Estonian energy scenarios 2030, 2050 Mikael Togeby Anders Larsen.

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Estonian energy scenarios 2030, 2050 Mikael Togeby Anders Larsen

Transcript of Estonian energy scenarios 2030, 2050 Mikael Togeby Anders Larsen.

Page 1: Estonian energy scenarios 2030, 2050 Mikael Togeby Anders Larsen.

Estonian energy scenarios 2030, 2050

Mikael TogebyAnders Larsen

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Agenda

• How will the future be?• Levelised cost of electricity• Focus on demand• Updated scenario results• Conclusion

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Executive summary

Other analyses

BalmorelStream

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HOW WILL THE FUTURE BE?

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What we know!

• “The era of cheap oil is over” (IEA)• Energy policy will continue to be high on the

agenda– A combination of: Environment/Economy/Security

of supply• EU will continue to be an important player for

the development of national energy policy

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What we don’t know

• Future CO2 price• Best oil shale options– To produce electricity?– To produce shale oil?– To supply retort gas for electricity generation?– Detailed cost and efficiency information is missing

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Eight scenarios

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Eight scenarios

• The scenarios are not predictions• Together they span a major part of possible

futures– Input driven scenarios:• Define input• Let model develop energy system• Study results and discuss!

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LEVELIZED COST OF ELECTRICITY

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Levelized cost of electricity

Coal Natural gas Oil shale Wood pellets Wood chips Rebuild shale to coal

Onshore wind Offshore wind0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

CO2-costAfgifter EUR/MWhO&M costCapital costTotal

€/M

Wh

6,000 full load hours per year (Wind: 3,000/4,000), 2020Rebuild from oil shale to coal attractive (limited potential)

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116,000 full load hours per year, 2020

Coal - E

XT

Natural

gas -

EXT

Oil shale

- EXT

Wood pell

ets - E

XT

Wood ch

ips - EX

T - la

rge

Wood ch

ips - BP - m

edium

Wood ch

ips - BP - s

mall

Straw

- BP - s

mall

Biogas -

BP

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Heat sales

CO2-cost

Afgifter EUR/MWh

Capital cost

Fuel cost

Total

€/M

Wh

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CHP!

• Combined heat and power (CHP) is an effective way to produce heat and electricity

• 40% of the current district heating in Estonia is delivered by CHP– In Denmark: 71%– Model result: This is also realistic for Estonia

• Including investments in heat storage

• By January 2014 Estonia shall report to EU about plans to develop CHP– The collective nature of district heating requires careful

development of framework

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Energy efficiency

EU27

Denmark

Estonia

Latvia

Lithuan

ia

Finlan

d

Swed

en

Norway

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

PrimaryFinalkW

h/€

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Energy efficiency

• Estonian specific energy intensity is unusual high– Households is the biggest energy sector…

• Estonia must report to EU about how to implement the new Energy Efficiency Directive by December 2013– Energy efficiency obligation or alternative policy instruments

• Reduced cost in energy efficiency scenario: x M€ (net present value, 5%)– This can be used as benchmark: Investments and costs of

policy instruments must be lower than this value

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Nord Pool

• By 3 June 2013 all Baltic states is part of Nord pool– Can greatly improve trading– Next important milestone to integrate Nordic and

Baltic markets: • EstLink 2 in 2014• SwedLit connection in 2015

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FOCUS ON DEMAND

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Electricity

Business as usual Energy efficiency

(36 PJ = 10 TWh)

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District heating

2010 2020 2030 20500

5

10

15

20

25

ResidentialIndustryTertiary

PJ

2010 2020 2030 20500

5

10

15

20

25

ResidentialIndustryTertiary

PJ

Business as usual Energy efficiency

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Heated area – residential

Business as usual Energy efficiency

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Transport

Business as usual Energy efficiency

Note: Conversion losses of electricity are not included

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SCENARIO RESULTSMODEL AREA

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Electricity generation

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SCENARIO RESULTSESTONIA

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Investments in electricity generation

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Electricity generation

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District heating generation20

1220

2020

2220

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CO2 CONCERN

110 % CO2 COL-

LAPSE

LIBERAL OIL SHALE RE FOCUS RETORT GAS CARBON LEAKAGE

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

ElWood chipsStrawBiogasNatural gasOil shaleCoalOilWaste

PJ/y

ear

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Stakeholder economics(Mio. euro) ESTONIA LATVIA LITHUANIA RUSSIA NORDIC GERMANY & POLAND TOTAL

110%Generator profits: -577 -27 7 -19 -474 -167 -1257Consumer surplus: 356 13 5 26 462 126 987TSO profit: -2 15 3 2 36 -92 -38Socio economic benefit: -223 1 15 8 24 -133 -308

CO2 collapseGenerator profits: -471 -1728 -3881 -22020 -99918 -49407 -177426Consumer surplus: 2427 2835 3134 31193 107424 213947 360959TSO profit: -58 -16 2283 296 674 2913 6092Socio economic benefit: 1897 1091 1536 9469 8180 167452 189625

CO2 concern**Generator profits: 200 1351 3086 15072 30397 18146 68253Consumer surplus: -79 -1560 -2438 -24705 -39040 -122899 -190720TSO profit: -98 168 -3010 306 -10438 -20767 -33839Socio economic benefit: 24 -41 -2363 -9327 -19081 -125519 -156307

Oil shaleGenerator profits: 297 5 6 -178 224 366 720Consumer surplus: -69 -41 -2 219 -175 -266 -335TSO profit: -37 2 70 7 -95 39 -13Socio economic benefit: 191 -33 74 47 -46 139 371

RE focus**Generator profits: 210 105 -61 60 -2184 -2981 -4850Consumer surplus: 719 -205 -208 -4598 -60 6986 2634TSO profit: 106 76 -206 416 1565 3613 5568Socio economic benefit: 1035 -24 -475 -4123 -679 7618 3351

Retort gasGenerator profits: 2294 -158 14 -235 -906 -543 466Consumer surplus: 62 37 26 212 813 444 1594TSO profit: 0 28 -186 -13 -9 -164 -343Socio economic benefit: 2356 -93 -146 -35 -103 -263 1716

Carbon leakageGenerator profits: -1126 -550 -452 -19279 -5537 -2960 -29904Consumer surplus: 661 336 222 30241 4993 4094 40547TSO profit: 72 140 -486 667 779 -332 840Socio economic benefit: -392 -75 -716 11629 235 802 11483

Reference = Liberal scenario

Net present value (5%)

** = EE demand(and reduced number of time steps)

Positive benefit in RE focusscenario is due to EE demand scenario.Cost of reaching EE is not included.

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CONCLUSION

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Conclusions

• New future for oil shale?• No regret options?– CHP– Energy efficiency– Biomass

• Energy planning in a liberalised market• Political questions:– OK with coal? • If yes, this is attractive in most scenarios

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EXTRA

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Balmorel – updated assumptions• Wood chips resource unlimited and small plant inv.

costs increased.• Wood chips potential for entire model increased.• Retort gas inserted as a fuel• Western part of North west link (Sweden-Norway)

scrapped• District heating and electricity demand updated• Wind data updated• RE-scenario setup with 100% RE in electricity and

district heating by 2050. No new fossil investments – only rebuild of existing plants to fossil fuels