Tourism and air transport - common issues · The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) - A specialized...
Transcript of Tourism and air transport - common issues · The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) - A specialized...
Márcio Favilla Executive Director
UNWTO
Tourism and air transport
- common issues -
International Air Services
Negotiation Conference (ICAN)
Durban, South Africa
9 December 2013
The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
- A specialized agency of the United Nations (UN) and the leading international organization in the field of tourism. It serves as a global forum for tourism policy issues and a practical source of tourism know-how.
- plays a central and decisive role in promoting the development of responsible, sustainable and universally accessible tourism, paying particular attention to the interests of developing countries.
- intergovernmental organization with membership includes 162 countries and territories and over 400 Affiliate Members representing the private sector, educational institutions, tourism associations and local tourism authorities.
- encourages the implementation of the Global Code of Ethics for Tourism, with a view to ensuring that member countries, tourist destinations and businesses maximize the positive economic, social and cultural effects of tourism and fully reap its benefits, while minimizing its negative social and environmental impacts.
- committed to the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, geared toward reducing poverty and fostering sustainable development.
www2.unwto.org/en/content/who-we-are-0
International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, million
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
International tourist arrivals to reach
1.8 billion by 2030
1 bn
1.8 bn
1.4 bn
Inbound tourism by region of destination International Tourist Arrivals, million
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Asia and the Pacific will gain most
of the new arrivals
Africa
Middle East
Americas
Asia and the Pacific
Europe
International tourism by (sub)region of destination International tourist arrivals, average annual growth %
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
6.6
7.5
6.1
7.7
6.2
6.8
4.8
6.5
10.5
7.4
3.3
2.4
3.7
2.4
2.1
3.2
1.3
6.0 5.95.8
5.25.1 4.9
4.6 4.6 4.64.3
3.1
2.42.3
2.01.8 1.8 1.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
South
Asia
Wes
t and
Cen
tral A
frica
East A
frica
Centra
l Am
erica
South
-Eas
t Asia
North
-Eas
t Asia
South
Am
erica
North
Afri
ca
Midd
le Eas
t
South
ern
Africa
Centra
l/Eas
tern
Eur
ope
Ocean
ia
South
ern/
Med
iter.
Eu.
Caribb
ean
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
North
ern
Europ
e
North
Am
erica
1995-2010
2010-2030
South Asia to have the fastest growth (%)
International tourism by (sub)region of destination International tourist arrivals, average absolute change over previous year, million
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
4.7
2.8
4.7
3.1
2.5
2.8
1.2
0.8 0.8
0.5 0.5
1.5
0.60.3 0.4 0.4
0.2
9.1
5.9
4.8
4.4
4.1
3.4
2.01.7
1.41.3 1.2 1.2
0.8 0.7 0.70.5
0.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
North
-Eas
t Asia
South
-Eas
t Asia
South
ern/
Med
iter.
Eu.
Midd
le Eas
t
Centra
l/Eas
tern
Eur
ope
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
North
Am
erica
South
Am
erica
North
Afri
ca
East A
frica
South
Asia
North
ern
Europ
e
South
ern
Africa
Wes
t and
Cen
tral A
frica
Centra
l Am
erica
Caribb
ean
Ocean
ia
1995-2010
2010-2030
NE Asia to have the fastest growth (abs.)
NE Asia to be the most visited
subregion in 2030 International tourism by (sub)region of destination International tourist arrivals, million
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
41
98
112
28
58
14
81
36
127 5 4
14
4 3 28
112
169
154
70
95
61
98
58
2419
12 11
20
138 7
12
293
264
222
187
176
149
138
82
58
46
37 3630 29
22 2219
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
North
-Eas
t Asia
South
ern/
Med
iter.
Eu.
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
South
-Eas
t Asia
Centra
l/Eas
tern
Eur
ope
Midd
le Eas
t
North
Am
erica
North
ern
Europ
e
South
Am
erica
North
Afri
ca
East A
frica
South
Asia
Caribb
ean
South
ern
Africa
Centra
l Am
erica
Wes
t and
Cen
tral A
frica
Ocean
ia
1995
2010
2030
International tourism by (sub)region of destination International tourist arrivals received per 100 of population
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
62
47
42
38
15
9 9
28
8 86
21
3 42
1 0
81
71
63
48
2527
22
32
19
15
12
21
76
42 1
114
103
80
65
47 47 46
4038
2827 26
18
13
7
32
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
South
ern/
Med
iter.
