TransAlta Investor Presentation August Final
Transcript of TransAlta Investor Presentation August Final
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This presentation may contain forward-looking statements, including statements regarding the business and anticipated financial performance of TransAlta Corporation. All forward-looking statements are based on our beliefs and assumptions based on information available at the time the assumption was made. These statements are not guarantees of our future performance and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by the forward-looking statements. Some of the factors that could cause such differences include cost of fuels to produce electricity, legislative or regulatory developments, competition, global capital markets activity, changes in prevailing interest rates, currency exchange rates, inflation levels, unanticipated accounting or audit issues with respect to our financial statements or our internal control over financial reporting, plant availability, and general economic conditions in geographic areas where TransAlta Corporation operates. Given these uncertainties, the reader should not place undue reliance on this forward-looking information, which is given as of this date. The material assumptions in making these forward-looking statements are disclosed in our 2009 Annual Report to shareholders and other disclosure documents filed with securities regulators.
Unless otherwise specified, all dollar amounts are expressed in Canadian dollars.
Forward looking statements
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TransAlta value proposition & strategy
Canada’s largest publically traded wholesale power
generator & marketer
Value
Dividends, growth, share buyback, and portfolio optimization
Strategy
Investment grade credit ratios
Significant cash flow generation
Diversity of regions, fuels, & contracts
Environmental leadership
Deep pipeline of low carbon growth opportunities
Low to moderate risk profile
Yield, upside potential, and steady disciplined growth
Financial strength
Balanced & disciplined capital allocation
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Incumbent Alberta Generator
Strategically positionedin the PacNW
Low cost, predictable operations
Balance sheet strength and investment grade credit ratios
Sustainable & consistent shareholder value creation
Strategically focused in Western Canada and U.S.;renewable focus across Canada
Environmental Leadership
Strategic partner / supplier relationships
Strong competitive advantages for new lower carbon generation:
• Sites and resources already secured
• 100 years experience in renewables, 20+ years in natural-gas fired generation
• Leader in clean coal technology
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AUSTRALIA
UNITED STATES
CANADA
Low CarbonGeneration
Coal
Renewables17%
Coal50%
Gas33%
2009*$697 million
Diverse portfolio of assets; growing contribution from renewables
Portfolio Fuel Type
18 MWHydro under development271 MW
Generation Facilities:
Coal-fired under construction
Coal-fired plants
Gas-fired plants
Hydro plants
Wind-powered plants
Wind under construction
Geothermal
4,688 MW
1,843 MW
893 MW
950 MW
123 MW
164 MW
Biomass 25 MW
Net generation in operation 8,563 MW
Our assets and portfolio
Renewables24%
Coal48%
Gas28%
$743 million 2010*
Gross margin contribution
54%
24%
22%
*Six months ended June 30
Gas
Renewables
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Coal48%
Renewables29%
Executing on our strategy
>50% EBITDA from low carbon generation
and growing; should lead to multiple
expansion
92% contracted for 2010, leverage to power price recovery in key markets
$800 - $900 millionCash flow from operations
$300 - $400 millionFree cash
Earnings growthReturn to double digit earnings and EBITDA growth in
2010
Earnings per share
Free CashFlow
Dividends
Sustaining Capex
$MCash flow
Gas23%
2010e
EBITDA$/share
*Analyst consensus estimate
$1.16$1.31
$1.46
$1.09$0.90
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010e*
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Capital Allocation Plan
Dividend
Provide shareholders sustainable dividend
growth
Share Buyback
Provide shareholders incremental return of
capital in absence of value-creating investment
opportunities
Growth Investment
Projects must deliver unlevered, free cash, after
tax IRR >10%
Portfolio Optimization
Divest or improve non-core and underperforming
assets
We remain disciplined in how we manage our balance sheet and allocate capital
Capital plan and funding
Sources & Uses of Capital 2010 – 2012
NCI$200M
Dividends$750M
Announced growth capex
$500M
Sustaining capex$1B
Available$550M
Cash flow from operations:~$3B
