The Urban Growth Management Initiative: Preliminary Results
-
Upload
oren-hamilton -
Category
Documents
-
view
25 -
download
0
description
Transcript of The Urban Growth Management Initiative: Preliminary Results
The Urban Growth The Urban Growth Management Initiative:Management Initiative:
Preliminary ResultsPreliminary Results
The Urban Growth The Urban Growth Management Initiative:Management Initiative:
Preliminary ResultsPreliminary Results
Daniel L. CivcoDaniel L. Civco andand AnnaAnna ChabaevaChabaeva Center for Land use Education And Research (CLEAR)Center for Land use Education And Research (CLEAR)
Natural Resources Management and EngineeringNatural Resources Management and EngineeringUniversity of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut
Shlomo AngelShlomo Angel Robert F. Wagner School of Public Service, New York Robert F. Wagner School of Public Service, New York
UniversityUniversityWoodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs, Woodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs,
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University
Stephen SheppardStephen Sheppard Department of Economics Department of Economics
Williams CollegeWilliams College
Daniel L. CivcoDaniel L. Civco andand AnnaAnna ChabaevaChabaeva Center for Land use Education And Research (CLEAR)Center for Land use Education And Research (CLEAR)
Natural Resources Management and EngineeringNatural Resources Management and EngineeringUniversity of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut
Shlomo AngelShlomo Angel Robert F. Wagner School of Public Service, New York Robert F. Wagner School of Public Service, New York
UniversityUniversityWoodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs, Woodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs,
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University
Stephen SheppardStephen Sheppard Department of Economics Department of Economics
Williams CollegeWilliams College
A project sponsored by the World Bank Urban Development DivisionA project sponsored by the World Bank Urban Development DivisionA project sponsored by the World Bank Urban Development DivisionA project sponsored by the World Bank Urban Development Division
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
2
BackgroundBackgroundBackgroundBackground The United Nation predicts that the The United Nation predicts that the
population ofpopulation of developing countriesdeveloping countries is is growing at an annual rate of 2.3%growing at an annual rate of 2.3%
Within 30 years, that population will Within 30 years, that population will double from 1.94 billion in 2000 to double from 1.94 billion in 2000 to 3.88 billion in 20303.88 billion in 2030
The The built environmentbuilt environment, however, will , however, will more than doublemore than double during this period during this period
Yet, there is little systematic data to Yet, there is little systematic data to estimate, let alone to explain, current estimate, let alone to explain, current and future levels of urban expansionand future levels of urban expansion
The United Nation predicts that the The United Nation predicts that the population ofpopulation of developing countriesdeveloping countries is is growing at an annual rate of 2.3%growing at an annual rate of 2.3%
Within 30 years, that population will Within 30 years, that population will double from 1.94 billion in 2000 to double from 1.94 billion in 2000 to 3.88 billion in 20303.88 billion in 2030
The The built environmentbuilt environment, however, will , however, will more than doublemore than double during this period during this period
Yet, there is little systematic data to Yet, there is little systematic data to estimate, let alone to explain, current estimate, let alone to explain, current and future levels of urban expansionand future levels of urban expansion
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
3
United Nations Urban Land United Nations Urban Land Management Initiative ObjectivesManagement Initiative Objectives
United Nations Urban Land United Nations Urban Land Management Initiative ObjectivesManagement Initiative Objectives