Eu.
North
ern
Europ
e
Caribb
ean
Centra
l/Eas
tern
Eur
ope
Midd
le Eas
t
South
ern
Africa
Ocean
ia
Centra
l Am
erica
North
Afri
ca
South
-Eas
t Asia
North
Am
erica
North
-Eas
t Asia
South
Am
erica
East A
frica
Wes
t and
Cen
tral A
frica
South
Asia
1995
2010
2030
Europe to continue to lead in int´l arrivals
per 100 of population
Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East
and Africa to increase their shares
Africa
3%
Americas
23%
Asia and the Pacific
8%
Europe
63%
Middle East
3%
Middle East
6%
Europe
51%
Asia and the Pacific
22%
Americas
16%
Africa
5%
Africa
7%
Americas
14%
Asia and the Pacific
30%
Europe
41%
Middle East
8%
1980
2010
2030
International tourism by (sub)region of destination International tourist arrivals, average annual growth %
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
6.6
7.5
6.1
7.7
6.2
6.8
4.8
6.5
10.5
7.4
3.3
2.4
3.7
2.4
2.1
3.2
1.3
6.0 5.95.8
5.25.1 4.9
4.6 4.6 4.64.3
3.1
2.42.3
2.01.8 1.8 1.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
South
Asia
Wes
t and
Cen
tral A
frica
East A
frica
Centra
l Am
erica
South
-Eas
t Asia
North
-Eas
t Asia
South
Am
erica
North
Afri
ca
Midd
le Eas
t
South
ern
Africa
Centra
l/Eas
tern
Eur
ope
Ocean
ia
South
ern/
Med
iter.
Eu.
Caribb
ean
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
North
ern
Europ
e
North
Am
erica
1995-2010
2010-2030
Africa to grow much above world
average (2010-2030)
Average annual growth (2010-30):
- Global: 3.3%
- Africa: 5.0%
5.9% 4.6% 5.8% 4.3%
Asia and the Pacific to be also the
outbound region to grow the most
Outbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals generated, million
12
11088
308
1030
160
204
509
37
90
265
541
832
81
6
169
25
71
6
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Africa Americas Asia and the Pacific Europe Middle East
1980 1995 2010 2030
No major change in share by purpose of visit
International tourism by purpose of visit International Tourist Arrivals, million
Leisure, recreation and holidays
VFR, health, religion, other
Business and professional
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Travel between regions continues to grow slightly faster
than within the same region
International tourism by region of destination and origin International Tourist Arrivals, share, %
within same region
between regions
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Emerging / developing to surpass advanced
destinations before 2020
Inbound tourism, advanced and emerging economies International Tourist Arrivals, million
emerging economies
advanced economies
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Air transport will continue to gain market
share but at a slower pace
International tourism by means of transport International Tourist Arrivals, million
by air
over surface
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
250
500
750
1,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
What if assumptions change?
Tourism Towards 2030: global projection and sensitivity analysis International Tourist Arrivals, million
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Actual data 1980-2010
Transport costs continue to fall (scenario 3)
Central projection
Faster rising cost of transport (scenario 2)
A slower-than-expected economic recovery and future growth (Scenario 1)
Cost of air transport has strongly
decreased Wages vs airfares
time taken to earn the lowest Sydney-London return airfare130
21
5 3.5 2.7 1.9 1.70
25
50
75
100
125
1945 1965 1985 1995 2000 2005 2009
we
eks
source: Qantas, page 40 of www.qantas.com.au/infodetail/about/FactFiles.pdf
UNWTO and partners working closely with
stakeholders to move agenda forward
A number of meetings have taken place and three reports have
been prepared taking stock of and analysing the current situation:
For more information and download of reports, see
http://rcm.unwto.org/en/content/facilitation-tourist-travel
Visa facilitation: striking a balance
Visas provide essential
functions
Benefits of openness
security
immigration control
limitation of stay and
activities
reciprocity
revenues
=> however … visas can
be a constraint to int’l
travel and its benefits
tourism, but also:
doing business
trade and investment
infrastructure development
attracting and retaining
talent
education, cultural
exchange and ‘soft
diplomacy’
World Population Affected, 2008-2013
77%
6%
17%
75%
8%
17%
63%
16%
18% 2%
64%
15%
18%
3%
2008 2010 2012 2013
Request for traditional visa decreased from 77% to 64%
2013 Openness Index
Dark blue 0-10, Light blue 11-23, Yellow 24-39, Light green 40-69, Dark green 70-100
Destinations Improving Visa Procedures, 2010-2013
195-180
Improvements
•Niue
•Micronesia
•Palau
•Sao Tome and
Principe
•Djibouti
•Haiti
•Mozambique
•Azerbaijan
•Rwanda
•Guinea-Bissau
179-128
Improvements
•Burundi
•Togo
•Cape Verde
•Mali
•Uganda
•Guyana
•Lao (P.D.R.)
