Topic 1: What Is Research? - kisi.deu.edu.trkisi.deu.edu.tr/sedef.akgungor/Research Methods 1_Fall...
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Topic 1:What Is Research?
Economics 394Introduction to Research Methods in Economics
Dr. Tavis Barr
These slides are copyright © 2007 by Tavis Barr. This material may be distributed only subject to the terms and conditions set forth in the Open Publication License, v1.0 or later (the latest version is presently available at http://www.opencontent.org/openpub/).
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Topic 1: What is Research?Topic Outline:● The Scientific Method● Research and Scientific Progress● What Is Research?● The Research Process: An Overview● Research in the Social Sciences● Thinking About a Topic
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The Scientific Method● Science aims to discover universal laws
about how the world works● Laws are a human interpretation of the
universe● The universe cannot tell us its laws● We make guesses● Are the guesses consistent with what we
observe?
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The Scientific Method● PreScientific Method: Deductive Logic
– State assumptions that you believe to be true– Use formal logic to deduce conclusions from
your assumptions– Assumptions are never tested
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● Scientific Method: Inductive Logic– Begin by observing facts– Proceed from observations of facts to universal
laws– John Stuart Mill: Method of
Agreement/Difference● When A occurs, does B occur?
The Scientific Method
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The HypotheticDeductive View● We start with
– (a) Universal law(s)– (b) Initial conditions
● We then show how an event we are trying to explain follows
● Then we test the generality of this
The Scientific Method
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The Scientific MethodThe Process:● Identify a problem that defines the goal● Formulate a hypothesis to locate the data
and solve the problem● Gather data to solve the problem● Test the hypothesis empirically
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The Scientific Method● Each research problem involves gathering
data to confirm or refute an existing theory● We are not supposed to let our prior beliefs
influence our conclusions● Because of this, we formulate our
hypothesis before we gather the data● We don't let the data alter our hypothesis so
we know we will confirm it
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Research and Scientific Progress● Karl Popper: Falsifiability
– A theory may be as follows:“If A is true then B is true” (Major Premise)“If A is true” (Minor Premise)“...then B is true” (Conclusion)
– This is equivalent to:“If B is false, then A is false”
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Research and Scientific Progress● Karl Popper: Falsifiability
– A theory may be as follows:“If A is true then B is true” (Major Premise)“If A is true” (Minor Premise)“...then B is true” (Conclusion)
– This is NOT equivalent to:“If B is true, then A is true”
– We can study B to refute A, but not to confirm it
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Research and Scientific Progress● Karl Popper: Falsifiability
– Any truly scientific theory must be refutable– Otherwise, it is just dogma– Example: “Breaking a mirror brings seven
years' bad luck”– Example: “Falling objects accelerate at a rate of
9.8 meters per second per second”
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Research and Scientific Progress● Karl Popper: Falsifiability
– The universe does not talk to us– So we can never confirm a theory, only refute it– A sound theory is one that has withstood many
attempts to refute it
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Research and Scientific Progress● Thomas Kuhn: Revolutions in Scientific
Paradigms– A theory is stated and then contradicted– A new theory is found that is consistent with
observed facts– Every new scientific paradigm is based on the
contradictions of the last one
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Research and Scientific Progress● Thomas Kuhn: Revolutions in Scientific
Paradigms– Science exhibits long periods of stability and
then has sudden, dramatic breaks● Geocentrism● Relativity
– Every new scientific paradigm is based on the contradictions of the last one
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Research and Scientific Progress● Thomas Kuhn: Revolutions in Scientific
Paradigms– Every new scientific paradigm is based on the
contradictions of the last one– Examples:
● The Solow growth model to Endogenous Growth to...?
● Velocity Theory of Money to Keynes to Rational Expectations to NeoKeynesianism to...?
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Research and Scientific Progress● The goal of scientific research is to test
current theories and develop new ones– Is the current theory consistent with the world?– Can we develop a new theory that is more
consistent with the world?
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● How do we decide whether a theory is refuted?– Example: Many standard economic models
assume everyone is gainfully employed● What would a Japanese person think of this
assumption?● What would an Ethiopian think?
– Example: Galileo argued that the world is round● How was his argument accepted/rejected?
Research and Scientific Progress
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Research and Scientific Progress● Imre Lakatos: Scientific Research Programs
– Science exhibits clusters of internconnected theories
– As each theory encounters falsifications, the assumptions change
– Progressive programs predict novel facts– Regressive programs add ad hoc adjustments
to explain away new things
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● Research begins with a question that the researcher is trying to answer– The question should be compelling to other
people beside the researcher● It is not just filling gaps in knowledge● It is not just an excuse for meditation
– The question should be answerable● “What is unique about the Ethiopian economy?” is
not a research topic
What Is Research?
