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SouthwestPowerPool SPPorg southwest-power-poolHelping our members work together to keep the lights on... today and in the future.
1
Fall 2019Quarterly Report
2MMU
Fall 2019 highlights
• Average hourly load up four percent
• Wind generation capacity climbed by 600 MW
• Energy prices and gas costs decreased
• Real-time make-whole payments increased
• Summary of report on rate pancaking and unreserved use
3MMU
Overall load increased
20
25
30
35
40
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 '18 '19
Ave
rag
e ho
urly
load
(GW
h)
2017 2018 2019 Fall
4MMU
Warmer September/colder October
0
100
200
300
400
500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 '18 '19
Co
olin
g d
egre
e d
ays
2017 2018 2019 30 year avg
0
300
600
900
1,200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 '18 '19
Hea
ting
deg
ree
day
s
2017 2018 2019 30 year avg
5MMU
Generation increased
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Sep18
Oct18
Nov18
Dec18
Jan19
Feb19
Mar19
Apr19
May19
Jun19
Jul19
Aug19
Sep19
Oct19
Nov19
2017 '18 '19
Gen
erat
ion
(TW
h)
Wind Solar Renewable Nuclear Hydro Coal Gas, combined cycle Gas, simple cycle Other
Fall
6MMU
Coal generation continued decline
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Sep18
Oct18
Nov18
Dec18
Jan19
Feb19
Mar19
Apr19
May19
Jun19
Jul19
Aug19
Sep19
Oct19
Nov19
2017 '18 '19
Nuclear Wind Coal Gas, combined cycle Gas, simple cycle
Fall
7MMU
Virtuals set prices more frequently in day-ahead market
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Sep18
Oct18
Nov18
Dec18
Jan19
Feb19
Mar19
Apr19
May19
Jun19
Jul19
Aug19
Sep19
Oct19
Nov19
2017 '18 '19
Perc
ent o
f int
erva
ls o
n th
e m
arg
in
Virtual Other Gas, simple cycle Gas, combined cycle Coal Wind
Fall
8MMU
Wind set prices more frequently in real-time market
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Sep18
Oct18
Nov18
Dec18
Jan19
Feb19
Mar19
Apr19
May19
Jun19
Jul19
Aug19
Sep19
Oct19
Nov19
2017 '18 '19
Perc
ent o
f int
erva
ls o
n th
e m
arg
in
Other Gas, simple cycle Gas, combined cycle Coal Wind
Fall
9MMU
Wind capacity continued to grow
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
5
10
15
20
25
Sep18
Oct18
Nov18
Dec18
Jan19
Feb19
Mar19
Apr19
May19
Jun19
Jul19
Aug19
Sep19
Oct19
Nov19
2017 '18 '19
Cap
acity
fact
or
Win
d c
apac
ity (G
W)
Wind capacity Real-time capacity factor Day-ahead capacity factor
Fall
10MMU
Outages have decreased
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Sep18
Oct18
Nov18
Dec18
Jan19
Feb19
Mar19
Apr19
May19
Jun19
Jul19
Aug19
Sep19
Oct19
Nov19
2017 '18 '19
GW
h
Coal Gas, CC Gas, SC Hydro Nuclear Oil Other Renewable WindFall total
11MMU
Prices continued to fall
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
Sep18
Oct18
Nov18
Dec18
Jan19
Feb19
Mar19
Apr19
May19
Jun19
Jul19
Aug19
Sep19
Oct19
Nov19
2017 '18 '19
Gas
pri
ce ($
/MM
Btu
)
LMP
($/M
Wh)
Day-ahead price Real-time price Gas cost
Fall average
12MMU
Make-whole payments (RUC) increased
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
Sep18
Oct18
Nov18
Dec18
Jan19
Feb19
Mar19
Apr19
May19
Jun19
Jul19
Aug19
Sep19
Oct19
Nov19
2017 '18 '19
Mak
e-w
hole
pay
men
ts ($
mill
ions
)
Wind Renewable Nuclear Hydro Coal Gas, combined cycle Gas, simple cycle Other
Fall total
13MMU
Negative price intervals increased
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Sep18
Oct18
Nov18
Dec18
Jan19
Feb19
Mar19
Apr19
May19
Jun19
Jul19
Aug19
Sep19
Oct19
Nov19
2017 '18 '19
Perc
ent
neg
ativ
e p
rice
inte
rval
s
LMP -$0.01 to -$25.00 LMP -$25.01 to -$50.00 LMP less than -$50.00
Fall average
day-ahead market
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Sep18
Oct18
Nov18
Dec18
Jan19
Feb19
Mar19
Apr19
May19
Jun19
Jul19
Aug19
Sep19
Oct19
Nov19
2017 '18 '19
Perc
ent
neg
ativ
e p
rice
inte
rval
s
LMP -$0.01 to -$25.00 LMP -$25.01 to -$50.00 LMP less than -$50.00
Fall average
real-time market
14MMU
Real-time breached intervals increased
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Sep18
Oct18
Nov18
Dec18
Jan19
Feb19
Mar19
Apr19
May19
Jun19
Jul19
Aug19
Sep19
Oct19
Nov19
2017 '18 '19