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Drive the baseEnhancing unit margins by improving plant performance on a sustained basis, driving productivity to lower costs, and optimizing contracts
Green our portfolioAccelerating our renewable investment and advancing natural-gas combined cycle development to provide our customers with electricity with less C02
Reposition coalPursuing technologies that reduce the carbon intensity of coal
Executing on our strategic priorities will drive near and long-term value
Focused and disciplined strategic priorities
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Portfolio optimization
Asset by asset focus for enhancing returns; renegotiated contract at Sarnia with the Ontario Power Authority (OPA)
Operational stability
Coal life-cycle optimized on a unit by unit basis to deliver operational stability and avoid potential of stranded capital
Targeting 89 - 90% fleet availability
Productivity investments used to offset inflationary pressures and improve performance
Organization, maintenance plans and spend aligned to low pricing environment
Increased productivity &cost reductions
Drive the base
Enhancing returns and delivering shareholder value
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12 Facilities Under Advanced Development:12 Facilities Under Advanced Development:
Strategy focus:
Wind
Geothermal
Hydro upgrades – Run of river
Natural gas combined-cycle
Green coal – Project Pioneer
Green our portfolio: Growth strategy
Accelerate near-term investments in renewables and focus on multiple options for long-term sustainability
Total Capital Spend: $2.0B – $2.4B
6 Facilities Under Construction:
Wind
Hydro
Coal
Net Capacity
123 MW
18 MW
271 MW
412 MW
Total Capital Spend: $1.3B
Hydro
Wind
134 MW
417 MW
Geothermal 87 MW
Net Capacity 638 MW
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TransAlta’s growth investments deliver long-term sustainable cash flow and earnings growth
15%+10%+10%+10%+10%+Unlevered after tax IRR
AlbertaAlbertaBritish ColumbiaAlbertaNew BrunswickLocation
Tracking
Merchant
Unit 1 - Q4 2011
Unit 2 - Q4 2012
$68 MM
46 MW (23 MW each)
Efficiency Uprates
Keephills 1 and 2 Uprates
Tracking
Merchant
Q2 2011(3)
$988 MM (3)
225 MW (1)
Supercritical Coal
Keephills 3
Tracking
LTC
Q1 2011
$48 MM (2)
18 MW
Hydro
Bone Creek
Tracking
LTC/Merchant
Q1 2011
$135 MM
69 MW
Wind
Ardenville
Tracking
LTC
Q4 2010
$100 MM
54 MW
Wind
Kent Hills 2
On time / On budget
Contract Status
Commercial Operations Date
Total Project Cost
Size
Type
Projects
(1) 450 MW gross size(2) Bone Creek’s capital spend prior to the acquisition was $23 MM which does not form part of our total project cost(3) Keephills 3 capital spend increased from $888 MM to $988 MM and its COD was revised from Q1 2011 to Q2 2011
Executing on our growth
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Repositioning coal - Alberta
Federal government mandating the phased end of coal-fired electricity generation in CanadaCoal-fired facilities to close at the latter of 45 years of age or PPA expiryOpportunities to replace coal with a mix of natural gas and clean coal technology
Strong competitive advantages in Alberta to navigate federal governments mandate to phase-out coal
Competitive advantages:
AB coal sites are ideal for development of large scale natural gas-fired generation and future clean coal
• Existing infrastructure; gas lines and quality water supply• Access to transmission capacity• Centrally located
20+ experience in building natural-gas facilitiesProject Pioneer - leading the world in carbon capture and storage (CCS)CCS supported by federal and provincial governments
Alberta coalfacilities
Alberta
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Over 50% of installed base in Alberta is coal; vast economic coal reservesCoal to play a longer-term role in Alberta with application of new technologySequestration capability provides potential to apply CCS on existing coal facilities
Advancing Canada’s first large-scale project to retrofit a power plant to capture and store 1M tonnes of CO2 by 2015
Repositioning coal - Alberta
Project PioneerLargest scale pilot in North AmericaAwarded over $770M of government fundingPotential to remove 90% of CO2 from emission streamPartners include: Governments of Canada and Alberta; Alstom, Capital Power, and EnbridgeFEED study to be completed by the end of 2010
Carbon Capture and Storage
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Demonstrating environmental leadership
Repositioning coal - Washington
Memorandum of Understanding signed with the state of Washington to negotiate an agreement on a transition plan for Centralia with the primary objective to reduce Centralia’s GHG emissions