Study the causes and Study the causes and consequences of urban expansionconsequences of urban expansion
Prepare viable models of Prepare viable models of minimalist urban growth minimalist urban growth managementmanagement
Study the causes and Study the causes and consequences of urban expansionconsequences of urban expansion
Prepare viable models of Prepare viable models of minimalist urban growth minimalist urban growth managementmanagement
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
4
Urban Mapping ObjectivesUrban Mapping ObjectivesUrban Mapping ObjectivesUrban Mapping Objectives
Use moderate resolution satellite Use moderate resolution satellite remote sensing data to map the extent remote sensing data to map the extent of urban land for a sample of 120 cities of urban land for a sample of 120 cities around the worldaround the world Two time periodsTwo time periods Circa 1990 and 2000Circa 1990 and 2000
Provide complementary data for use in Provide complementary data for use in modeling and understanding the causes modeling and understanding the causes and consequences of urban expansionand consequences of urban expansion physical,physical, economic and demographic dataeconomic and demographic data
Use moderate resolution satellite Use moderate resolution satellite remote sensing data to map the extent remote sensing data to map the extent of urban land for a sample of 120 cities of urban land for a sample of 120 cities around the worldaround the world Two time periodsTwo time periods Circa 1990 and 2000Circa 1990 and 2000
Provide complementary data for use in Provide complementary data for use in modeling and understanding the causes modeling and understanding the causes and consequences of urban expansionand consequences of urban expansion physical,physical, economic and demographic dataeconomic and demographic data
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
5
Study CitiesStudy CitiesStudy CitiesStudy Cities A stratified sample of 120 cities was A stratified sample of 120 cities was
selected from a universe of 2,719 cities selected from a universe of 2,719 cities with metro-area population in excess of with metro-area population in excess of 100,000 in the year 2000100,000 in the year 2000
Three important characteristics were Three important characteristics were used to define the strata: used to define the strata: the world region in which the city is locatedthe world region in which the city is located city population sizecity population size its level of economic development, its level of economic development,
measured by national per capita incomemeasured by national per capita income The universe of cities was divided into The universe of cities was divided into
nine regions, four size categories, and nine regions, four size categories, and four per–capita income groupsfour per–capita income groups
A stratified sample of 120 cities was A stratified sample of 120 cities was selected from a universe of 2,719 cities selected from a universe of 2,719 cities with metro-area population in excess of with metro-area population in excess of 100,000 in the year 2000100,000 in the year 2000
Three important characteristics were Three important characteristics were used to define the strata: used to define the strata: the world region in which the city is locatedthe world region in which the city is located city population sizecity population size its level of economic development, its level of economic development,
measured by national per capita incomemeasured by national per capita income The universe of cities was divided into The universe of cities was divided into
nine regions, four size categories, and nine regions, four size categories, and four per–capita income groupsfour per–capita income groups
Study CitiesStudy CitiesStudy CitiesStudy Cities
The Universe of CitiesThe Universe of Cities The Sample of CitiesThe Sample of Cities
## Population 2000Population 2000 ## Population 2000Population 2000
RegionRegion of of CitiesCities
Total UrbanTotal Urban % of % of TotalTotal
of of CitiesCities
