TransAlta Presentation Investor
Transcript of TransAlta Presentation Investor
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Our plan for lower carbon sustainable value creation
Investor Presentation
May 2010
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This presentation may contain forward-looking statements, including statements regarding the business and anticipated financial performance of TransAlta Corporation. All forward-looking statements are based on our beliefs and assumptions based on information available at the time the assumption was made. These statements are not guarantees of our future performance and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by the forward-looking statements. Some of the factors that could cause such differences include cost of fuels to produce electricity, legislative or regulatory developments, competition, global capital markets activity, changes in prevailing interest rates, currency exchange rates, inflation levels, unanticipated accounting or audit issues with respect to our financial statements or our internal control over financial reporting, plant availability, and general economic conditions in geographic areas where TransAlta Corporation operates. Given these uncertainties, the reader should not place undue reliance on this forward-looking information, which is given as of this date. The material assumptions in making these forward-looking statements are disclosed in our 2009 Annual Report to shareholders and other disclosure documents filed with securities regulators.
Unless otherwise specified, all dollar amounts are expressed in Canadian dollars.
Forward looking statements
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OutlineAbout UsOur StrategyMarkets, Contracting, and GrowthFinancial Strength & Capital Allocation2010 Outlook
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Highly levered to growthin Alberta market
Strategically positionedin the PacNW
Canada’s largest publically traded wholesale power generator
Sustainable & consistent shareholder value creation
2010 by the facts
2,032 MW of renewable energy;Canada’s leading provider
Balance sheet strength and investment grade credit ratios
Contracts
International27%
Western Canada
59%Eastern Canada
14%
Region MW
Renewables24%
Coal54%
Gas22%
Fuel Type MW
TransAlta
Long-term>5yrs
Medium-term3-5yrs
Short-term<3yrs
Open
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Coal48%
Renewables29%
Executing on our strategy
2010 by the numbers
>50% EBITDA from low carbon generation
and growing; should lead to multiple
expansion
92% contracted for 2010, leverage to power price recovery in key markets
Earnings growthReturn to double digit earnings and EBITDA growth in
2010
$850 - $950 millionCash flow from operations
$300 - $400 millionFree cash
*Analyst consensus estimate
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
2010e
Free CashFlow
Dividends
Sustaining Capex
$MEarnings per share Cash flow
Gas23%
2010e
EBITDA$1.16
$1.31$1.46
$1.12$0.90
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010e*
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UNITED STATES
CANADA
AUSTRALIA
271 MW
Generation Facilities:
Coal-fired under construction
Coal-fired plants
Gas-fired plants
Hydro plants
Wind-powered plants
Wind under construction
Geothermal
4,688 MW
1,843 MW
893 MW
950 MW
123 MW
164 MW
Biomass 25 MW
Net generation in operation 8,563 MW
Hydro under development 18 MW
Drive the base• Increase productivity• Drive operational stability• Optimize portfolio
Green our portfolio• Accelerate renewable investment• Advance natural gas combined cycle
development• Secure long-term natural gas supply
Strategic imperatives
Executing on our strategic priorities will drive near and long-term value
Reposition coal• Execute on unit specific maintenance plans• Maintain options around coal sites• Participate in CCS technology development• Transition Centralia to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
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(2,000)-
2,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%
