Tom Burgess, NERC Vice President and Director, Reliability ... Business/TechnologyInnovation... ·...
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Probabilistic Risk Analysis
Tom Burgess, NERC Vice President and Director, Reliability Assessment and Performance Analysis
BPA Grid Transformation Workshop, March 20, 2013
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RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY 2
About NERC: Mission
• Develop and enforce reliability standards • Assess current and future reliability • Analyze system events and recommend improved prac7ces • Encourage ac7ve par7cipa7on by all stakeholders • Accountable as ERO to regulators in the United States (FERC) and
Canada (NEB and provincial governments)
To ensure the reliability of the North American bulk power system
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Reliability Assessment and Performance Analysis - RAPA
• Assess, measure, and inves7gate historic trends and future projec7ons to improve bulk power system reliability
Develop solid technical understanding of the reliability risks Insights that guide and inform en77es
Trends in system performance and events
Analyze and benchmark performance
Solu7ons, strategies, and ini7a7ves to enhance bulk reliability Technical reliability center of excellence resource
o NERC, regulators, and stakeholders
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RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY 4
Probabilistic Reliability Overview
Reliability Assessment Objec7ves:
• Align data/analy7cs of system performance
• Refine reliability of assessment
• Link with event analysis and experience • Develop insights, trends – recommenda7ons/ini7a7ves
Recognize Emerging Landscape:
• Genera7on resources, supply mix
• Transmission system development, u7liza7on
• Load characteris7cs Founda'on for a risk-‐informed ERO Enterprise
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Data-Driven Assessments
2010
2011
2012
• Develop reliability measures • Publish performance
trending on NERC website • Refine and implement risk
assessment tools
• 18 reliability indicators • First annual report • Iden7fy areas of highest risk
to reliability • Recommend standard
changes
• Issue annual state of reliability report
• Event-‐Driven Index (EDI) • Key Compliance Monitoring Index
(KCMI) • Condi7on-‐Driven Index (CDI)
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Equipment and System Performance
• ADS = Availability Data Systems Genera7ng ADS (1972) – mandatory repor7ng (2012)
Transmission ADS (2008) – mandatory repor7ng
Demand Response ADS (2011) – mandatory repor7ng
Spare Equipment Database (2012) – voluntary repor7ng
• Emerging informa'on/performance Frequency responses – generators, loads Events analyses – root cause Transmission circuits, transformer, relays
• Benchmarking, risk analysis and probabilis'c assessment
Drive towards comprehensive analysis and insights -‐-‐ promote ac9ons, ini9a9ves, and enhancements to reliability
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RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY 7
Supporting Data
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RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY 8
RISK
Measure Risk from Events
Likelihood
Impact
Avoid and
Mitigate
Learn and
Reduce
Accept High Impact
Low Frequency (including
CIP)
Severity Risk Index (SRI) Curve
Reporting Threshold
Inverse Cost/Benefit
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Yearly SRI
NERC Annual Daily Severity Risk Index (SRI) Sorted Descending with Historic Benchmark Days
10/29
2/2
8/27 4/27
9/8 8/28
6/30 4/4 7/11
4/28
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RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY 10
Risk Management with Complex, Highly Reliable Systems*
Lack of RAS Coordina'on
Lack of Real-‐'me SA
Unrealis'c Con'ngency Planning
Lack of Wide Area Understanding
Human Error
Near Miss
Abnormal
Rou'ne
Small Event
Moderate Event
Large-‐Scale Event
Study Errors
* Adapted from Human Error, by James Reason
Small errors, precursors…
…can lead to major events.