Total UrbanTotal Urban % of % of TotalTotal
11 EuropeEurope 624624 289,059,052289,059,052 15.9%15.9% 1616 58,094,85458,094,854 14.6%14.6%
22 East AsiaEast Asia 282282 315,465,095315,465,095 17.4%17.4% 1616 38,749,53738,749,537 9.8%9.8%
33 Latin America & Latin America & CaribbeanCaribbean
424424 262,457,151262,457,151 14.5%14.5% 1616 69,876,73269,876,732 17.6%17.6%
44 Northern AfricaNorthern Africa 6464 41,355,07141,355,071 2.3%2.3% 88 21,239,13321,239,133 5.4%5.4%
55 Other DevelopedOther Developed 401401 315,960,542315,960,542 17.4%17.4% 1616 66,958,99666,958,996 16.9%16.9%
66 South and Central South and Central AsiaAsia
346346 272,666,966272,666,966 15.0%15.0% 1616 67,992,64567,992,645 17.1%17.1%
77 South East AsiaSouth East Asia 188188 106,051,972106,051,972 5.8%5.8% 1212 36,940,78736,940,787 9.3%9.3%
88 Sub-Saharan AfricaSub-Saharan Africa 271271 136,977,906136,977,906 7.5%7.5% 1212 19,105,24319,105,243 4.8%4.8%
99 Western AsiaWestern Asia 119119 75,568,30075,568,300 4.2%4.2% 88 17,836,18317,836,183 4.5%4.5%
Total Urban 2000Total Urban 2000 2,7192,719 1,815,562,0551,815,562,055 100%100% 120120 396,794,110396,794,110 100.0%100.0%
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
7
Study CitiesStudy CitiesStudy CitiesStudy Cities
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
8
DataDataDataData Landsat TM and ETMLandsat TM and ETM
Circa 1990 and 2000Circa 1990 and 2000 Proximal to date of nearest censusProximal to date of nearest census Near anniversaryNear anniversary As cloud-free as possibleAs cloud-free as possible USGS Global Visualization Viewer USGS Global Visualization Viewer Earth Observing System Data GatewayEarth Observing System Data Gateway
EarthSat’s GeoCover Ortho EarthSat’s GeoCover Ortho Landsat TM ProductLandsat TM Product GeoCover-Ortho Stock Scenes GeoCover-Ortho Stock Scenes GeoCover-Ortho Custom ProjectionGeoCover-Ortho Custom Projection
Landsat TM and ETMLandsat TM and ETM Circa 1990 and 2000Circa 1990 and 2000 Proximal to date of nearest censusProximal to date of nearest census Near anniversaryNear anniversary As cloud-free as possibleAs cloud-free as possible USGS Global Visualization Viewer USGS Global Visualization Viewer Earth Observing System Data GatewayEarth Observing System Data Gateway
EarthSat’s GeoCover Ortho EarthSat’s GeoCover Ortho Landsat TM ProductLandsat TM Product GeoCover-Ortho Stock Scenes GeoCover-Ortho Stock Scenes GeoCover-Ortho Custom ProjectionGeoCover-Ortho Custom Projection
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
9
DataDataDataData
Moscow October 1991 Moscow October 2002
Administrative Units from the Center for International Earth Science Administrative Units from the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) of the Columbia University’s Earth InstituteInformation Network (CIESIN) of the Columbia University’s Earth Institute
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
10
DataDataDataData
Moscow October 1991 Moscow October 2002
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
11
DataDataDataData
GeoCover Landcover DataGeoCover Landcover DataGeoCover Landcover DataGeoCover Landcover Data Urban Growth Management Urban Growth Management InitiativeInitiative
Urban Growth Management Urban Growth Management InitiativeInitiative
Data Source: Landsat ETM, 5 January Data Source: Landsat ETM, 5 January 20002000
Addis Ababa, EtiopiaAddis Ababa, Etiopia
Data Source: Landsat ETM, 5 January Data Source: Landsat ETM, 5 January 20002000
Addis Ababa, EtiopiaAddis Ababa, Etiopia
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
12
DataDataDataData
GeoCover Landcover DataGeoCover Landcover DataGeoCover Landcover DataGeoCover Landcover Data Urban Growth Management Urban Growth Management InitiativeInitiative
Urban Growth Management Urban Growth Management InitiativeInitiative
Data Source: Landsat ETM, 21 May 2000Data Source: Landsat ETM, 21 May 2000
Tel Aviv, IsraelTel Aviv, IsraelData Source: Landsat ETM, 21 May 2000Data Source: Landsat ETM, 21 May 2000
Tel Aviv, IsraelTel Aviv, Israel
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
13
MethodsMethodsMethodsMethods
Cluster
Done?
