Title Slide - up to 2 lines - nomura.com · Nomura Asia-Pacific Research June 2011 Please read the...
Transcript of Title Slide - up to 2 lines - nomura.com · Nomura Asia-Pacific Research June 2011 Please read the...
Nomura Asia-Pacific Research
June 2011
Please read the important disclosures and
analyst certifications on pages 41–46 gl.
Katsushi SAITO
Head of Asia-Pacific Industrials Research
Wenjie GE
Yankun HOU
Head of Industrials and Autos Research, Asia ex-Japan
Machinery
Factory Automation in China
NOMURA JAPANESE EQUITY RESEARCH
2
Source: Nomura
Value chain: Japanese/European makers competitive in upstream and downstream
Smile curve : Competitiveness of Japanese/Chinese companies
Value chain
SMC (pneumatic machinery)
Fanuc (NC equipment)
THK (linear guides)
Nabtesco (hydraulic equip.)
Siemens (NC equipment)
Haitian International(injection molding machinery)
Shenyang Machine Tool(machine tools)
Komatsu (construction machinery)
Kubota (agricultural machinery)
Daikin Industries (air conditioners)
Kone Elevator (elevators)
Schindler Elevator (elevators)
Profitability
Assembly(midstream)
Services(downstream)
Japanese/ European strong Chinese strong Japanese/ European strong
Core components(upstream)
Sany Heavy Industry
(construction machinery)
NOMURA JAPANESE EQUITY RESEARCH
Global machinery makers: (1) Factory automation
Source: Nomura
Industry Japan Europe/North America China/Taiwan/Korea
SMC(6273 JP) Festo(Unlisted) Airtac(1590 TW)
CKD(6407 JP) Parker Hannifin(PH US)
THK(6481 JP) Bosh Rexroth(Unlisted) Nanjing Technical Equipment(Unlisted)
NSK(6471 JP) Schneeberger(Unlisted) Hiwin Technologies(Unlisted)
Nippon Thompson(6480 JP) Schaeffler Technologies(Unlisted)
Fanuc(6954 JP) Siemens(SIE GY)
Mitsubishi Electric(6503 JP)
GSK CNC Equipment(Unlisted)
Mitsubishi Electric(6503 JP) Siemens(SIE GY)
Yaskawa Electric(6506 JP) Lenze AC-Tech(Unlisted)
Panasonic(6752 JP) Rockwell Automation(ROK US) GSK CNC Equipment(Unlisted)
Fanuc(6954 JP) Delta Electronics(2308 TT)
Yaskawa Electric(6506 JP) ABB(ABB SS) Delta Electronics(2308 TT)
Fuji Electric(6504 JP) Siemens(SIE GY)
Mitsubishi Electric(6503 JP) Schneider Electric(SU FP)
Toshiba(6502 JP) Emerson Electric(EMR US)
Omron(6645 JP) Siemens(ABB SS) Small local firms
Keyence(6861 JP) Schneider Electric(SU FP)
Mitsubishi Electric(6503 JP) Rockwell Automation(ROK US)
Kawasaki Heavy Industries(7012 JP) Bosh Rexroth(Unlisted)
Nabtesco(6282 JP)
KYB(7242 JP) Dongyang Mechatronics(013570 KS)
Toshiba Machine(6104 JP)
Fujikoshi(6474 JP)
Fanuc(6954 JP) ABB(ABB SS) Siasun(300024 CH)
Yaskawa Electric(6506 JP) KUKA(KU2 GY)
Kawasaki Heavy Industries(7012 JP)
Fujikoshi(6474 JP)
Jiangsu Hengli Highpressure
Oilcylinder(Unlisted)
Wuhan Huazhong Numerical
Control(300161 CH)
Wuhan Huazhong Numerical
Control(300161 CH)
Hydraulic equipment
Robots
Ball screws
Linear guides
Pneumatic equipment
NC equipment
Servomotors
Inverters
Control equipment
3
NOMURA JAPANESE EQUITY RESEARCH
Global machinery makers: (2) Other machinery
Source: Nomura
Industry Japan Europe/North America China/Taiwan/Korea
Fuji Machine Mfg(6134 JP) Siemens(SIE GY) Torch(Unlisted)
Panasonic(6752 JP) Phillips Topaz(PVH US)
Juki(6440 JP)
Yamaha Motor(7272 JP)