Intervals with breaches Intervals with binding only Uncongested intervals
Fall average
15MMU
Congestion pattern similar between markets
16MMU
Prices vary across footprint
19.68
18.43
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
Pric
e ($
/MW
h)
Day-ahead LMP SPP day-ahead average Real-time LMP SPP real-time average
17MMU
High congestion in Oklahoma
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
Perc
ent c
ong
este
d
Shad
ow
pri
ce ($
/MW
h)
Real-time average shadow price Day-ahead average shadow priceReal-time percent intervals congested Day-ahead percent intervals congested
18MMU
Virtual transactions continued to grow
0%
6%
12%
18%
24%
Sep18
Oct18
Nov18
Dec18
Jan19
Feb19
Mar19
Apr19
May19
Jun19
Jul19
Aug19
Sep19
Oct19
Nov19
2017 '18 '19
Cle
ared
vir
tual
s as
per
cent
of l
oad
Cleared virtuals bids as percent of load Cleared virtual offers as percent of load
Fall average
19MMU
Most virtuals by financial-only participants
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Sep18
Oct18
Nov18
Dec18
Jan19
Feb19
Mar19
Apr19
May19
Jun19
Jul19
Aug19
Sep19
Oct19
Nov19
2017 '18 '19
GW
h
Financial only owners demand bids Resource/load owner demand bidsFall average
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Sep18
Oct18
Nov18
Dec18
Jan19
Feb19
Mar19
Apr19
May19
Jun19
Jul19
Aug19
Sep19
Oct19
Nov19
2017 '18 '19
GW
h
Financial only owners supply offers Resource/load owner supply offersFall average
20MMU
TCRs are underfunded
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
-$40
$0
$40
$80
$120
$160
$200
$240
Dec18
Jan19
Feb19
Mar19
Apr19
May19
Jun19
Jul19
Aug19
Sep19
Oct19
Nov19
2017 '18 '19
Fund
ing
per
cent
Mill
ions
Day-ahead revenue Transmission congestion right funding Surplus/shortfall Funding percent
Fall total
21MMU
ARR funding
0%
40%
80%
120%
160%
200%
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
Dec18
Jan19
Feb19
Mar19
Apr19
May19
Jun19
Jul19
Aug19
Sep19
Oct19
Nov19
2017 '18 '19
Fund
ing
per
cent
Mill
ions
Transmission congestion right revenue Auction revenue right funding Surplus Funding percent
Fall total
22MMU
OMS-RSC Seams Discussion
23MMU
Unreserved use
• Unreserved use charges• Transmission customer does not reserve
adequate transmission service to cover its load obligation
• Charges are punitive in nature• Can affect load on the seam during
transmission outages• Charge could be assessed by neighboring
transmission provider
24MMU
Unreserved use
• Unreserved use analysis• SPP
• January 2017 – June 2019: $770,000• MISO
• 2017 and 2018: $610,000
• None of these charges were due to transmission outages on the seam
25MMU
Rate pancaking
• Occurs when energy is scheduled across more than one transmission providers’ borders and each provider assess transmission charges
26MMU
Rate pancaking
• Analysis• Types of transmission used• Analyzed effects by modeling the reduction of
duplicated transmission charges between SPP and MISO
• Effects on production cost changes with redistribution of transmission charges
27MMU
Real-time transmission scheduled
Transmission service
type
SPP transmission MISO transmission
SPP imports
from MISO
SPP exports to
MISO
MISO imports
from SPP
MISO exports
to SPP
Firm* 66% 74% 67% 57%
MIS** / Spot-In 31% n/a 33% n/a
Non-firm Hourly 2% 18% 0% 42%
Non-firm Secondary 1% 8% 0% <1%
* Firm includes grandfathered service/agreements
** Market Import Service
28MMU
Estimated import/export change
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
Jul18
Aug18
Sep18
Oct18
Nov18
Dec18
Jan19
Feb19
Mar19
Apr19
May19
Jun19
Ave
rag
e ho
urly
exp
ort
MW
SPP to MISO increase MISO to SPP increase Net
29MMU
Estimated production cost change
$0
$100
$200
$300
Jul18
Aug18
Sep18
Oct18
Nov18
Dec18
Jan19
Feb19
Mar19
Apr19
May19
Jun19
Ave
rag
e ho
urly
co
st
Redistribution of transmission fees: exports SPP to MISORedistribution of transmission fees: imports MISO to SPPRedistribution of transmission fees: totalProduction cost change
30MMU
Notes
• Rate Pancaking and Unreserved Use Study found here; https://www.spp.org/Documents/60995/SPP%20MMU%20Rate%20Pancaking%20and%20Unreserved%20Use.pdf
31MMU
Questions?