T1 Image 50Clusters
Label &Recode
7 ClassesOnscreen
EditExtract
Confused
Recode
T2 Image
Mask
N
Y
T1
UrbanT2
Urban
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
14
MethodsMethodsMethodsMethods
MoscowMoscowMoscowMoscow
LandsatLandsatTT11
LandsatLandsatTT11
First Pass TFirst Pass T11 ClassificationClassificationFirst Pass TFirst Pass T11 ClassificationClassification
Landsat TLandsat T11 MaskMask
Landsat TLandsat T11 MaskMask
22ndnd PassT PassT11 ClassificatiClassificati
onon
22ndnd PassT PassT11 ClassificatiClassificati
onon
Final TFinal T11 ClassificatiClassificati
onon
Final TFinal T11 ClassificatiClassificati
onon
TT11 UrbanUrban
TT11 UrbanUrban
LandsatLandsatTT22
LandsatLandsatTT22
LandsatLandsatTT22
LandsatLandsatTT22
11stst Pass T Pass T22 ClassificatiClassificati
onon
11stst Pass T Pass T22 ClassificatiClassificati
onon
Landsat TLandsat T22 MaskMask
Landsat TLandsat T22 MaskMask
Final TFinal T22 ClassificatiClassificati
onon
Final TFinal T22 ClassificatiClassificati
onon
TT22 UrbanUrban
TT22 UrbanUrban
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
15
MethodsMethodsMethodsMethods
Moscow October 1991 Moscow October 2002
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
16
Results To DateResults To DateResults To DateResults To Date
Average time span between TAverage time span between T11 and T and T22
11.0 Years11.0 Years Minimum Annual Urban GrowthMinimum Annual Urban Growth
0.7 % 0.7 % (Astrakhan, Russia)(Astrakhan, Russia)
Maximum Annual Urban GrowthMaximum Annual Urban Growth 20.1 % 20.1 % (Yiyang, China)(Yiyang, China)
Mean Annual Urban GrowthMean Annual Urban Growth 4.8 %4.8 %
Median Annual Urban GrowthMedian Annual Urban Growth 3.3 %3.3 %
Average time span between TAverage time span between T11 and T and T22
11.0 Years11.0 Years Minimum Annual Urban GrowthMinimum Annual Urban Growth
0.7 % 0.7 % (Astrakhan, Russia)(Astrakhan, Russia)
Maximum Annual Urban GrowthMaximum Annual Urban Growth 20.1 % 20.1 % (Yiyang, China)(Yiyang, China)
Mean Annual Urban GrowthMean Annual Urban Growth 4.8 %4.8 %
Median Annual Urban GrowthMedian Annual Urban Growth 3.3 %3.3 %
Based on 86 CitiesBased on 86 CitiesBased on 86 CitiesBased on 86 Cities
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
17
Results To DateResults To DateResults To DateResults To Date
< 1 %
1 – 5%
5 – 10%
10 – 15 %
15 – 20%
> 20%
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
18
Urban GrowthUrban GrowthUrban GrowthUrban Growth
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
% A
nn
ua
l Urb
an
Gro
wth
36 of 86 / 42 %36 of 86 / 42 %36 of 86 / 42 %36 of 86 / 42 %22 of 8622 of 86
26 %26 %22 of 8622 of 86
26 %26 %
17 of 8617 of 8620 %20 %
17 of 8617 of 8620 %20 %
11 11 OfOf8686
13%13%
11 11 OfOf8686
13%13%
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
19
Urban GrowthUrban GrowthUrban GrowthUrban Growth0 to 3 Percent Annual Urban Growth
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
As
tra
kh
an
Pa
lerm
o
Kin
gs
ton
Bu
en
os
Air
es
Se
ou
l
Sh
eff
ield
To
ky
o
Ch
ica
go
Pa
ris
Pit
tsb
urg
h
Mil
an
o
Sh
imk
en
t
Pre
tori
a
Le
Ma
ns
Ok
tya
brs
ky
Lo
nd
on
Jo
ha
nn
es
bu
rg
Rib
eir
ao
Pre
to
Mo
nte
vid
eo
Be
ijin
g
As
wa
n
Ce
bu
Bu
da
pe
st
Sa
o P
ao
lo
Sa
nti
ag
o
Pu
sa
n
Th
es
sa
lon
iki
Ph
ila
de
lph
ia
Sy
dn
ey
Sa
n S
alv
ad
or
St.
