Winner of the 2014 National

Planning Award

Towards an evidence-led approach to local intervention

Introducing theDiagnostic Approach to Intra-Metropolitan Spatial Targeting

What is ECAMP?

• Ongoing tracking of over sixty business

precincts tracked across the Cape,

using over seventy indicators of market

performance and location potential

• Enables evidence-led spatial targeting

and monitoring of local interventions by

local government

• Offers credible, comparative and fresh

market intelligence to inform

investment decisions

input‘THE IDEA’

INTERVENTION

CITY DATA

INDICATORStrack

update

ECAMP Diagnostic

Model

outp

ut

Skille

d labour

Transp

ortation fa

cilities

Highway

s and harb

ours

Proximity

to ai

rports

Infrastr

ucture co

sts

Land pric

es

Local

ince

ntives

Supplie

rs

Education le

vels

Existing b

uildings

Cost of h

ousing

Medical se

rvice

s

College

s and unive

rsities

Low co

st lab

our

Industrial

ly zo

ned land

Distrib

utors

Unskille

d labour

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Mea

n ra

ting

(3 =

ver

y im

port

ant)

Karakaya and Canel (1998)

Business location factorsCurrent ‘telescopic’ approach to local intervention

Skilled

labo

ur

Transp

ortati

on fa

cilitie

s

Highway

s and

harbo

urs

Proxim

ity to

airpo

rts

Infras

tructu

re co

sts

Land

price

s

Loca

l ince

ntive

s

Suppli

ers

Educa

tion l

evels

Existin

g buil

dings

Cost o

f hou

sing

Medica

l serv

ices

Colleg

es an

d univ

ersitie

s

Low co

st lab

our

Indus

trially

zone

d lan

d

Distrib

utors

Unskil

led la

bour

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Mea

n ra

ting

(3 =

ver

y im

port

ant)

Karakaya and Canel (1998)

Business location factorsLocation as a package of attributes

What do we measure?

MACRO TRENDS

• Economic growth• Regional trade• Building cost• Interest rates

LOCATION POTENTIAL

• Agglomeration• Room for growth• Urban management• Accessibility• Infrastructure• Catchments

• Building activity• Rentals• Vacancy• Sales churn

Indicator framework

Potential

LOW

HIGHLOW

GROWTH

Performance

HIGHOPPORTUNITY

TRANSITION CONSOLIDATIONRepositioning

Regeneration

Agglomeration

BlightConso

lidation

Congestion

Incip

ience

Pot

entia

l

Performance

Conceptual architecture:4-quadrant model depicting evolution of business node

Potential

LOW

HIGHLOW

Growth

ConsolidationTransition

Opportunity

Performance

HIGHClassification of business nodes based on stage of evolution

Potential

Performance

HIGH

LOW

HIGHLOW

Growth

ConsolidationTransition

Opportunity

Network upgradesPT upgrades

S21 p

artn

ersh

ip

Dev. restrictions

Land disposal

Visi

onin

g

Demand mgmt.

Business support

Public safety

Area coord. team

Public space

Intensification

Special rating area

Events

Info

-sha

ring

PPP-driven infr.

Fast-tr

ackin

g

Regeneration

Stabilisation

Rep

ositi

onin

gG

rowth M

gmt.

Broadband

Place marketing

Loca

tion

audi

t

Local area planning

Infor

mal tra

ding p

lan

Reduced parking reqs.

Density bonuses

Flex. land useIG C

lust

er

Land

acqu

isitio

n

UDZ

Skills dev.

Rates discount

Prioritisation framework for place-based intervention

How has ECAMP been deployed to date?

Application Lead agency/ depts.

Targeting of primary research initiatives, such as industrial and business retention and expansion surveys. Inter-departmental

Market feasibility analysis of City properties Inter-departmental

Targeting area-based interventions (e.g. financial and non-financial incentives) Inter-departmental

Local visioning and area planning Planning

Impact monitoring and evaluation of place-based interventions Planning

Modelling long-term location potential to inform infrastructure planning Inter-departmental

How has ECAMP been deployed to date?