Amada(6113 JP) Trumpf(Unlisted)
Jiangsu Yawei Machine Tool(002559 CH)
Yamazaki Mazak(Unlisted) Gildemeister(GIL GY) Shenyang Machine Tool(000410 CH)
Okuma(6103 JP) MAG(Unlisted) Dalian Machine Tool(Unlisted)
Moriseiki(6141 JP) Schular(Unlisted) Hyundai Wia(011210 KS)
Makino Milling Machine(6135 JP) Haaz(Unlisted) Doosan Infracore(042670 KS)
Amada(6113 JP) Heller(Unlisted)
Sumitomo Heavy Industries(6302 JP) Arburg(Unlisted) Haitian International(1882 HK)
Nissei Plastic Industrial(6284 JP) Husky(HSE CN) Zhenxiong(57 HK)
Fanuc(6954 JP)
Japan Stel Works(5631 JP)
Toshiba Machine(6104 JP)
Komatsu(6301 JP) Caterpillar(CAT US) Doosan Infracore(042670 KS)
Hitachi Construction Machinery(6305 JP)Volvo(VOLVB SS) Hyundai Heavy(009540 KS)
Kobe Steel(Kobelco Construction Sany Heavy Industry(600031 CH)
Machinery, 5406 JP) Lonking(3339 HK)
Zoomlion(1157 HK)
Kubota(6326 JP) John Deere(DE US) First Tractor(38 HK)
Iseki(6310 JP) New Holland(Unlisted) Foton Lovol Heavy Industries(Unlisted)
Yanmar(Unlisted)
Injection molding
machines
Construction machinery
Agricultural machinery
Jiangsu JinFangYuan CNC
Machine(Unlisted)
Chip mounter
Sheet metal processing
machines
Machine tools
4
NOMURA JAPANESE EQUITY RESEARCH
What drives China FA?
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Beijing Shanghai
(RMB/Month)
Shanghai and Beijing minimum wages0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Beijing
Shanghai
Shanghai and Beijing minimum wages(%y-y) (%)
(CY)Source: CEIC, Nomura
5
NOMURA JAPANESE EQUITY RESEARCH
FA level in China (NC Ratio)
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
05/1 06/1 07/1 08/1 09/1 10/1 11/1
(kUnit) (kUnit)Non-NC machine tools output(LHS)
NC machine tools output(RHS)
(CY)
10
15
20
25
30
35 China Machine Tools NC ratio (Monthly)
198828%
201083%
201029%
0
20
40
60
80
100
76 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08
(%)
(CY)
NC ratio = machine tools equipped with NC systems / total machine tools (volume basis)
Japan
China
(%)
Source: Japan Machine Tools Association, CEIC, Nomura8
NOMURA JAPANESE EQUITY RESEARCH
Japan/China NC machine tools output
0
50
100
150
200
250
70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98 02 06 10
Japan NC Machine Tools Output
China NC Machine Tools output
(kUnit)
(CY)
9
Source: Japan Machine Tools Association, CEIC, Nomura
NOMURA JAPANESE EQUITY RESEARCH
Pricing image
(made in Japan)
High grade/specialized 120-150
High grade/mass 100
production
Medium grade/mass 50-70
production
Low-priced ~30
Note: Prices are rough estimates.
Source: Nomura
South Korea
China(Domestic)
Germany/Switzerland
Japan/Germany
Taiwan
Japan is the leading exporter of machine tools to China
Demand structure Chinese imports of machine tools by origin
日本
台湾
ドイツ
アメリカ
韓国
0
10
20
30
40
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
(%)
(CY)
Japan
Taiwan
Germany
US
South Korea
Source: Nomura
10
Source: Nomura based on data from Japan Machine Tools Association
Source: Nomura based on interviews
(Made in Japan =100)
NOMURA JAPANESE EQUITY RESEARCH
Fanuc: Top share for NC equipment in China
Market share for NC equipment Total sales by region (FY10E)
Note: Volume basis. FY08 Nomura estimates.