•United Arab Emirates
•Kenya
•United Republic of
Tanzania
127-75
Improvements
•Ecuador
•Bolivia
•Macao
•Armenia
•Sri Lanka
•Georgia
•Nicaragua
•Montserrat
•Tajikistan
•Mauritius
Drivers of Change
• 44 destinations significantly facilitated the visa
process (20 or more countries improved)
• Between 2010 and 2013 visa requirements were
facilitated for 5,930 destination-source market
pairs
• Significant changes (20 or more) were
predominant
• Most common change was visa on arrival (60%
of all changes)
87 States Represented at the 1963 Conference
Afghanistan, Algeria, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bolivia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic, Cambodia,
Cameroon, Canada, Ceylon, Chad, Chile, China, Colombia, Congo(Leopold-Ville), Costa Rica, Cuba, Cyprus, Czechoslovakia, Denmark, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Federal Republic of
Germany, Finland, France, Greece, Guatemala, Holy See, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Kuwait,
Lebanon, Liberia, Libya, Luxembourg, Madagascar, Mali, Mexico, Morocco, Nepal, Netherlands, New Zealand, Niger, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Republic of
Korea, Romania, San Marino, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Somalia, Republic of South Africa, Spain, Sudan, Sweden, Switzerland, Syria, Thailand, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Turkey, Uganda, Ukrainian
Soviet Socialist Republic, Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, United Arab Republic, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland,
United States of America, Venezuela, Yugoslavia.
UN Conference on Int’l Travel and Tourism
States agreed:
“Governments should extend to the maximum
number of countries the practice of abolishing,
through bilateral agreements or by unilateral
decision, the requirement of entry visas for
temporary visitors.”
Visa Facilitation in G20 Economies
• 5% to 25% international
tourist arrivals growth
• Up to US$ 206 billion in
tourism receipts
• Up to 5.1 million
additional jobs by 2015
Mexico G20 Leaders’ Declaration
The G20 Leaders recognized at their June 2012
Summit in Mexico the role of tourism as
“a vehicle for job creation, economic growth and
development”
and, furthermore, they committed themselves to
“work towards developing travel facilitation
initiatives in support of job creation, quality work,
poverty reduction and global growth.”
Visa Facilitation in APEC Economies
• 9% to 13% international
tourist arrivals growth
• Between US$ 62 billion
and US$ 89 billion in
tourism receipts
• 1.8 million to 2.6 million
additional jobs by 2016
Areas of opportunity for visa
facilitation: Recommendations
• Improve delivery of information (Availability and reliability of information – multiple languages, useful information)
• Facilitate processes to obtain visas (Tackle bottlenecks such as personal interviews, needed documents, wait times etc.)
• Differentiated treatment to facilitate tourist travel (For means of transportation (e.g. cruise ship passengers) or specific geographical areas or ports of entries)
• Institute eVisa programmes or visa upon arrival (If exempting from entry visa is not possible)
• Establish regional agreements (To move freely between member countries once admitted by one of them)
Connectivity
51% of international tourists arrive at their
destination by air air transport and tourism
are closely interconnected
Opportunity for open skies policies and
increased cooperation between tourism and
aviation authorities
Openness of bilateral Air Service Agreements
Index measuring the average openness of Air Service Agreements
[0 = most restricted, 38 = most liberal] | 2011 or most recent
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
New
Zea
land
E
l Sal
vado
rT
aiw
an, C
hina
N
icar
agua
A
ustr
alia
H
ondu
ras
Gua
tem
ala
Jam
aica
U
nite
d S
tate
s Ja
pan
Cos
ta R
ica
Dom
inic
an R
epub
lic
Trin
idad
and
Tob
ago
Can
ada
Pan
ama
Irel
and
Nam
ibia
C
hile
C
olom
bia
Bru
nei D
arus
sala
m
Per
u Ic
elan
d E
cuad
or
Sin
gapo
re
Arg
entin
a D
enm
ark
Bar
bado
s G
uyan
a H
ong
Kon
g S
AR
In
dia
Kor
ea, R
ep.