Ca
the
rin
es
Ca
ste
llo
n d
e l
a P
lan
a
Va
lle
du
pa
r
Me
xic
o C
ity
Ca
sa
bla
nc
a
Cin
cin
na
ti
City
% A
nn
ua
l Urb
an
Gro
wth
36 of 86
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
20
Urban GrowthUrban GrowthUrban GrowthUrban Growth3.1 to 5 Percent Annual Urban Growth
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
Sin
gap
ore
Ula
n-B
ato
r
Mad
rid
Tac
om
a
Ho
ust
on
Ad
dis
Ab
aba
Ho
ng
Ko
ng
War
szaw
a
Mu
mb
ai
Gu
adal
ajar
a
Cai
ro
Car
acas
Mo
sco
w
Mo
des
to
Ch
ang
zhi
Min
nea
po
lis
An
san
Kan
pu
r
Ban
du
ng
San
aa
Gu
atem
ala
Cit
y
Ilheu
s
City
% A
nn
ua
l Urb
an
Gro
wth
22 of 86
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
21
Urban GrowthUrban GrowthUrban GrowthUrban Growth5.1 to 10 Percent Annual Urban Growth
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
Wie
n
An
qin
g
Zu
gd
idi
Me
tro
Ma
nil
a
Dh
ak
a
Ch
on
an
Fu
ku
ok
a
Ba
ng
ko
k
Ba
ma
ko
Zh
en
gzh
ou
Ch
inju
Je
qu
ie
Sp
rin
gfi
eld
Te
l A
viv
-Ja
ffa
Ja
ipu
r
Ou
ga
do
ug
ou
Le
sh
an
City
% A
nn
ua
l Urb
an
Gro
wth
17 of 86
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
22
Urban GrowthUrban GrowthUrban GrowthUrban GrowthGreater than 10 Percent Annual Urban Growth
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
Le
ipzi
g
Ja
lna
Ac
cra
Pa
lem
ba
ng
Kig
ali
Gu
an
zho
u
Ho
Ch
i M
inh
Cit
y
Ba
co
lod
Pu
na
Yu
lin
Yiy
an
g
City
% A
nn
ua
l Urb
an
Gro
wth
11 of 86
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
23
Urban Growth ExamplesUrban Growth ExamplesUrban Growth ExamplesUrban Growth ExamplesYiyang July 1994Yiyang July 1994Yiyang September 1999Yiyang September 1999Yiyang July 1994Yiyang July 1994Yiyang September 1999Yiyang September 1999
16 km
Yiyang Urban Growth: July 1994–September Yiyang Urban Growth: July 1994–September 19991999104 % Total / 20.1 % Per Annum104 % Total / 20.1 % Per Annum
Yiyang,Yiyang,ChinaChinaYiyang,Yiyang,ChinaChina
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
24
Urban Growth ExamplesUrban Growth ExamplesUrban Growth ExamplesUrban Growth Examples
16 km
Leipzig July 1989Leipzig July 1989Leipzig September 1999Leipzig September 1999Leipzig July 1989Leipzig July 1989Leipzig September 1999Leipzig September 1999Leipzig Urban Growth: July 1989–September Leipzig Urban Growth: July 1989–September 19991999104 % Total / 10.2 % Per Annum104 % Total / 10.2 % Per Annum
Leipzig,Leipzig,GermanyGermanyLeipzig,Leipzig,GermanyGermany
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
25
Urban Growth ExamplesUrban Growth ExamplesUrban Growth ExamplesUrban Growth Examples
64 km
Houston December 1990Houston December 1990Houston October 1999Houston October 1999Houston December 1990Houston December 1990Houston October 1999Houston October 1999Houston Urban Growth: December-October Houston Urban Growth: December-October 1999 1999 29 % Total / 3.3 % Per Annum29 % Total / 3.3 % Per Annum
Houston,Houston,TexasTexasHouston,Houston,TexasTexas
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
26
Urban Growth ExamplesUrban Growth ExamplesUrban Growth ExamplesUrban Growth ExamplesYulin October 1991Yulin October 1991Yulin October 2000Yulin October 2000Yulin October 1991Yulin October 1991Yulin October 2000Yulin October 2000Yulin Urban Growth: October 1991-October 2000 Yulin Urban Growth: October 1991-October 2000
142 % Total / 15.8 % Per Annum142 % Total / 15.8 % Per Annum
16 km
Yulin,Yulin,ChinaChinaYulin,Yulin,ChinaChina
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
27
Preliminary Accuracy Preliminary Accuracy AssessmentAssessment
Preliminary Accuracy Preliminary Accuracy AssessmentAssessment
ClassClass
RefereRefere
ncenceClassifieClassifie
ddNumbeNumbe
rrProducerProducer
ss UsersUsers
NameName TotalsTotals TotalsTotals CorrectCorrect AccuracyAccuracy AccuracyAccuracy
Non-Non-urbanurban 193193 180180 167167 86.5%86.5% 92.8%92.8%
UrbanUrban 167167 180180 154154 92.2%92.2% 85.6%85.6%
TotalsTotals 360360 360360 321321 89.2%89.2% OMAOMA
Overall Kappa0.8417Overall Kappa0.8417
12 City Sample of 12 City Sample of TT11 Classifications Classifications12 City Sample of 12 City Sample of TT11 Classifications Classifications
