Tony McMichael Emeritus Professor (Population Health)
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Tony McMichael Emeritus Professor (Population Health) National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health The Australian National University [email protected] Human Health: Bottom-Line Integrator of the Population, Resources and Climate Change Nexus 2013 Fenner Conference Australian Academy of Science October 2013
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Human Health: Bottom-Line Integrator of the Population, Resources and Climate Change Nexus 2013 Fenner Conference Australian Academy of Science October 2013. Tony McMichael Emeritus Professor (Population Health) National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Tony McMichael Emeritus Professor (Population Health)
Tony McMichaelEmeritus Professor (Population Health)
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health The Australian National University
Human Health: Bottom-Line Integrator of the Population, Resources and Climate
Change Nexus2013 Fenner Conference
Australian Academy of ScienceOctober 2013
Climate Change: Health Impact Pathways
Direct impacts via extreme weather events, heat-waves, worsened air pollution
Influences on social, infra-structural and economic conditions
Health Impacts Injury/death; mental stress Heat stress, deaths
Infectious diseases Under-nutrition Mental stress/disorders Trauma/deaths
Property damage; lower productivity; jobs; displacement; resource-related conflict and warfare
Influences on natural biophysical systems
Influences on biological and ecological processes
Ecological changes: food yields, water quality, mosquito populations, etc.
Climate Change
Glaciers; river flows; ocean temperature, pH, currents; sea-level rise; nitrogen & phosphorus cycles. Soil health; forests; coastal zones; biodiversity; etc.
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McMichael AJ, 2013
Indirect impacts: system-mediated
Climate Change Influences on Health in Australia• Already apparent: prior risks amplified by climate change• Uptrend in av annual no. of heat-days deaths, hospitalisations• Increase in no./severity bushfires injury/death, resp. hazard, mental health
• Current probable health impacts: but not clearly identified/identifiable• Rise in food-borne diarrhoeal disease• Altered air quality: ozone formation, aeroallergens• Mental health impacts, particularly in some (drying) rural regions
• Predicted future health impacts• Extreme weather events: injuries, deaths, inf. disease, depression• Water shortages: food yields, hygiene, recreation• Mosquito-borne infections: • Dengue, Ross River virus, Barmah Forest virus, • Japanese encephalitis, chikungunya (?), etc.• Thermal stress in outdoor workers: behaviours, injuries, organ damage; output• Physical and behaviour-based health impacts in affected rural communities
Heatwaves, Illness Events and Mortality Melbourne, Australia, 2009
SOURCE: January 2009 Heatwave in Victoria: an Assessment of Health Impacts. State of Victoria 2009
Maximum Temperature
Heat Stress
Heat Stroke
Dehydration
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jan: 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 Feb Date
Temp oC
250
200
150
100
50
0Jan 29-30: 60% increase in ambulance call-outs
126 out-of-hospital deaths (vs. 44 expected deaths)
Number of ambulance attendances
Ambulance attendances for heat-related illnesses in Metropolitan Melbourne: 19 Jan – 1 Feb, 2009
27-31 January 2009: maximum temperatures 12-15°C above summer norm
45°C
Winter deaths
Summer deaths
Ratio, Summer:Winter
Bennett CM, Dear KBG, McMichael AJ 2013
NCEPH/CSIRO/BoM/UnivOtago, 2003
Dengue Fever: Estimated habitable zone for Ae. aegypti mosquito vector, under alternative CSIRO
climate-change scenarios for 2050
Risk region for mediumemissions scenario, 2050
Darwin
Katherine
Cairns
Mackay
Rockhampton
Townsville
Port Hedland
Broome..
.... ..
Carnarvon.Darwin
Katherine
Cairns
Mackay
Rockhampton
Townsville
Port Hedland
Broome..
....
..Brisbane.
Current risk region for dengue transmission
Darwin
Katherine
Cairns
Mackay
Rockhampton
Townsville
Port Hedland
Broome..
.... ..