Additional Adjusted CapacityExisting Adjusted CapacityPeak Demand based Reserve MarginPeak Demand
MWsReserve Margin
Market outlook: Alberta
Forward prices are soft but longer-term fundamentals of the Alberta market remain strong; oil sands recovery will drive load growth
(CAD$/MWh)
Figures as of May 17, 2010
Reserve margins
Expect demand to grow at ~2.5% per year for the next three years
Power prices
Forward market driven off of soft natural gas pricesNatural gas prices likely to remain low out to 2011+ $1/GJ = ~ $8 / MWh
Actuals Current Market
$40$50$60$70$80$90
$100
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
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15,00017,00019,00021,00023,00025,00027,00029,000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%
Additional Adjusted CapacityExisting Adjusted CapacityAvg. Demand based Reserve MarginAverage Demand
MWsReserve Margin
Market outlook: PacNW
Reserve margins to increase in the short-term due to demand destruction; forward pricing continues to track natural gas prices
(USD$/MWh)
Forward prices track natural gas movements+ $1 / MMBtu = ~ $7 / MWh
Reserve margins Power prices
Expect demand to grow at ~1.5% per year for the next three years
Actuals Current Market
Figures as of May 18, 2010
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
9
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2010 2011 2012 2013
Contracted Open
Alberta PPAs and long-term contracts provide solid base for stable earnings and support TransAlta’s low to moderate risk business strategy
Total MWs
Approx. target contracting level 90%
PPAs, long & medium-term contracts
PPAs, long and medium-term contracts account for
~70% of generationAverage contract life ~12 years
Merchant contracting strategy targets 25% / yr
Protecting the value of TransAlta’s generation and investment grade balance sheet
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2010 2011 2012 2013
Contracted To be contracted Open
\
2010Contracts
2012 Contracts
2011Contracts
2010 Contracts
2011 Contracts
2010 Contracts
2009Contracts
2009 Contracts
Merchant MWs
Approx. levels only
Merchant MWs
Merchant hedging strategy designed to minimize impacts of adverse market conditions while allowing for upside potential
Approximate target level - 90%
~44%
~61%
~82%
Merchant Portfolio % Contracted
on Adjusted Capacity
AB: $65 - $70PACNW: $55 - $60
~81%2012
AB: $65- $70PACNW: $55 - $60
~86%2011
AB: $60 - $65PACNW: $50 - $55
~92%2010
Merchant Portfolio Contracted Price (As of April 2010)
Total Portfolio % Contracted
Year
Capacity adjustments
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Shift focus to natural gas combined-cycleManage lifecycle investmentsExpand run of river hydro investmentsCO2 offsets trading
12 Facilities Under Advanced Development:12 Facilities Under Advanced Development:
Canadian Hydro acquisition accelerated growth of renewables Pan-Canadian approachShift focus to natural gas combined-cycleExecute LOI on Project PioneerAcquire CO2 offsets
Green our portfolio: Growth strategy
Growth strategy has shifted to accelerate near-term investments in renewables and focus on multiple options for long-term sustainability
Total Capital Spend: $2.0B – $2.4B
Short-term: 2010 - 2013
Medium-term: 2014 - 2017
Green coal with CCSRenewables in the PacNWPartner in storage hydro in Alberta
Long-term: 2018 - 2020+
6 Facilities Under Construction:
Wind
Hydro
Coal
Net Capacity
123 MW
18 MW
271 MW
412 MW
Total Capital Spend: $1.3B
Hydro
Wind
134 MW
417 MW
Geothermal 87 MW
Net Capacity 638 MW
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TransAlta’s growth investments deliver long-term sustainable cash flow and earnings growth
15%+10%+10%+10%+10%+Unlevered after tax IRR
AlbertaAlbertaBritish ColumbiaAlbertaNew BrunswickLocation
Tracking
Merchant
Unit 1 - Q4 2011
Unit 2 - Q4 2012
$68 MM
46 MW (23 MW each)
Efficiency Uprates
Keephills 1 and 2 Uprates
Tracking
Merchant
Q2 2011(3)
$988 MM (3)
225 MW (1)
Supercritical Coal
Keephills 3
Tracking
LTC
Q1 2011
$48 MM (2)
18 MW
Hydro
Bone Creek
Tracking