Source: Nomura
(%) Fanuc's
shareMajor competitors
Japan 70 Mitsubishi Electric
North America 30 Siemens
Europe 36Siemens,
Heidenhain(Germany)
Korea and Taiwan 80 Mitsubishi Electric
China 50 Siemens, Mitsubishi Electric
India 50 Siemens
World total 50 Siemens
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Fanuc
clients
Others
Japan
14%
Europe
12%
The
Americas
13%
Others
Factoring
in indirect
exports
by clients
Source: Nomura
Japan
25%Asia
52%
Asia
60%
The
Americas
12%
Europe
10%
11
NOMURA JAPANESE EQUITY RESEARCH
Chinese largest maker: Shenyang Machine Tool
Source: Nomura based on company material
12
NOMURA JAPANESE EQUITY RESEARCH
Source: Nomura based on company material
Japan
Japan
Japan
Germany
TaiwanHydraulic cylinder
Bearing
Ball screw
NC equipmentServo motor
Linear guide
ItalyTool chuck
Shenyang Machine Tool: Origin of key components
13
NOMURA JAPANESE EQUITY RESEARCH
SMC: Top share for pneumatic equipment in China
Market share in China (FY 10) Sales by region (FY11E)
Source: Nomura
China
12%
Other Asia
15%
Others
Europe
16%
Japan
41%
North
America
13%
SMC, 37%
Airtac, 14%
Festo, 13%
CKD, 4%
Others, 32%
China
Pneumatic Equipment
Market (2010)
21
NOMURA JAPANESE EQUITY RESEARCH
FA level in China (Robots)
Source: International Federation of Robotics, Nomura
22
0
2
4
6
8
10
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
North America
Japan
Germany
South Korea
(Unit)
8.1Unit
6.6Unit
Welding robots installed of every 1,000 automobile produced
5.6Unit
(CY)0
1
2
3
4
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
China
(Unit)
3.4 Unit
Robots installed of every 1,000 automobile produced
(CY)
Assuming half of the installments are welding robots
NOMURA JAPANESE EQUITY RESEARCH
FA level in China (Robots)
100
50–70
10–50
0
20
40
60
80
100
Japan/US/European companies' plants in
industrialized nations
Japan/US/European companies' plants in
China
Chinese companies' plants in China
Welding robots per line at plants of Japanese/European automakers
located in industrialized nations indexed at 100
Source: Nomura based on interviews
25
NOMURA JAPANESE EQUITY RESEARCH
Source: Nomura
Industrial Robot(Siasun): Components are from Japan
29
NOMURA JAPANESE EQUITY RESEARCH
Appendix:
iPad aluminum body is machined by Fanuc machine tool
36
Source: Nomura
NOMURA JAPANESE EQUITY RESEARCH
39
Excavators in China: Komatsu is #1 with premium prices
Excavator market share in China (over 6t, CY2010)
Source: Nomura
Doosan Infracore
(Korea)
12%
Hyundai Heavy
(Korea)
10%
Kobelco (Japan)
10%
Sany Heavy
(China)
10%
Caterpillar (US)
7%
Volvo (Lingong)
(Sweden/China)
4%
Other
11%
2010
hydraulic
excavator
market shares
Komatsu
(Japan)
16%
Hitachi Construction Machinery
(Japan)
11%
Lingong
(China)
3%
Sunward
(China)
2%
NOMURA JAPANESE EQUITY RESEARCH
Hydraulic equipment controls the movement of hydraulic
excavators
Travel motor
(Nabtesco)
Engine
(Komatsu)
Hydraulic pump
(Kawasaki)Hydraulic valve
(Kawasaki)
Swing motor
(Toshiba)
Cylinder
(KYB)
Forward /
reverse motion
Rotary motion
Extension /
retraction and
digging motion
of arm
40Source: Nomura based on company material