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
28
Preliminary Accuracy Preliminary Accuracy AssessmentAssessment
Preliminary Accuracy Preliminary Accuracy AssessmentAssessment
ClassClass
RefereRefere
ncenceClassifieClassifie
ddNumbeNumbe
rrProducerProducer
ss UsersUsers
NameName TotalsTotals TotalsTotals CorrectCorrect AccuracyAccuracy AccuracyAccuracy
Non-Non-urbanurban 189189 174174 162162 85.7%85.7% 93.1%93.1%
UrbanUrban 171171 186186 159159 93.0%93.0% 85.5%85.5%
TotalsTotals 360360 360360 321321 89.2%89.2% OMAOMA
Overall Kappa0.8160Overall Kappa0.8160
12 City Sample of T2 Classifications12 City Sample of T2 Classifications
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
29
ObservationsObservationsObservationsObservations The Urban Growth Management The Urban Growth Management
Initiative: Initiative: Confronting the Expected Confronting the Expected Doubling of the Size of Cities in Doubling of the Size of Cities in Developing Countries in the Next Thirty Developing Countries in the Next Thirty YearsYears
Recent UN PredictionsRecent UN Predictions 6.5 to 9.1 Billion Humans in Next 50 Years6.5 to 9.1 Billion Humans in Next 50 Years
The Urban Growth Management The Urban Growth Management Initiative: Initiative: Confronting the Expected Confronting the Expected Doubling of the Size of Cities in Doubling of the Size of Cities in Developing Countries in the Next Thirty Developing Countries in the Next Thirty YearsYears
Recent UN PredictionsRecent UN Predictions 6.5 to 9.1 Billion Humans in Next 50 Years6.5 to 9.1 Billion Humans in Next 50 YearsNumber of Number of
PeoplePeopleHousing and Housing and
ServicesServicesUrban Urban AreaArea
Between 100% Between 100% and 144%and 144%over the over the
next 30 yearsnext 30 years
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
30
Current StatusCurrent StatusCurrent StatusCurrent Status
100 + Metropolitan Areas Fully 100 + Metropolitan Areas Fully ClassifiedClassified TT11 and T and T22
Change Analysis Performed for Change Analysis Performed for 8686
Accuracy Assessment Accuracy Assessment Conducted on 10%Conducted on 10%
100 + Metropolitan Areas Fully 100 + Metropolitan Areas Fully ClassifiedClassified TT11 and T and T22
Change Analysis Performed for Change Analysis Performed for 8686
Accuracy Assessment Accuracy Assessment Conducted on 10%Conducted on 10%
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
31
FutureFutureFutureFuture Completion of all 120 cities Completion of all 120 cities (by end of March)(by end of March)
Establish present global norms of urban Establish present global norms of urban land growth for different types of citiesland growth for different types of cities
Examine land consumption and urban Examine land consumption and urban povertypoverty overcrowding, access to piped water and overcrowding, access to piped water and
sewerage, and access to home ownershipsewerage, and access to home ownership Investigate physical constraints to urban Investigate physical constraints to urban
growthgrowth Elevation, slope, terrain ruggedness, Elevation, slope, terrain ruggedness,
water barrierswater barriers Develop enhancements to urban land cover Develop enhancements to urban land cover
classification and characterizationclassification and characterization Make data available on the WebMake data available on the Web
Completion of all 120 cities Completion of all 120 cities (by end of March)(by end of March)
Establish present global norms of urban Establish present global norms of urban land growth for different types of citiesland growth for different types of cities
Examine land consumption and urban Examine land consumption and urban povertypoverty overcrowding, access to piped water and overcrowding, access to piped water and
sewerage, and access to home ownershipsewerage, and access to home ownership Investigate physical constraints to urban Investigate physical constraints to urban
growthgrowth Elevation, slope, terrain ruggedness, Elevation, slope, terrain ruggedness,
