The Shape of Things to Come: Incorporating Unproven...
Transcript of The Shape of Things to Come: Incorporating Unproven...
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The Shape of Things to Come: Incorporating Unproven Reserves of
Efficiency Savings into Energy Models
Bruce Biewald
Presentation to East Coast Energy GroupWashington, DC; November 10, 2004
22 Pearl StreetCambridge, MA 02139617.661.3248 [email protected]
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Synapse Energy Economics
1. Marginal costs influence behavior2. The shape of CSE curves matters3. Unproven efficiency reserves are typically
ignored4. Unproven oil and gas reserves are not
ignored5. Research is needed to characterize
technological change and unproven efficiency reserves
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Synapse Energy Economics
Prices for US Electricity, Gas, Oil (nominal $)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1019
70
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
cent
s/kW
h
Residential Electricity Price
Industrial Electricity Price
Petroleum (at 10,000 Btu/kWh)Natural Gas (at 10,000 Btu/kWh)
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Synapse Energy Economics
Regional Clean Energy Plans
These reports are available on the web: www.repowermidwest.orgwww.poweringthesouth.orgwww.westernresourceadvocates.org/energy/bep.html
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Synapse Energy Economics
Xenergy, Generic curve
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Synapse Energy Economics
CSE Curve Data
• Xenergy, Generic curve• Solar Energy Research
Institute, 1981, US• Interlaboratory
Working Group on Energy-Efficient and Low-Carbon Technologies, 1997, US
• Tellus, 2002, Pacific NW
• American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State (4)
• Marbek Resource Consultants and Willis Energy Services, 2003, British Columbia (2)
• LBL, 1999, US• SERI, 1981, US
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Synapse Energy Economics
CSE Curve Data
• LBL, 1995, US• Amory Lovins, 1989, US• Optimal, 2003, New
York State• Xenergy, 2002,
California• Hewlett Energy
Foundation, 2002, California
• Northwest Power and Conservation Council, 2002, Pacific NW
• Tellus, 2001, Interior West
• Tellus, 2001, Pacific NW• Tellus, 2001, Utah• NYSERDA, 2003, New
York State (2)
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Synapse Energy Economics
Solar Energy Research Institute, 1981, US
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Synapse Energy Economics
Interlaboratory Working Group on Energy-Efficient and Low-Carbon Technologies, 1997, US
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Synapse Energy Economics
Tellus, 2002, Pacific NW
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Synapse Energy Economics
American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State
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Synapse Energy Economics
American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State
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Synapse Energy Economics
American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State
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Synapse Energy Economics
American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State
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Synapse Energy Economics
Marbek Resource Consultants and Willis Energy Services, 2003, British Columbia
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Synapse Energy Economics
Marbek Resource Consultants and Willis Energy Services, 2003, British Columbia
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Synapse Energy Economics
LBL, 1999, US
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Synapse Energy Economics
SERI, 1981, US
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Synapse Energy Economics
LBL, 1995, US
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Synapse Energy Economics
Amory Lovins, 1989, US
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Synapse Energy Economics
Optimal, 2003, New York State
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Synapse Energy Economics
Xenergy, 2002, California
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Synapse Energy Economics
Hewlett Energy Foundation, 2002, California
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Synapse Energy Economics
Northwest Power and Conservation Council, 2002, Pacific NW
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Synapse Energy Economics
Tellus, 2001, Interior West
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Synapse Energy Economics
Tellus, 2001, Pacific NW
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Synapse Energy Economics
Tellus, 2001, Utah
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Synapse Energy Economics
NYSERDA, 2003, New York State
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Synapse Energy Economics
NYSERDA, 2003, New York State
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Synapse Energy Economics
EIA
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Synapse Energy Economics
EIA
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Synapse Energy Economics
Hydrocarbon Resource Classification
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Synapse Energy Economics
US Oil and Gas (as of 1/1/2002)Crude Oil
(billion barrels)
Natural Gas (trillion
cubic feet)Undiscovered 56 222Inferred 49 232Unconventional and assoc. gas NA 611Total lower 48 unproved 105 1064Alaska 24 32Total unproved 130 1096Proven reserves 24 183Total technically recoverable 154 1279
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Synapse Energy Economics
Oil and Gas MathUndiscovered
+ Inferred+ Proven reserves Geological and engineering data
demonstrate with reasonable certainty to be recoverable from know reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions
= Technically recoverable reserves
Producible using current technology but without reference to economic profitability
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Synapse Energy Economics
IEA Regional Shares
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Synapse Energy Economics
Proven Reserves by Region
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Synapse Energy Economics
Ultimately Recoverable
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Synapse Energy Economics
World Original Resource Base
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Synapse Energy Economics
Annual Production Scenarios
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Synapse Energy Economics
Ultimately Recoverable Oil
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Synapse Energy Economics
Gas Price Forecasts Since 1975
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Synapse Energy Economics
Generic CSE curve corrected
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Synapse Energy Economics
Research Ideas
• Analysis of CSE curves – past projections v. what actually happened
• Identify reasons for upturn in CSE price• Characterize reasons and quantify to the
extent possible – by technology.• Apply concepts from oil and gas reserves?