Theory of Change. TOC is an overarching theoretical framework on “how and why something works” A...
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Transcript of Theory of Change. TOC is an overarching theoretical framework on “how and why something works” A...
Theory of Change TOC is an overarching theoretical framework
on “how and why something works”
A theory of change explains a process to reach a long-term goal and provides a pathway to change from starting point to final outcome
TOC is a process to gain stakeholders opinion and create consensus in the development of intervention
What are the elements of the ToC
Impact The real world change you are trying to affect. The program may contribute towards achieving this impact, and not achieve it solely on its own.
Long term outcome The final outcome the program is able to change on its own.
Preconditions Work backwards in logical steps that need to happen if the next preconditions or outcome is to be achieved.
Assumptions The uncertainties to be tested through formative research or implementation – often barriers.
Rationale The justification or existing evidence that suggests that one precondition will logically lead to the next
Indicators Things you can measure and document to determine whether you are making progress towards, or have achieved, each intermediate outcome.
Interventions/ key activities
What needs to be done to move from one outcome to the next. The different components of the program.
Ceiling of accountability
Line often drawn between impact and long term outcome.
Example ToC:Fruit consumption by children
Children want to eat fruit
Fruit is availableIn households
Increased fruit consumption by
children under 16 in households
• Increased fruit
consumption by children under 16 in
neighbourhood
Rationale: Research shows that increasing availability of fruit in households increases consumption
Assumption: Fruit is availablewhen children are hungry
Indicator:
Amount of fruit
consumed in
households/week
by children under
16
Intervention: increase
positive image of fruit amongst
children
TOC ProcessStep one: Determining long-term outcome
Step two: Developing pathway to change through pre-conditions
Step three: Defining interventions
Step four: Describing assumptions and indicators