The Sustainable Development Oxymoron: Quantifying and

Modelling the Incompatibility of Sustainable Development Goals

ViktoriaSpaiserShyamRanganathanRanjulaBaliSwainDavidJ.T.Sumpter

SustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDG)

Data(RevoluBon)forSDGs

*

*WorldBankDataAPI

1432economic,social,poliBcalandenvironmentalindicators,217countries,years1980-2013,

finallyused233indicators

AreSDGsconsistent?

CO2.emissions

Air.PollutionProtected.Land

Education

Women.Parliament

Child.Mortality

Water

GINI

Hunger

Violence

Internet

Protected.Sea

SanitationPovertyAlternative.Energy

Unemployment.Youth

−1.0

−0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

−1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0Factor Dimension 1

Fact

or D

imen

sion

2

20406080

A

AreSDGsconsistent?EFA-suggestedmodel,CFAconfirmed:

Development(Factor Dimension 1)

CM Pov Hun Wat* San* Ed* Int* CO2 AP

Vio

.90 .91 .73 .90 .92.93 .60 .30

.78 .68

-.53

Inequality & Violence(Factor Dimension 2)

GINI

B

ModelLatentVariable(L),byCFA

CFAfactorscoresforLusedtocreateModelLatentVariableL (LatentVariable1)

SDL

CMEdu

CO2

.821 .981 -.531

ProporBonVariance:.73

R2=.673R2=.961

R2=.282

ModelFitsCFA:CFI:.973;TLI:.931;RMSEA:.031;SRMR:.063

CO2.e

mission

s

Education

Child.Mortality

−2

0

2

4

−2 0 2Factor Dimension 1

Fact

or D

imen

sion

2

FindingpredicBvemodels

Method

1.  FeatureSelecBon:VariableEliminaBonAlgorithm,usingEnsemblePLS,

accounBngfornonlineariBesèbestpredictors2.Data-drivenDynamicalSystemsModeling:

ModelCombinaBonApproach&BayesianModelSelecBonwithbestpredictorsselectedbyFeatureSelecBonAlgorithm,iteraBve

Data-drivenDynamicalSystemsModeling

ModelSelec+on:1.LogLikelihood(pre-selecBon):2.BayesFactor(finalselecBon):athigherorderiteraBonstepsonlyBayesFactor

ModelCombina+onApproach:CombinaBonofincreasingcomplexity(numberofterms)ofpolynomialterms

Net foreign assets

GD

P pe

r cap

ita

2 4 6

6

8

10

−0.5

0

0.5

Net foreign assetsFe

rtilit

y ra

te

2 4 6

2

4

6

8 −0.5

0

0.5

Womens economic rights

Inde

pend

ent J

udic

ary

0 1 2 3

0

0.5

1

1.5

2 −0.5

0

0.5

Natural Depletion

SDL

0 2 4

5

10

15

−0.3

−0.28

−0.26

−0.24

−0.22

Best-fitModelsforchangeofL

D: Net foreign assets (indebtedness) G: GDP per capita Fr: Fertility rate Rf: Women’s economic rights J: Independence of Judicary Nd: Natural depletion costs

FactorscontribuBngtoincompaBbilityFactorsshowingawayout

G: GDP per capita C: Final consumption expenditure Fr: Fertility rate Er: Renewable energy production M: Measles immunication Nd: Natural depletion costs Wg: Government spending Em: Particulate emission damage

DynamicalSystemsModelsforthethreepillars1.  EndPoverty(ModelforchangesinChildMortality):

2.  Socio-economicinclusion(ModelforchangesinEducaBon):

3.  Environment(ModelforchangesinCO2emissions):

SDG index 1

−0.6 1

MonitoringSustainableDevelopment

BasedonLmodel

TheSDGindexvs.HDIandGDPSDGindex1predicts HDIpredicts GDPpercapitapredicts

54%ofchangesinchildmortality

41%ofchangesinchildmortality

17%ofchangesinchildmortality

6%ofchangesineducaBon 4%ofchangesineducaBon 2%ofchangesineducaBon

21%ofchangesinCO2emissions

0.7%ofchangesinCO2emissions

0.4%ofchangesinCO2emissions

16%ofchangesinL 7%ofchangesinL 4%ofchangesinL

FormoreinformaBon…

WorkingPaperonSSRN:hgp://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2766875