TO THE BLACK BOX AND BACK –

The TRANS Model

October 2008

2The TRANS Model

EXCLUSIVE

REVELATIONS

FROM CONCEPTORS OF

TOOL

THAT SEES INTO THE

FUTURE !Ottawa --

3

What does it model ? to replicate reality

The TRANS Model

ultimately: trips over the transportation networks

- persons - passenger vehicles

- bus - rail- auto

National Capital Region at present and under

any set of circumstancesin the future

4The TRANS Model

5

What is it all founded upon?

The TRANS Model

6

What are households made of ? Size : 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6+ persons

Age groups: 6 ranges

Number of workers : 0, 1, 2, 3+

Housing type: detached house vs. apartment

- # of non-workers with no worker (e.g. retirees, students)- # of non-workers with 1 worker (e.g. stay-at-home)

- # of non-workers with 2+ workers (e.g. children)

Household Composition

The TRANS Model

7

What influences a household’s mobility ? # of workers vs. # of cars

# of cars vs. housing type

# of non-workers vs. # of workers and # of cars

% of detached houses in neighbourhood % of low-income households in neighbourhood Population density in neighbourhood

Car Sufficiency

The TRANS Model

8

For what reasons do we make trips ?

Work : workplace, work-related

School : high school,18 or younger

University : university, college / CEGEP,other schools for 19+

Maintenance : shopping / banking, medical,pick up / drop off

Discretionary : leisure / sport, eating out,visiting relatives and friends

Travel Purpose

The TRANS Model

9

What makes households generate travel ? for work : # of workers

for maintenance : # of workers, # of non-workers,car sufficiency, % of detached houses,population density

discretionary : # of workers, # of non-workers,high car sufficiency, % of detached houses,density of retail+services in the area

for university and school : # of non-workers

What makes households not travel ? % of low-income in area, low car sufficiency

The TRANS Model

10

What makes a neighbourhood a destination ? for work : employment (# and density), population

for maintenance : retail, office, education and health employment, shopping gross leasable area, population, school enrollment

discretionary : retail and service employment, detached houses (over apartments),school enrollment

for university : enrollment, health employment for school : enrollment, population

The TRANS Model

11

3 levels of geography used, to take into account what happens in adjacent areas

The TRANS Model

- nearly 600 traffic zones …- … regrouped into 94 super-zones (clusters) …- … regrouped into 26 TRANS districts

What if an open field lies today where a newneighbourhood may take shape in the future?

e.g. population density, employment density, retail density

12

Walk / bicycle travel is considered explicitly for each travel purpose separately

The TRANS Model

for origins and destinations separately What drives walk / bicycle travel ?

car sufficiency (# of cars vs. # of workers in HH) age (< or > than 45) population / employment / retail density

at various levels of geography school / university enrollment % of low income households % of detached houses

13

The sequence of someone’s travel matters !

The TRANS Model

travel purpose going / coming back directly vs. stopping over purpose of stop-over location of stop-over

- geographically ( “on my way” )- with respect to start and end of one’s itinerary (element of familiarity)

14

i j1. Tours

i j2. Directional half-tours

i j

k

k

3. Chained trips

The TRANS Model

Breaking down someone’s travel :

15

15time of daycombosfor tours

5 times of day

for trips

The TRANS Model

Breaking Down Someone’s Travel (cont’d) :

Early Early

Early

Early Midday

Early

Early Late

Midday

Late

Midday Midday

Midday

Midday Late

Late

Late Late

Midday9:00-15:29

Late18:29-28:00

Early4:00-6:29

AM6:30-8:59

AM

AM AM

AM

AM

AM

outbound (→)

PM

PM

PM

PM PM

PM

PM15:30-18:29

focus on 9 relevant tour times of day, to convert into2 relevant trip times of day : AM and PM periods

inbound (←)

16

Choosing to travel at a given time of day is driven by :

The TRANS Model

varies depending on :

- level of car sufficiency- same variables seen earlier (population, employment, enrollment, density, etc.)

- travel purpose- outbound vs. inbound direction

- origin of travel- destination of travel

- travel duration (number of time periods spanned)

e.g. work trip from home in the AM, for the daymaintenance trip from work in the PM, for a short whilereturn home trip from maintenance in the evening

17

Mode

Autodriver

Transit

Autodriver

Autopassenger

Lo

t lo

ca

tio

nRail with walk/bus access &

egress

P&Rrail

K&Rrail

Bus withwalk access

& egress

P&Rbus

K&Rbus

Schoolbus

Lo

t lo

ca

tio

n

Lo

t lo

ca

tio

n

Lo

t lo

ca

tio

n

Autopassenger

Schoolbus

The TRANS Model

nestedlevelof modechoice

Choosing a mode (motorized modes)

Limited substitution driver / passenger

school trips only

Not enough data for separate bus / rail access sub-nests

Strong substitution of transit modes

18

Choosing a mode (cont’d)

The TRANS Model

two sub-models : one for AM, one for PM for each travel purpose separately driven by :

- level of car sufficiency- same variables seen earlier (population, employment, enrollment, density, etc.)- free flow auto time - auto (e.g. toll) + parking cost- transit in-vehicle time - fare + auto access cost- # of boardings - walk time + weight

- wait time + weight- transfer penalty

Different for different travel purposes

19

Choosing a mode (cont’d)

The TRANS Model

also driven by less standard variables :- auto delay coefficient

The difference in actual auto time vs. free flow time revealing the importance (statistically significant) attributed to reliability

- Transitway reliability bonusThe proportion of the in-vehicledistance of a transit triptravelled on the Transitway / O-Trainas a strong positive factorin favour of transit

Higher values for some work and discretionary trips

20

Choosing a mode (cont’d)

The TRANS Model

rail path ratio coefficient

modal transfer conservatismTransit improvements would attractfewer auto users compared to transit users attracted by highway improvements

Introduced to control the simulatedchoice of rail for very short portionsof longer-distance trips

21The TRANS Model

Trips are then assigned to the networks

School bus

X

P+R bus

Walk to bus

Auto passenger

Auto driver

Transit networkAuto networkTrips by mode

X

K+R bus

P+R rail

Walk to rail

K+R rail

X

X (bus leg)

X (bus leg)

X (auto leg)

X (auto leg) X (rail leg)

X (rail leg)

22

What do the networks look like ?

The TRANS Model

represented by 8,000 nodes and 23,000 links

- freeways, highways, arterials, collectors

- some local streets- ramps, interchanges- Transitway, reserved bus lanes, O-Train- Transitway stations (local, express platforms)

AM and PM

23

Which way do auto trips take ?

auto travel time as a function of

The TRANS Model

- traffic volume - # of lanes- posted speed limit - capacity- roadway type and level of interference

location (urban, suburban, rural)access to / from adjacent lotscontrol at intersections

function (highway, arterial, collector, etc.)

etc.

24

Which routes do transit passenger trips take ?

transit passenger trips subject to

The TRANS Model

- transit travel time

As a function of auto travel time or scheduleor posted speed limit (on exclusive facilities)

- frequency of service

fare structure (local, express, rural,including outbound and homebound rules)

- stopping patterns

- boarding / transferring inconvenience

25

And then what ?

time lost in traffic congestion

The TRANS Model

distances travelled overall speed etc.

traffic volumes on individual links transit passenger volumes on individual links,

on individual routes

. . .

Alternative AAlternative B

Alternative C

Alternative D

Alternative E

Alternative F

26

Is the model finished ?

Other time periods of the day could be added …

The TRANS Model

… perhaps toward full day simulations

peak spreading(time-of-day sensitivity to congestion)

transition to micro-simulation andactivity-based structure