Timing is Everything

TiVo is also a major player in television market research

• Stop/Watch research service examines the commercial viewing habits of 4.4 million U.S. households

• Measures the rate at which ads are skipped

• Provides insight about the stickiness of TV campaigns

3

Bowflex was the #1 watched ad in June 2007 by targeting the right audience at the right time

4

• Placed most of its ads on pro wrestling channels

• Wrestling skews disproportionately to young male viewers

• Placed ads in June prior to summer swimming season

* Tivo Stop/Watch Reasearch, June 2007

Bowflex became #1 watched ad in June 2007 by targeting the right audience at the right time

What Tivo’s Stop/Watch teaches us

• Top performing ads not necessarily the most creative

• Far more likely to be direct selling ads

• Relevance appears to trump creativity

5

Why is timing so important?

We Know From Research That There Are small Windows of Opportunity When Our Habits Are Up For Grabs

Routine RewardCue

7The Power of Habit, Charles Duhigg, 2012

What happens in these instances is that..

• People are forced to make conscious decisions again

• This explains why vacations are often the best time to start new habits

8The Power of Habit, Charles Duhigg, 2012

There are a variety of different life events that naturally disrupt our cues

When We..

• Marry

• Buy new house

• Divorce

9“Life Status Changes and Changes in Consumer Preferences and Satisfaction”, Journal of Consumer Research 11, no. 3 (1984): 784-94, Alan Andreason

We are more likely to..

Buy new type of coffee

Buy different kind of cereal

Buy different brand of beer

But the arrival of a new child results in arguably the greatest cue changes of all

10

And these changes have enormous financial implications

• Avg. parent spends $6,800 on baby items before a child’s 1st birthday

• Disney estimates North American baby market to be $36B/year

• What’s more, purchase convenience becomes the #1 decision driver

• This explains why companies offer free gift bags to new mothers

11The Power of Habit, Charles Duhigg, 2012

• Pregnancy prediction algorithm revealed that pregnant women buy items in

specific chronological order

• Model became so precise that Target could predict delivery dates within a two

week window

• And the investment paid off

– Target’s sales grew from $44 billion to $65 billion from 2002-2009

12

Given the stakes, Target decided that approaching new moms in maternity wards was far too late

The Power of Habit, Charles Duhigg, 2012

Timing is critical in other domains as well

Enter Joe Girard, the World’s Greatest Salesman

• Born in 1928

• A high school dropout, he bounced around from job to job

• Got his first sales job at age 35

• Recognized by Guinness Book of World Records as world’s greatest salesman - averaging 812 car sales per year for 16 years (1963-1977)

14How to Sell Anything to Anybody, Joe Girard with Stanley Brown, 2006

A sample of tactics Joe used to ensure that his customers were ready to buy

• Cold called customers to see if they were shopping for a new car. If not, he asked when they would be and called them back then

• Created a master filing system that alerted him when pre-qualified leads were approaching the end of their leases

• Activated satisfied customers by offering them a $50 bonus for each customer referral that resulted in a sale

• Incentivized loan agents to make him aware when their clients were arranging car financing so he could intervene and sell them a Chevy

• Incentivized insurance claims agents and repair shops to tell him when their customers total their cars

15How to Sell Anything to Anybody, Joe Girard with Stanley Brown, 2006

Summary

• Timing is critical because the windows of opportunity for behavior change are small

• We know from research that the potential for behavior change is greatest when traditional cues are no longer present

• Savvy companies develop mechanisms for spotting these customers and engaging with them

• Promotional efforts that fail to acknowledge these windows have the potential to squander resources

16