LTC/Merchant
Q1 2011
$135 MM
69 MW
Wind
Ardenville
Tracking
LTC
Q4 2010
$100 MM
54 MW
Wind
Kent Hills 2
On time / On budget
Contract Status
Commercial Operations Date
Total Project Cost
Size
Type
Projects
(1) 450 MW gross size(2) Bone Creek’s capital spend prior to the acquisition was $23 MM which does not form part of our total project cost(3) Keephills 3 capital spend increased from $888 MM to $988 MM and its COD was revised from Q1 2011 to Q2 2011
Executing on our growth
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Over 50% of installed base in Alberta is coal; vast economic coal reserves
Potential opportunities to retire older coal plants and replace with natural gas-fired generationCoal to play a longer-term role in Alberta with application of new technology
Sequestration capability provides potential to apply CCS on existing coal facilities
Energy Input (oil/gas)Energy Input (coal) CO2 returned
Advancing Canada’s first large-scale project to retrofit a power plant to capture and store 1M tonnes of CO2 by 2015
Repositioning coal - Alberta
Project PioneerLargest scale pilot in North AmericaAwarded over $770M of government fundingPotential to remove 90% of CO2 from emission streamPartners include: Governments of Canada and Alberta; Alstom and Capital Power. FEED study to be completed by the end of 2010
Carbon Capture and Storage
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Demonstrating environmental leadership by working together with the state of Washington to reduce GHG emissions and provide cleaner energy sources
Only non-regulated coal fired generator in Washington state; no economic coal mining in state
Lack of sequestration provides no opportunity for CCS
Working with the state to transition Centralia to cleaner fuel sources and reduce GHG emissions
Repositioning coal - Washington
Memorandum of Understanding signed with the state of Washington on April 26, 2010 to negotiate an agreement on a transition plan for Centralia
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35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
2006 2007 2008 2009 Q12010
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%
2006 2007 2008 2009 Q12010
012345678
2006 2007 2008 2009 Q12010
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
Credit Lines Utilized Credit Lines Available
Execute our plan while maintaining long-term financial strength and stability
Range:4 - 5x
Cash flow to interest
Range:20 - 25%
Financial strength
Range:55 - 60%
Debt to capital Committed credit lines
Mar. 31, 2009 Mar. 31, 2010
$B
Cash flow to debt
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NCI$200M
Capital Allocation Plan
Dividend
Provide shareholders sustainable dividend
growth
Share Buyback
Provide shareholders incremental return of
capital in absence of value-creating investment
opportunities
Growth Investment
Projects must deliver unlevered, free cash, after
tax IRR >10%
Portfolio Optimization
Divest or improve non-core and underperforming
assets
We remain disciplined in how we manage our balance sheet and allocate capital
Capital plan and funding
Dividends$750M
Announced growth capex
$500MSustaining capex$1B
Available$550M
Cash flow from
operations:~$3B
Sources & Uses of Capital 2010 – 2012
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Drive the base:• Targeting double digit comparable EPS and EBITDA growth• Approximately 92% of portfolio contracted for 2010 providing a high degree of earnings protection• Target 90% fleet availability for 2010• Energy trading expected to contribute between $50 - $70 million in gross margin
Green our portfolio:• Summerview 2 expansion (66 MW) completed on budget and ahead of schedule, Feb. 2010• Kent Hills expansion (54 MW) expected to come online in Q4 2010• Ardenville (69 MW) wind farm expected to come online in Q1 2011• Bone Creek (18 MW) hydro facility expected to come online in Q1 2011
Reposition coal:• Project Pioneer Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) underway, expected to be completed
by end of 2010• Lifecycle planning and flexibility provided by revising Alberta coal plants major maintenance