Committed to maintaining power generation grid stability and protecting local jobs and investments in Washington state
Agreement to be cost of service with fixed and secure returns
Transition expected to commence in 2012; replacement capacity to include natural gas-fired generation and renewables
April 2010 2012 2025
MoU signed with state of Washington
Start transition based on defined schedule
Centralia fully transitioned to cleaner fuel sources
Transition planning underway Transition underway
Transition Timeline
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(2,000)-
2,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%
Additional Adjusted CapacityExisting Adjusted CapacityPeak Demand based Reserve MarginPeak Demand
MWsReserve Margin
Market outlook: Alberta
Forward prices are soft but longer-term fundamentals of the Alberta market remain strong; oil sands recovery is driving load growth
(CAD$/MWh)
Figures as of August 3, 2010
Reserve margins
Expect demand to grow at ~2.5% per year for the next three years
Power prices
Forward market driven off of soft natural gas pricesNatural gas prices likely to remain low out to 2011+ $1/GJ = ~ $8 / MWh
Actuals Current Market
$40$50$60$70$80$90
$100
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
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15,00017,00019,00021,00023,00025,00027,00029,000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%
Additional Adjusted CapacityExisting Adjusted CapacityAvg. Demand based Reserve MarginAverage Demand
MWsReserve Margin
Market outlook: PacNW
Reserve margins to increase in the short-term due to demand destruction; forward pricing continues to track natural gas prices
(USD$/MWh)
Forward prices track natural gas movements+ $1 / MMBtu = ~ $7 / MWh
Reserve margins Power prices
Expect demand to grow at ~1.5% per year for the next three years
Actuals Current Market
Figures as of August 3, 2010
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
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Alberta PPAs and long-term contracts provide solid base for stable earnings and support TransAlta’s low to moderate risk business strategy
Approx. target contracting level of 90%
Merchant contracting strategy targets 25% / yr
PPAs, long and medium-term contracts:
~70% of generation in 2010
Average contract life ~12 years
PPAs, long & medium-term contracts
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2010 2011 2012 2013
Contracted Open
Total MWs
92% contracted for 2010, leverage to power price recovery in key markets
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2010 2011 2012 2013
Contracted To be contracted Open
\
2010Contracts
2012 Contracts
2011Contracts
2010 Contracts
2011 Contracts
2010 Contracts
2009Contracts
2009 Contracts
Merchant MWs
Approx. levels only
Merchant MWs
Merchant hedging strategy designed to minimize impacts of adverse market conditions while allowing for upside potential
Approximate target level - 90%
~44%
~61%
~82%
Merchant Portfolio %
Contracted on Adjusted Capacity
AB: $65 - $70PACNW: $55 - $60
~81%2012
AB: $65- $70PACNW: $55 - $60
~86%2011
AB: $55 - $60PACNW: $55 - $60
~92%2010
Merchant Portfolio Contracted Price (As of July 2010)
Total Portfolio % Contracted
Year
Capacity adjustments
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Low case($5 NYMEX)
Medium Case($7 NYMEX)
High Case($9 NYMEX)
Earnings growth expected due to operational improvements and sustainable cost savings; outlook more positive with return of demand and higher natural gas prices
Leverage to enhanced price environment: 2009 - 2012
AB Prices: PNW Prices:
$45 - $55 $55 - $65 $65 - $75$35 - $45 $45 - $55 $60 - $75
Earnings per share:
$1.05 $1.10$1.25
$1.75
$2.50
$1.00
2009 2012
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Drive the base:• Targeting double digit comparable EPS and EBITDA growth• Approximately 92% contracted for 2010 providing a high degree of earnings protection• 89 - 90% fleet availability target for 2010• Cash flow from operations expected to range between $800 - $900 million• Energy trading expected to contribute between $40 - $60 million in gross margin
Green our portfolio:• New production expected from Kent Hills 2 (54 MW) expansion to come online in Q4 2010• Ardenville (69 MW) wind farm expected to come online in Q1 2011• Bone Creek (18 MW) hydro facility expected to come online in Q1 2011• Keephills 3 (225 MW) expected to come online in Q2 2011
Reposition coal:• Centralia transition planning underway to reduce GHG emissions and provide replacement capacity by
2025• Strong competitive advantages in Alberta to navigate federal government’s mandate to phase-out coal • Project Pioneer Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) underway, expected to be completed by end
of 2010
2010 Outlook