Carnarvon. Risk region for high emissions scenario, 2050
~ +1.0-1.5oC
~ +1.5-2.0o C
432,000 mt
2050 A2
2100 A2
Source of maps: P. Lehodey
1,727,000 m tonnes/yr
Skipjack tuna
Loukos H., Monfray P., Bopp L., Lehodey P. (2003) Potential changes in skipjack tuna habitat from a global warming scenario: modeling approach and preliminary results. Fisheries Oceanography, 12(4): 474-482
USARussia
Aust
2050 A2
2100 A2
c. 2000
Recent uptrend in adverse health impacts from cyclones, storms, wild-fires, flooding
Increasing annual deaths from heat-waves in several countries
Shifts in range and seasonality of some climate-sensitive infectious diseases (and their vectors)
Contribution to declines in food yields in some regions: risk of malnutrition-related child development
Adverse mental health consequences in various rural communities affected by drying
Health Impacts, Worldwide, Attributable to Climate Change
Australia’s Big Methane (burp) Emitters
Ruminant mammals have fore-stomachs to pre-digest cellulose in grasses and other plants. That generates ‘enteric’ methane – a potent greenhouse gas – in large volume. The rising demand for beef in developing countries puts further pressure on the climate system.
Dry WetNormal Range
Yield deviation
(%)
Water Balance Index, April-June (combines rainfall and temperature)
Relationship between late-spring normalised (soil) water balance (a function of temperature and rainfall) and barley yields in the Czech Republic during the past century.
Rate of development of pathogen ((plasmodium) within mosquito
Daily probability of mosquito survival
Path
ogen
dev
elop
men
t rat
e/da
y
Surv
ival
Pro
babi
lity
Temperature, degrees Celsius Temperature, degrees Celsius
Autoimmune disorders, and ricketts in children
Skin and eye damage, and skin cancers
Level of exposure to solar UVRLow
Health risks
High
% increase in daily mortality
New York
Maximum daily temperature oC
Equator1995-1997
‘Carrying Capacity’
Chichén Itzá
Copan
GUATEMALA
BELIZE
YUCATAN
MAYA LOWLANDS
(less rain, more groundwater)
MEXICO
EL SALVADOR
HONDURAS MAYA HIGHLANDS
(more rain, less groundwater)
Coba
Palenque
20oN
18 oN
16 oN
14 oN
Uxmal
N
PETÉN AREA
Caracol
El Mirador
Tikal
USA
S America
Chichén Itzá
Orange graph = coastal sediment: Titanium concentration in subannual micro-layers Blue graph = cave (Belize) speleothem (stalagmite: U/Th-ratio dating; Oxygen isotope)
Adapted from: Kennett et al. Science 338, 2012
Classic Maya Decline and
Collapse,700-1100 CE
‘Great Drought’: SW USA, Central America, S Peru
0.3
0.2
0.1
CariacoBasin,CaribbeanCoastlineTitanium
Classic Maya Civilization: Two High-Resolution Reconstructions of Rainfall
Cave stalag-mite,Belize
O16:O18
Daisy Napaltjarri Jugadai MuruntjiThis painting depicts the artist’s home country around Muruntji, well known for its abundant bush tucker and wild flowers. Acrylic on canvas.
Estimated global temperature (EPICA)
Australia: Estimated
relative dryland population,
based on 908 wide-spread
archaeological sites
Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), in Australia
Holocene
Years Before Present
New ENSO Cycle, evident from around 4K BP
Late Pleistocene
Smith MA, et al. Human-environment interactions in Australian Drylands … The Holocene 2008
908 archaeological sites Years Before Present
Sandy desert in Australian arid zone: Simpson Desert. Photo, May 2006, by MA Smith
Intensity of El Niño Events
Terminal phase of
Pleistocene
Williams A, et al. Revista de Antropologia Chilena 2008
Impact of El Niño events in Australian arid zone, based on archaeological records
5,000
Onset of current
ENSO cycle
Holocene
15,000
Persian Gulf
Map of Ancient Mesopotamia 200 km
URUK
Euphrates River
Tigris River
