesen, International Network for Sustainable Energy (INFORSE)Power & Place, Oct. 3, 2009,
Centre for Alternative Technology, Waleshttp://www.inforse.org/europe/seminar09_CAT.htm
International Network for Sustainable Energy
• Network of 150 NGOs worldwide, 72 in Europe• Publish Sustainable Energy News• Develop & promote sustainable energy visions• Members cooperate and exchange information• Training with Distance Internet Education for RES• Follow international processes: Climate, IRENA• Follow EU Policies• Supported by EC - DG ENV, Nordic Council &
others
The INFORSE Vision
• Phase out fossil fuel and nuclear power• Provide everybody with basic energy needs
INFORSE Sustainable Energy VisionsGlobal Vision
Vision for EU-27Bulgaria Denmark
Latvia Lithuania Romania Slovakia
UK Zero Carbon BritainBelarusRussia
Ukraine
The Global Vision
Prof. Bent Sørensen, 100% Renewable Energy Scenario, Low Energy Consumption Scen. 1999
Energy Services per capitaIndustrialised countries Developing countries.
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3000
4000
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6000
7000
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9000
2000 2050 2000 2050
Transport
El.+mechanical
Medium+high t.
Low temp.
Primary Energy (TWh/y)Industrialised countries Developing countries
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40000
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60000
70000
2000 2050 2000 2050
Nuclear
Fossil
Biomass
Hydro
Solar
Wind
EU's Challenges in a Global Development Rights Framework
EU-27 Sustainable Energy Vision
Input:Modest increase in energy services, less road transportLarge increase in energy efficiency, factor 4 in end-use sectors when possibleEfficient energy supply with combined heat and power, smarter and more efficient gridsRapid development of renewable energyPhase out of nuclear until 2025
Renewable Energy Supply - EU27 Renewable Energy Supply, EU27
HydroGeothermal
Biomass
Energy ForestBio-fuel, liquid
BiogasWindpower
2000
Solar heatSolar PV
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2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
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20 000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
PJ
Total Primary Energy Supply, EU-27
Other RE
BiomassCoal & waste
Oil products
Natural gas
Nuclear
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
PJ
(tho
usan
dPrimary Energy
25%
Electricity Divided in Supply, EU-27
Hydro
Biomass
Wind
Solar PVFossils
NuclearIm port
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
PJ
INFORSE's EU-27 Vision
Vision for Denmark (OVE)Strong growth in windpower, sust. biomassReduce specific building consumption 39% to '30Reduce specific electricity use, industry 42% to '30 Flexible energy: district heating, heat pumps, electric cars and hydrogenSustainable transport
system, 75% more efficientNo new international
power lines
Development of activities, DK
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
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Activity compared with 2000, selected sectors
TrainsTotal person transportHousehold areaIndustrial pro-duction in tonsCars
Final energy demand, all energies
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
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TransportHouseholdsService sectorsIndustryAgriculture, fishery
PJ
Danish Primary Energy Demand
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
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200
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Danish Primary Energy Supply
Coal and wasteOlieNaturgasBiomasseVind, sol, bølger, geotermi
PJ
CO2 emissions from energy
• In total 2 t/capita per year in average 2010 – 2049 = sustainable level
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500
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CO2 emissions from energy consumption, million tons CO2/år
Danish Renewable Energy
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500
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Renewable Energy Supply (PJ)
Solar PVSolar heatWave PowerWind offshoreWind, landGeothermalBiogasBio-fuel, liquidEnergy ForestSolid biomass
Danish Power Supply
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FossilsWasteSolar PVWave&hydroWindBiomass
PJ
System in balance in 2030
Hourly balances made with Energy Plan programme 1% unused
windpower Existing import/
export lines
RES12 = WindRE34 = wave+PVCHP incl. geothermal
Balance in all SeasonsJanuary, calm July, calm
Thank you
See www.inforse.org/europe
Variations in Power Supply & Heat P.
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4500
Kraftvarmeværker, elproduktion 2030, varighedskurve - hele året (MW)
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1000Kraftværker, elproduktion, varighedskurve - hele året (MW)
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2000Varmepumper, elforbrug 2030, varighedskurve - hele året (MW)