Bra
zil
Indo
nesi
a U
nite
d K
ingd
om
Luxe
mbo
urg
Net
herla
nds
Uru
guay
H
aiti
Sw
azila
nd
Mex
ico
Ger
man
y F
ranc
e S
urin
ame
Por
tuga
l V
ietn
am
Nig
eria
P
arag
uay
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Mal
aysi
a H
unga
ry
Sie
rra
Leon
e G
hana
C
roat
ia
Bel
gium
C
ape
Ver
de
Italy
E
thio
pia
Sw
itzer
land
S
outh
Afr
ica
Tan
zani
a Jo
rdan
F
inla
nd
Tur
key
Uni
ted
Ara
b E
mira
tes
Gre
ece
Phi
lippi
nes
Pol
and
Rw
anda
P
akis
tan
Sw
eden
A
lban
ia
Aze
rbai
jan
Mau
ritiu
s Z
ambi
a Q
atar
B
ahra
in
Nor
way
C
amer
oon
Mor
occo
B
osni
a an
d H
erze
govi
na
Bur
undi
Is
rael
M
alaw
i B
oliv
ia
Tha
iland
Le
bano
n S
eneg
al
Aus
tria
V
enez
uela
Li
thua
nia
Gam
bia,
The
M
ozam
biqu
e C
had
Mau
ritan
ia
Latv
ia
Zim
babw
e M
adag
asca
r S
erbi
a G
uine
a M
alta
C
ambo
dia
Sri
Lank
a S
pain
R
oman
ia
Om
an
Uga
nda
Ken
ya
Slo
vak
Rep
ublic
A
rmen
ia
Mon
golia
B
ulga
ria
Mac
edon
ia, F
YR
C
hina
U
krai
ne
Kuw
ait
Egy
pt
Côt
e d’
Ivoi
re
Geo
rgia
S
audi
Ara
bia
Bot
swan
a M
ali
Alg
eria
B
angl
ades
h K
azak
hsta
n R
ussi
an F
eder
atio
n Ir
an, I
slam
ic R
ep.
Cyp
rus
Mol
dova
B
enin
S
love
nia
Yem
en
Taj
ikis
tan
Nep
al
Est
onia
S
eych
elle
s K
yrgy
z R
epub
lic
Bur
kina
Fas
o Le
soth
o
Openness of bilateral Air Service Agreements
Index measuring the average openness of Air Service Agreements
[0 = most restricted; 38 = most liberal] | 2011 This index measures
the weighted average openness of all bilateral Air Service
Agreements (ASAs) concluded by International Civil Aviation
Organization (ICAO) signatories as registered in ICAO’s World’s Air
Services Agreements (WASA) database (2010 update). The weights
are the bilateral scheduled passenger traffic taking place under each
ASA. Regulatory data come from ICAO’s WASA database and
traffic data were obtained from IATA.
Sources: World Trade Organization, based on ICAO and IATA data
Ticket taxes and airport charges
Index of relative cost of access (ticket taxes and airport charges) to
international air transport services | [0 = highest cost, 100 = lowest cost] |
2012 or most recent
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Sw
azila
nd
Iran
, Isl
amic
Rep
. Lu
xem
bour
g P
uert
o R
ico
Cap
e V
erde
K
uwai
t B
otsw
ana
Bru
nei D
arus
sala
m
Om
an
Bah
rain
La
tvia
Q
atar
S
audi
Ara
bia
Indo
nesi
a T
aiw
an, C
hina
E
ston
ia
Phi
lippi
nes
Kor
ea, R
ep.