Application Lead agency / depts.

Spatially targeting grant funding via Integration Zones CityNational Treasury

Locational assessment of flagship place-based projects, such as the Tech Precinct Mayor’s Office

Commercialisation strategies for public transport interchanges to support financial sustainability of Integrated Rapid Transit.

Transport for Cape Town

ECAMP as exemplary approach to promote evidence-led planning in Western Cape and other metropolitan governments

PGWC, National Treasury

Mitigating economic impact of electricity cuts by ‘red-lining’ priority business nodes.

Electricity department

Screening of all City capital projects against priority areas for bulk network and business environment improvements respectively.

Office of the City Manager

Business location intelligence (public portal)

• Offers credible, comparative

and fresh market

intelligence to inform

investment decisions

Unique data-driven view of our space economy now available via web-based portal http://web1/capetown.gov.za/web1/ecamp

Unique data-driven view of our space economy now available via web-based portal http://web1/capetown.gov.za/web1/ecamp

Download area profiles

Who is using the ECAMP Portal? (registered users)

Annual circular 2015

• Applying data science to simulate

spatial outcomes of alternative policy

decisions

• Medium-term growth management

• Long-term city structure plans

What’s next?Where to from here?

Geography

EconomicsData

Science

URBAN ECON.SPATIAL STATISTICSNETWORKS

AGENT BEHAVIOUR

SIMULATION

Inputs Data-driven decision support

Database managementOrganising, standardising spatial data into platform

Diagnostic toolCollating diverse data into

single heuristic model

Area-based instrumentsDesign/selection of

interventions

Financial instrumentsInstitutional structuresInfrastructureUrban managementRegulatory instruments

Administrative dataThird party dataFirm-level dataHousehold data

Open source dataModelling outputs

ECAMP PHASE 12013-2014

ECAMP PHASE 02011-2012

Location theoryExploratory analysis

Linear modelling

Inputs

Database managementOrganising, standardising spatial data into platform

Diagnostic toolCollating diverse data into

single heuristic model

Area-based instrumentsDesign, selection and spatial

targeting of interventions

Decision support toolSimulating policy outcomes

Location theoryExploratory analysis

Linear modelling

Cellular automataAgent-based

Probabilistic modelsNetwork analysisScenario-buildingSerious gaming Financial instruments

Institutional structuresInfrastructureUrban managementRegulatory instruments

Administrative dataThird party dataFirm-level dataHousehold data

Open source dataModelling outputs

ECAMP PHASE 22014-

ECAMP PHASE 12013-2014

ECAMP PHASE 02011-2012

Data-driven decision support

Testing commercial vehicle movements as a proxy for economic interaction between business nodes.

Identifying clusters

Network analysis to gain insight into ‘deep structure’ shaping spatial investment behaviour

Testing commercial vehicle movements as a proxy for economic interaction between business nodes.

Network analysis to gain insight into ‘deep structure’ shaping spatial investment behaviour

Medium-term infrastructure prioritisation as part of growth management planning

Pragmatic TOD (Dwelling units)

Medium-term infrastructure prioritisation as part of growth management planning

Overlaying infrastructure risk on 2032 land use scenario to prioritise intervention

• To enhance our

understanding of spatial

investment behaviour of

diverse urban development

actors

• To test impact of locational

attributes, policies and

exogenous events on

behaviours.

Pragmatic TOD (Dwelling units)

Gaming the space economy to understand interactive investment decision-making

Spatial development framework

Remove detail of peripheral (possible) future infrastructure,

emphasise infrastructure supporting inward growth

Prioritise existing well-located employment nodes over

‘aspirational’ nodes

High-level nodal strategy based on local assets, ownership/sector

dynamics and constraints

Create policy certainty by showing priority investment areas and

incentives

Show infrastructure cost surface to support inward growth message

Pragmatic TOD (Dwelling units) Long term regional structure planning

Thank YouClaus Rabe Claus.rabe@capetown.gov.za

ECAMP Portal: http://web1/capetown.gov.za/web1/ecamp