schedule on a unit by unit basis • Centralia transition planning underway to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and provide
replacement capacity by 2025
2010 Outlook
Well positioned to improve results in 2010
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Appendix
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Performance goals
Annual Metrics
4.6X
20.4%
54.9%
Annual Metric
$174 MM
$0.31
$8.00/MWh
Annual Metric
91.4%
Q1 2010
Annual Metrics
6.6X
29.9%
46.5%
Annual Metric
$83 MM
$0.18
$9.61/MWh
Annual Metric
86.4%
Q1 2009
Increased due to lower planned and unplanned outages at Alberta Coal, higher wind volumes from the acquisition of Canadian Hydro, and the increased ARO from the decommissioning of Wabamun
>10%/yrComparable EPS Grow Earnings and Cash Flow
TBD$295 - $340Sustaining CapexMake Sustaining Capex Predictable
Maintained strong balance sheet, financial ratios and ample liquidity
4 - 5X
20 - 25%
55 - 60%
Cash Flow to InterestCash Flow to DebtDebt to Total Capital
Maintain InvestmentGrade Ratings
TBD
>10%/yr>10%/yr>10%/yr
Comparable ROCETSRIRR
Deliver Long-termShareowner Value
Higher operating cash flow due to more favourable movements in working capital
Decreased year-over-year due to less major maintenance activities in Q1 2010 and due to increased capacity
TBD
Increased due to lower planned outages at Keephills and Sundance and lower unplanned outages at Sundance and Wabamun
2010 Goals
$850 - 950 MMOperating Cash Flow
90%AvailabilityAchieve top decile operations
1.0 by 2015Injury Frequency RateImprove Safety
Offset InflationOM&A/installed MWhEnhanceProductivity
Measures ReviewFinancial ratios
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$212$249EBITDA
12,173
86.4
$0.29
$83
$0.21
$0.18
$42
$36
$85
$381
$756
Q1 2009
12,914
91.4
$0.29
$174
$0.31
$0.31
$67
$67
$134
$404
$726
Q1 2010
Availability (%)
Comparable earnings per share
Basic and diluted earnings per share
Comparable earnings
Operating income
Production (GWh)
Cash dividends declared per share
Cash flow from operating activities
Net Earnings
Gross margin
Revenue
Results ($M)
Q1 2010
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1-Change in life of Centralia parts, net of tax
$0.18
198
$36
(7)
$42
Q1 2009
219Weighted average common shares outstanding in the period
$0.31
$67
-
$67
Q1 2010
Earnings on a comparable basis
Earnings on a comparable basis per share
Settlement of commercial issue, net of tax
Net earnings
Results ($M)
Comparable earnings
Q1 2010
22
Net earnings
$67Net earnings, 20101Other
(7)Decrease in other income
(13)Increase in income tax expense
9Decrease in non-controlling interest
(15)
13
14
(1)
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$42Q1 2010
Decrease in trading gross margins
Decrease in operations, maintenance, and admin costs
Decrease in depreciation expense
Increase in net interest expense
Increase in generation gross margins
Net earnings, 2009
Q1 2010
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$(64)
(7)
(1)
(16)
(54)
(69)
$83
Q1 ‘09
$56Free cash flow (deficiency)
-Other income
-Non-recourse debt repayments
(14)Distribution to subsidiaries’ non-controlling interest
(59)Dividends on common shares
(45)Sustaining capital expenditures
Add (Deduct):
$174Cash flow from operating activities
Q1 ‘10($M)
Free cash flow
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$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Thereafter
CDN MTN US Notes
1
Minimal debt refinancing over the short-term provides ample financial flexibility
(CDN $M)
1) Based on Mar. 31, 2010 FX rate of $1.0188 CAD/US
Debt profile supports balance sheet
1 1
11
25
$155 - 175
-
$35 - 40
$5 - 10
$115 - 130
$310 - 355
2011e*
-Centralia modifications
$150 - 170$140 - 155Major Maintenance
$40 - 50$25 - 30Mine
$5 -10$10 - 15Productivity capital
$115 - 130
$310 - 360
2012e*
$120 - 140
$295 - 340
2010e
Routine capital
Sustaining
($M)
Sustaining capex supports operational objectives
2010 Sustaining capital
*Estimates provided at TransAlta’s 2009 Investor Day have not been updated.