Nor
way
M
alay
sia
Trin
idad
and
Tob
ago
Vie
tnam
G
uyan
a U
nite
d A
rab
Em
irate
s N
epal
T
urke
y In
dia
Uru
guay
F
inla
nd
Zam
bia
Mal
ta
Bul
garia
E
gypt
T
haila
nd
Mon
golia
Y
emen
C
hina
H
ong
Kon
g S
AR
P
olan
d Li
thua
nia
Gam
bia,
The
S
inga
pore
S
wed
en
Alg
eria
Ic
elan
d H
ondu
ras
Leso
tho
Spa
in
Bur
undi
B
arba
dos
Chi
le
Pak
ista
n P
ortu
gal
Cam
bodi
a B
elgi
um
Par
agua
y D
enm
ark
Gua
tem
ala
Tan
zani
a C
osta
Ric
a M
oroc
co
Nic
arag
ua
Zim
babw
e R
oman
ia
Leba
non
Cyp
rus
Italy
G
reec
e M
alaw
i K
azak
hsta
n C
zech
Rep
ublic
P
anam
a N
ew Z
eala
nd
Slo
vak
Rep
ublic
M
ozam
biqu
e M
onte
negr
o R
wan
da
Nam
ibia
Ir
elan
d Ja
mai
ca
Rus
sian
Fed
erat
ion
Cro
atia
M
adag
asca
r H
unga
ry
Isra
el
Geo
rgia
M
exic
o M
aurit
ius
Sey
chel
les
Sw
itzer
land
E
cuad
or
Ser
bia
Mol
dova
K
yrgy
z R
epub
lic
Eth
iopi
a Jo
rdan
N
ethe
rland
s S
love
nia
Mac
edon
ia, F
YR
U
gand
a B
oliv
ia
Alb
ania
N
iger
ia
Sur
inam
e S
outh
Afr
ica
Ban
glad
esh
Ukr
aine
M
aurit
ania
G
erm
any
Hai
ti A
rgen
tina
Ben
in
Japa
n E
l Sal
vado
rT
ajik
ista
n F
ranc
e S
ierr
a Le
one
Bra
zil
Bur
kina
Fas
o C
amer
oon
Aze
rbai
jan
Ken
ya
Bos
nia
and
Sri
Lank
a C
olom
bia
Aus
tria
U
nite
d S
tate
s A
rmen
ia
Gha
na
Aus
tral
ia
Gui
nea
Côt
e d’
Ivoi
re
Mal
i V
enez
uela
P
eru
Can
ada
Dom
inic
an R
epub
lic
Sen
egal
U
nite
d K
ingd
om
Ticket taxes and airport charges
Index of relative cost of access (ticket taxes and airport charges) to international air transport
services | [0 = highest cost; 100 = lowest cost] | 2012
This index measures the relative cost of access to international air transport services based on the
level of airport charges, passenger ticket taxes, and value-added taxation. It reflects the costs
associated with a narrow-body and a wide-body passenger plane arrival and departure at the
major international airports in each country. Charges include landing, terminal navigation, and
passenger and security charges as listed in the IATA Airport and Air Navigation Charges manual.
Ticket taxes applicable to international travel were applied as described in the IATA List of Ticket
and Airport Taxes and Fees manual. Per-passenger charges were calculated by applying a 75
percent load factor to a typical seating configuration of each type of aircraft. Value-added taxes
(VATs) were calculated based on an average ticket price for each country, applied to half of the
departing passengers, because the VAT is normally charged only on itineraries originating in the
country concerned. A higher score indicates a lower level of charges and taxes.
Source: International Air Transport Association, SRS Analyser
Taxation
Trend to impose taxes on tourism and tourists
Higher taxes tend to translate into higher prices for
international and domestic tourists
Touristsarenotvotersindestinationsbut…createthejobsfor
the voters
Export sector competing with the exports of other countries
Tourism uses public goods, hence must contribute with its fair
share
Intelligent taxation, avoiding secondary negative effects
Leisure tourism shows higher price sensitivity
Tourism Towards 2030
• A broad research project in continuation of UNWTO’s work in the area of long-term forecasting initiated in the 1990s.