On track to deliver on our strategic priorities; well positioned for a strong second half of 2010
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Performance goals
Annual Metrics
4.8X
20.1%
57.7%
Annual Metric
$98 MM
$0.10
$8.76/MWh
Annual Metric
81.9%
Q2 2010
Annual Metrics
5.9X
24.7%
49.4%
Annual Metric
$57 MM
$(0.03)
$11.30/MWh
Annual Metric
82.8%
Q2 2009
Increased due to lower planned outages at Keephills and increased production from the acquisition of Canadian Hydro
>10%/yrComparable EPS Grow Earnings and Cash Flow
TBD$295 - $340Sustaining CapexMake Sustaining Capex Predictable
Maintained strong balance sheet, financial ratios and ample liquidity
4 - 5X
20 - 25%
55 - 60%
Cash Flow to InterestCash Flow to DebtDebt to Invested Capital
Maintain InvestmentGrade Ratings
TBD
>10%/yr>10%/yr>10%/yr
Comparable ROCETSRIRR
Deliver Long-termShareowner Value
Higher operating cash flow due to higher cash earnings
Decreased year-over-year due to less major maintenance activities in Q1 2010 and due to increased capacity
TBD
Decreased due to higher planned and unplanned outages at Centralia Thermal and the outage at Sundance Unit 3
2010 Goals
$850 – 950* MMOperating Cash Flow
90%AvailabilityAchieve top decile operations
1.0 by 2015Injury Frequency RateImprove Safety
Offset InflationOM&A/installed MWhEnhanceProductivity
Measures ReviewFinancial ratios
*Estimate revised to $800 - $900 million
25
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
2006 2007 2008 2009 Q22010
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%
2006 2007 2008 2009 Q22010
012345678
2006 2007 2008 2009 Q22010
Execute our plan while maintaining long-term financial strength and stability
Range:4 - 5x
Cash flow to interest
Maintain financial strength
Range:55 - 60%
Debt to capital
Range:20 - 25%
Cash flow to debt
$0.0$0.5$1.0$1.5$2.0$2.5
Credit Lines Utilized Credit Lines Available
Committed credit lines
June 30, 2009 June 30, 2010
$B
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$354$431$142$182EBITDA
$285$374$94$184Funds from operations
10,201
81.9
$0.29
$98
$0.23
$0.10
$51
$21
$55
$353
$582
Q2 2010
9,656
82.8
$0.29
$57
$(0.03)
$(0.03)
$(6)
$(6)
$14
$346
$585
Q2 2009
21,829
84.6
$0.58
$140
$0.18
$0.16
$36
$31
$99
$727
$1,341
YTD2009
23,115
86.7
$0.58
$272
$0.54
$0.40
$118
$88
$189
$757
$1,308
YTD2010
Availability (%)
Comparable earnings (loss) per share
Basic and diluted earnings (loss) per share
Comparable earnings (loss)
Operating income
Production (GWh)
Cash dividends declared per share
Cash flow from operating activities
Net earnings (loss)
Gross margin
Revenue
Results ($M)
Q2 2010 - Highlights
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(6)---Settlement of commercial issue, net of tax
$(0.03)
198
$(6)
-
-
$(6)
Q2 2009
$0.10
219
$21
-
(30)
$51
Q2 2010
1-Change in life of Centralia parts, net of tax
$0.16
198
$31
-
$36
YTD2009
219Weighted average common shares outstanding in the period
$0.40
$88
(30)
$118
YTD2010
Earnings (loss) on a comparable basis
Earnings (loss) on a comparable basis per share
Income tax recovery related to the resolution of certain outstanding tax matters
Net earnings (loss)
Results ($M)
Comparable earnings
Q2 2010
28
Net earnings
$51(4)
16
3
-
-
35
(15)
22
$(6)Q2 2010
$118Net earnings, 2010(10)Other
3Increase in income tax recovery
12Decrease in non-controlling interest
(15)
13
49
(16)
46
$36YTD 2010
Decrease in Energy Trading gross margins
Decrease in OM&A costs
Decrease in depreciation expense
Increase in net interest expense
Increase in Generation gross margins
Net (loss) earnings, 2009
Q2 2010
29
$(144)
(1)
(17)
(17)
(57)
(109)
$57
Q2‘09
$(36)
-
(13)
(29)
(123)
(143)
$272
YTD‘10
$(208)
(8)
(18)
(33)
(111)
(178)
$140
YTD‘09
$(92)Free cash flow (deficiency)
-Other income
(13)Non-recourse debt repayments
(15)Distribution to subsidiaries’ non-controlling interests
(64)Dividends paid on common shares
(98)Sustaining capital expenditures
Add (Deduct):
$98Cash flow from operating activities
Q2‘10($M)
Free cash flow
30
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Thereafter
CDN MTN US Notes
1
Minimal debt refinancing over the short-term provides ample financial flexibility
(CDN $M)
Based on June 30, 2010 FX rate of $1.0529 CAD/US
Debt profile supports balance sheet
1 1
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$155 - 175
$35 - 40
$5 - 10
$115 - 130
$310 - 355
2011e*
$150 - 170$125 - 140Major Maintenance
$40 - 50$20 - 25Mine
$5 - 10$10 - 15Productivity capital
$115 - 130
$310 - 360
2012e*
$120 - 140
$275 - 320
2010e
Routine capital
Sustaining
($M)
Sustaining capex slightly reduced due to changes in natural gas plant major maintenance schedule
2010 Sustaining capital
*Estimates provided at TransAlta’s 2009 Investor Day have not been updated.