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360 - 370*
$70 - 85
$0 - 5*
$70 - 80
Natural Gas and
Renewables
1,770 - 1,780
$130 - 140
$60 - 65
$70 - 75
Coal
2,130 - 2,150GWh lost
$200 - 225Total$60 - 70Expensed
$140 - 155
Total
Capitalized
($M)
2010 Major maintenance plan
* Natural gas fleet only
Major maintenance
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Delivering on growth and creating long-term shareholder value
$313$1233
$ 772
$1131
Total
Q1 2010
Q4 2009
Q4 2009
Completion Date
$15 - 25$8166Summerview 2
$6053Sun 5 uprate
185
66
MW
$15 - 25$228 Total
$87Blue Trail
2012e2010e 2011e2009Completed
$1.3B$68
$135
$9885
$484
$100
Total
41246
69
225
18
54
MW
Q4 2010$80 - 85$18Kent Hills 2
Q1 2011$40 - 45$4Bone Creek
Q2 2011$20 - 30$225 - 245$231Keephills 3
Q1 2011$95 - 105$27Ardenville
Q4 2011 & Q4 2012$20 - 30$25 - 35$5 - 15$2KI & K2 uprates
$20 - 30
2012eTarget
Completion:
$445 - 495
2010e
$45 - 65
2011e
$282
2009
Total
In Progress
Growth capital
1. Blue Trail capital spend prior to 2009 was $26M2. Sun 5 uprate capital spend prior to 2009 was $17M3. Summerview II capital spend prior to 2009 was $25M4. Bone Creek capital spend prior to the acquisition was $23M which does not form part of our total project cost5. Keephills 3 capital spend prior to 2009 was $476M
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Advanced development
Over 600 MW of renewable energy in advanced development for TransAlta’s 2010 - 2013 pipeline
* TransAlta’s ownership** Based on initial estimates of Canadian Hydro
LOCATION PROJECT CAPACITY FUEL TYPE RESOURCE & TURBINE CAPEX RANGE PPA / MW SITE CONTROL Applied Secured SECURED $ MM LTC
Saskatchewan ANEDC 175 Wind TBD $420 - $470 PPA/LTCNew Brunswick NB - 1 54 Wind $100 - $155 PPA/LTCNew Brunswick NB - 2 54 Wind $100 - $155 PPA/LTCCalifornia Black Rock 1-3 87* Geothermal In Progress $450 - $500 PPA/LTCAlberta Dunvegan** 100 Hydro $500-$600 MerchantBritish Columbia Clemina Creek** 11 Hydro $30-$40 PPA/LTCBritish Columbia Serpentine Creek** 10 Hydro $30-$40 PPA/LTCBritish Columbia English Creek** 5 Hydro $10-$20 PPA/LTCOntario Royal Road** 18 Wind $35-$45 PPA/LTCOntario Yellow Falls** 8* Hydro $30-$40 PPA/LTCQuebec New Richmond** 66 Wind $180-$200 PPA/LTCQuebec St. Valentin** 50 Wind $150-$170 PPA/LTC
TOTAL MW : 638 TOTAL COST: $2.0 B - $2.4 B
20102010/11
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
2012
Projects in Advanced DevelopmentTARGET
COMMERCIALOPERATION DATE
2012
ENVIRONMENTAL AND PERMITS
20122013/14
2012
2012
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Macro issues impacting our industry
Having flexibility and options will create value given environmental, regulatory and technological uncertainties
Timing Wait for U.S. system to be determined Likely protracted process into 2010-11
Canada U.S.
StringencyAbsolute-based cap & trade with auctioningThermal fuel flexibility likely
Environmental protection under PPAs
Technology and efficiency for fossil plants, incl. CCS
Staged capital stock transition to cleaner sources
Timely offset acquisitions
Potential for EPA regulation with tough rule-based, prescriptive measuresSpecial consideration for coalWashington state executive order to reduce GHG emissions by ~50% by 2025
Commercial arrangements to manage merchant exposure
Fuel shifting at Centralia
Focus on geothermal growth
Response planning