• Objectives: – Assist UNWTO Members in formulating policies and long-term strategic plans
– Provide a global reference on tourism future development
– Reinforce UNWTO’s role in agenda setting for tourism-related subjects
– Constitute a reference for UNWTO strategic documents, programme of work and activities
• Central in the study are the projections for international tourism flows in the two decades 2010-2030 – Data series on international tourist arrivals as reported by destination countries are
used as the key indicator, taking into account subregion of destination, region of origin, mode of transport and purpose of visit for the period 1980-2010
– The quantitative forecast is based on a causal econometric model with international tourist arrivals as the dependent variable and as independent variables growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a proxy for traveller affluence and business travel potential, and also cost of transport
• Further diversification of tourism products, although
some forms of tourism might reach saturation
• Demographic changes: – aging population
– change in composition of families
– Immigration / emigration
• Growth in VFR
• Increase in independent travel and ‘do it yourself’
• New opportunities offered by – Low cost carriers: broadening of market
– Internet: facilitating flexibility and transparency
• Use of non-hotel accommodation and 2nd home
Changes in markets: general
Changes in markets: shrinking world
• Continued growth of demand and supply
• Proliferation of destinations and source markets
• Increase in participation and trip frequency
• Also further away, within region and interregional:
– trips to other regions grow at faster pace (5.4% a year between
1995-2020) than within own region (3.8% a year)
• A truly global market has developed
– Economic Integration/Globalisation
– Cost of transport going down or growing at slower pace than
accommodation and other costs
– On the supply side: many destinations with ambitious expansion
plans
– Intensified competition
Outbound tourism to be highest in Europe and
still low in Asia and Pacific
Outbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals generated per 100 population
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
9
2
14
3
36
6
14
3
17
5
57
1722
6
24
12
89
25
61
12
1
21
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
World Africa Americas Asia and the
Pacific
Europe Middle East
1980 1995 2010 2030
Tourism Towards 2030 in one page
• Tourism Towards 2030 shows that there is still a great potential for further expansion in coming decades; emerging as well as established destinations can benefit from this trend and opportunity, provided they shape the adequate conditions and policies with regard to business environment, infrastructure, facilitation, marketing and human resources
• Along with opportunities, challenges also arise in maximising social and economic benefits and minimising negative impacts
Long-term tourism growth pattern: more moderate, sustainable and inclusive
World Population Affected, 2008-2013
77%
6%
17%
75%
8%
17%
63%
16%
18% 2%
64%
15%
18%
3%
2008 2010 2012 2013
The Least Restrictive Destinations
Openness: 100
Cook Islands
Dominica
Micronesia
Niue
Openness: 99-80
Haiti
Macao (China)
Philippines
Georgia
Hong Kong (China)
Mauritius
Turks and Caicos
Islands
Openness: 79-70 Fiji
Guyana
Montserrat
Seychelles
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
Vanuatu
Rwanda
Ecuador
Mali
Cape Verde
Guinea-Bissau
Mozambique
Nepal
Togo
Uganda
Timor-Leste
Samoa
Tuvalu
Palau
Maldives
Comoros Islands
Madagascar
Djibouti
G20 Reciprocal Policies, 2013
• Open reciprocity of 65% is above world
average of 16%
• Mutually closed policies are below world
average of 36%
Open Reciprocity – Selected Economic Blocs
18%
33%
40%
42%
43%
65%
78%
83%
99%
100%
16%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
PAFTA
NAFTA
APEC
SADC
CAFTA-DR
G20
ASEAN
OECD
ECOWAS
Schengen Area
World Average
Open Reciprocity, 2008-2013
100%
73%
46%
45%
100%
85%
79%
58%
100%
50%
38%
35%
100%
91%
83%
61%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Schengen Area
OECD
G20
APEC
Schengen Area
OECD
G20
APEC
Emer
gin
g ec
on
om
ies
Ad
van
ced
eco
no
mie
s
2008 2013
Open Reciprocity, 2013 (among members and between members and non-members)
1%
18%
20%
8%
22%
20%
14%
23%
1%
25%
18%
33%
40%
42%
43%
65%
78%
83%
99%
100%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
PAFTA
NAFTA
APEC
SADC
CAFTA-DR
G20
ASEAN
OECD
ECOWAS
Schengen Area
Open Reciprocity among members
Open Reciprocity between members andnon-members
Open Reciprocity, 2013 (among members and between members and non-members)
1%
18%
20%
8%
22%
20%
14%
23%
1%
25%
18%
33%
40%
42%
43%
65%
78%
83%
99%
100%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
PAFTA
NAFTA
APEC
SADC
CAFTA-DR
G20
ASEAN
OECD
ECOWAS
Schengen Area
Open Reciprocity among members
Open Reciprocity between members andnon-members
16% World average
Tourism in the global agenda
• G20 recognizes for the first
time Travel and Tourism as
a vehicle for job creation,
economic growth and
development, and commits to
work towards developing
travel facilitation initiatives in
support of job creation,
quality work, poverty
reduction and global growth. (G20 Declaration - June 2012)
• Rio+20 recognizes the
significant contribution of
sustainable tourism to the
three dimensions of
sustainable development,
its linkages to other sectors
and its capacity to create
decent jobs and trade
opportunities.