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160 – 170*
$55 - 70
$0 - 5*
$55 - 65
Natural Gas and
Renewables
2,465 – 2,475
$135 - 145
$65 - 70
$70 - 75
Coal
2,625 - 2,645GWh lost
$190 - 215Total$65 - 75Expensed
$125 - 140
Total
Capitalized
($M)
2010 Major maintenance plan
* Natural gas fleet only
Major maintenance
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All projects tracking on time and on budget
$1233$15 - 25$8166Summerview 2
$ 772---$6053Sun 5 uprate
185
66
MW
$313$228 Total
$1131---$87Blue Trail
2012e Total2010e 2011e2009Completed
412
46
69
225
18
54
MW
$100$80 - 85$18Kent Hills 2
$484$40 - 45$4Bone Creek
$9885$20 - 30$225 - 245$231Keephills 3
$135 $95 - 105$27Ardenville
$68$20 - 30$25 - 35$5 - 15$2KI & K2 uprates
$20 - 30
2012e
$1.3B
Total
$445 - 495
2010e
$45 - 65
2011e
$282
2009
Total
In Progress
Growth capital
1. Blue Trail capital spend prior to 2009 was $26M2. Sun 5 uprate capital spend prior to 2009 was $17M3. Summerview II capital spend prior to 2008 was $25M4. Bone Creek capital spend prior to the acquisition was $23M which does not form part of our total project cost5. Keephills 3 capital spend prior to 2009 was $476M
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Advanced development
Over 600 MW of renewable energy in advanced development for TransAlta’s 2010 - 2013 pipeline
* TransAlta’s ownership** Based on initial estimates of Canadian Hydro
LOCATION PROJECT CAPACITY FUEL TYPE RESOURCE & TURBINE CAPEX RANGE PPA / MW SITE CONTROL Applied Secured SECURED $ MM LTC
Saskatchewan ANEDC 175 Wind TBD $420 - $470 PPA/LTCNew Brunswick NB - 1 54 Wind $100 - $155 PPA/LTCNew Brunswick NB - 2 54 Wind $100 - $155 PPA/LTCCalifornia Black Rock 1-3 87* Geothermal In Progress $450 - $500 PPA/LTCAlberta Dunvegan** 100 Hydro $500-$600 MerchantBritish Columbia Clemina Creek** 11 Hydro $30-$40 PPA/LTCBritish Columbia Serpentine Creek** 10 Hydro $30-$40 PPA/LTCBritish Columbia English Creek** 5 Hydro $10-$20 PPA/LTCOntario Royal Road** 18 Wind $35-$45 PPA/LTCOntario Yellow Falls** 8* Hydro $30-$40 PPA/LTCQuebec New Richmond** 66 Wind $180-$200 PPA/LTCQuebec St. Valentin** 50 Wind $150-$170 PPA/LTC
TOTAL MW : 638 TOTAL COST: $2.0 B - $2.4 B
20102010/11
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
2012
Projects in Advanced DevelopmentTARGET
COMMERCIALOPERATION DATE
2012
ENVIRONMENTAL AND PERMITS
20122013/14
2012
2012
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Macro issues impacting our industry
Having flexibility and options will create value given environmental, regulatory and technological uncertainties
Timing Wait for U.S. system to be determined Likely protracted process into 2010-11
Canada U.S.
StringencyAbsolute-based cap & trade with auctioningThermal fuel flexibility likely
Environmental protection under PPAs
Technology and efficiency for fossil plants, incl. CCS
Staged capital stock transition to cleaner sources
Timely offset acquisitions
Potential for EPA regulation with tough rule-based, prescriptive measuresSpecial consideration for coalWashington state executive order to reduce GHG emissions by ~50% by 2025
Commercial arrangements to manage merchant exposure
Fuel shifting at Centralia
Focus on geothermal growth
Response planning