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RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY 11
Risk Patterns
Weather, excluding lightning; 17%
Unknown; 14%
Lightning; 12%
Human Error, 11%
Failed AC Substa/on and Circuit Equipment,
20%
Failed Protec7on System Equipment;
8%
Power System Condi7on; 4%
Foreign Interference; 4%
Other; 4% Biggest contributor to transmission severity: - Failed AC Substation Equip. - Statistically significant and positively correlated
AC Circuit Sustained Automa/c Outages by Ini/a/ng Cause Code
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Background
• Peak demand forecasts
• Resource adequacy • Transmission adequacy • Key issues -‐ emerging trends trends
Technical challenges Evolving market prac7ces
System elements/dynamics Poten7al legisla7on/regula7on
• Regional self-‐assessment • Ad-‐hoc special Assessments
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RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY 13
Risk-Based Approach for Setting Assessment Priorities
13
Environmental Regulations
Cyber Security
Transmission Siting
Change in Resource Mix
Reactive Power
Energy Storage
Economy Issues
1-5 Years 6-10 Years
Workforce Issues
Smart Grid
& AMI
Like
lihoo
d
Consequence
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RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY 14
Key Finding: Fossil-Fired Generation Retirements
Significant Fossil-‐Fired Generator Re/rements Over Next Five Years
• Cumula7ve re7rements between 2012 and 2022 • Slightly larger impacts than the 2011 generator re7rement study
• On pace with actual announcements
6 13
18 23
37 42 42 43 43 44 44 45
1 4
5
9
12 22 23 24 25 25 26
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Gig
awat
ts (G
W)
Confirmed Unconfirmed
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RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY 15
Key Finding: Resource Challenges in Texas
-‐4%
-‐2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
ANTICIPATED PROSPECTIVE ADJUSTED POTENTIAL NERC REFERENCE
Increased Risk of Capacity Deficiencies in ERCOT; More Resources are Quickly Needed
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RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY 16
Key Finding: Change in Resource Mix
NERC-‐WIDE: Renewables Represent Largest Growth of Installed Capacity Introducing New System Planning and Opera/onal Challenges
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Gigaw
aUs (GW)
Growth in Expected On-Peak Capacity
Hydro Pumped Storage Geothermal Wind Biomass Solar
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RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY 17
Key Finding: Change in Resource Mix
For the Northwest, Future Capacity is Largely Wind Resources—Added to the Exis/ng Hydro Energy Sources, Probabilis/c Energy-‐Focused Metrics Provide Basis for Risk-‐Informed Planning
Hydro Pumped Storage Geothermal Wind Biomass Solar
0 500
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
MW
Year
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Significant Increases in Transmission
Overall Growth of Transmission Infrastructure Responding to Increased Plans to Integrate and Deliver New Resources
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 21,000
90-‐94 91-‐95 92-‐96 93-‐97 94-‐98 95-‐99 96-‐00 97-‐01 98-‐02 99-‐03 00-‐04 01-‐05 02-‐06 03-‐07 04-‐08 05-‐09 06-‐10 07-‐11 08-‐12 09-‐13 10-‐14 11-‐15 12-‐16
Circuit M
iles
5 Year Outlook Actual Miles Added Over 5-‐Year Period
Historical average of transmission built within any given consecu7ve 5-‐year period between 1990 and 2012 is
approximately 7,000 miles
Higher-‐than-‐average 5-‐year plans
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RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY 19
Significant Increases in Transmission
Overall Growth of Transmission Infrastructure Responding to Increased Plans to Integrate and Deliver New Resources
Integra7on of Other
Genera7on; 3%
Integra7on of New Renewables;
24% Economics / Conges7on; 14%
Reliability; 52% Other 7%
Permiing / Si7ng or Environmental
Li7ga7on/Opposi7on
21%
Budget/Cost Issues 3%
Construc7on / Equipment Related
4%
Deferral Based on Reassessment of Load Growth
44%
Other 28%
Drivers for New Transmission Causes of Delays and Deferrals
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RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY 20
Emerging Uncertainty – Probabilistic-Based Analysis
• Common-‐mode failures and con7ngencies (beyond N-‐1) Increasing variable genera7on Significant system dynamics
Interrup7on of gas delivery / catastrophic failure of pipeline transporta7on and force majeure curtailments
• Increases in transmission limita7ons -‐ u7liza7on
• Fundamental genera7on-‐mix and load characteris7cs changes
• Determinis7c-‐based metrics – assessments insufficient
• Re-‐evalua7ng framework for reliability planning criteria Loss-‐of-‐Load and “1 in 10” Energy Dominated Regions
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Probabilistic Risk Assessment: Resource and Transmission Planning
• Genera7on & Transmission Reliability Planning Models Task Force (GTRPMTF) organized in January 2009 Composite G&T modeling methodology for assessing resource adequacy
• Successful execu7on of a long-‐term probabilis7c-‐based reliability assessment Significant step forward in determining future bulk system reliability
Aligned with resource/supply, transmission, and load characteris7cs
Framework for probabilis7c reliability indices (EUE, LOLH)
Probabilis7c-‐based work products/deliverables • Pilot completed last year; First results in June 2013
Create widely recognized framework that expands insights of bulk performance and relevant assessments that reflect system characteris'cs
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RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY 22