water barrierswater barriers Develop enhancements to urban land cover Develop enhancements to urban land cover
classification and characterizationclassification and characterization Make data available on the WebMake data available on the Web
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
32
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgmentsAcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
Dr. Robert BuckleyDr. Robert Buckley The Transport and Urban Development The Transport and Urban Development
Department, Urban Development Division, Department, Urban Development Division, World BankWorld Bank
Williams College StudentsWilliams College Students Tomoko Harigaya, Wei Wang, Vladimir Tomoko Harigaya, Wei Wang, Vladimir
Andonov, Syed Kashif Akhtar, Victoria Andonov, Syed Kashif Akhtar, Victoria Wolff, Peng (Bruce) Ou, Timothy CrawleyWolff, Peng (Bruce) Ou, Timothy Crawley
CLEAR Staff and Graduate StudentsCLEAR Staff and Graduate Students Jason Parent, Scott Bighinatti, James HurdJason Parent, Scott Bighinatti, James Hurd
Dr. Robert BuckleyDr. Robert Buckley The Transport and Urban Development The Transport and Urban Development
Department, Urban Development Division, Department, Urban Development Division, World BankWorld Bank
Williams College StudentsWilliams College Students Tomoko Harigaya, Wei Wang, Vladimir Tomoko Harigaya, Wei Wang, Vladimir
Andonov, Syed Kashif Akhtar, Victoria Andonov, Syed Kashif Akhtar, Victoria Wolff, Peng (Bruce) Ou, Timothy CrawleyWolff, Peng (Bruce) Ou, Timothy Crawley
CLEAR Staff and Graduate StudentsCLEAR Staff and Graduate Students Jason Parent, Scott Bighinatti, James HurdJason Parent, Scott Bighinatti, James Hurd
The Urban Growth Management Initiative March 9, 2005, ASPRS, Baltimore, MD
33
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgmentsAcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
University of Connecticut Students from Fall 2004 NRME 237 Introductory Remote Sensing
The Urban Growth The Urban Growth Management Initiative:Management Initiative:
Preliminary ResultsPreliminary Results
The Urban Growth The Urban Growth Management Initiative:Management Initiative:
Preliminary ResultsPreliminary Results
A project sponsored by the World Bank Urban Development DivisionA project sponsored by the World Bank Urban Development DivisionA project sponsored by the World Bank Urban Development DivisionA project sponsored by the World Bank Urban Development Division
Daniel L. CivcoDaniel L. Civco andand AnnaAnna ChabaevaChabaeva Center for Land use Education And Research (CLEAR)Center for Land use Education And Research (CLEAR)
Natural Resources Management and EngineeringNatural Resources Management and EngineeringUniversity of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut
Shlomo AngelShlomo Angel Robert F. Wagner School of Public Service, New York Robert F. Wagner School of Public Service, New York
UniversityUniversityWoodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs, Woodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs,
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University
Stephen SheppardStephen Sheppard Department of Economics Department of Economics
Williams CollegeWilliams College
Daniel L. CivcoDaniel L. Civco andand AnnaAnna ChabaevaChabaeva Center for Land use Education And Research (CLEAR)Center for Land use Education And Research (CLEAR)
Natural Resources Management and EngineeringNatural Resources Management and EngineeringUniversity of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut
Shlomo AngelShlomo Angel Robert F. Wagner School of Public Service, New York Robert F. Wagner School of Public Service, New York
UniversityUniversityWoodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs, Woodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs,
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University
Stephen SheppardStephen Sheppard Department of Economics Department of Economics
Williams CollegeWilliams College