Nora Kreml

The Sudanese Referendum

Military regime since 1956North

National Congress Party (NCP)Arab Muslim

SouthSudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM)Largely Christian

2 civil wars 1956-19721983-2004SEPARATE FROM DARFUR

Peace Talks 2002-2004

History

Goal of achieving a peaceful SudanEstablished a formal ceasefireAllowed for the first competitive elections

since 1986Ended 20 years of civil war

Over 2.5 million deadOver 4 million displaced

South given autonomy for 6 yearsReferendum as end result

Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)

January 9, 2011Split the South and the

North into two separate states

Would be newest state in Africa since 1993

Many incentives for passing the referendumUS agricultural aidRemoval from terrorist

sponsor list

Referendum

Khartoum does not want the splitMany attempts to disrupt the process through

intimidation Desire for oil resources to remain with the

governmentPromoting the idea of a chaotic, unruly SouthAl-Bashir’s personal stake

Voter intimidationThreats“Cut off their fingers and crush them under our shoes.”

Discouraging the SouthFears of violence during interim periodUnilateral Declaration of Independence not desired

The Khartoum Problem

Humanitarian intervention No oppression by opposition leadership

Prevention of further civil warSuppression of new conflict

Sudan is a vital source for oilKhartoum does not want the split

Many attempts to disrupt the process through intimidation

Want to maintain control over the southern oil region

Why should we lend support?

Peacekeepers may not be accepted, but are necessaryNeeded to prevent registration fraud

Ink and location issues

UN is monitoringObama already supports the referendumIn a win-lose situation, always accept a win

Solution