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What is Research?● Research has a clearly articulated goal● Examples:
– Test a current theory– Add details to a theory– Replace a theory with a better one– Write a new theory where none existed
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What is Research?● Research requires a specific plan of
procedure– We need to know if the question is answerable
and how– We also need show that our method for
answering the question is acceptable (more later)
– We need to know that the research project is feasible in terms of time and money
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What is Research?● Research usually divides a problem into
more manageable subproblems– “What is the current state of the Ethiopian
economy?” is vague by itself– We could divide the economy into sectors
● By occupation: Agriculture, Household, etc.● By industry
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What is Research?● Research is guided by a specific problem,
question, or hypothesis– Research is not openended– It is sometimes okay for the hypothesis to
change along the way, but you should not do it lightly
● It may be cheaper to combine your new hypothesis into the same research project
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What is Research?● Research accepts certain critical
assumptions– Ex nihilo nihil: If you do not make assumptions,
you cannot make logical conclusions– Question everything, but question some things
more than others....
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What is Research?● Research requires the collection and
interpretation of data in attempting to resolve the problem that initiated the research– We need new information to learn new facts– In theoretical research, (e.g., math), that new
information can be a theory– Data do not speak for themselves; they need a
person to interpret them
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What is Research?● Research is, by its nature, cyclical, or more
exactly, helical– Every research project brings answers but also
new questions– Those questions, in turn, bring new research
projects– But hopefully we know something afterward
that we didn't know before
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The Research Process: An Overview
1.Research begins with an unanswered question
2.Research sees the goal in a clear statement of the problem• These first two steps attempt to clarify the topic
of research to say precisely what it is that we don't know that we want to find out
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3.Research subdivides the problem into appropriate subproblems
4.Research posits tentative solutions to the problems in the form of hypotheses• The statement of the problem is made even
more precise: We want to turn it into a set of questions with clear, testable answers
The Research Process: An Overview
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5.Research looks for data as directed by the hypotheses. The data are collected.
6.Research interprets the data, which confirms or rejects the hypothesis and provides an answer to the problem• In this stage, we find the answers, which can
actually be the most timeconsuming part....
The Research Process: An Overview
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Research in EconomicsAnd Social Sciences
● All scientific “facts” are given in terms defined by humans– “9.8”, “meters”, “second” are all characteristics
imposed on the world by the human mind● Still, they are not arbitrary
– We will not see objects fall at 3m/s2
● Social scientists disagree about how much people can define the world in a way that suits them
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Research in EconomicsAnd Social Sciences
● Sociologists, anthropologists: Structural Functionalism– Societies that are successful perpetuate themselves– The role of an individual in such a society is like a
part of an organism– Reality is socially constructed– Goals in life depend on influences of friends, family,
etc.– Preferences for food, clothes, etc. depend on others
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Research in EconomicsAnd Social Sciences
● Economists, political scientists: Methodological Individualism– Reality is objective– All people face requirements for nutrition,
health,etc.– Concepts like “demand” and “income” can be seen
in every society– We understand the structure of a society as one
that satisfies individual needs
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Research in EconomicsAnd Social Sciences
● People do not behave predictably in the way that objects do– A country is served by two airlines. One airline raises
its prices. How does the other respond?– The price of tulips rises relative to the price of roses.
What happens to the demand for tulips?● The bottom line: Much economic behavior cannot
be explained without a discussion of customs
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Thinking About a Topic● A research topic should seek to advance
the state of science– It should ask a question to which the answer is
not known– It should ask an interesting question– It should be as objective as possible
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Thinking About a Topic● New ideas are born from the contradictions
of old ideas● Think about an assumption in economics
that seems funny to you● The alternatives to the assumption cannot
be patently obvious● But they also have to be manageable
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Thinking About a Topic● Most economic theory was written for the
industrialized world● Does it apply to Ethiopia?● What theory might apply better to Ethiopia?● Does what we learn about Ethiopia have
value for other countries?
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Some Topics from Last Year
● Deforestation and its Impact on the Ethiopian Economy● The Cause and Extent of Food Insecurity in Ethiopia● The Impact of Underutilization of Hydroelectric Power in
Ethiopia● MicroFinance and Poverty Alleviation in Ethiopia: The
Case of the Tila MicroFinance Institution
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Some Topics from Last Year
● The Roles of Education to Reduce Unemployment● The Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Environmental Degradation in Ethiopia● The Impact of the WTO on the Ethiopian Agricultural
Sector● The Role of Credit in Reducing Unemployment: Case
Study of the Addis Ababa Area