The Work Programme in London: Progress to June

2013Paul Bivand

Inclusion

Comparison with earlier programmes

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

35.0%

38.9%

0.320561471825748

Work Programme JSA 25+ Flexible New DealNew Deal 25+ Employment Zones

Months from programme start

Work Programme performance measure (estimated)

Work Programme measuresDWP contractual measure – flawed in

concept but in contractsDWP Business Plan measures –

proportion with a Job Outcome within 12 and 24 months of starting – much better

Cohort performance – same method but for each month on programme – we’ve averaged all starters to simplify charts

DWP Business Plan measure shows improvement

Jun

2011

Jul 2

011

Aug

2011

Sep

2011

Oct 2

011

Nov 2

011

Dec 2

011

Jan

2012

Feb

2012

Mar

201

2

Apr 2

012

May

201

2

Jun

2012

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

12.1

12.8

West London East London GB

Cohort measure shows progress to 25 months not

just 12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 250

5

10

15

20

25

West London East London GB

Months since starting on programme

Pro

po

rtio

n w

ith

'jo

b o

utc

om

e'

0

5

10

15 0

5

10

15

20

Payment groups in London compared to GB

One chart per payment groupNot including ESA ex-IB, IS/IB

volunteers and Prison leavers as too few

Still, some groups so small that figures look odd

JSA 18-24

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 250

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

West London East London GB

Months since starting on programme

Pro

po

rtio

n w

ith

'jo

b o

utc

om

e'

JSA 25+

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 250

5

10

15

20

25

West London East London GB

Months since starting on programme

Pro

po

rtio

n w

ith

'jo

b o

utc

om

e'

JSA Early Entry

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 250

5

10

15

20

25

30

West London East London GB

Months since starting on programme

Pro

po

rtio

n w

ith

'jo

b o

utc

om

e'

JSA Ex-IB – too few to show London

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 250

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

GB

Months since starting on programme

Pro

po

rtio

n w

ith

'jo

b o

utc

om

e'

ESA Volunteers – too few to show London

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 250

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

GB

Months since starting on programme

Pro

po

rtio

n w

ith

'jo

b o

utc

om

e'

New ESA claimants

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 250

2

4

6

8

10

12

West London East London GB

Months since starting on programme

Pro

po

rtio

n w

ith

'jo

b o

utc

om

e'

01234567

ConclusionProgress being madeSevere financial pressureCohort charts may show providers

working to get the latest possible job outcome

First participants completed Work Programme in June 2013

Job Outcomes can be scored until 30 months from start so more job outcomes coming