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The Seismic Hazard Modeller’s Toolkit: An Open-Source Library for the Construction of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Models
Graeme Weatherill1, Luis E. Rodríguez-Abreu2, Marco Pagani3
August 25th 2014, 2ECEES, Istanbul, Turkey
1 Hazard Scientist, Global Earthquake Model (GEM), Pavia, Italy, 2 PhD Student, Understanding & Managing Extremes (UME) School, Pavia, Italy3 Hazard Coordinator, Global Earthquake Model (GEM), Pavia, Italy
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Ground motion prediction equations
The challenge to build seismic hazard models
Definition Seismic sources geometry
Processing Geologic InformationGeodetic DataSeismic Catalogues
Selection
Seismic hazard model
PSHA
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The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) has produced an open-source toolkit for
construction of seismogenic source models as input for PSHA.
The Hazard Modeller’s Toolkit, the GEM library for the creation of PSHA models
Seismic hazard model
SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS
Hazard modeller’s toolkit
hazardlibnmrllib
Python 2.7 library
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The Hazard Modeller’s Toolkit, a library for the creation of PSHA models
https://github.com/GEMScienceTools/hmtk https://github.com/GEMScienceTools/hmtk_docs
Public and available Documented
Under GNU Affero license
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GEM-hmtk is an integrated visualization and analysis tool
HMTK
Modules with
methods and tools
Python
Interface(i.e. iPython Notebook)
Seismogenic
Model
hazardlibnmrllib
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Seismicity tools
Data CataloguesArea source geometry
Methods
• Declustering• Completeness• Recurrence• Maximum magnitude
(statistics)
a and b-values, seismic ratesSeismic model
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Seismicity tools
Data CataloguesRegion of interest
Methods• Declustering• Completeness• Smoothed seismicity
a-value, seismic ratesSeismic model
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Seismicity tools
Sources
Catalogues
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SourcesCatalogues
• Statistical analysis
• Parameters
estimation
Seismicity tools
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Example: Estimation of b-value variation along South America using the hmtk
Slab1.0 (Hayes et al., 2012)
Flexibility to combine and explore data.
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Geology tools
Active faults sourcesTectonic regionalization
Fault definition
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Geology tools
Data Fault geometrySlip rate
Methods Recurrence methods
Magnitude Frequency distribution
Seismic model
• Youngs and Coppersmith (exponential)
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Geology tools
Data Fault geometrySlip rate
Methods Recurrence methods
Magnitude Frequency distribution
Seismic model
• Youngs and Coppersmith (exponential)• Youngs and Coppersmith (hybrid)
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Geology tools
Data Fault geometrySlip rate
Methods Recurrence methods
Magnitude Frequency distribution
• Youngs and Coppersmith (exponential)• Youngs and Coppersmith (hybrid)• Characteristic
Seismic model
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Geology tools
Catalogue InstrumentalCatalogue HistoricalGeology
Seismicity
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Geology tools
Recurrence methods
Magnitude Frequency distribution
Epistemic uncertainties in the fault modeling
• Slip rate• Magnitude scaling relation (SR)• Shear modulus • Displacement to length ratio • No. of standard deviation in the SR • Configuration of magnitude
frequency distribution
Catalogue InstrumentalCatalogue Historical
Logic three MFD1
MFD2
MFD3
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Geodetic tools
Strain rate modelTectonic regionalization
Moment rate model
Kreemer et al., 2003; 2014
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Geodetic tools
Data Strain rate modelTectonic regionalization
Methods Moment rate model
Activity ratesSeismic model
• Bird and Liu, 2007
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Conclusions
Hazard modeller’s toolkit:
• Data integration
• Consistent with OQ-engine
• Understand the impact on the methods
• Makes the PSHA model building process more transparent and reproducible
Selection Ground motion prediction equationsStrong motion
toolkit
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Strong Motion Toolkit
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Strong Motion Toolkit
https://github.com/g-weatherill/gmpe-smtk https://github.com/g-weatherill/gmpe-smtk-docs
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Strong Motion Toolkit: GMPE comparison
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Strong Motion Toolkit
Includes:• Log-Likelihood (Scherbaum
et al. , 2009)• Euclidean Distance-Based
Ranking (Kale & Akker, 2013)
Random effects residuals
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Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under: creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to - www.globalearthquakemodel.org